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一篇被译成英文的博文:流感大流行预警
杨学祥 2012-12-27 16:43
中英文对照和原文 点评:事实上, 2008 年是太阳黑子谷年,比科学家的事前预测晚了一年, 2009 年发生了厄尔尼诺事件,比林振山等人的预测晚了一年, 2009 年爆发了世界流感,比我们的预测晚了一年。流感大流行的 6 大气候特征得到验证。由于 2008 年是太阳黑子谷年,本次流感大流行强度不大,不排除2013-2014年太阳黑子峰年(预测)流感继续增强的可能性。 Upgrade influenza pandemic warning: possible pandemic next year 流感大流行预警:2008年可能发生流感大流行 发表人: yxx119 发表时间: 2008年1月27日14点57分 来源: View Single Post Upgrade influenza pandemic warning: possible pandemic next year 流感大流行预警:2008年可能发生流感大流行 saw this at PFI, credit: Rickk. This is a scientific forum quoting China TV story about the 6 climatic conditions that lead some to predict that 2008 will have favorable conditions for a pandemic. 这是一个引自中国电视故事有关六个气候特征的科学论坛,它预测2008年将有流感的有利条件。 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Side track a little. I then searched CCTV.com and found a Chinese (Mandarin) documentary about the Spanish Flu, a discussion about all kinds of viruses, and vaccines. To my surprise, there were historical records and medical books dating back to the 11th century of making a vaccine for small pox. They took the fluid (pus?) from small pox inflicted patients and let it dry, then grind it into powdery form and blow it into nostrils of the uninfected using a small bamboo pipe! 我搜索CCTV.com,发现有关西班牙流感的中国(官方)文件,讨论各种病毒和疫苗。出乎意料,有史料记载和医学书籍可远溯至11世纪的制造一种疫苗,天花。他们从病人的天花中取出液(脓?),并把它烘干,然后研磨成粉状的形式,利用小竹管把它吹在被感染的鼻孔。 What I found interesting was that they broadcasted this lengthy documentary, possibly for public education about the threats of a pandemic, as well as all kinds of viral diseases - they said every year one or two new animal based viral diseases are discovered, that we have to live with this threat. 我发现有趣的是,他们播出的这个漫长的纪录片,可能是为有关流感威胁的公众教育,以及各种病毒性传染病-他们说每年都有一,两个新的基于动物病毒性疾病被发现,我们生活在这一威胁中。 http://translate.google.com/transla...nhl=enie=UTF8 Back to main story: Google translation below: http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=enlangpair=zh-CN|enu=http://www.sciencenet.cn/bbs/ShowPost.aspx%3Fid%3D5185prev=/translate_s%3Fhl%3Den%26q%3Dbird%2Bflu%2B2008%2Bja n%26tq%3D%25E7%25A6%25BD%25E6%25B5%2581%25E6%2584% 259F2008%25E5%25B9%25B41%25E6%259C%2588%26sl%3Den% 26tl%3Dzh-CN%26start%3D20 Upgrade influenza pandemic warning: possible pandemic next year 杨学祥,杨冬红 Yang Xuexiang, Yang Donghong 中新网 -- 12 月 22 日 December 22 电据中央电视台消息,气象学家们根据目前的观测预言, 2008 年极有可能发生大流感。 -- According to CCTV news, meteorologists have predicted that under the current observation, 2008 is very possible pandemic. 消息称,对于 1890 年到 2004 年天气数据的研究,可以观察到流感大流行年份的六个气候特征。 According to reports, the 1890 to 2004 study weather data can be observed that the influenza pandemic of the six years of climate characteristics. 气象学家们根据目前的观测预言, 2008 年极有可能发生大流感。 Meteorologists have predicted that under the current observation, 2008 is very possible pandemic. 而医学家们则从流行病学的角度提出了同样的警告。 Epidemiological and medical scientist who from the standpoint of the same warning. 从 2003 年至今,流感大流行的潜在风险越来越高。 From 2003 to date, the potential influenza pandemic risk getting higher and higher. 尤其是禽流感不仅每年出现,在全球还有扩大的趋势。 Especially the bird flu not only every year, and expand the global trend. 2008 年,爆发流感的可能正在迫近。 2008, the outbreak of influenza may be looming. 消息说,世界卫生组织已经公布了 2007 年到 2008 年针对北半球推荐的三大流感毒株,各国也因此准备了有针对性的疫苗和抗病毒药物,这就可能在流感真正到来时 ,控制住疾病的流行和扩散 1] 。 News that the World Health Organization has published the 2007 to 2008 for the northern hemisphere influenza strains recommended by the three countries also prepared a targeted vaccines and antiviral drugs, which may be the advent of true influenza, control the prevalence and spread of the disease 1]. 中新网联合国 United Nations -- 12 月 21 日 December 21 电世界卫生组织星期五 (21 日 ) 表示,尽管禽流感病毒在人与人之间传播的情况仍属罕见,但目前尚不能排除近来巴基斯坦出现的禽流感病例是由 人与人之间传播所致。 Friday, the World Health Organization (21) said that although bird flu virus spread from person to person in the situation is still rare, but still can not rule out the recent Pakistan by the bird flu spread from person to person by the to. 据联合国网站报道,巴基斯坦白沙瓦地区首次发现 8 例疑似人类感染禽流感病例,其中两例死亡。 According to the United Nations web site, the first time in Peshawar, Pakistan found eight cases of suspected human bird flu cases, two of which were fatal. 巴基斯坦国家实验室对患者血液样本进行了检测并发现了禽流感病毒。 Pakistan National Laboratory on the patients blood samples were tested and the discovery of the bird flu virus. 世卫组织表示,巴基斯坦此后没有出现新的病例,目前世卫组织正在调查已发现病例的感染途径。 WHO said that Pakistan since there were no new cases, WHO is currently investigating cases of infection have been found ways. 世卫组织指出,只要 H5N1 禽流感病毒仍然在世界上传播,就不能排除这种病毒发生变异和重组进而导致大流行性流感的可能性 。 WHO pointed out that, as long as the H5N1 avian influenza virus is still spread in the world, we can not rule out the possibility that the virus mutates and restructuring leading to the possibility of an influenza pandemic. 由于缺乏足够的信息,目前无法断定这样的风险有多大。 Due to the lack of sufficient information is not possible to determine how such risks. 大流行性流感一般由一种能够使人类致病的新流感病毒所引发。 Pandemic Influenza generally enable a new human disease caused by influenza virus. 由于人类的免疫系统对其不具备预存免疫性,感染和患病率远高于普通的季节性流感。 Because the human immune system does not have stored their immunity, infection and the prevalence rate much higher than the ordinary seasonal flu. 专家认为, H5N1 禽流感病毒是一种具有大流行潜力的毒株。 Experts believe that the H5N1 avian flu virus is a kind of potential pandemic strains. 目前全球存储了 1 亿 5000 万剂流感疫苗,以备全球大流感爆发时之需 。 The current global store 100 million 50 million influenza vaccine to prepare for a worldwide influenza outbreak needs . 综合 1890-2004 年的数据,我们可以得到流感大流行的 6 大气候特征:处于拉马德雷冷位相时期及其边界;前一年或前两年为中等强度以上的拉尼娜年; 20 世纪 50-70 年代同时为中国强沙尘暴年;前后一年或当年为中国东北地区冷夏年( 20 世纪 50-70 年代同时为严重低温冷害年);当年为中等强度以上的厄尔尼诺年;当年为太阳黑子谷年 m 或峰年 M , m-1 年, m+1 年或 M+1 年。 Comprehensive 1890-2004, data, we can get influenza pandemic climate of the six characteristics: Madre in the cold period and the phase boundary; the previous year or two years ago for the moderate-intensity above La Nina years; 20th century 50-70 At the same time as Chinas strong sandstorm; year or the year before and after Chinas northeast cold summer (50-70 in the 20th century at the same time as serious chilling damage); that moderate intensity for more than El Nino years; for the year sunspot Valley, m or the M-, m-1, m +1, or M +1. 1889-1890 年、 1900 年、 1918-1919 年、 1957-1958 年、 1968-1969 年和 1977 年的禽流感爆发都满足这 6 大条件,同时,在 1890 年以来,满足这 6 大条件的只有以上 6 次爆发 。 1889-1890, 1900, 1918-1919, 1957-1958, 1968-1969, 1977 and the outbreak of avian flu have met six conditions at the same time, in 1890, met only six conditions more than six times the outbreak of . 第 7 大特征是当年为冬季或夏季强潮汐南北震荡持续天数异常年。 7 feature is that for the winter or summer North-South concussion sustained strong tidal anomalies in a few days. 后三次流感世界爆发都满足这一特征。 Third World after the outbreak of influenza are to meet this feature. 现在,至少在 20 世纪 50-70 年代,我们发现了禽流感爆发与沙尘暴高峰的一一对应关系。 Now, in the 20th century, at least 50-70 years, we found that the outbreak of avian flu and sandstorms peak of one-to-one relationship. 1900 年的流感爆发,因为偏离标准较远,因而也较弱 。 1900 outbreaks of influenza, because any deviation from the standard distance, and thus the weaker . 2006 、 2008 、 2011 、 2015 、 2018-2019 年是可能的厄尔尼诺年, 2007 年、 2013-2014 年、 2016-2017 年是可能的拉尼娜年。 2006, 2008, 2011, 2015, 2018-2019, it is possible to El Nino years, 2007, 2013, 2016-2017, it is possible to La Nina years. 加强这些年份的地震和禽流感的防范和监测非常重要。 Strengthen these years of earthquakes and avian flu prevention and monitoring is very important. 如果 2007 年是太阳黑子谷年 m , 2007 年预测为拉尼娜年, 2008 年则是 m+1 年,预测为厄尔尼诺年 , 2008 年为夏季强潮汐南北震荡持续天数异常年( 44 天),在拉马德雷冷位相时期的厄尔尼诺年( 2000-2030 年内)和太阳黑子极值年易发生低温冷害。 If 2007 is the sunspot Valley, m, 2007 is forecast to La Nina, the 2008 m +1, it is forecast to El Nino, , for the summer 2008 North-South concussion sustained strong tidal anomalies in the number of days (44 days) , in the Madre cold phase of El Nino period (2000-2030 years) and the sunspot extreme cold damage-prone. 这样, 2008 年就具有较高的概率发生流感爆发。 Thus, in 2008 the higher the probability of an influenza outbreak. 2006-2008 年是否是强拉尼娜与强厄尔尼诺相互转换是禽流感是否爆发的关键。 2006-2008 is a strong El Nino, La Nina and strong mutual conversion is the outbreak of avian flu is crucial. 2007 年的拉尼娜现象及其伴随的强沙尘暴,为 2007-2008 年的禽流感孕育和爆发增大了发生几率 。 2007 accompanied by the La Nina phenomenon and the strong sandstorm, the 2007-2008 outbreak of the avian flu bred and increased incidence of . 2007 年 2-6 月为强潮汐时期,预计弱厄尔尼诺将结束,强拉尼娜将发生。 2007 February-June period for the strong tides expected weak El Nino will come to an end, the strong La Nina will occur. 德雷克海峡的海冰增多是拉尼娜现象的前兆,拉马德雷冷位相的强拉尼娜是流感爆发的前兆 。 Drake Passage of sea ice is more of the La Nina phenomenon omen Madre strong La Nina cold phase of the influenza outbreak of precursor . 2007 年 8 月拉尼娜事件已经发生,预防流感大流行迫在眉睫 。 August 2007 La Nina events have already occurred, the prevention of influenza pandemic imminent . 中国新闻界对流感流行预警升级的报道表明中国科技报道实力的增强。 China influenza pandemic alert the press for the upgrading of the reports indicate that Chinas scientific and technological strength reports. 中国科技新闻应该走出国门,面向全世界。 Chinas scientific and technological information should go out of the country, facing the whole world. 参考文献 References 1. 1. 责任编辑:陈国栋。 Editor: Chen Guodong. 流感流行预警升级世卫组织公布三大流感毒株。 AWACS upgrade influenza pandemic, WHO announced three flu strains. 搜狐网。 Sohu network. 2007 年 12 月 22 日 December 22, 2007 06:14 来源:中国新闻网。 6:14 Source: China News Network. http://news.sohu.com/20071222/n254235759.shtml Http://news.sohu.com/20071222/n254235759.shtml 2. 2. 世卫称巴基斯坦禽流感不排除人际传播。 WHO said Pakistan does not rule out the possibility of avian flu transmitted from person to person. 2007 年 12 月 22 日 December 22, 2007 08:24 中国新闻网。 0824 China News Network. http://news.sina.com.cn/w/2007-12-2...13125122s.shtml Http://news.sina.com.cn/w/2007-12-2...13125122s.shtml 3. 3. 杨冬红,杨学祥,刘财。 Yang Dong Hung, Yang Xuexiang, Mr Choi. 2004 年 12 月 26 日 December 26, 2004 印尼地震海啸与全球低温 。 Indonesian earthquake and tsunami and global low temperature . 地球物理学进展。 Geophysics progress. 2006 , 21 ( 3 ): 1023-1027 2006, 21 (3): 1023-1027 4. 4. 杨冬红,杨学祥。 Yang Dong Hung, Yang Xuexiang. “拉马德雷”冷位相时期的全球强震和灾害。 "Madre" during the cold phase of global earthquake and disaster. 西北地震学报。 Journal of the Northwest earthquake. 2006 , 28 ( 1 ): 95-96 2006, 28 (1): 95-96 5. 5. 杨学祥,杨冬红。 Yang Xuexiang, Yang Dong Hung. “太平洋十年涛动”冷位相时期的全球飓风等灾害。 "Pacific Decade Oscillation" during the cold phase of global disasters such as hurricanes. 海洋预报。 Marine forecasting. 2006 , 23 ( 3 ): 30-35 2006, 23 (3): 30-35 6. 6. 杨冬红,杨学祥。 Yang Dong Hung, Yang Xuexiang. 流感世界大流行的气候特征。 World influenza pandemic climatic characteristics. 沙漠与绿洲气象。 Desert Oasis and weather. 2007 , 1 ( 3 ): 1-8 。 2007, 1 (3): 1-8. 2007 年 8 月 22 日 August 22, 2007 发表,可查网址: http://qxg.com.cn/n/?fc=ndcid=43nid=14661 Published, available on the Web site: http://qxg.com.cn/n/?fc=ndcid=43nid=14661 7. 7. 杨学祥 . 厄尔尼诺事件产生的原因与验证 . 自然杂志. 2004 , 26 ( 3 ) : 151 - 155 Yang Xuexiang. El Nino events and verification of the cause. Nature magazine. 2004, 26 (3): 151 – 155 8. 8. 杨冬红,杨学祥。 Yang Dong Hung, Yang Xuexiang. 澳大利亚夏季大雪与南极海冰三个气候开关。 Australia and the Antarctic summer sea ice snow three climatic switch. 地球物理学进展。 Geophysics progress. 2007 , 22 ( 5 ): 1680-1685 。 2007, 22 (5): 1680-1685. 9. 9. 杨学祥 . 中等强度的拉尼娜事件已初步形成:流感爆发还会远吗? Yang Xuexiang. Medium intensity of the incident has initially formed La Nina: influenza outbreak be far behind? 2007-09-24 2007-09-24 光明观察 . 学术?新知。 Bright observation. Academic Awakening. http://guancha.gmw.cn/content/2007-...tent_675621.htm Http://guancha.gmw.cn/content/2007-...tent_675621.htm __________________ Saving lives is our common goal. Our approaches may differ. I dont have to be always right. No one has to be always wrong. The world has to succeed. You want perspective. I want perspective. We dont have to agree on every thing. If we do. One of us is redundant. http://www.curevents.com/vb/showpost.php?p=850987postcount=219 View Single Post 01-05-2008, 06:54 PM anon.yyz Valued Member 相关链接: http://www.curevents.com/vb/showpost.php?p=850987postcount=219 http://www.flu.org.cn/scn/news-14085.html http://guancha.gmw.cn/content/2007-12/24/content_714792.htm 流感流行预警升级:明年可能发生大流感 杨学祥 杨冬红  刊发时间:2007-12-24 11:15:17 光明网-光明观察   中新网12月22日电 据中央电视台消息,气象学家们根据目前的观测预言,2008年极有可能发生大流感。消息称,对于1890年到2004年天气数据的研究,可以观察到流感大流行年份的六个气候特征。气象学家们根据目前的观测预言,2008年极有可能发生大流感。而医学家们则从流行病学的角度提出了同样的警告。从2003年至今, 流感大流行的潜在风险越来越高。尤其是禽流感不仅每年出现,在全球还有扩大的趋势。2008年,爆发流感的可能正在迫近。消息说,世界卫生组织已经公布了2007年到2008年针对北半球推荐的三大流感毒株,各国也因此准备了有针对性的疫苗和抗病毒药物,这就可能在流感真正到来时,控制住疾病的流行和扩散1]。   