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[转载]太阳风暴会对我们的城市产生什么影响？
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太阳风暴的威胁笼罩着我们习以为常的科技生活。但是，太阳风暴会对城市产生怎样的影响呢？与科技含量较低的城镇不同，城市与当地食物网络的连接在人类距离之内，最大的挑战将是为城市居民提供食物。尽管从长远来看，每个人都会受到影响。评估停电的潜在影响和太阳爆发活动的影响对于有效的应急管理至关重要，但保持冷静的心态也很重要。
The threat of a solar storm looms over the technological lives we have become accustomed to. But, how would it affect cities? Unlike less technological towns connected to local food networks within human distances, the greatest challenge would be feeding the urbanites. Although, in the long term, everyone would be affected. Assessing the potential impacts of a blackout and the impact of solar eruption activity is essential for effective emergency management, but it is important to maintain a calm mindset.
什么是太阳超级风暴？
WHAT IS A SOLAR SUPERSTORM?
太阳风暴是太阳地磁风暴与地球磁场相互作用的一种相对频繁的现象。这种现象可能由太阳风冲击波或日冕物质抛射（CME）引起。太阳超级风暴的频率较低，是后者的一种特别剧烈的情况。
A solar storm is a relatively frequent event in which a solar geomagnetic storm interacts with the earth’s magnetic field. This phenomenon may be caused by a solar wind shock wave, or by a coronal mass ejection (CME). A solar superstorm, which is less frequent, is a particularly violent case of the latter.
太阳耀斑有什么危害？
WHAT IS THE DANGER OF A SOLAR FLARE?
日冕物质抛射，又称太阳耀斑，在地球外是危险的，因为它是一种辐射和太阳风波（带电粒子）。如果没有地球内部的金属流体在旋转时产生的电磁场保护我们的星球，这种 "冲击 "是致命的。但有时地球上也能感受到它的影响。
A coronal mass ejection, also known as a solar flare, is dangerous outside of the planet because it is a radiation and solar wind wave (charged particles). Without the electromagnetic fields that protect our planet generated by the metal fluid inside the planet when rotating, this ‘impact’ is deadly. But sometimes its effects are even felt on Earth.
然而，重要的是要停下来思考一下这些耀斑撞击我们的可能性。首先，地球距离太阳有 1.5 亿千米，要让这样的耀斑撞击到我们，耀斑必须与我们的轨道重合，而地球必须在耀斑到达时穿过我们的轨道。这种可能性不大，但并非不可能。
It is important, however, to stop and think about the probabilities of one of these flares impacting us. Firstly, the Earth is located 150 million kilometers from the Sun, and for something like that to reach us, the ejection would have to coincide with our path, which the planet would have to cross just as the ejection reached it. This is unlikely, but not impossible.
太阳风暴会对我们的城市造成什么影响？
WHAT WOULD A SOLAR STORM DO TO OUR CITIES?
太阳风暴造成的电力损失可与大停电和互联网全面中断相媲美。虽然它们相互依存，但由于系统会同时受到影响，而且两个系统都需要部分重建，因此将它们分开处理。
A solar storm could cause electrical damage comparable to a general blackout, and a total Internet outage. Although they are interdependent, they are treated separately because the system would affect both and both systems would need to be partially rebuilt.
显然，城市尤其脆弱。没有电就没有互联网，但现在，没有互联网也就没有电。恢复工作需要由合格的技术人员分区域同时进行，而且需要时间。
Obviously, cities are particularly vulnerable. Without electricity there is no internet, but right now, without the internet there is no electricity either. The restoration would need to be conducted simultaneously, and by areas, by qualified technicians, and it would take time.
如果整个城市全面停电，每隔几百米就需要更换电信硬件，这将导致移动网络崩溃。固定网络受到的影响较小，因为它们位于地下，发生故障时更容易修复。如果只有一个城市受到影响，太阳风暴造成的停电将是轻微的。
A total blackout across a city in which telecommunications hardware needed to be changed every few hundred meters, would result in the collapse of mobile networks. Fixed networks would be less affected as they are underground and they would be easier to repair in the event of a failure. If just one city was affected, the blackout caused by the solar storm would be minor.
