Eric Siegel. Predictive Analytics: thePower to Predict Who will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die. Hoboken, NJ, USA: John Wiley& Sons, 2013.

[中文版][美]埃里克·西格尔著. 大数据预测：告诉你谁会点击、购买、死去或撒谎. 周昕译. 北京：中信出版社，2014.(从学院图书资料室获得)

开始阅读：2017-01-22

结束阅读：2017-02-03

【书籍情况】中文纸质版，英文原版电子版。

【原文摘录】

Contagious:

TargetingDirect Marketing: 精准营销

BenjaminFranklin forgot to include it when he proclaimed, “Nothing can be said to becertain, except death and taxes.” P22

Hereceived his answer form the investor: “Go for it!” This meant there wasnothing to prevent moving forward.

Rollercoaster: 公园中的过山车.

Anarrow focus is key to the success of many businesses, but Elder Research’sadvantage is quite the opposite: its diversity. P35

Thesystem informs what factors drive employee attrition, empowering managers todevelop more robust strategies to retain their staffs in order to reduce costsand maintain business continuity.

Philosophicalconundrum: 哲学难题英P57.

Thecompany’s purposes are altruistic. (英P65).Altruistic: feelings and behavior that show a desire to help other people and alack of selfishness.

Geniusis one percent inspiration, ninety-nine percent perspiration. ---Thomas Edison.P73.

Themass migration of online applications from your desktop up into the cloud (akasoftware as a service) make even more of your computer use recordable byorganizations. P75.

Ananalysis of bank data of suspected terrorists revealed a propensity to not holda life insurance policy. P85. Propensity: a strong natural tendency to dosomething.

Inthis way, data scientists have it easier with PA. It just needs to work;prediction trumps explanation. P90.

Ourthinking is malleable---people readily find underlying theories to explain justabout everything. P91.

Karriewas, after all, advising Eric within a more erudite field of research, social computing, the examination ofhuman social behavior within a computer science framework. People’s behaviorsare observed on computer networks, and computation serves to analyze thatbehavior. You can think of it as electronicsociology. P99

Hedgingthese bushes follows the principle known as Occam’s razor: Seek the simplestexplanation for the data available. P128.

Inthis way, Jeopardy! Reflects a general principle of life and business: You neednot do everything well; select the tasks at which you excel. P176.

【读后感】

中文版对messup(中Pxxvi，英P7)的翻译有问题。

Forexample, employees with higher salaries, more raises, and increased performanceratings quit less. (P48). 此句中的“performance”在薪酬管理领域应翻译成“绩效”，而不是中文版中的“表现”。看来该翻译者不具有人力资源管理背景。

我发现有些英文单词的翻译确实比较难。比如detour，在该书中文版翻译成“迂回”（中P11），而在英英词典里根本不是这个意思。所以，学习英文的时候不要偷懒，要看英英词典。

这本书没有过多地提到大数据，与中文标题的大数据预测没什么关系；而是过多地讲解了预测分析的各种各样的预测场景，预测分析的各种模型。最后，指出未来预测分析的方向。是一本预测分析方面的科普读物。作者对该领域有透彻的理解和感悟，知识面比较宽。