中新网联合国12月21日电世界卫生组织星期五(21日)表示,尽管禽流感病毒在人与人之间传播的情况仍属罕见,但目前尚不能排除近来巴基斯坦出现的禽流感病例是由人与人之间传播所致。据联合国网站报道,巴基斯坦白沙瓦地区首次发现8例疑似人类感染禽流感病例,其中两例死亡。巴基斯坦国家实验室对患者血液样本进行了检测并发现了禽流感病毒。世卫组织表示,巴基斯坦此后没有出现新的病例,目前世卫组织正在调查已发现病例的感染途径。世卫组织指出,只要H5N1禽流感病毒仍然在世界上传播,就不能排除这种病毒发生变异和重组进而导致大流行性流感的可能性。由于缺乏足够的信息,目前无法断定这样的风险有多大。大流行性流感一般由一种能够使人类致病的新流感病毒所引发。由于人类的免疫系统对其不具备预存免疫性,感染和患病率远高于普通的季节性流感。专家认为,H5N1禽流感病毒是一种具有大流行潜力的毒株。目前全球存储了1亿5000万剂流感疫苗,以备全球大流感爆发时之需 。   综合1890-2004年的数据,我们可以得到流感大流行的6大气候特征:处于拉马德雷冷位相时期及其边界;前一年或前两年为中等强度以上的拉尼娜年;20世纪50-70年代同时为中国强沙尘暴年;前后一年或当年为中国东北地区冷夏年(20世纪50-70年代同时为严重低温冷害年);当年为中等强度以上的厄尔尼诺年;当年为太阳黑子谷年m或峰年M,m-1年,m+1年或M+1年。 1889-1890年、1900年、1918-1919年、1957-1958年、1968-1969年和1977年的禽流感爆发都满足这6大条件,同时,在1890年以来,满足这6大条件的只有以上6次爆发 。第7大特征是当年为冬季或夏季强潮汐南北震荡持续天数异常年。后三次流感世界爆发都满足这一特征。现在,至少在20世纪50-70年代,我们发现了禽流感爆发与沙尘暴高峰的一一对应关系。1900年的流感爆发,因为偏离标准较远,因而也较弱 。   2006、2008、2011、2015、2018-2019年是可能的厄尔尼诺年,2007年、2013-2014年、2016-2017年是可能的拉尼娜年,2007、2011、2018、2022年是可能的太阳黑子极值年。加强这些年份的地震和禽流感的防范和监测非常重要。如果2007年是太阳黑子谷年m,2007年预测为拉尼娜年,2008年则是m+1年,预测为厄尔尼诺年 ,2008年为夏季强潮汐南北震荡持续天数异常年(44天),在拉马德雷冷位相时期的厄尔尼诺年(2000-2030年内)和太阳黑子极值年易发生低温冷害。这样,2008年就具有较高的概率发生流感爆发。2006-2008年是否是强拉尼娜与强厄尔尼诺相互转换是禽流感是否爆发的关键。2007年的拉尼娜现象及其伴随的强沙尘暴,为2007-2008年的禽流感孕育和爆发增大了发生几率 。2007年2-6月为强潮汐时期,预计弱厄尔尼诺将结束,强拉尼娜将发生。德雷克海峡的海冰增多是拉尼娜现象的前兆,拉马德雷冷位相的强拉尼娜是流感爆发的前兆 。   2007年8月拉尼娜事件已经发生,预防流感大流行迫在眉睫 。中国新闻界对流感流行预警升级的报道表明中国科技报道实力的增强。中国科技新闻应该走出国门,面向全世界。 参考文献   1.责任编辑:陈国栋。流感流行预警升级 世卫组织公布三大流感毒株。搜狐网。2007年12月22日06:14 来源:中国新闻网。 http://news.sohu.com/20071222/n254235759.shtml   2.世卫称巴基斯坦禽流感不排除人际传播。2007年12月22日08:24 中国新闻网。 http://news.sina.com.cn/w/2007-12-22/082413125122s.shtml   3.杨冬红,杨学祥,刘财。2004年12月26日印尼地震海啸与全球低温 。地球物理学进展。2006,21(3):1023-1027   4.杨冬红,杨学祥。“拉马德雷”冷位相时期的全球强震和灾害。西北地震学报。2006,28(1):95-96   5.杨学祥,杨冬红。“太平洋十年涛动”冷位相时期的全球飓风等灾害。海洋预报。2006,23(3):30-35   6.杨冬红,杨学祥。流感世界大流行的气候特征。沙漠与绿洲气象。2007,1(3):1-8。2007年8月22日发表,可查网址: http://qxg.com.cn/n/?fc=ndcid=43nid=14661   7.杨学祥. 厄尔尼诺事件产生的原因与验证. 自然杂志. 2004, 26(3): 151-155   8.杨冬红,杨学祥。澳大利亚夏季大雪与南极海冰三个气候开关。地球物理学进展。2007,22(5):1680-1685。   9.杨学祥.中等强度的拉尼娜事件已初步形成:流感爆发还会远吗? 2007-09-24 光明观察. 学术·新知。 http://guancha.gmw.cn/content/2007-09/24/content_675621.htm
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[转载]THE POLITICS OF “GUN CONTROL”
guanyunzhai 2012-12-25 16:42
THEPOLITICSOF“GUNCONTROL” Fromimpossibletopossible? Tags:Guns.Regulation. INTRODUCTION1 BACKGROUND2 COMMENTARY3 EXPLANATION4 EVALUATION5 INTRODUCTION1 Thisweek(121215-121222)wehavehadtheWinterSolsice(dongzhi),whentheNorthernHemispherereachesitsdarkest,andthebrightforcesofyangbeginslowlytoprevailoverthedarkforcesofyin.ThisweekAmericatoodescendedintoadeepnadirofdarkness,andonecanonlyhopethatthisabysstoomarksaturningtowardlight.Iamreferring,ofcourse,tothetragedyinNewtown,Connecticutinwhichatwenty-year-oldmangunneddowntwentyfirst-graders,sixoftheirteachers,andtwootherpersons(hismotherandhimself).TheNewtowntragedyplaces“guncontrol”squarelyontheAmericanpoliticalagendaforearly2013.Accordingly,thisPostprovidesananticipatorybriefingonthispolicydomain.Thetopicissurprisinglycomplicated,sothePostislong–eventhoughittreatsonlythepoliticsofregulatinggunsandignoresmanyrelatedissues.Asusual,readersarewelcometoproceedonlyasfarastheirinteresttakesthem.InthisIntroduction,weprecedetheusualOverviewofthecontentsofthePostwithabriefProloguethatattemptstoforegroundsomemainthemes. Prologue:“Issues”asproblematicconnectionsbetweenpolicyandpolitics Gunviolenceisadepressingsubject,butonethatrepaysstudy,becauseitshowsagreatdealaboutAmericanPOLITICS.Inapoliticalsystemdesignedtopreventsuddendrasticaction,someissuesdonotgetontothepoliticalagendauntilpropelledtherebydramaticevents,andeventhenlittleofpolicysubstancemayresult.Unfortunately,the“issues”thatpoliticsraisedonotnecessarilyidentifyausablerelationshipbetweensocietalneedsandremedialpolicies.ThusthissubjectalsoposesinstructivequestionsaboutPOLICY:Exactlywhatistheproblemtowhich“guncontrol”issupposedtobetheanswer,andwhatwouldapracticallyeffectiveanswertothatproblemlooklike?Fromthedominantcriminologicalperspective,theansweristhattheproblemis“violence”andthatfeasiblesolutionswillbeneithereasynorcomplete.Tosomepolicyanalysts–notonlytheGunLobby–themosteffectivecoursemaybefosteringresponsibleownershipofthehundredsofmillionsofgunsthatAmericansalreadyown. (Coincidentally,beforetheNewtowntragedy,IwasplanningtowriteaPostonThePoliticsofGunControlsometimesoonanyway,butasanillustrationofasignificantissueNOTcurrentlyontheAmericanpoliticalagenda–onwhichmorebelowattheendofthesectiononExplanation.Now,forthatpurpose,IwillhavetowriteapostonthestillunilluminatedsideofAmericandomesticsecurity:chronicviolencebetweenblacksandothersintheinnercityandtheaccompanyingextraordinaryhighrateandracialbiasofincarcerationinAmericanprisons.) OnPOLITICS,theoverallanalyticalmessageofthisPostiswhatonemightcall“temporality.”Politicscannotbereducedtoamechanicalsystemwhosetrajectorycanbepredictedoverlongperiodsoftime.Politicsproceedsinshorttermincrementsthatappearimpossibleinprospectbutinevitableinretrospect–misleadinglyfrombothperspectives.Suddendramaticincidentscanabruptlyalterpoliticalparameters,sothatwhathadlongseemedimpossiblesuddenlyseemspossible.Whathadlongbeena“nonissue”suddenlybecomestheissueoftheday.However,would-be-legislatorsmustactquicklytoseizesuchmomentsofattention,beforeeliteattentionandpublicconcerndissipate.Moreover,thepossibilityremainsthatwhathadlongseemedimpossiblestillREMAINSmostlypoliticallyimpossible.ThisisparticularlytrueinthedeliberatelydeliberativeAmericapoliticalsystem.ItremainstobeseenhowmuchguncontrolAmericanpoliticscanactuallyaccomplishinearly2013. AllofthisisevenmoretrueofaanISSUElikeguncontrol:inAmerica,“normal”hasbeen“littlecontrol,”advocatesofmorecontrolfaceformidableopposition,andtheissueisbothpoliticallycontentiousandtechnicallycomplex.Somedramaticeventisnecessarytogalvanizeaction,buteventhenseriousactionmayproveimpossible.ThemainPOLITICALreasonisthatoppositiontoguncontrolisentrenchedamongeliteactorsandwidespreadandintenseamongcertainmasspublics.Withsufficientpoliticalsupport,technicallyoneCOULDgofartowardregulatinggunuse,forexamplebylicensingandregisteringallgunowners,gunsales,andgunsandammunition.Thatwouldhelpregulatorsidentifytheminorityofowners,transactions,andequipmentthatareproblematicandallowenforcerstoconcentrateonthem.However,suchcomprehensivelicensingandregistrationhaslongremainedpoliticallyimpossibleinAmerica.Theresultinglaxregulationhasgraduallycreatedasituationthatnowprobablymakescomprehensivesolutionsimpossibletechnicallyaswellaspolitically. Thus,onPOLICY,theoverallmessageofthisPostisthattheproblemtowhichtragedieslikeNewportcallattention(occasionalrampagesbywhiteyouthinsuburbanschools)donotinthemselvesdefineasolvableproblem.TheymayevendistractattentionfromagreaterproblemthatMIGHTbeameliorated(chronicviolencebetweenblacksandothersininner-cityneighborhoods,evidentlystillanon-issue).Thesolutiontothe“real”problemmightormightnotbethesolutionsthattheestablishedpoliticsofapolicydomainmightsuggest(minoradditionstothelong-dominantparadigmof“guncontrol”).Inanycase,fewmasssupportersofguncontrol–andevenfeweliteadvocatesofit–havearealisticunderstandingofthetechnicalrequirementsfordesigningeffectivemeasuresandachievingtheirimplementation.Asaresult,themostthat“guncontrol”hasbeenabletoachievehasbeentokenmarginalmeasuressuchasrequiringchecksofthepersonalbackgroundofprospectivegunbuyersandforbiddingthesaleofcertainkindsofparticularlydangerousweapons.Eventhosemeasureshaveleftmanyloopholesandmadelittleprovisionforenforcement.Unfortunately,sofar,thepolicyresponsetotheNewtowntragedypromises,atMOST,onlyalittlemoreofthesame.(DiscussionofthepracticalrequirementsofeffectiveregulationofAmericanviolencecontinuesbelowunderEXPLANATION.) In2013themostlikelyreformsare(fromhightolowpoliticalfeasibility):closingloopholesthatenableindividualstobuygunswithoutbackgroundchecks,banningformsofammunitionthancontainmanyshotsthatcanbefiredveryquickly,andreinstatingthebanon“assaultweapons”thatcanfiresuchclips.RAMPAGESlikeNewtonaresoidiosyncraticandunpredictablethatprobablythereislittlethatsuchregulationcandotopreventthem.ThedailygunCARNAGEthattakesmanymorelives–throughoutthecountry,butparticularlyininnercities–ismuchmorepredictableandamenabletoregulation.Meanwhile,gunaffairscanbeviewedthroughmanyalternative“frames”(elaboratedunderEXPLANATION).Asaresult,numerousrelatedissueshavecomeontothepoliticalagenda,rangingfromviolententertainmentstoschoolsafetytomentalhealth.Partlythesearelegitimateissues,partlytheyaredistractionsthatadvocatesofgunrightsraiseinordertodivertattentionfromguncontrol. OverviewofthisPost ThisINTRODUCTIONstressestheusefulnessofAmericangunpoliticsforilluminatingAmericanpoliticsingeneralandproblemsofeffectiveregulationinparticular.TheIntroductionalsobeginstonoteessentialbackground,whichthesectiononBACKGROUNDcontinues.Thisweek’sCOMMENTARYhighlightsthechangingpositionsofkeypoliticiansthemselves.ThediscussionofEXPLANATIONcomparessomecircumstantialrecentanalysesofgunpoliciesandpoliticswithsomeoftheavailableAmericanpoliticalscienceapproachestopolicymakingingeneral.WeapproachEVALUATIONmostlythroughobservers’reactionstopoliticians’reactionstotheNewtowntragedy. ThesectiononBACKGROUNDbeginswithhistory:AmericahasalwayshadBOTHgunrightsandguncontrol,butAmericanpoliticshasattendedtotheissueonlyinfrequentlyandinconclusively.Inthecourseofthetwentiethcentury,RepublicansincreasinglyfavoredgunrightsandDemocratsincreasinglyfavoredguncontrol.However,Democratsbelievethatsupportofguncontrolintheearly1990scostthemcontrolofcongressin1994,adisastertheyhavesincebeendeterminednottorepeat.Nevertheless,sincetheNewtowntragedy,notonlyhaveanti-gunDemocrats(fromprogressiveurbanareas)againdemandedguncontrol,butalsosomerelativelypro-gunDemocrats(withmanyconservativeruralconstituents)havecalledforsomecontrolaswell.Meanwhile,atleastpublicly,Republicansremainasadamantlyanduniformlyopposedtomoreguncontrolastheyremainopposedtomoretaxes. COMMENTARYontheNewtownmassacrepushedasidethefiscalcrisisandothermattersthisweekinthemedia.However,wefocusonthecommentsofthemostimportantcommentator,presidentObamahimself.OnemightregardhisapproachtotheNewporttragedyasanexampleof“leadingfrombehind.”Hestartedbyexpressingsympathyforthevictims(notmentioningguns),followedbyanimpassionedcallforaction(stillnotsayingwhat),followedbytheannouncementofataskforcetodesignanappropriatepolicyresponse(includingfurtherregulationofguns).Obamahascalledforquickpassageofnewlegislationinearly2013. ThestandardEXPLANATIONfortheUSA’slaxregulationofgunsisthat,despitemajoritypublicsupportforrestrictingguns,advocatesofgunrightsaresopassionateandwellorganizedthattheyhavesimply“outgunned”advocatesofguncontrol,successfullytargetinganypoliticianswhoshowanyinclinationtoregulateguns.(ThismainstreamexplanationiswellsummarizedinRobertSpitzer2012Thepoliticsofguncontrol,5thed.BoulderCO:ParadigmPublishers,247pages–afairlycomprehensivesurveybutclearlyanti-gun.)Complementingthatstandardexplanationisanargumentthat,inthemultilevelAmericanpolity,gainingpassageofnationallegislationrequiressustainedmobilizationfromthebottomuponasuccessionofsmallmeasureswhosesuccessfulpassingyieldstangiblerewardstomasssupporters.Advocatesofgunrightshaveachievedthisbutadvocatesofguncontrolhavenot.(KristinGoss2012Disarmed:ThemissingmovementforguncontrolinAmerica.PrincetonNJ:PrincetonUniversityPress,282pages.) ThisPostactuallybeginsEVALUATIONinthelastthirdofCOMMENTARY,bynotingevaluationsofObama’sperformancesinceNewtownandtheroleofevaluationinhisperformance.Ineffect,hisdwellingonthemoraldamagethatNewtownexperiencedhashelpedreframeguncontrolasanissuetowhichordinaryAmericanscanreadilyrelate.Morebroadly,thereareplentyof“rants”incurrentcommentary“venting”justifiablemoraloutrageonthisissue,underliningtheroleinpoliticsofevaluativeemotions.Finally,underEVALUATIONitself,wenoteaphilosopher’sargumentforusingFoucaultto“deconstruct”theroleofviolenceinpolitics. RecommendationsofREADINGSonspecializedtopicsappearthroughoutthisPost,placedwheretheyaremostrelevant.ArealisticoverviewisWilliamJ.Vizzard2000Shotsinthedark:Thepolicy,politics,andsymbolismofguncontrol.LandhamMD:RowmanLittlefield,257pages.Vizzardunderstandsthenuts-and-bolts,havingworkedinnationalenforcementofgunregulationsforaquartercenturybeforeenteringpoliticalscience.Thebookrequiressomeefforttoreadandunderstand,butrepaystheeffort. Thebestsingle-authoredbookIhaveencounteredontherequirementsforeffectiveregulationofviolenceisJamesB.Jacobs2002Canguncontrolwork?NewYorkNY:OxfordUniversityPress,287pages.Jacobsisacriminologistwhohasaddressedotherdifficultissuessuchasdrunkdrivingandhatecrimes.AnimpressivecollectionofarticlesprobingvariousaspectsofregulationfromvariouspointsofviewisBernardE.Harcourted.2003Guns,crime,andpunishmentinAmerica.NewYorkNY:NewYorkUniversityPress,436pages. Asanintroductorytextbook,analternativetoSpitzerisHarryL.Wilson2007Guns,guncontrol,andelections:Thepoliticsandpolicyoffirearms.LanhamMD:RowmanLittlefield,275pages–anothercomprehensivesurvey,thistimemoderatelypro-gun.WilsonsupplementsSpitzerbytreatingrelevantstatistics,publicopinion,mediacoverage,legislativeprocess,andtheroleofgunpoliticsinrecentnationalpresidentialelections.