当然，问题在于如果停电同时影响到邻近城市或数十个特大城市。试想一下中欧或中国东海岸，这些地方有大量人口居住在附近，更重要的是，几乎没有备用零件来弥补所造成的损失。除了农业或畜牧业生产和人口的损失之外，影响还可能是巨大的。
The problem, of course, is if the blackout simultaneously affects neighboring cities or dozens of megacities. Imagine Central Europe, or the east coast of China, places in which large numbers of people live in close proximity and, more importantly, have few spare parts for the damage caused. In addition to the loss of agriculture or livestock production together with people, the impact could be tremendous.
除了为医院提供基本物资的复杂性之外，为城市提供食物将是最大的短期挑战。好消息是，地球上有足够的罐头食品来满足 "被蒙在鼓里 "的地区的需求。问题是在网络恢复运行期间如何运输这些食品。最坏的情况是全球停电。
Apart from the complexity of providing hospitals with basic supplies, feeding cities would be the biggest short-term challenge. The good news is that there is enough canned food on the planet to meet the demands of the region that was ‘left in the dark’. The problem would be transporting it while the network got back up and running. The worst case scenario is a global blackout.
太阳风暴的影响
The effects of a solar storm
从一般影响开始，到更具体的术语，可以大致列出太阳风暴可能造成的破坏。太阳大爆发的后果将波及许多不同的领域。在电力和通信网络崩溃的大框架下，会产生许多具体形式的损害，每种损害都会对日常生活造成不同的后果。
Starting with general impacts and moving towards more specific terms, an approximate list could be made of the potential damage that could be caused by a solar storm. The consequences of a major solar eruption would be felt in many diverse areas. Under the broad umbrella of power and communication network collapses, numerous specific forms of damage arise, each with distinct consequences on everyday life.
例如，卫星将停止工作。这将导致通信中断。许多地区依靠卫星上网或打电话，但这种故障也会导致信息中断。卫星用于国防和气象等多个领域，其提供的数据对国家安全和天气预报至关重要。无线电通信也会出现类似情况，在最极端的情况下，无线电通信可能会中断，并可能导致全面停电。
For example, satellites would cease to function. This would lead to a communication blackout. Many areas depend on satellites to access the internet or make phone calls, but this failure would also result in an information blackout. Satellites are utilized in various fields, such as defense and meteorology, and the data they provide are essential for national security and weather forecasting. A similar situation would occur with radio communications, which could be disrupted and potentially lead to a complete blackout in the most extreme cases.
在全面停电之前，电网可能会出现电压控制问题，或者管理电网的应急系统出现误报。一个间接的问题是电涌，因为没有做好准备的基础设施可能会出现熔断元件，从而增加停电风险。
Power grids, prior to a complete blackout, could experience voltage control problems or false positives in the emergency systems that manage them. An indirect problem would be power surges, as unprepared infrastructure could experience fused elements, increasing the risk of blackouts.
在太阳辐射最极端的情况下，其后果甚至会影响人类健康。当辐射水平上升时，人类健康面临的风险也会上升，尤其是在高纬度地区（例如航班上的乘客和机组人员）。在此之前，必须考虑到，即使对电网或互联网造成轻微影响，也会影响到依赖这些基础设施的人们。近几十年来，技术为医疗卫生领域带来了革命性的变化，解决了那些往往无解的问题。但不利的一面是，技术停电会让这些人处于岌岌可危的境地。
In the most extreme cases of solar radiation, the consequences could even impact human health. When radiation levels increase, the risk to human health also rises, particularly at high latitudes (for example, passengers and crew on flights). Before this happens, it is important to consider that even mild impacts on power grids or the internet would affect the people who depend on these infrastructures. Technology has revolutionized the health sector in recent decades, solving problems that often had no solution. The downside is that a technology blackout leaves these individuals in a precarious situation.
尽管这些问题会产生全球性影响，对城市和农村地区都有影响，但在城市环境中的影响会更加明显。由于城市人口众多，受影响的人口数量将大大增加。
Although these issues would have a global impact, affecting both cities and rural areas, the effects would be more pronounced in urban environments. Since cities contain large populations, the number of people affected would be significantly higher.
太阳风暴即将来临？
IS A SOLAR STORM ON ITS WAY?