(Bushwouldhavelostin2000withoutpro-gunsupportinseveralstates.) BACKGROUND2 Overall,themainpointaboutthehistoryofgunsinAmericaisthatithasNOTbeenhoweithergundefendersorguncriticsnowrepresentit.InfactAmericahasalwayshadBOTHgunrightsandguncontrol,theneedforbothwaswrittenintobothnationalandstateconstitutions,andthenationalSupremeCourtstillaffirmsboth.Nevertheless,extremegundefendershavearguedthattheAmericanConstitution(SecondAmendment)precludesANYregulationofgunswhileextremeguncriticshavearguedthatthesameAmendmentprecludesANYpurelyprivateownershipofguns.(TheSecondAmendmentsays,withwhatreadstodayastantalizingambiguity“Awellregulatedmilitiabeingnecessarytothesecurityofafreestate,therightofthepeopletokeepandbeararmsshallnotbeinfringed.”)Thebattlehasebbedandflowedasextremeclaimsfromonesidehaveprovokedreactionfromtheother,particularlywhenthetwosideswereofdifferentraces.Theextremeargumentsofthetwosides,usedtomobilizetheirrespectivepolitical“bases,”makeitdifficulttocompromiseonpracticalpolicies.(AdamWinkler2011Gunfight:ThebattleovertherighttobeararmsinAmerica.NewYorkNY:Norton,361pages.Forabriefing,seeJillLepore120419“Thelostamendment”atnewyorker.com.) ThisPostcannotsurveythenumerouscontendinginterpretationsoftheSecondAmendment,whichanywayin2008theSupremeCourtrenderedsomewhatacademicbydeclaringthattheSecondAmendmentendorsestherightofindividualstoownguns.Nevertheless,oneinstructivebookarguesthattheFoundersviewedgunownershipasacombinationofcivicrightandcivicobligation,aclassicallyrepublicanviewlongsinceabandonedbybothmodernliberalismandmodernconservatism.Itwasthelatenineteenthcenturythatreformulatedthegunissueascollectiverestrictionversusindividualright.Currentdebatesneednotreturntoanyofthosepositions,butshouldarticulateSOMEconstitutionalbasisforsomereasonablepolicy.(SaulCornell2006Awellregulatedmilitia:TheFoundingFathersandtheoriginsofguncontrolinAmerica.NewYork:OxfordUniversityPress,270pages.) Laxnationalregulation2.1 Inthe1930s,aftertheProhibitionofalcoholinduceddramaticblackmarketviolence,aDemocraticadministrationadoptedsomeregulationof“gangsterweapons”suchas“machineguns.”In1968,afterthepoliticalassassinationsandurbanraceriotsofthe1960s,aDemocraticadministrationmarginallystrengthenedthelimited1930smeasures.Eliteswerehorrifiedbyelitemurdersandalarmedatmassurbanunrest.Atthemasslevel,theassertionbysomeurbanblacksoftheirgunrightsprovokedsomeruralwhitestointensifytheirowncounter-assertionofgunrights.In1986,aRepublicanadministrationweakenedguncontrolbyanActprotectingthemakersoffirearmsfromliabilitysuits.In1993,inadelayedresponseto1980sincidents,aDemocraticadministrationfurtherstrengthenedguncontrolbyrequiringBACKGROUNDCHECKSongunpurchasersand,in1994,banningindividualpurchaseofASSAULTWEAPONS(thatrapidlyfirelargeclipsofammunition).Inthelate1990s,attemptsbythenationalgovernmenttoenforcetheseadditionalrestrictionsmayhaveprovokedstillfurtherintensificationofruralwhiteassertionofgunrights.Thenandsince,advocatesofgunrightshavemobilizedattheSTATEANDLOCALleveltoloosenexistingrestrictions,forexampleontherighttocarryweaponsinpublicplaces.Inconsistently,previousAmericanlawhadallowedvirtuallyanylaw-abidingcitizentopurchaseagun,butallowedonlyfewpeopletocarryone! Thepatternsincearound2000hasbeenacycleofyouthrampages,followedbytemporarypublicindignation,followedbypersistinginactionbytheNATIONALLEGISLATURE.In2004aRepublicanadministrationallowedthe1994banonassaultweaponstoexpire.Inrecentdecades,asappointmentsbyRepublicanpresidentshavetiltedthenationalSupremeCourttotheright,theNATIONALJUDICIARYhasincreasinglyaffirmedtherightsofindividualstoowngunsthatareappropriateforlegitimateuses,particularlyselfdefense.However,theCourtstillconsidersitpermissibletoregulatetheownershipanduseofguns,particularlyverydestructivegunsnotappropriateforlegitimateuses.(Onsubnationalvariation,seeBrianResnick121218“Howtomakesenseofamerica'swildlydifferent,confusingpatchworkofguncontrollaws”atnationaljournal.com/domesticpolicy.) Broadgundistribution2.2 TheUSAhasabout300millionguns–80%ofthempurchasedsince1974andlikelytoremainusableformanydecades.ThisisalmostasmanygunsasAmericahaspeople,andmanymoregunsperpersonthanotherindustrializeddemocracies.Therateofdeathsfromgunsisalsomuchhigher.Inrecentdecades,aseriesofRANDOMRAMPAGESbydisaffectedyouthhasafflictedschoolsandotherpublicvenues,facilitatedbythebroaddistributionofguns.(KatherineS.Newman2004.Rampage:Thesocialrootsofschoolshootings.NewYorkNY:BasicBooks,399pages.)However,mostgundeathsinAmericacomenotfromoccasionalrampagesbutfromtheCONSTANTCARNAGEofday-to-daygunviolencebetweenindividuals,againfacilitatedbythebroaddistributionofguns.Opponentsofguncontrolarguethatitisnowtoolatetodoanythingaboutthebroaddistributionofguns,whichwillremainavailabletowrongdoersregardlessoffuturerestrictions.Soanynewlegislationshouldtargetwrongdoers,notguns.Proponentsofguncontrolargueforstartingtolimitthebroaddistributionofgunsandammunition,particularlythemostdangerouskinds.(Forabriefing,seeEzraKlein121215“TwelvefactsaboutgunsandmassshootingsintheUnitedStates.”AlsoBradPlumer121214“Whyaremassshootingsbecomingmorecommon?”andBradPlumer121217“Graphoftheday:Perhapsmassshootingsaren’tbecomingmorecommon.”Alloftheseareatwashingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog.) About35%ofAmericanhouseholdshaveagun(inDecember2012,50%ofruralitesbutonly26%ofurbanites,49%ofRepublicansbutonly25%ofDemocrats.)Theseruralownersarenotbarbarouscountrybumpkins,butmostlyrespectablelaw-abidingmiddle-classcitizenswhoareamongthepersonsleastlikelytocommitguncrimes.Nevertheless,Americaisdistinctivenotonlyforitshighnumberofguns,butalsoforthehighesteeminwhichmanyAmericansholdguns–forsome,averitablecult.OriginallyinAmericagunswereforfrontierself-protectionandruralhunting,thenostensiblyforself-protectioneveninsettledsociety.Recentlygunshaveincreasinglyfiguredalsoeitherasjust“toys”foraffluentcollectorsorasemblemsofdissidentidentities.Thusinthelatetwentiethcenturyanincreasingreasonforpassionatesupportforextremegunrightsbecamecommitmentofsomegroupstoextremeindividualismandeven–inthecaseofright-wingmilitias–insurrectionism.ThesegroupsnowseeasmuchneedtodefendAmerican“freedom”againstthecurrentnationalgovernmentastherewasneedtofighttheBritishforindependence!However,theRevolutionaryidealsthesegroupsinvokearethemostradicalones,ofthebackwoodsmenwho,astheylefttheAppalachianmountainstosettletheAmericaninterior,spreadtheirinsurrectionaryculturetotheSouth,lowerMidwest,andMountainWest. Dividedpublicopinion2.3 Asregardspublicopinion,aslateasthe1990slargemajoritiessupportedguncontrol(bypercentagesinthehigh50stomid60s).Bythe2000sthathaddeclinedtoasmallermajority(mid-to-high50s,temporarilyrisingtoatmost60%aftermajorgunincidents).ImmediatelyafterObama’selectioninboth2008and2012,gunloversrushedtobuyguns,fearingthatObamawouldrestrictthem(andinsomecasesperhapsfearingObamahimself).Since2009,Americanshavebeenfairlyevenlysplit,atmost49%sayingthatitwasmoreimportanttoregulategunsthantoprotectgunrights,oftenonlyslightlylesssayingthereverse.AftertheNewtownincident,supportforguncontrolincreasedonlyslightly,from47%to49%.Thesecontrastingpublicattitudestowardguncontrolarenotsymmetrical,inthesensethatsupportisbroadbutshallowwhileoppositionisfocusedandintense.Mostsupportersofcontrolactuallyknowlittleaboutthetopicand,becausetheydonotownguns,wouldnotbemuchaffectedbycontrol.Incontrast,gunownershavealwaysbelievedstronglythatitisimportanttoprotectgunrights(inDecember2012,65%).EvenafterNewtown,theycontinuetobelievestronglythatowningagunimprovespersonalsafety(68%).(PewResearchCenter110113and121220) Itisworthnotingthedemographicsoftheseopinions.(SinglefiguresareforJanuary2011;“slashed”doublefiguresareforbothJanuary2011andDecember2012afterNewtown.)WithintheTOTALpopulation,supportforgunCONTROLwasonly45%amongregisteredvoters,42%/42%amongwhites,40%/41%amongmen,and26%/27%amongregisteredRepublicans.Thuswithinthesecategories,supportforguncontrolincreasedatmostonlyslightlybetweenthetwodates.Betweensomeregions,however,supportdivergedmoresharply.InJanuary2011,supportforcontrolwas60%and50%ontheEastandWestcoasts,only48%and44%intheMidwestandSouth.InaslightlydifferentbreakdownafterNewtown,supportforcontrolwas65%intheNortheast,butonly48%intheWest,45%intheMidwest,and44%intheSouth.(AmongWHITES,inJanuary2011,supportforgunRIGHTSwas78%amongTeaPartyadherents,67%amongmen,and63%inruralareas.Regionally,whitesupportforrightswas40%and55%ontheEastandWestcoasts,56%and60%intheMidwestandSouth.) Asforpublicattitudestowardpossiblefuturepolicies,evenafterNewtown,only37%ofthetotalpopulationsaidthatgunownershipputpeople’ssafetyatrisk(56%ofDemocrats,21%ofRepublicans).However,onparticularrestrictions,65%saidthatallowingcitizenstoownassaultweaponsmakesthecountrymoredangerous(Democrats80%,Republicans50%).63%favoredbanninghigh-capacityammunitionclips(Democrats62%,Republicans46%)and56%favoredbanningparticularlydestructivebullets(Democrats62%,Republicans51%).Only44%favoredbanningsemi-automaticguns(Democrats51%,Republicans38%)andonly28%favoredbanninghandguns(Democrats45%,Republicans14%). COMMENTARY3 ThefirstthirdofthissectionreportssomeexpertcommentaryonthepoliticallandscapeforguncontrolafterNewtown.ThemiddlethirdfocusesonpresidentObama’scommentaryontheNewtownincident.Finally,thelastthirdreportssomecommentaryonObama’sperformance. AsObamahimselfsaid,thisisalreadythefourthtimeduringhisfirsttermthathehashadtorespondtoalocalguntragedy.Asmostcommentatorshavenoted,thefirstthreetimes,hewasextremelyeffectiveatexpressingthenation’sgrief,buthesaidnothingaboutwhatshouldbedonetopreventfutureincidents,excepttocallfora“nationalconversation,”whichdidnotoccur.Inparticular,previouslyhehadsaidnothingaboutguncontrol,presumablyoutofpoliticalprudence.ThatreticenceMAYhavecontributedtohisreelection.Nevertheless,nowthathehasalreadybeenreelected,manyobserversthinkheshoulddosomethingaboutguns.ReportedlyObamahimselfalreadyplannedtointroducesomegunlegislationduringhissecondterm,forexampleattemptingtorestorethebanonassaultweapons. Obama’scommentsontheNewtownincidentseemextremelystudied,carefullyreflectinghisassessmentoftheprospectsforguncontrolandthebestwaytogoaboutit.Evidentlythatassessmentwasinformedbyhisexperiencethroughouthisfirstterm:Basicallyitiscongressnotthepresidentwhomustformulateandpasslegislation.WithRepublicansalwayspoisedtomobilizeagainsthim,Obamahastobecarefulabouttheextenttowhichheendorsesanyparticularcourseofaction.SoatfirsthiscommentsonNewtownamountedtoconstructinga“form,”withblanksthathewasinvitingotherstofillin.Itisworthfollowingtheevolutionofhiscommentsbecausetheyare,ofcourse,animportantpartofthereactionofAmericanpoliticstotheNewtownincident. Expertcommentary3.1 EarlyonSaturdaymorningIhappenedtohearsomeastutecommentaryontheBBCWorldService(the121215broadcastofWeekend,thefirststoryinboththe0700GMTand0800GMThours).OntheBBC,RobertSpitzerelaboratedexpertlyonwhatmostpoliticalcommentatorsthoughtatthetime:EvenaftertheNewtownincident,ifthereisanyroomforcontrollingguns,itwillbeverysmall,becauseofthedominancethattheGunLobbyhasachievedinthispolicydomain.ItMIGHTbepossibletofurtherrestricttheaccesstogunsofmentallyillpeopleandtorestrictthepurchaseofgunsandammunitionovertheinternetwithoutanychecksonthebackgroundonthepurchaser.Buteventhiswillbedifficult,becausetheGunLobbyhasa“lock”ontheRepublicanparty,whichcanblockreformintheHouse.AnotherAmericancommentatorthennotedthattheGunLobbyhasa“lock”onmanyDemocratsaswell:therelativelyconservativeonesthat,inthelastseveralelections,thepartypromotedinrelativelyconservativeconstituenciesinordertotakeseatsfromRepublicans.(ThatsecondcommentatorwasAmericanjournalistCatherineMayer,whocurrentlyrunstheEuropeanoperationsofTimemagazine.) Spitzercontinued:NotonlyhastheGunLobbyintimidatedmostpoliticiansintobeingafraidtoraisethepossibilityofcontrollingguns,italsohassucceededindefiningthetermsofdiscourseontheissue,turningattentionawayfrom“gunwrongs”(theharmthatgunsdotopeople)to“gunrights”(guaranteedbytheSecondAmendmenttotheAmericanConstitution).TheGunLobbyhassucceededindenyingthatgunrightsCAUSEgunwrongsandlargelysucceededindenyingtoothersthepossibilityofpointingoutthatcausalconnection.Thegunlobbyhasevensucceededinmakingit“politicallyincorrect,”intheaftermathofaguntragedy,toraisetheissueofwhattodoaboutgunviolence:Todosowoulddisplaylackrespectandsympathyforthevictims! Obama’scomments3.2 Allofthismightseemexcessivelypessimisticexceptthat,initsinitialreactionstotheNewtownincident,theObamaadministrationstuckalmostexactlytothatscript!Immediatelyafterthetragedy,Obamamostlyexpressedonlysympathy.DepartingSLIGHTLYfromhisresponsetopreviousincidents,heDIDstatebrieflythat“Asacountry,wehavebeenthroughthistoomanytimes.....Andwe'regoingtohavetocometogetherandtakemeaningfulactiontopreventmoretragedieslikethis,regardlessofthepolitics.”Buthedidn’tsayWHATaction.Andhisspokespersonsoonaddedthat“nowwasnotthetime”toconsiderthat! (SeeReidWilson121214“StoppinggunviolencestartswithObama”atnationaljournal.com.OninitialreactionfromcongressseeFawnJohnson121214“Muchgrief,butlittleactionfromcongressonguns”atnationaljournal.com.AndJonathanAllen121216“AfterConnecticutschoolshooting,Washingtonquietonguncontrol”atpolitico.com.AlsoChrisCillizza121216“Thegundebate:AretheNewtown,Conn.,killingsatippingpoint?”atwashingtonpost.com.Themulti-billionairemayorofNewYork–whoin2012launchedasuperPACtosupportcandidateswhoadvocateguncontrolandwilldothesamein2014–immediatelycalledonObamatoleadonthisissue:SeanSullivan121216“Bloomberg:GuncontrolshouldbeObama’s‘numberoneagenda’”atwashingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix.Forapoliticalsciencetakeonmediacoverage,seeDannyHayes“Themediawillquicklyforgetaboutguns—unlessWashingtonstopsthem”atwashingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog.) Obama’ssecondmajorcommentonthisincidentcameonSundayeveninginabriefspeechinNewtownattheendofamemorialserviceforthevictims.Obamasaidthathehad“beenreflectingonthisthelastfewdays”andconcludedthat“wewillhavetochange.”ThistimehedweltmuchlongeronAmerica’sfailuretopreventsuchincidentsandpledgedthat“Inthecomingweeks,Iwillusewhateverpowerthisofficeholdstoengagemyfellowcitizens...inaneffortaimedatpreventingmoretragedieslikethis.”Thisimplicitlynotedthathemighthavetoactlargelyonhisown,becausethelegislaturemightnotbeabletodomuch.Hemayalsohavebeennotingthatthepowersofpresidentsareactuallyquitelimited–ithasbeensaid,tothe“powerofpersuasion,”ofwhichthisspeechbyObamawasamasterlyexercise.(Interestingly,theWhiteHousedidnotforegroundthephrasesquotedaboveintheexcerptfromObama’sremarksthatitpostedonitswebsite,emphasizingsympathyinstead:“Newton,you’renotalone.”) Nevertheless,ObamaSTILLdidnotexplicitlymentionguns,orAmerica’slaxcontrolofthem.Orhowtostrengthencontrolthroughlegislation.Evidentlytheveryword“gun”stillremainedtoocontroversialtoutter!Moreover,Obamaspecifiedthe“fellowcitizens”towhomhereferredasranging“fromlawenforcementtomentalhealthprofessionalstoparentsandeducators”–butNOTtothecongressthatcouldproducenewlegislationonguns!MostcommentatorsassumedthatimplicitlyObamaWASreferringtogunlegislation.Evidentlyhewastryingto“leadfrombehind”:creatingblankstoencourageotherstofillthemin,andwaitingforOTHERStodothat,sothatanyassociationofHIMwiththeirformulationswouldnotjeopardizethoseformulations. (OnthestilldimprospectforcongressionalactionseeCharlieCook121217“WhytheNRAIsstillsostrongevenafterNewtownshootings”atnationaljournal.com/columns.) Obama’sperformance3.3 Inhisinitialremarks,Obamahadsaidthat,asduringpreviousincidents,“IreactnotasaPresident,butasanybodyelsewould--asaparent.”OnBBCWeekend(atthebeginningofthe0800GMThour),theAmericanjournalistMayerremarkedacerbiclythatshedidNOTwantObamatoreactasaparent,butasPRESIDENT–inotherwords,sayingwhatheproposedtodoabouttheproblem.Mayersaidthathergriefhadalreadyturnedtoanger(andnotonlyattheshooter):Shefearedthat,asinpreviousincidents,everyonewouldbeemotionally“moved”butthatwouldnotresultinany“movement”onpolicy.Sheconcludedbyremarkingbitterlythatsheis“acitizenofacountrythatbelievesinpreservingpeople’slibertytokilleachotherwithguns.” Indeed!Frankly,atthattime,IwasequallyfuriousatObama.If,asafterpreviousgunincidents,hehadallowedhisexpressionsofsympathytosubstituteforrealpolicyaction,Iwouldhaveneverforgivenhim!Evenafterhissecondremarks,whichincludedalongandmovingsectionontheneedforaction,ifonewantedtobecynical,onecouldstillaccusehimofcowardice,sincehestilldidn’tevenMENTIONguns!Probablyoneshouldkeepthethreatofsuchcondemnationinthebackofone’smind(andhis).Butinthemeantime,itisimportanttorestrainone’soutrageandinsteadpayattentiontowhathastobedone–designeffectivepoliciesandgetthempassed.However,bothMayerandImayhavebeenmissingakeypoint.AsGossargues,akeyweaknessineliteadvocacyofguncontrolhasbeenafailureto“frame”theissueintermsthatmasspublicsfindcompelling.Controladvocateseventuallyrecognizedthatfailureandbegan“framing”theissueasoneofparents’concernforthesafetyoftheirchildren,somethingtowhichordinaryAmericanscanreadilyrelate.Intentionallyorotherwise,thatiswhatObamawasdoing,veryeffectively. (OnwhatObamacandoaboutguns,seeReidJ.EpsteinandJoshGerstein121218“PresidentObama'soptionsonguncontrol”atpolitico.com.Furtheronpossiblenewguncontrolmeasures,see121217“Whatguncontrolcouldlooklike”atnpr.organdSarahKliff121215“Whatwould‘meaningfulaction’onguncontrollooklike?”atwashingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog. SpecificallyonthemostlethalweaponusedatNewtown,see121220“Assault-styleweaponsinthecivilianmarket”atnpr.org.AlsoBradPlumer121217“Everythingyouneedtoknowabouttheassaultweaponsban,inonepost”atwashingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog.) EXPLANATION4 ThissectionaskstowhatextentpoliticalscientistshaveEXPLAINEDanythingaboutthepolicypoliticssurroundingguns.Bywayofintroduction,wenotethatexplanationcanbehighlypolitical:aspoliticalactorschoose“frames”throughwhichtoviewguns,whattheychoosetoexplainandhowtheychoosetoexplainitcanbeanimportantpartoftheirpoliticalstrategy.ThenthefirstthirdofthesectionfocusesonrecentanalysesthatrelategunpoliticstobasiccharacteristicsofAmericanpolitics.Themiddlethirdsketcheshowonemightanalyzegunpoliticsasacombinationofsecurity,identity,andeconomicissues.Thelastthirdnotesolderapproaches:onethattreatsgunpoliticsasa“socialregulatory”issue,andonethatcouldtreatitasanexampleofpoliticsavoidinganissue.ThisPostdoesNOTaddresstheimportantrelatedquestionsofhowtoexplainhowanyindividualcouldcommitsuchahorrendouscrime,orhowtoexplaininwhatkindsofinstitutionalsettingssuchcrimestendtooccur. Gunpoliciesandpolitics4.1 Asnotedattheoutset,thekindsofmeasuresthatAmericanpoliticshassucceededinadoptingtoregulategunshavebeenmorepoliticallysymbolicthanpracticallyeffective(Shotsinthedark,asWilliamVizzardcallsthem).InordertopassANYlegislation,advocatesofguncontrolhavehadtomakesomanyconcessionstoadvocatesofgunrightsthattheresultingmeasureshavebeenweakandinconsistent.Comprehensiveregulationofallgunowners,guntransactions,andgunequipmenthasbeenpoliticallyimpossiblebecauseitwouldmobilizetoomuchoppositionbytoomanystakeholders.Solegislationhastriedtodefineafewgunowners,sales,andequipmentas“bad”inordertoregulateonlythose,whileallowingtheirmorenumerous“good”counterpartstoremainunregulated.Ofcourse,suchanarrowingisintendednotonlytominimizepoliticaloppositionbutalsotomaximizeenforcementefficiency.(ThefollowingtwoparagraphssummarizepointsmadeinVizzard2000.) Onthesocialside,thecurrentregulatoryregimefocusesonregularizinga“primarymarket”forgunsales.Regulationsrequirenationallicensingofallgundealersandrequirethosedealerstocheckthepersonalbackgroundsofprospectivegunbuyersbyconsultingrelevantgovernmentdatabases.Theaimofthechecksistoidentify“bad”buyerssuchasconvictedcriminals,thementallyunstable,ortheunderage,whoshouldbedeniedpurchase.However,theexistingregulatoryregimehasmanydefects.First,evenasregardsprimarymarkets,regulationdoesnotprovideaworkabledefinitionof“gundealer.”Second,relevantdatabasesonpotentialbuyersremainincomplete.Third,thelawdoesnotrequirethatdataontransactionsandequipmentbecompiledintoanationaldatabasethatwouldactuallyassistinenforcingregulations.(Proponentsofgunrightsfearthatsuchadatabasewouldamounttoanationalregistrationsystemthat,oneday,mightenablethenationalgovernmenttoconfiscategunsfromallowners.)Fourth,currentregulationallowsahuge“loophole,”permittingsalesatgunshowswherebackgroundchecksarenotrequired.Gunshowsareonlyapartofalargeunregulated“secondarymarket”thataccountsfor40%-50%oflegalgunsales!Fifth,currentregulationdoesnotaddress“tertiarymarkets”ofsurreptitioussalesbyunlicensedsellerstounrecordedbuyers.Acrossallthreetypesofmarkets,legalandillegalsalesofgunsaresointertwinedastoconfoundenforcement.Licenseddealerssellfromtheprimarymarketintothesecondarymarket,andgunsleakfreelyfromthesecondarymarketintotheteriarymarket.Besides,mostpeoplewhomightwanttouseaguncansimplyborrowonefromsomeone. Furtheronthetechnicalside,Vizzardnotesthatregulationcanaddress(1)carrying,storage,anduse(2)accessbyspecificcategoriesof“bad”persons(3)marketingandregistration(4)typesof“bad”gunsand(5)severityofsentencingforviolationsofgunlaws.Overall,becausenationalgunlegislationoccursonlyinfrequently,thenationallegislatureneithermaintainsnorcommissionsrelevantexpertiseonsuchthingsashowgunsareactuallyusedandhowgunmarketsactuallywork.Forexample,thehaphazardwayinwhichregulationshavedefined“bad”gunshasallowedmanufacturerstomakeonlynominalchangesthathaveeasilymovedproblematicweaponsoutofthe“bad”categoryintothepermissible. Goss’s2006bookDisarmed–ontherelativeabsenceofamassmovementforguncontrolinAmerica–elaboratesthepoliticalsideofVizzard’sanalysis.ShearguesthatadvocatesofgunRIGHTShavedonethemasspoliticalworknecessarytoinfluencenationallegislation,whileadvocatesofgunCONTROLhavenot.Conservativegunadvocates“startedlocal”andframedissuesinawaythatappealedtomasssupporters.Theyproceededincrementallyandmadesmallgainsthatrewardedthosesupporters.Liberalguncriticspursuedreformsatanationallevelandframedtheissuesinelitetermsthatdidnotconnectwithmasspublics.Theyattemptedlargereformsandassumeditwasobviousthattheircausewasmorallycompellingandthereforedidnotneedongoingsmallrewardstobuildmasssupport.This“rationalnational”strategyreliedonthepersuasivenessofgoodpoliciesinsteadoftheleverageofgoodpolitics.Itwasaninsidestrategywithoutanoutsidestrategy,anditfailed.(SubsequentlyGosshasprovidedasimilarexplanationofthefailureofwomen’srightsadvocatestogainpassageofanEqualRightsAmendment(KristinA.Goss2012TheParadoxofGenderEquality:HowAmericanWomen'sGroupsGainedandLostTheirPublicVoiceAnnArborMI:UniversityofMichiganPress,256pages.) Policytype:SocietalFunction Whatkindofapolicyissueisguncontrol?Therearetwomainaspectstocategorizingpolicies:thekindofsocietalfunctionthatthepolicyisintendedtoperformandthepatternofpoliticsthatthestruggleoverthepolicyproduces.Withinthosetwoaspects,anyparticularpolicyislikelytobebasicallyonetypeoranother,butislikelytoresembleothertypesaswell.Moreover,typemayvaryovertime.(Forrelevanttypologies,pleaseseePost121212.) Fromthepointofviewofsocietalfunction,therearethreemaintypesofissues:SECURITYversusECONOMYversusIDENTITY.Itiscertainlytruethat,sincetheoutbreakof“culturewar”inthe1970s,Americanpoliticshasprocessedgunsasanideologicallypolarized“moral”orIdentityissue,asmainstreamAmericanpoliticalsciencenowtreatsit.However,gunsdifferfromothermoralissuesinthatgunsthemselvesarenotanintrinsicallymoralmatterlikeabortionorgaymarriage.Beforethe1970sgunswereatleastpartlyaneconomicissue:gunlobbieshelpedcraftvariouseconomicallyprotectionistmeasurestoassistthegunindustryandeventokenguncontrolstopreemptmoredrasticcontrols.BeforeTHATgunswerelargelyasecurityissue:fromthebeginningofthecolonialperiod,settlersusedgunsasweaponsagainstNativeAmericans,duringtheRevolutionaryperiodtheyusedgunsasweaponsagainsttheBritishand,fromthebeginningoftheRepublic,whitesmadesurethatblacksdidnothaveguns. Thus,inthefirstinstance,arguablythegundomaincentersonOrderfunctionsandposesaSECURITYissuewitha“securitylogic”ofthreatandfear.Indeed,Spitzer’stextbook,whichbeginsbytreatinggunsasamoralissue,endsupbyarguingthattheirbasicdynamicisa“securitydilemma”inwhichinsecurityleadstodefensivemeasuresthatfurtherheighteninsecurity,andsoon.Inpolitics,perhapsavariantofthatisthedynamicaccordingtowhichdefendersofgunrightsviewANYregulationofgunsasasteptowardtheirultimatenightmareoftotalConfiscationandProhibition.Themainanalysisbyasecurityprofessional(Vizzard2000)identifiestwocontending“frames”ingunpoliticsthatIwouldplaceinthe“securitysector,”atthemicro-individualandmacro-politicallevels,respectively.