应对周期性灾难事件的最好办法就是想象 "危险即将来临"。无论是严重干旱、毁灭性陨石、太阳风暴还是大流行病，危险总是在前方。然而，我们应该从概率的角度将危险降至最低：即将发生的事情并不意味着它很快就会发生。那么，它到底会不会发生呢？
The best response to cyclic cataclysmic events is to imagine that ‘danger is on its way’. Whether it is a profound drought, a devasting meteorite, a solar storm or a pandemic, the danger is always ahead. However, it is worth minimizing by looking at the probabilities: the fact that something is going to happen does not mean it is going to happen soon. So, is it on its way or not?
是的，太阳风暴将来会发生，但我们不知道是什么时候。1859 年发生过一次大太阳风暴（如下图所示），它影响了部分电报网络。上一次太阳风暴发生在 1921 年，造成一些电信系统起火，但并不严重。
Yes, a solar storm will occur in the future, but we do not know when. There was a major solar storm in 1859 (as shown below) and it affected part of the telegraph network. The last one was in 1921, causing some fires in telecommunications systems, but nothing serious.
如果发生太阳风暴会怎样
What would happen if there was a solar storm
在评估可能性或讨论潜在结果时，我们不应将重点仅仅局限于超级风暴。因此，考虑太阳风暴发生时会发生什么并不是一个修辞问题或科幻小说的素材，而是一个务实的问题。太阳爆发是一种真实的现象，其影响确实会波及我们的星球。
When assessing the probabilities or discussing potential outcomes, we should not limit our focus to superstorms alone. Therefore, considering what would happen in the event of a solar storm is not a rhetorical question or science fiction material, but rather a pragmatic concern. A solar eruption is a real phenomenon, and its effects do reach our planet.
2003 年曾发生过一次地磁暴，但没有引发城市停电，而在 2024 年春季，又将发生一次地磁暴。这是近年来最强烈的一次。"电网协会发言人罗斯-伊顿（Ross Eaton）在科学机构通知公众即将发生太阳活动时，向公众保证："能源部门会为包括太空在内的宇宙中发生的一系列事件制定计划。
In 2003, there was a geomagnetic storm, which didn’t trigger a blackout in cities, and in the spring of 2024 another is occurring. It is the most intense of recent years. “The energy sector establishes plans for a series of events that occur across the universe, including space” Ross Eaton, spokesperson for the Power Grids Association, assured the public when scientific entities notified them of the imminent solar activity.
卡灵顿事件是怎么回事？
WHAT WAS THE CARRINGTON EVENT?
1859 年 9 月 1 日，发生了 "卡林顿事件"，其名称来源于天文学家理查德-卡林顿（Richard Carrington），他观测到了太阳爆发，并首次将其与地磁暴联系起来。几周前，低纬度地区出现了极光现象，欧洲和北美的电报系统也出现了一些故障。
On September 1, 1859, the ‘Carrington Event’ occurred, which takes its name from Richard Carrington, an astronomer who observed the solar eruption and associated it with a geomagnetic storm for the first time. Weeks earlier auroral displays had been spotted at low latitudes, there were some failures in the telegraph systems in Europe and North America.
虽然由于电气系统着火（来自太阳的带电粒子导致短路和放电）而引发了一些火灾，但事实上，当时原始的电气技术水平意味着这一现象影响甚微。请记住，当时最可靠的信息传递方式是邮寄。今天，后果会有所不同。
Although there were some fires because the electrical systems caught on fire (charged particles from the Sun caused short circuits and discharges), the truth is that the primitive state of electrical technology at the time meant the phenomenon had little effect. Remember that the most reliable way of sending information was by post. Today, the consequences would be different.
我们准备好应对未来的太阳爆发了吗？
ARE WE PREPARED FOR A FUTURE SOLAR ERUPTION?
我们已经不是生活在 1859 年的电报时代或 1921 年的铜缆时代。现在，一切都依赖于互联网和电力流体（两者都是独立的），我们的通信技术是光缆、卫星和无线电连接的混合体。问题出在哪里？根据最近一项名为 "太阳超级风暴 "的研究，超级风暴可能会导致许多系统无法运行：互联网启示录规划 "的最新研究报告指出。
We are not living in the telegraphic era of 1859 or the copper era of 1921. Now everything depends on the internet and electrical fluid (both independent) and our communications technology is a mixture of fiber optic cables, satellites and radio connections. The problem? A superstorm could render many of these systems inoperable, according to a recent study entitled ‘Solar Superstorms: Planning for an Internet Apocalypse’.