(Vizzardidentifiesotherframesthat,below,Iplaceinothersectors,alsoateithermicroormacrolevels.) TheframeusedbymostAmericansisthemicro-securityCRIMECONTROLFRAMEelaboratedbyprofessionalcriminologistsandpracticedbypolice,clearlyasecurityissue.Puttinggunsinthatframeusuallysuggeststhatgunsfacilitatecrimesbyindividualsandthereforeshouldbecontrolledtoprotectotherindividuals–includingpolicethemselves,whostronglyadvocateguncontrol.Nevertheless,withinthecrimecontrolframe,opponentsofguncontrolareemphaticthat“gunsdon’tcommitcrimes,peopledo.”Theactualrelationshipbetweengunsandcrime,andbetweenactualcrimeratesandpublicfearofcrime,involvesmanyfraughtquestions.Forexample,conspicuousincreaseincrimeraisespublicfears,butevenrathersignificantDECREASEincrimedoesnotnecessarilyREDUCEfears(asthelargefallincrimeinthelate1990sdidnot). Overall,socialscienceresearchhotlydisputestherelationshipsbetweenlevelofgunsandlevelofviolentcrime.Someevenarguethattherelationshipisactuallyinverse(JohnR.Lott1998Moreguns,lesscrime:understandingcrimeandgun-controllaws.ChicagoIL:UniversityofChicagoPress,225pages).Here“moreguns”referstovariationacrossAmericancountiesinthepermissibilityofcarryingguns.(OnLott’sclaimsseeGlennKessler121217“Doconcealed-weaponlawsresultinlesscrime?”atwashingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker.) Thiscontroversialresearchremainscurrentlyrelevantbecauseevensomecommentatorswhoarenotcommittedadvocatesofgunrightsarenowwonderingwhether,giventheinabilityofgovernmenttoprotectcitizensfromguns,governmentshouldallowcitizenstousegunstoprotectthemselves.(Forexample,JeffreyGoldberg1212“Thecaseformoreguns(andmoreguncontrol)”atatlantic.com.)ThisisastandardNRAargument,repeatedattheendofthisweekbytheNRAhead:“Theonlythingthatprotectsagainstabadguywithagunisagoodguywithagun.”Soherecommendedmoreguns:AnarmedpolicemanineveryschoolinAmerica!ButNOTcontrolofgunsthemselves!Fromthispointofview,thepreferenceofmostschoolstobe“gunfreezones”issimplyirresponsibleandactuallyreprehensible!(Fortheskepticalreactionofanopponentoftheguncontrolresponseapreviousguntragedy,seeJacobSullum120725“Outrageisnotanargument:PoliticiansshouldresistdemandstodosomethingaboutgunsinresponsetotheAuroramassacre”atreason.com.) Othersocialscientistshavefoundmethodologicalfaultswithresearchpurportingtoprovetheprotectivebenefitsofgunsandthemselvesdoneresearchthathasreachedoppositeconclusions.Thesedisagreementsareoftentechnicalonesthatthisauthorcannotevaluate.Inanycase,theconventionalwisdom,nowpurveyedbymainstreammediaisthathavingagunismorelikelytoresultininjurythaninprotection.Forexample,themotheroftheNewtownshooterownedguns,andthosewerewhatenabledhersontokillherandothers.(ThechapterinWilson2007on“Statisticsandfirearms”providesafairassessmentofresearchclaimsaboutthecostsandbenefitsofgunsincausingorpreventingviolence.) Atthe“macro-security”levelistheSOVEREIGNTY/RIGHTSFRAME.Again,thiscanbeusedtoargueeitherfororagainstguncontrol.ProponentsofguncontrolCOULDusetheSOVEREIGNTYsideofthatframetoargueinfavorofguncontrol:themostbasicresponsibilityofamodernstateistomaintainamonopolyofcoercionwithinitsjurisdictionandtherebyguaranteelawandordertoitscitizens.Toachievethat,astatemustcontrolguns.ThatistheusualpositioninWesterncountries.Nevertheless,inAmerica,politiciansseldomemphasisthatargument,becauseitimpliesexactlywhatgunloversmostfear,thatthegovernmentwillconfiscatetheirguns.Meanwhile,opponentsofguncontrolusetheRIGHTSsideofthesovereignty/rightsframetoarguethatguncontrolviolatesAmericantradition:inrebellingagainsttheBritish,Americansestablishedtheprinciplethatcitizensneedgunsinordertodefendthemselvesagainst“tyranny.”Fromthesovereigntyside,twoanti-gunlawyershaverecentlyexaminedthispro-guncontention,arguingthat–asonemightexpect!–gunrights“insurrectionism”isincompatiblewithdemocracy(JoshuaHorwitzandCaseyAnderson2009Guns,democracyandtheinsurrectionistidea.AnnArbor,MI:UniversityofMichiganPress,274pages.) GunscanalsobecomeanIDENTITYissue,partofthe“culturewars”betweenAmerica’sliberalcoastsanditsconservativeinterior,andpartoftheaccompanyingpartisanwarsbetweenDemocratsandRepublicans.VizzardrecognizesbothofthesewarsintwoofhisotherframesthroughwhichAmericanpoliticsviewsgunissues:hismicro-individualCULTUREFRAMEandmacro-partisanSYMBOLICFRAME.IdentitycanexplainbetterthanSecuritywhygunadvocatesaresoadamantaboutnotallowingrestrictionsonguns.Moreover,asnotedunderBACKGROUND,boththeregional-culturaldivisionsandtheircorrespondencetopartisanalignmentsareconfirmedbyPewpolls.Sinceneithersidewillsubside,latitudefortighteningrestrictionsongunsislikelytoremainsmall.Mostcharacterizationsofgunaffairsasamoralissueblameideologicalmoralizationforpoliticalpolarization,implyingthedesirabilityofmoreempiricalapproaches.However,afewauthorsmaketheoppositepoint:GunaffairsDOinvolvesignificantmoraldisagreementsthatactuallycanbeobscuredbypurelycausalanalysis.Suchprincipleddisagreementscanberesolvedonlythroughconstructivemoraldebate.(SeeforexampleChristopherEisgruberinHarcourted.2003.) GunsaretosomeextentalsoanECONOMICissue.Certainlyguncompaniesandgundealerswanttomakemoney,andofcoursetheirdesiretosellasmanygunsaspossiblecontributestothegunproblem.Some“guncontrol”measuresmayhavebeenintroducedlessprotectthepublicfromgunsandmoretoprotectdomesticmanufacturersfromforeigncompetitionthan.Protectorsofthegunindustrymayevenhaveintroducedlaxregulationsinordertopreemptmorestringentones.Moreover,theindustryhasbeenabletoforestallregulationofmanyproductsthatconstitutehazardstopublic“healthandsafety,”asincreasingliabilitysuitsagainstguncompaniesclaimIn2005theindustryevenobtainednationallegislationprotectingitfromsuchsuits.Anothersenseinwhichgunscanberegardedashavingan“economic”logicisVizzard’sPUBLICHEALTHFRAME.Ashesays,thelogicofthatframeisantitheticaltothesovereigntyframe:“insteadoflawandrights...thelanguageofutility,risk,andsocialcosts.”(9).Soperhapsgunscanbeanalyzedasanordinaryeconomicissueafterall.Nevertheless,fewotherEconomicproductsproducesuchspectaculartragedies,afterwhichmostotherproductsareregulated.ArguablyonlytheSecurity–andparticularlytheIdentity–aspectsofthegunissuefullyexplainthedifficultyofgettinggunissuesontothepoliticalagenda. (ForcriticismofthegunindustryseeTomDiaz1999Makingakilling:ThebusinessofgunsinAmerica.NewYorkNY:TheNewPress,258pages.Foranupdateonthetrendtowardmarketingmilitaryweaponstocivilians,seeTomDiaz2013(June)Thelastgun:ChangesinthegunindustryarekillingAmericansandwhatitwilltaketostopit.NewYorkNY:TheNewPress,224pages.ForreactionagainstthegunindustryimmediatelyafterNewtown,seeBradPlumerandDavidA.Fahrenthold121218“Gunindustryrecoilsfromhorror”atwashingtonpost.com.Onliabilitysuits,seeTimothyD.Lytoned.2005Suingthegunindustry:Abattleatthecrossroadsofguncontrolmasstorts.AnnArborMI:UniversityofMichiganPress,418pages.) Policytype:Politicalpatterns InLowi’smain1964scheme,policiesareeitherdistributive,regulatory,orredistributive.Originally,hetreatedmostly“mainstream”economicissuesthatpoliticiansandpublicsprocessinaninstrumentalandcalculativeway.Lowiregards“social”issuesasregulatory,sincetheyinvolveimposingparticularbehaviorsonindividuals,ultimatelybycoercion.LaterLowielaboratedhisframeworktoencompassthe“radical”aspectof“moral”issues,theaspectthatcausesactorstoprocesssuchissuesinexpressiveandnormativeways.(SeehisprefacetosuccessiveeditionsofRaymondTatelovichandByronW.Daynes2006MoralcontroversiesinAmericanpolitics,3rdeditionArmonkNY:M.E.Sharpe,292pages.)Sincethen,heandhisfollowershaveclassifiedthegunissueassucha“socialregulatory”issue.FollowingLowi’s1964ambitions,theeditorsoftherelevantvolumesuggestavarietyofpatternsthatsuchpoliciesdisplay,includingwhereandhowwithinAmericanpoliticstheytendtobeprocessed.Spitzerconcludesthatgunpoliticsdoesindeeddisplaymostofthosecharacteristics(bothinhischapterintheTatelovichandDaynesvolumeandinhisowntextbookongunpolitics).Reordered,butinSpitzer’swords,thesepatternsare:(FromSpitzer2012,16-17) PRESIDENTIALLEADERSHIPplaysarelativelymarginalroleandoperatesprimarilyonthesymboliclevel. CONGRESSismoreheavilyinvolvedinthiskindofissuethanthepresident,butittendstosupportthestatusquo,oftenfollowingtheleadofstatelegislaturesinsteadofsettingthecourseforthestates. TheCOURTSprovideakeyavenuefordefiningandchangingtheissue. FEDERALGOVERNMENTAGENCIESexerciselimitedcontrolandjurisdictionovertheissue,andpoliticalwindsfromCongress,thepresidentandinterestgroupsbuffettheseagencies. FEDERALISMdefinesthestructureandpoliticsoftheissue.Thatis,unlikemanyissuesonwhichthefederalgovernmenthasbecometheprimaryactor,stateandlocalgovernmentscontinuetooperatewithahighdegreeofautonomyandcontrol,eveninthepresenceoffederalregulations. ThePOLITICALPARTIESgenerallyseektoexploitdifferencesoversocialregulatorypolicy,withRepublicansusingsuchissuestomobilizeconservativesandDemocratsseekingtomobilizeliberals. SINGLE-ISSUEGROUPSareprevalentinthepoliticsoftheissue,andtheybehaveinanabsolutist,polarizingfashion;thatis,theyaresingularlystrident,theyseekanddefendextremepositions,andtheyarereluctanttocompromise. RallyingandmobilizingPUBLICOPINIONbehindchangeisdifficult;atthesametime,forchangetooccur,itmustbelinkedtoanddrawsupportfromsocial/communitynormsandvalues. Nodoubtthisishelpful.Nevertheless,personallyIwouldlooknotonlyforregulativepatternsinthemoralaspectoftheseissues,butalsoforpossibledistributiveandredistributivepatterns,notonlyinthemoralaspect,butintheirsecurityandeconomicaspectsaswell.Forexample,intheguncase,theMoral/Identityaspectperseisquiteredistributive:conservativesfearthatprogressivesaretakingtheidentityofAmericaawayfromthemand“redistributing”ittoprogressives.TheSecurityaspectisalsoquiteredistributive:Gunadvocatesbecamesoinsistentinthe1970sbecausetheyfearedthatinner-cityblackswerearmingthemselves,redistributingsecurityawayfromwhitestoblacks(whoofcoursesawittheotherwayaround).Moreover,gunadvocatesnowfearthatgunopponentswanttotaketheirsecurityawayfromThemandredistributeittoOthers.TheEconomicaspectofgunpolitics,inadditiontotheregulatorypatternpositedabove,mayevenhavesomeminordistributivepatterns. Finally,thefactthatguncontrolisusuallykeptoffthenationalpoliticalagendacanberelatedtoastillearlierstrandinAmericanpoliticalsciencethatstressesthesignificanceofthefactthatsomeimportantissuesareNOTonthepoliticalagenda.Thisstrandaroseinstudiesoflocalpolitics.RobertDahlhadstudiedhowdecisionsweremadeinthecityofNewHaven.Everyoneadmiredthestudy,butsomecomplainedthathehadneglectedissuesthatthecitygovernmenthadnotevenconsidered,eventhoughmanyresidentsmighthavewantedittodoso.Thereensuedaliteratureon“non-decisions.”MyfavoritebookinthatstrandisMathewCrenson1971Theunpoliticsofairpollution:Astudyofnon-decisionmakinginthecities.BaltimoreMD:JohnsHopkinsPress,227pages.Crensonstudiedatowninwhichthemainindustrywashighlypolluting.Despitetheobviousnessoftheproblem,“private-regarding”industrialistsranthetownandsomanagedtokeepthepollutionissueoffthetownagenda.Nevertheless,graduallysome“publicregarding”institutionssuchasnewspapersgainedstrengthonthebasisofotherpublic-regardingissues.Theorganizationalcompositionofthetowngraduallyshiftedfromprivate-regardingtowardpublic-regarding.Finally,whenaparticularlybadincidentofpollutionoccurred,thepublic-regardinginstitutionsmanagedtoputpollutiononthetownpoliticalagendaandsucceededinlimitingpollution.TheissueofguncontrolinAmericannationalpoliticshassomesimilaritiestotheearly“non-issue”stageofthepollutionissue. EVALUATION5 Finally,somethingCOMPLETELYdifferent!ArecentbookbyaFinnishphilosopherwantstobanishviolencefromsociety(JohannaOksala2012Foucault,politics,andviolence.EvanstonILL:NorthwesternUniversityPress,189pages).FollowinglateFoucault,shearguesthatanecessaryfirststepisto“deconstruct”existingpositivisticaccountsofviolencethat“naturalize”itasaninevitableaspectofhumansociety(thinkHobbes).Instead,sheargues,differentsocietieshavedifferentnotionsof“violence”thatare“sociallyconstructed”throughpoliticalstruggle.Thatmakesthosenotionsvulnerabletophilosophicalcritique(and,presumably,correctivepoliticalstruggle).Allofthismaysoundratherabstract,andis.Nevertheless,itsoundlyproblematizesparticularnotionsofviolenceand,byimplication,particularsolutionssuchas“guncontrol.”Moreover,Oksala’sformulationinvitesonetonoticethatexplicatingthedifferent“frames”throughwhichAmericanpoliticsapproachesgunproblemsisactually–aspracticalauthorslikeVizzardmightNOTchoosetoputit–anecessary“post-structuralist”exercisein“socialdeconstruction.”
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Is it possible? 精子(X/Y+Y)=male,精子(X+X)=female
forrestlin 2012-10-16 23:57
看到一则消息,如下: 利用干细胞培养精子卵子 北京时间10月11日消息,据国外媒体报道,对干细胞的研究已经引起科学界的极大兴趣,这其中的部分原因是它和生育和基因方面存在的紧密联系。然而,在解决人类面临的生育挑战面前,这一方面的研究也引发了巨大的争议,其中尤其引发严重争议的是使用干细胞技术实现男同性恋群体生育问题的研究。 目前在世界上有一部分实验室的科学家们正致力于从人类的卵细胞中制造出基因特征完全属于男性的细胞。与此同时,也有一些科学家真尝试从卵细胞中合成精细胞。如果这些研究产生有意义的结果,那么这对于那些希望拥有属于自己的孩子的男同性恋或女同性恋夫妇将是一个天大的好消息。不过这样一项技术的进展和应用将面临巨大的政治,宗教和伦理争议性。社会上有很多持有较传统或保守观点的人士反对同性生殖,但是同性恋人群,以及社会上另外很大一部分公众则认为任何人,包括同性恋群体,都应当享有在技术条件允许的情况下拥有属于自己的“生物学后代”的权利。 目前关于同性生殖的研究进展 目前关于实现同性生殖的技术尚在研发之中,不过这项技术最终取得成功的前景是相当明了的。其中包括了细胞重编程技术,甚至人工染色体改造技术。但是目前这项技术还尚无成功演示的纪录,不过它确实拥有很大的潜力。其中有一项技术是利用人体干细胞,从中制造出精子。在最近的一项实验中,科学家们从人体中抽取骨髓干细胞,随后将其培养成精原细胞。这些细胞最终可以演化成为成熟的精细胞。这项技术进展在全球各地的报纸上都进行了广泛的报道,不过后来这项实验的论文却并未能得到发表,其它科学家也未能重复其实验。 在另一项实验中,精原细胞经过处理后开始减数分裂。尽管就这项实验来说,研究人员们目前还尚未能获得最终的结果,但是来自巴西的一组科学家宣称他们已经成功地利用胚胎干细胞培养出了精子和卵子。不管这些卵子最终究竟能不能繁育出正常的后代,这都将是该项实验技术上的重大进展。这些实验证明同性生殖的可能性是存在的,这种可能性或许将引发该领域内更多的进一步研究工作。 对于安全的顾虑 对于干细胞研究而言,安全是一个非常重要的方面。并且对这一方面重要性的强调在针对同性生殖这一话题时就愈发显得重要。当细胞被激活开始发生改变,很有可能会发生这样的情况,就是细胞变得不受控制,最终成为癌细胞。在改造染色体的过程中也存在着巨大的安全风险,因为无法保证在此过程中完全不出现异常的染色体,这样的人工染色体在使用的过程之中就会出现各种问题。 关于干细胞和同性生育方面的矛盾争议 不幸的是,由于在政治上,宗教上以及伦理上存在的巨大争议性,通往实现同性繁育的道路还非常漫长。极端保守的宗教团体正强烈反对同性恋现象,因此毫不意外地,他们也强烈反对任何同性生育的做法。这就意味着即便同性生育在技术上变得可行,仍然将有巨大的阻碍横亘面前。 对这个问题,我觉得干细胞的路还很漫长,而从另一个角度来思考,可能会柳暗花明。 两个精子是否可以代替一个精子一个卵子的受精模式,而发育成个体那?理论上,这似乎是可行的。呵呵,又开始做梦了。 从遗传学上好好想想,精子的性染色体或者为X,或者为Y,而卵子的性染色体只是X,因此才说,生男(XY)生女(XX)不是女人能决定的,而是男人。简单思考,X与X相遇,就是女;X与Y相遇,就是男。那么,从这一点上说,是不是就单纯精子就可以完成这个任务那?精子(X)与精子(X)相遇,就是女;精子(X)与精子(Y)相遇,就是男,岂不简单。但是,似乎还有一种情况,就是精子(Y)与精子(Y)相遇,那会是什么那?估计还是男,因为SRY决定性别,而只在Y上并成显性。 想到一个新奇的实验,不知道有没有人做过。精子与精子受精,有个问题就是营养不良,因为精子的细胞质太少了,难以提供受精卵的发育。那么,是否可以用一个体细胞的细胞质来代替那? 把体细胞去核,把两个精子细胞的细胞质转入体细胞质,然后再进行诱导,就像iPSc一样,是否会出现神奇的事情哪? 睡觉了!
个人分类: Critical Thinking|1910 次阅读|0 个评论
R语言:Project Euler Problem 31
itellin 2012-9-22 18:56
In England the currency is made up of pound, , and pence, p, and there are eight coins in general circulation: 1p, 2p, 5p, 10p, 20p, 50p, 1 (100p) and 2 (200p). It is possible to make 2 in the following way: 1 1 + 1 50p + 2 20p + 1 5p + 1 2p + 3 1p How many different ways can 2 be made using any number of coins? mat = cbind(matrix(1,201,1),matrix(0,201,7)) coins = c(1,2,5,10,20,50,100,200) for ( i in 1:201) { for (j in 2:ncol(mat)) { if ( i coins ) { mat = mat + mat mat = mat + mat ,j] } else { mat = mat } } } mat 73682
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风力汽车
putin24 2012-8-16 21:35
风力汽车
Blackbird Rick Cavallaro via Wired Which soundsweird but actually makes perfect sense. A couple of years back, Rick Cavallaro and his wind-powered car--Blackbird--silenced an online debate about whether its possible for a wind-powered vehicle to move downwind faster than the speed of the wind itself by going out and outrunning the wind. Now, Cavallaro and company have reconfigured their car to travel upwind and proved that it’s possible to travel upwind at more than twice the speed of the headwind, setting what has to be a record for upwind terrestrial sailing. That’s not quite as big of a bombshell as the downwind run back in 2010, in which a lingering and sometimes vitriolic physics debate was quashed when Cavallaro recorded downwind speeds at 2.86 times the speed of the wind. But this time he’s managed to log 2.01 times the speed of the wind going upwind--still a significant feat. And also a counter-intuitive feat, though when you really think about it the physics are the same as a sailboat tacking upwind. The turbine blades act as sails, turning to create power. Rather than having a keel to counteract the push of the headwind and maintain the proper upwind direction, Blackbird’s transmission and wheels have been designed to do that job.
个人分类: 技术研究|4841 次阅读|1 个评论
[转载]How to Live Unhappily Ever After不快乐也无妨
liyanwu 2012-5-28 10:11
'I just want to be happy.' I can't think of another phrase capable of causing more misery and permanent unhappiness. With the possible exception of, 'Honey, I'm in love with your youngest sister.' Yet at first glance, it seems so guileless. Children just want to be happy. So do puppies. Happy seems like a healthy, normal desire. Like wanting to breathe fresh air or shop only at Whole Foods. But 'I just want to be happy' is a hole cut out of the floor and covered with a rug. Because once you say it, the implication is that you're not. The 'I just want to be happy' bear trap is that until you define precisely, just exactly what 'happy' is, you will never feel it. Whatever being happy means to you, it needs to be specific and also possible. When you have a blueprint for what happiness is, lay it over your life and see what you need to change so the images are more aligned. Still, this recipe of defining happiness and fiddling with your life to get it will work for some people岸but not for others. I am one of the others. I am not a happy person. There are things that do make me experience joy. But joy is a fleeting emotion, like a very long sneeze. A lot of the time what I feel is, interested. Or I feel melancholy. And I also frequently feel tenderness, annoyance, confusion, fear, hopelessness. It doesn't all add up to anything I would call happiness. But what I'm thinking is, is that so terrible? I know a physicist who loves his work. People mistake his constant focus and thought with unhappiness. But he's not unhappy. He's busy. I bet when he dies, there will be a book on his chest. Happiness is a treadmill of a goal for people who are not happy by nature. Being an unhappy person does not mean you must be sad or dark. You can be interested, instead of happy. You can be fascinated instead of happy. The barrier to this, of course, is that in our super-positive society, we have an unspoken zero-tolerance policy for negativity. Beneath the catchall umbrella of negativity is basically everything that isn't super-positive. Seriously, who among us is having a 'Great!' day every day? Who feels 'Terrific, thanks!' all the time? Anger and negativity have their uses, too. Instead of trying to alleviate some of the uncomfortable and unpleasant emotions you feel by 'trying to be positive,' try being negative instead. Seriously, try it sometime. This will help you get in touch with how you actually feel: 'I feel hopeless and fat and stupid. And like a failure for feeling this way. And trying to be positive and upbeat makes me feel angry and feeling angry makes me feel like I am broken.' If that's how you feel岸however you feel岸then you have a base line, you have established a real solid floor of reference. Sometimes just giving yourself permission to feel any emotion without judgment or censorship can lessen the intensity of those negative emotions. Almost like you're letting them out into the backyard to run around and get rid of some of that energy. A corollary to the idea that we must all be happy and positive all the time is that we must all be 'healed.' When I was 32, somebody I loved died on a plastic-covered twin mattress at a Manhattan hospital. His death was not unexpected and I had prepared myself years in advance, as though studying for a degree. When he died, I was as stunned as if he had been killed by a grand piano falling from the top of a building. I was fully unprepared. I did not know what to do with my physical self. It took me about a year to stop thinking, madly, I might somehow meet him in my sleep. Once I finally believed he was gone, I began the next stage: waiting. Waiting to heal. This lasted several years. The truth about healing is that heal is a television word. Someone close to you dies? You will never heal. What will happen is, for the first few days, the people around you will touch your shoulder and this will startle you and remind you to breathe. You will feel as though you will soon be dead from natural causes; the weight of the grief will be physical and very nearly unbearable. Eventually, you will shower and leave the house. Maybe in a year you will see a movie. And one day somebody will say something and it will cause you to laugh. And you will clamp your hand over your mouth because you laughed and that laugh will break your heart, it will feel like a betrayal. How can you laugh? In time, to your friends, you will appear to have recovered from your loss. All that really happened, you'll think, is that the hole in the center of your life has narrowed just enough to be concealed by a laugh. And yet, you might feel a pressure for it to be true. You might feel that 'enough' time has passed now, that the hole at the center of you should not be there at all. But holes are interesting things. As it happens, we human beings are able to live just fine with many holes of many sizes and shapes. Pleasure, love, compassion, fulfillment; these things do not leak out of holes of any size. So we can be filled with holes and loss and wide expanses of unhealed geography岸and we can also be excited by life and in love and content at the exact same moment. This is among the oldest, deepest, most primal truths: The facts of life may be, at times, unbearably painful. But the core, the bones of life are generous beyond all reason or belief. Those things which ought to kill us do not. This should be taken as encouragement to continue. The truth about healing is that you don't need to heal to be whole. And by whole, I mean damaged, missing pieces of who you were, your heart岸missing what feels like some of your most important parts. And yet, not missing any part of you at all. Being, in truth, larger than you were before. Human experience weighs more than human tissue. 岸Adapted from 'This Is How: Proven Aid in Overcoming Shyness, Molestation, Fatness, Spinsterhood, Grief, Disease, Lushery, Decrepitude More. For Young and Old Alike,' by Augusten Burroughs. To be published Tuesday by St. Martin's. AUGUSTEN BURROUGHS “ 我只想过得快乐。” 我无法想出有其他语言能比这句话更让人陷入痛苦而永久的哀伤。可能有一个例外:“亲爱的,我爱上你的小妹妹了。” F. Martin Ramin for The Wall Street Journal 在我们这个超积极的社会中,有一项不成文的负面情绪零容忍政策。但说真的,我们中谁每天都过得“很棒!”呢? 然而第一眼看上去,这句话是如此诚实。孩子们只想过得快乐。小狗也是如此。快乐看起来是一种健康、平常的欲望。就像希望呼吸新鲜空气或只在全食超市(Whole Foods)购物一样。 但“我只想过得快乐”这句话其实是在地上挖出来又用地毯盖上了的一个洞。因为一旦你说了这句话,其实就意味着你不快乐。“我只想过得快乐”隐含的意思是,在你准确定义“快乐”是什么之前,你永远不会感到快乐。不管快乐对你意味着什么,都需要是具体且可能实现的。当你心中对快乐有一幅蓝图时,请将它铺展在生活中,了解你需要做出何种变化,才能让这幅图画更符合你的期望。 但是,这份定义快乐、掌控生活以获得快乐的处方对某些人管用──却对另一些人不管用。我就是另一些人中的一员。我不是一个快乐的人。有些事确实让我感到快乐。但快乐是一种稍纵即逝的情绪,就像一个长长的喷嚏。许多时候我感到的是,有趣。或者,我也会感到忧郁。我还经常感到亲切、烦恼、混乱、恐惧和绝望。它们加起来并不能叫做快乐。但我所想的是,这就那么可怕吗? 我认识一位热爱工作的物理学家。人们误认为他持之以恒的专注和思考是不快乐。但他并非不快乐。他很忙碌。我猜当他去世时,胸口上会摆着一本书。对于本性不快乐的人来说,快乐是单调乏味的目标,身为不快乐的人,并不意味着你必须悲伤或阴郁。你可以兴致盎然但不快乐。你也可以情醉神迷但不快乐。 当然,这样做的障碍是,在我们这个超积极的社会中,有一项不成文的负面情绪零容忍政策。在无所不包的负面情绪之伞下,基本囊括了所有并非超积极的情绪。但说真的,我们中谁每天都过得“很棒!”呢?谁会每时每刻都感觉“太好了,谢谢!”呢? 愤怒和负面情绪也自有它们的作用。与其“努力变得积极”来减轻某些不舒服和不快的情绪,不如试着变得消极。说真的,偶尔尝试一下。这将帮你了解自己的真实感受:“我感到自己很绝望、很胖、很蠢。这种感觉让我觉得很失败。努力变得积极乐观让我生气,而生气让我感到伤心。” 如果这是你的感觉──不管感觉如何──那么你已经有了一个底线,你已经建立了一个真实坚固的参考底线。有时让自己不加判断或审视地感受任何情绪,可以减轻这些负面情绪的强度。就好像你把它们放到后院奔跑,去除了其中的某些能量一样。 那种我们必须每时每刻都快乐积极的观点的一个推论是,我们都必须被“治疗”。当我32岁时,我爱的某个人在曼哈顿(Manhattan)一家医院的单人病床上离开了人世。他的去世并不是意外,我几年前就开始做心理准备,就像去攻读一个学位一样。但当他离去的时候,我还是很震惊,感觉他彷佛是被楼顶掉下的三角钢琴砸死的。我没有做好完全的准备。 我不知道如何应对现实。我花了大约一年时间才停止疯狂的思念。我总是会梦见他。当我最终相信他走了之后,我开始进入了下一个阶段:等待。等待治愈。这一阶段持续了数年之久。 关于治愈的真相是,治愈只是一个在电视中说说的词汇而已。你亲近的某个人去世了?那你永远不会痊愈。起初几天发生的事情是,周围的人拍拍你的肩膀,让你从中惊醒,记起还要呼吸。你会感觉自己就像快要自然死亡一样,悲伤的重量是实实在在的,几乎无法承受。 最后,你会冲个澡,走出屋子。可能一年之后,你会去看场电影。然后某一天,某人说了句什么,引起你发笑了。你会用手捂住嘴,因为你笑了,但这个笑让你伤心,它感觉就像背叛。你怎么能笑呢? 总有那么一天,在朋友们看来,你已经从失去亲友的痛苦中恢复过来了。那时你会想,实际上发生的是,你生活中心的那个洞缩小了,小到足以被一个笑容掩盖。但或许你仍然会感觉到这个洞真实存在的压力,又或许,你会认为现在已度过了“足够长的”时间,你生活中心的那个洞应该完全消失了。 但这种洞是很有意思的东西。事实证明,我们人类能带着许多大小形状不同的这样的洞,生活得很好。快乐、爱、同情、满足,这些情绪从任何大小的洞中都不会流失。因此我们可以填补空洞和损失,以及未治愈的广袤心域──同时我们也能为生活感到兴奋,感受到爱与满足。 这是最古老、深层和原始的事实:生活的真相有时可能就是无法承受的痛苦。但生活的核心和支柱比任何理由或信念都要宽广。那些本应置我们于死地的东西事实上并未得逞。这应该被看作继续活下去的动力。 关于治疗的真相是,你不需要治疗就能恢复完整。所谓的完整,是指你感觉曾经的自己、你的心因为受到伤害而成为失落的碎片,你感觉彷佛失去了自己最重要的部分,但事实上你并未丢失你的任何一个部分。实际上,你比之前更加强大了。 人类的心灵体验比人体的组织更为重要。 (──选自《老少皆宜的心灵妙药》(This Is How: Proven Aid in Overcoming Shyness, Molestation, Fatness, Spinsterhood, Grief, Disease, Lushery, Decrepitude More. For Young and Old Alike),奥古斯滕•伯勒斯(Augusten Burroughs)着。近日由St. Martin's出版。) AUGUSTEN BURROUGHS
个人分类: 他山之石|2988 次阅读|0 个评论
妈妈咪呀
热度 3 liuyingxiang 2012-5-21 00:34