尽管如此，必须指出的是，太阳超级风暴不会以任何方式 "摧毁 "整个电信基础设施。首先，有些太阳风暴只持续几个小时。世界上的城市只占地球陆地面积的 2%，因此在这种情况下，只有极少数人口会受到严重影响。
That said, it is important to point out that a solar superstorm would not ‘fry’ the entire telecommunications infrastructure in any way. Firstly, some solar storms barely last a few hours. The world’s cities occupy just 2% of the Earth’s land, therefore only a very small part of the population would be seriously affected in this case.
除此以外，部分地下电缆因其深度而免受太阳活动的影响，而且如果我们有火箭燃料，我们目前拥有在数周内发射卫星群的技术。虽然覆盖率会很低，但至少会有一些。而且，考虑到经济更多的是热能（燃烧）而不是电力，许多系统不会受到影响。太阳爆发不一定会把地球及其城市推回到中世纪。
In addition to this, part of the underground cables are protected from solar events given their depth, and the fact that we currently have the technology to launch constellations of satellites in weeks if we have fuel for rockets. The coverage would be low, but at least there would be some. And, bearing in mind that the economy is more thermal (combustion) than electric, many systems would not be affected. A solar eruption would not necessarily thrust the planet and its cities back to the Middle Ages.
在最坏的情况下，超级风暴将持续数月，并将电信基础设施降至零。根据上述文章中的最新估计，恢复 "正常 "需要数月或数年的时间。因为世界断开连接的时间越长，重新激活所需的时间就越长。
In the worst case scenario, the superstorm would last for months and would reduce the telecommunications infrastructure to zero. According to recent estimates included in the article above, it would take months or years to return to ‘normality’. Because the longer the world is disconnected, the longer it will take to reactivate it because of tis interactions.
严重程度表
A scale of severity
当然，超级风暴是最灾难性的情况。太阳活动的强度各不相同，太阳爆发的影响也有轻重之分。
Of course, a superstorm would be the most catastrophic scenario. Solar activity varies in intensity, and the impacts of solar eruptions range in severity.
美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）为地磁风暴和太阳辐射风暴制定了一系列等级标准，这些标准规定了从极端风暴、强风暴到小风暴的不同等级。轻微风暴通常会造成电网波动或卫星和无线电波运行的轻微中断。对于人类的眼睛来说，可以通过动物行为的变化和夜间观察天空来观察它们的影响。此时，在通常看不到北极光的纬度地区也能看到北极光。
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has a series of scales for geomagnetic storms and solar radiation storms, which establish different levels, ranging from extreme, to strong, to minor. A minor storm typically causes grid fluctuations or slight disruptions in the operation of satellites and radio waves. To the human eye, their effects can be observed through changes in animal behavior and by watching the sky at night. This is when the northern lights can be seen at latitudes where they are not usually visible.
这正是最近发生的情况：在欧洲和北美洲通常看不到北极光的地区出现了北极光。极光是正在发生的地磁暴的影响之一。美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）已经发现 2024 年的地磁暴会对电网造成影响，导致电网不正常，并注意到高频通信中断和 GPS 质量下降。
This is precisely what occurred during the most recent episode: the northern lights were visible in areas of Europe and North America where they are not typically seen. Auroras are one of the effects of an ongoing geomagnetic storm. The NOAA has already identified an impact on power grids, recording irregularities as a result of the 2024 episode, and noted disruptions in high-frequency communications and a decline in GPS quality.
在一定程度上，太阳风暴的影响是可以预防的。1989 年，由于太阳活动，魁北克发生了持续数小时的大停电。这次经历给加拿大公共管理部门上了一课，从那时起，公共管理部门就拨出数百万美元保护变压器。他们将战略重点放在这些基础设施上，因为它们是电网的基本组成部分，也是此类情况下附带损害的常见来源。保护变压器将降低潜在风险。
To a certain extent, it is possible to prevent the effects of solar storms. In 1989, Quebec experienced a blackout that lasted for hours as a result of solar activity. This experience served as a lesson for the Canadian public administration, which has since allocated millions of dollars to protect the transformers. They focused their strategy on these infrastructures, as they are fundamental components of the power grid and a common source of collateral damage in such situations. Protecting them will reduce potential risks.
作者 | M. Martínez Euklidiadas
标题 | 《 WHAT EFFECTS COULD A SOLAR STORM HAVE ON OUR CITIES?》
https://m.sciencenet.cn/blog-2277-1437065.html
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