俺家小朋友现在高中读书,非常辛苦,压力山大。想着怎么为孩子减轻压力呢?适逢广州珠江数码集团有限公司推出高清互动电视业务“甜果时光”,就是换了一个高清互动电视机顶盒。在点播节目中,我发现了梅丽尔斯特里普主演的电影《妈妈咪呀》,非常好看。里面还有瑞典ABBA合唱团的20来首歌,而且ABBA合唱团两位男乐手还出现在电影中。孩子还到网上寻找《妈妈咪呀》的背景资料。比如,2001年,为减轻“911”恐怖事件给孩子带来的心理压力和阴影,梅丽尔斯特里普专门带孩子及其小伙伴到百老汇观看音乐剧《妈妈咪呀》,孩子非常高兴和快乐,梅丽尔斯特里普见到此状,还第一次专门以“粉丝”的名义写信给剧组,感谢他们给孩子带来的快乐时光。时隔7年,电影摄制组拿着那封信登门来找梅丽尔斯特里普请她主演影片《妈妈咪呀》,梅丽尔斯特里普非常惊讶,连声问:你们确定是我吗。 下面是我在网上找到的英文电影简介(文中 蓝色字体 为影片中演唱的ABBA合唱团的歌曲,非常好听): On a Greek island called Kalokairi, 20-year-old bride-to-be Sophie Sheridan posts three wedding invitations (" I Have a Dream ") to different men, who set off for the wedding. Sophie's bridesmaids and best friends, Ali and Lisa, arrive before the wedding. Sophie reveals that she found her mother's diary and learned she has three possible fathers: New York-based Irish architect Sam Carmichael, Swedish adventurer and writer Bill Andersson, and British banker Harry Bright. She invited them without telling her mother, believing that after she spends time with them she will know who her father is (" Honey, Honey "). Villa owner Donna Sheridan is ecstatic to reunite with her former bandmates, wisecracking author Rosie and wealthy multiple divorcée Tanya, and reveals her bafflement at her daughter's desire to get married. Donna shows off the villa, rumored to be built on the legendary fountain of Aphrodite , and explains her precarious finances to Rosie and Tanya (" Money, Money, Money "). The three men arrive, and Sophie smuggles them to their room and explains that she, not her mother, sent the invitations. She begs them to hide so Donna will have a surprise at the wedding: seeing the old friends of whom she "so often" favorably speaks. They overhear Donna working (humming " Fernando ") and swear to Sophie they will not reveal her secret. Donna spies them and is dumbfounded to find herself facing former lovers she could never forget (" Mamma Mia "), and is adamant that they leave. She confides in Tanya and Rosie (" Chiquitita ") a secret she has kept from everyone — she is uncertain which of the three men is Sophie's father. Tanya and Rosie rally her spirits by getting Donna to dance with the female staff and islanders (" Dancing Queen "). Sophie finds the men aboard Bill's yacht, and they sail around Kalokairi (" Our Last Summer ") and tell stories of Donna as a carefree girl. Sophie musters up the courage to speak with her fiancé Sky about her ploy, but loses her nerve. Sky and Sophie sing to each other (" Lay All Your Love on Me "), but are interrupted when Sky is snatched for his bachelor party. At Sophie's hen party , Donna, Tanya and Rosie perform as Donna and The Dynamos (" Super Trouper "). Sophie is delighted to see her mother rock out, but becomes nervous when the festivities are interrupted by the arrival of Sam, Bill and Harry. She decides to talk with each of her three prospective dads alone. While her girlfriends dance with the men (" Gimme! Gimme! Gimme! (A Man After Midnight) "), Sophie learns from Bill that Donna received the money to invest in her villa from his great aunt Sofia. Sophie guesses she must be Sofia's namesake and Bill is her father. She asks him to give her away and to keep their secret from Donna until the wedding. Sophie's happiness is short-lived as Sam and Harry each tell her they must be her dad and will give her away (" Voulez-Vous "). A shocked Sophie cannot tell them the truth and, overwhelmed by the consequences of her actions, faints. In the morning, Rosie and Tanya reassure Donna they will take care of the men. On Bill's boat, Bill and Harry are about to confide in each other, but are interrupted by Rosie. Donna confronts Sophie in the courtyard, believing Sophie wants the wedding stopped. Sophie says that all she wants is to avoid her mother's mistakes and storms off. An upset Donna is accosted by Sam, concerned about Sophie getting married so young. Donna confronts him and both realize they still have feelings for each other (" SOS "). Down on the beach, Tanya and young Pepper continue their flirtations from the previous night (" Does Your Mother Know "). Sophie confesses to Sky and asks for his help. He reacts angrily to his fiancée's deception and Sophie turns to her mother for support. As Donna helps her daughter dress for the wedding, their rift is healed and Donna reminisces about Sophie's childhood and how quickly she has grown (" Slipping Through My Fingers "). Sophie asks Donna to give her away. As the bridal party walks to the chapel, Sam intercepts Donna and begs her to talk. She reveals the pain she felt over losing him (" The Winner Takes It All "). When Sophie and Donna are walking down the aisle, the band plays the tune of " Knowing Me, Knowing You ". Donna tells Sophie that her father is present but he could be any of the three men, whom Sophie admits to inviting. Sam reveals that although he left to get married, he did not go through with it, and returned only to find Donna with another man. Harry confesses that Donna was the first and last woman he loved. The three men concur that they would be happy to be one-third of a father for Sophie. She tells Sky that they should postpone their wedding and travel the world as they have wanted. Sam proposes to Donna (" I Do, I Do, I Do, I Do, I Do "). She accepts and they are married. At the wedding reception, Sam sings to Donna (" When All Is Said and Done "), which prompts Rosie to make a play for Bill (" Take a Chance on Me "). All the couples present proclaim their love (" Mamma Mia " reprise), as their raucous dancing causes the ground to crack and erupt with water from the fountain of Aphrodite. Sophie and Sky bid farewell to Kalokairi and sail away (" I Have a Dream " reprise). During the principal credits, Donna, Tanya and Rosie reprise "Dancing Queen", followed by " Waterloo " with the rest of the cast. Amanda Seyfried sings " Thank You for the Music " over the end credits. 最后是我在网上找到的关于ABBA合唱团的博客( http://abbamikory.blogs.com/ ),里面有很多照片,其中有梅丽尔斯特里普等电影演员与ABBA合唱团两名女歌手的见面照片,挺有意思的。
个人分类: 生活点滴|8062 次阅读|4 个评论
微距拍小蜜概要
热度 8 beepro 2012-4-22 00:36
美国东部养蜂协会要我写, 回国前赶夜班写了些。 暂时没有时间翻成中文。 An Introduction to Digital Photography 1. Equipment: know your camera I encourage you to "study" the camera by reading reviews ( http://www.dpreviews.com ), seeing sample photos, and then handling it (if possible) before purchasing it. If you already have one, then definitely study the manual and change settings and observe different results. Is it necessary to have a dSLR (digital single reflex lens) camera? Yes, if you are serious with digital photography. dSLR will allow you to switch lenses for different situations, and in most cases you will be shooting using a "macro" (Nikon calls theirs "micro") lens. A macro lens allows you to focus very close to the subject, thus have a larger image on the CCD (charge-coupled device) or CMOS (complementary metal-oxide semiconductor) -the sensor for the digital camera. A cheap camera body nowadays can be had for $5-6 hundred dollars, a good macro lens will cost about another $4-5 hundred. The advantage for a dSLR vs. a point and shoot (PS) camera is that it is much more responsive -- most PS cameras wait for half a second before taking the photo, while dSLRs usually has a delay of about 60 milliseconds. Table 1 Three cameras that I have used in the past: Olympus D4501 Nikon CP 990 Nikon D70 Pixels 1.3 meg 3.2 meg 6.0 meg Amount paid (time) $599 (Oct 1999) $720 (Apr 2001) $999 (Mar 2004) Shutter delay (sec) 1 0.6 0.06 Recording time 4 sec 4 sec 3 frames/sec Control of exposure auto only P, A, S, M P, A, S, M Sensor size 5.3 x 4 mm 7.144 x 5.358 mm 23.7 x 15.6 mm Currently there are much faster PS cameras in the market, some similar to the D70, due to fact that they use electronic shutters (essentially there is no mechanical door that opens, but rather a charge makes the CCD available to respond to light when it is supposed to "open"). PS camera can also take OK photos if you have enough patience, or if you are lucky. But you probably will have to settle for static bees on flowers and it is difficult to capture a bee in flight, if nearly impossible. My current camera is D700 which has a "full size" (i.e.= the same size of film negatives) sensor. The larger the sensor, the less noise and better color rendition due to less interference among the tiny sensors and also less heat produced. 2. Light/exposure control 2.1 Shutter speed (S) : higher number means faster speed because is presented as inverse number: 100 means 1/100 of a sec, and 500 means 1/500. Higher speed means the shutter is open for a shorter amount of time, thus allowing in less light. Higher speed will freeze motion while lower speed will create motion blur. If used correctly, motion blur can impart a sense of movement and can be good for the photo. Shutter priority mode (i.e. the user picks a shutter speed, and the camera calculates the aperture automatically), is denoted as S in Nikon cameras and Tv in Canon cameras. Wiki has more examples of how various shutter speeds affect photo effects . 2.2 Aperture (A): Aperture size (F) is again a reversed number, so a larger number means a smaller opening of the lens's "pupil", thus allowing less light. For example F22 will let in half of the light compared to the next number, which is F16. F16 takes 50% light of F11, etc. Aperture priority mode (i.e. the user picks a aperture size, and the camera calculates the shutter speed automatically), is denoted as A in Nikon cameras and Av in Canon cameras. For a more technical treatment of F-number, see wiki . 2.3 Flash: Flash can be used to add or replace sun light. This is often required for very closeup macro shots. The reason for this is often you want to have a greater depth of field (to have the bee showing more body parts in focus, not just part of the wings), say F22, and at 1/250, there is not enough sun light to illuminate the subject. A flash, whether an internal one or external one, can serve this purpose. Most of my D70 photos were taken in using the onboard flash, which if used correctly, can create a black background, showing a cleaner subject in the photo. Currently I use two wireless flashes (Nikon's R1C1) which attaches to the front of the lens and I have more control of the aperture in the M mode (manual, which means I control both the shutter and aperture). Example of darkened background using internal flash. A bee on a coneflower. 1/500, F22, onboard flash, Nikkor 60 mm micro, D70, 9/16/2004. 2.4 Depth of field: Larger aperture (smaller F number) will have smaller depth of field and only the area in focus will be clear, while these in front or behind will be out of focus. If used correctly, out of focus areas creates a dream like feeling, called "bokeh" and can be pleasing to the eye. Aperture priority mode (i.e. the user picks an aperture, and the camera calculates the shutter speed automatically), is donated as A in Nikon cameras and Av in Canon cameras. Small aperture shows a bee and parts of a flower totally clear. More academic. A bee on blueberry. 1/500, F22, Nikon D70, 60mm micro + Flash, 5/30/2006. Large aperture (F5.6) shows only parts of bee and flower in focus. More artistic. A Asian honey bee Apis cerana on rhododendron. 1/250, F5.6, Nikon D70, 60mm micro + Flash, 3/27/2006, Taiwan. 2.5 Color : Color is rarely controlled for digital photos because you can do all the adjustments afterwards using Photoshop or other software. White balance can be highly important though if you want to natural colors of the flowers. Most dSLRs have choices of white balance (sunlight, flash, fluorescent light, preset, etc), while most PS cameras do not have it. 2.6 ISO . In the old days you would need to bring at least two types of films, one for the indoor (darker, perhaps ISO400 film) and one for the outdoor photos (brighter, ISO100). Now with digital cameras all you do is to change it via a dial. Lower ISOs always give you a better, less noisy photo. But when there is not enough light and you do not want to use flash (e.g. in a performance), then you dial up the sensitivity to a higher ISO (e.g. 1600). This will yield a more grainy photo but you still captured something. Professional cameras will have usable photos at this high an ISO, but small PS cameras usually lose quality for anything higher than ISO400. For shooting flowers and honey bees, usually you try to shoot at the lowest ISO. 3. JPEG or Raw? Some newer PS cameras now also have the option to shoot "raw" -- which means a pixel by pixel dump of the information to a file, while nearly all dSRLs have this option. Jpeg is a compressed file so you will need to specify "basic, normal or fine" which adjusts for the different degrees of compression. "Fine" will create a larger file with more details, while "basic" will allow you to have more photos on a memory card while sacrificing some details. The main advantage of RAW is that you have the ability to change white balance after the photo is taken, whereas in JPEG, if white balance was set incorrectly, it would be difficult, if not impossible to recreate the original colors during post processing. I now shoot in mostly raw for flowers and bees. Raw also give you as light edge in the dynamic range (the contrast between light and dark areas in a photo). 3.1. Example of a honeysuckle that has a yellowish tint due to a wrong setting of white balance. Somehow suing "flash" was not as good as "sunny". 1/250, F25, Nikon D700, 105mm micro, 2 wireless flashes (R1C1), 3/20/2012, MSU Campus. 3.2. This can be corrected if shot in raw mode, by changing it to the correct white balance. This one is in more natural colors. 1/250, F20, Nikon D700, 105mm micro, 2 wireless flashes (R1C1), 3/20/2012,MSU Campus.. 4. Composition: The 1/3 rule It is not always good to put your subject in the center, which can be perceived as boring or conservative. The best way is to set the subject (the focus of your story) at 1/3 off one side, then from the bottom or top. Example of a bee at 1/3 of the frame 5. More examples of photos In the following I use some examples to illustrate some other points in honey bee photography. 5.1. Proximity of lowers and bee hives can help. I have not seen bees work on my peonies in Michigan though, even when there is a bee hive in my backyard though. It might also have something to do with season (what are other competing flowers?). 5.2. Side view of a bee is usually more pleasing than looking at her back straight down. This is a top view of a bee: side view. 5.3. Patience....I waited for the bee to come to this water lily near the shore because my Nikon CP990 had a very small zoom. 1/90, F5, 4/21/2002. 5.4. Luck, we all need it sometime...I got frustrated after trying to take bees in flight due to the 0.6 sec shutter delay. Then I started to shoot randomly and got this one in flight. 1/280, F6.2, 3/26/2002. 5.5. These bees (one anthophoridae and 2 APis dorsata) came after I was shooting this Dellenia flower (Dillenia turbinata, Dilleniaceae). while jogging with my camera at 6 am. 5.6. Sometimes the bee hovers so much that you can capture even using a PS camera. A giant honey bee foraging on Picara spp (Bombacaceae). 1/1000, F2.5, 4/5/2002. 5.7. Cherries blooming a few days back (March 21, 2012). I used back light to make the flowers translucent...for more photos of bees on cherry blossoms, see cherry and bees . 5.8. That same day I saw bees working on magnolia! for more photos see bees on magnolia . Thank you.
个人分类: 相机|5994 次阅读|15 个评论
与敖平教授讨论:若干统计物理与网络问题(补充敖与毕讨论)
Fangjinqin 2012-3-9 18:43
与敖平教授讨论:若干统计物理与网络问题(补充敖与毕讨论)
与敖平教授讨论:若干统计物理与网络问题 敖平教授看了我们在 《统计物理与网络科学面临的若干挑战与思考》一文中提出的六个问题,今天来函畅谈 了他的高见.我认为:他的看法或学术观点很有见地,值得感兴趣的同行和网友进一步来探讨。因此,我特转发如下。 From ping ao az5842@yahoo.com 11:25 AM (7 hours ago,May 9) Dear Prof. Fang: Many thanks for your two recent papers with Prof. Bi. In my view your subsystem dynamical proposal is a possible candidate, and, my basic points were already in my previous message. Your paper of 统计物理与网络科学面临的若干挑战与思考 (Several Challenge Issues for Statistical Physics and Network Science) raised many excellent questions. Here I would like to say a few words on some questions which I have been thinking about. 1. "... ,而且需要建立一套非平衡复杂网络的基本动力学方程。这一切似乎又离不开Liouville 方程、Schrodinger 方程和Hamiltonian。什么又是网络的 Hamiltonian 的清晰形式?" Indeed, we need a fundamental dynamical equation. In my view, it shoud be logically different from Liouville and/or Schrodinger equations, but compatible with latters. What we proposed Darwinian dynamics may have such properties. It is indeed critical to have a clear idea of the system "Hamiltonian" or energy-like function for generic dynamical processes. Our work since 2004 (a 2004 paper is attached here) may have solved this issue from theoretical construction side. With "Hamiltonian", statistical mechanics approach is of course valid. 2. "...,如何提炼出网络模型的Hamiltonian,就是一个难点。" I agree. Barabasi did not appear to understand our work. I think we now have a first viable proposal for this most fundamental issue. 3. "自然界所有实际宏观热力学过程都是有方向性的或不可逆的,而经典力学和量子力学所反映的物理规律都是可逆的,因而在建立非平衡态统计物理时,首先面临的难题就是不可逆性佯缪: 为什么微观动力学是可逆的,而宏观统计热力学过程却是不可逆的? 这个矛盾自Boltzmann 以来一直困扰着很多物理学家" Yes. This problem had been even attempted by Lebowitz recently, and many papers appeared in PRL and others new journals. Our solution is "simple": there is another fundamental dynamical equation. Such dynamics has been tentatively named Darwinian dynamics. The first relative full discussion was in our 2008 CTP paper. 3. "不可逆性佯谬的起源究竟是什么? " Well, I tend to answer this question in this way: Uncertainty is part of natural phenomena. It must be a part of fundamental dynamical description. That is, from epistemological point of view, we need to accept it as a primivtive concept, not derived concept, similar to that we do not ask what is the origin of uncertainty in quantum mechanics. 4. "是否因为统计热力学规律本质上有别于动力学规律? 如果是,两者究竟有何差别? 非平衡态统计物理是否有基本方程? 如果有,它 是什么形式? 可否由它提供一个包括非平衡态和平衡态统一的理论框架? 网络非平衡熵是否遵守什么演化方程? 如果是,它又是什么形式?" Yes, there is a candidate tentatively named Darwinian dynamics (sub-system dynamics in your study may be another candidate). In my 2008 CTP paper I attempt to provide quantitative answers to those questions. 5. " 熵产生率、即熵增加定律的微观物理基础是什么? 是否可以一个简明的公式描述? 孤立网络系统的熵是否永远只增不减? 开放网络的熵又如何推动网络演化?" From Darwinian dynamics perspective, variation in dynamics provides the key to address above questions. 6. "所有这些问题,能否从一套新的基本方程出发进行统一的解答?" Yes. Darwinian dynamics may be such a candidate. One needs to ask more: what would be new predictions, for example? So far, we have discussed two types: i) For general dynamical description, Ito process may not be enough. ii) Einstein relation should be extended to linear regime without detailed balance in a specific way. Fortunately, there is a first clear experimental evidence (PRL, 2010) i) may be gnerally valid. If all of us think we may have a positive answer to this most fundamental question, we may have made a fundamental contibution to science. Of course, it is very clear that many hard works need to be done: conceptual, theoreitcal, mathematical, computational, experimental, etc. Many useful applications may be found, too. As said previously, I believe in China we may have the right miliu (a apology to Prigogine) for such success. Most importance, all of us have the will to do it. Ao, Ping 补充:毕桥与敖平之间的讨论 From: qiao bi biqiao@gmail.com To: ping ao az5842@yahoo.com Sent: Saturday, March 10, 2012 5:21 AM Subject: Re: hi, ao ping Hi, Prof. A. Ping, (1) (1) The potential function is quite interested in the Darwinian dynamics, since it can consist of a formula for the canonical ensemble. I understand this formula is correct even for non-equilibrium states in the Darwinian dynamics. Could you give more clear description to the potential function? I believe it is just Hamiltonian in the equilibrium situation, but what is exact meaning in the non-equilibrium situation? (2) (2) I firstly guess: the potential function = the potential of information density, which may be related to my recently work (J. Phys. A in submission). But I hope this statement will be explained after I truly understand the potential function. (3) (3) Feymann types of approaches have advantages, especially to the quantum field system, but I believe that if we did correct calculations the subdynamics and the Feymann methods will give the same results. However, I said the correct calculation is not that kind easier, since it needs researchers to have enough skills to handle both sides. Many cases, because implied not correct calculation, we did the wrong result. Furthermore, subdynamics has introduced many new concepts, such as the extension Hilbert or Liouville space, the complex spectral decomposition, the similarity non-unitary transformation, and the differential kinetic equation to the projected density operator and so on, these new concepts have appeared in the subdynamics both in classical and quantum situations to lead it as a candidate to unify equilibrium and non-equilibrium statistics, while in the Feymann formalism my level cannot see this possibility. For example, can the Feymann approach solve complex spectral problems for chaotic maps? Subdynamics is useful to any linear operators not only Hamiltonian or Liouvillian. So in this period, for saving time, I suggest to first consider the Darwinian dynamics, because it may be more meaningful. I think you more know this. Best Wishes, Biqiao Dear Prof. Bi: Thanks for the good questions. (1). Potential function in our work is indeed, or play the samilar role as, the Hamiltonian in physics, whether or not in equilibirum or not. Because we need broader dynamical description, what we have shown is that, even in biological, social and other situations, "Hamiltonian" exists. Such existence guarantees that statistical mechanics type decription can be used in those fields, as, of course, people have been doing successfully so far, though they have not understood the keys yet. (2) I do not know your definition, hence I cannot say anthing. On the other hand, the potential function in our work is both dynamical and statonary quantity, exactly the same situation in usual physical systems. (3) I agree that Feynman type description has its advantages but I am no interested in defending such approach. I think it is most interest to see whether or not there are any differences in physics: For a given situation, whether or not two approaches would give different predictions. Or, they would be completely equivalent. From a physicist's pespective, I am not sure of the last point. For technical mathematical problems, such as you posted, can the Feymann approach solve complex spectral problems for chaotic maps? while I do not know anyone has done that, I believe the answer is yes, Feynman approach can do that. The reason for such assertation is actually simple: Feynman's path integral is a general mathematical framework. Again, I am more interested in situations which can in principle be tested experimentally. Ao, Ping
个人分类: 杂谈评论|7071 次阅读|0 个评论
Who's who?
热度 5 cosismine 2012-3-3 19:24
请问是哪位朋友提名我?好像对方没有要求我付钱,管他呢,反正我又不会损失什么。走过,路过,留个名,总比不留名好些。 Dear Yuxian Liu, Congratulations! Your biography has passed initial screening and is now being reviewed and edited by our editors for possible inclusion in Who's Who in the World . Within the coming weeks, you will be sent a copy of your biography adapted to the classic Marquis Who's Who editorial style and given an opportunity to review and update your profile. Final selections are generally made three months prior to publication. If your biography is selected for inclusion, you will be notified at that time and given one final opportunity to approve or edit your biography before the publication goes to print. Marquis Who's Who, publisher of the original Who's Who in America since 1899, is recognized worldwide as the premier publisher of biographical information on important individuals across all fields of endeavor. Amongst those included in Marquis Who's Who publications are such luminaries as Warren Buffett, Mark Zuckerberg, Stephen Hawking, Jane Goodall, Diane Von Furstenberg, Sanjay Gupta, Angela Merkel, Rafael Nadal, Yo-yo Ma, and Oprah Winfrey. You should be proud of the achievements that led to your consideration for inclusion alongside such noteworthy men and women. Once again, thank you for submitting your biography, and best wishes for your continued success. Sincerely, Fred Marks Editor-in-Chief P.S. We have found that accomplished candidates like you are often one of our best resources for identifying individuals who meet the qualifications for inclusion in a Marquis Who's Who publication. As such, we would like to invite you to nominate a friend or colleague who you feel deserves recognition for their major achievements and dedication to their field.
5226 次阅读|8 个评论
笑一下
热度 4 cosismine 2012-2-22 19:12
MarquisWhosWho@mww.marquiswhoswho.com Dear Y. LIU, I am the editor-in-chief of Who's Who in the World , and I have received your name through a private nomination process. I'm writing to ask if you would provide us with information about your personal and professional accomplishments for possible inclusion in the book. Inclusion in Who's Who in the World indicates real accomplishment. The book is a global reference relied on by universities, libraries, corporations, and governments around the world. Many people put this recognition on their resumes or CVs. Unlike Wikipedia, Facebook, and LinkedIn, our books contain only the biographies that we choose through our rigorous selection process (see below). But like those resources, it costs you nothing to be included. Also, our books are actually printed and purchased by the world's most respected institutions. So, among other things, Who's Who in the World gives you all the benefits of high quality networking. Please click this link to the Who's Who in the World Biographical Data Form and you will be taken to our password-protected site. The submission process takes only a few minutes, and the benefits of being included in Who's Who in the World can be significant. Congratulations on being nominated! Sincerely, Fred Marks Editor-in-Chief, Who's Who in the World
5062 次阅读|12 个评论
[转载]什么是生命?What Is Life?
热度 3 DNAgene 2012-2-17 08:36
http://the-scientist.com/2012/02/16/opinion-what-is-life/ Opinion: What Is Life? Designing the simplest possible living organism artificially may lend clues as to what life is. By Edward N. Trifonov | February 16, 2012 Virus models Flickr, Razza Mathadsa The definition of life is as enormous a problem as the phenomenon of life itself. One could easily collect from the literature more than 100 different definitions, none satisfactory enough to be broadly accepted. What should the definition contain, to be suitable for all varieties of observable life? Humans, animals, plants, microorganisms. Do viruses also belong to life? There are two tendencies in the attempts to define life. One is to formulate an all-inclusive definition, accommodating life’s attributes and manifestations from all levels of complexity. 1 Another tendency is to reduce the attributes to only those which are common to all forms of life. 2 But we do not know what would be the “simplissimus” from which everything, probably, started. Darwin speculated 140 years ago, 3 not knowing yet about nucleic acids: “…we could conceive in some warm little pond, with all sorts of ammonia and phosphoric salts, light, heat, electricity etc., present, that a protein compound was chemically formed, ready to undergo still more complex changes.” If we could identify and characterize this “warm little pond” creature, its features might suggest the minimalistic definition of life. Viruses are simple, having often only protein coat and one or a few molecules of nucleic acids. But this is only a minute part of their description. For reproduction they require the whole complexity of the higher organisms in which they reside. But the “individuality” of the virus is encoded in its genome. Viruses do not invade any arbitrary organism, but rather target specific host species, dictated by the virus’s own genes. Still, the virus is a good clue in the search for the simplissimus. This was appreciated first by Sol Spiegelman in late ’60s, who observed the process of self-reproduction of the viral RNA by imitating intracellular conditions in a tube. 4 All the replicating RNA needed was the building blocks—nucleotides, taken from the lab’s shelf, and purified natural protein RNA-replicase, encoded in the viral RNA and produced by host cells. The system not only copied the RNA endlessly, but also displayed ability to mutate, to change the sequence of the RNA to any degree of dissimilarity with original viral RNA. Another extremely simple system found in nature is viroids, the most primitive plant disease agents, which consist of only RNA. They invade a plant and force it to produce the viroid RNA. This RNA does not encode any proteins, but serves merely to direct the expression of relevant host proteins and cellular processes. That is, the viroid, if considered as a living organism with non-traditional life cycle, is just an RNA, with the sequence instructing its own propagation (via the host), all ingredients and copying devices provided by the host’s cells. Both of these examples are not the simplest, though, as they require enzymes provided by more sophisticated organisms. But could not we artificially synthesize the replicase or a simplified version? What about removing the replicase and relying upon RNA only? After all, RNA is a “ribozyme” with many catalytic properties typical of protein enzymes. If some primitive version of RNA (or perhaps even DNA ) is capable of self-replication, and respective monomer units required for the synthesis could be produced abiotically or artificially in some reasonable setup imitating primordial conditions—the nucleotide analogs to the abiotic synthesis of natural amino acids observed by Stanley Miller in his model system of early Earth atmosphere, for example 5 —the RNA itself would become, probably, the simplest living entity. Whether we stop the reductionist strive here, at replicating RNA, or continue even further down, to the variety of abiotic syntheses, depends on what we define as life. The border between life and nonlife may, actually, be placed anywhere within the realm of the abiotic processes. Oligonucleotides, oligopeptides, nucleobases, amino acids, sugars—all could be considered as very primitive and simplistic life forms, if the definition is extended (and simplified) to the very elements. Before 1828, when organic substances could be found only within living matter, the popular idea of a “vital force” reigned. In those days, one could draw the life/nonlife border at the first appearance of the small “vital force” (i.e., organic) molecules. Abiotic synthesis of urea by Friedrich Wöhler in 1828 dethroned this common belief. The hypothetical primitive RNA replication process has a degree of sophistication that separates it from mere chemistry: it copies itself and allows copying mistakes, which themselves are copied in future generations. In other words, this is the process of self-reproduction with variations (as in Spiegelman’s system), not just organic synthesis. This is the very definition of life suggested by the developing theory of early molecular evolution. 6,7 The same formula is derived by “word count” analysis, which yields the most frequently used words, of more than 100 known definitions of life (2). The recent discovery that both genes and genomes appear to have emerged originally as simple tandem repeats, with subsequent mutations increasing their complexity 8,9 makes such definition even more attractive. One can view a genome as molecular habitat for emergence of “new life” in the form of expanding and mutating simple repeats. In that sense, and under the above minimalistic definition, life never stopped emerging, starting some 4 billion years ago with replicating RNA, 6,7 and continuing to this day within the genomes of every living organism. Edward N. Trifonov is a professor at the University of Haifa in Israel and Masaryk University in the Czech Republic. He can be contacted at mailto:trifonov@research.haifa.ac.il . 1. J. Gayon, C. Malaterre, M. Morange, F. Raulin-Cerceau, and S. Tirard (guest Eds.). Special Issue: Definitions of life. Origins Life Evol Biospheres, 40 , 119-244, 2010. 2. E.N. Trifonov, “Vocabulary of definitions of life suggests a definition.” Journal of Biomolecular Structure Dynamics, 29, 259-266, 2011. 3. C. Darwin, as quoted in M. Calvin (1969) Chemical evolution. Molecular evolution towards the origin of living systems on earth and elsewhere. Clarendon, Oxford. 4. D.L. Kacian , S. Spiegelman , D.R. Mills , F.R. Kramer, “Replicating RNA molecule suitable for a detailed analysis of extracellular evolution and replication.” Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences USA , 69, 3038-3042, 1972. 5. S.L. Miller, “A production of amino acids under possible primitive earth conditions.” Science , 117, 528-529, 1953. 6. E.N. Trifonov, Journal of Biomolecular Structure Dynamics, 22, 1-11, 2004. 7. E.N. Trifonov, Research in Microbiology, 160, 481-486, 2009. 8. Z. Koren, E.N. Trifonov, “Role of everlasting triplet expansions in protein evolution.” Journal of Molecular Evolution , 72, 232-239, 2011. 9. Z.M.Frenkel, E.N. Trifonov, “Origin and evolution of genes and genomes. Crucial role of triplet expansions.” Submitted to Journal of Biomolecular Structure Dynamics .
个人分类: 生物进化|3083 次阅读|2 个评论
[转载]博一笑
dunyu 2012-2-14 08:56
科学家们在论文中写道--------------------他们实际的意思是 “It has long been known” I didn’t look up the original reference . 「一直以來我們都知道」 我沒查文獻 . “A difinite trend is evident” The data are practically meaningless . 「一個明顯的未來趨勢清晰浮現」 數據事實上沒什麼意義 . "While it has not been possible to provide definite answers to the questions" An unsuccessful experiment, but I still hope to get it published . 「儘管本研究無法針對問題提供明確的答案」 實驗沒成功,但我還是想拼發表 . "Three of the samples were chosen for detailed study" The other results didn't make any sense . 「選出其中三個樣本進行更詳細的研究」 其他結果一點意義都沒有 . "Typical results are shown" This is the prettiest graph . 「以下為標準結果」 這是我最漂亮的圖 . "These results will be in subsequent report" I might get around this sometime, if published/funded . 「結果會在下一篇報告呈現」 我應該最終會提到吧,如果能被出版/拿到經費 . "A careful analysis of obtained data" Three pages of note were obliterated when I knocked over a glass of beer . 「針對可取得的資料進行仔細分析」 因為我弄倒了啤酒杯,有三頁筆記毀了 . "After additional study by my colleagues" They didn't understand it either . 「經過同事的額外研究」 他們也搞不懂 . "Thanks are due to Joe Blotz for assistance with the experiment and to Cindy Adams for valuable discussions" Mr. Blotz did the work and Ms. Adams explained to me what it meant. . 「感謝偉喬在實驗上的協助,以及心怡一些寶貴的意見」 實驗偉喬做的,報告心怡寫的。 . "A highly significant area for exploratory study" A totally useless topic selected by my committee . 「對於探索性的學術研究,這是具有超凡重大意義的領域」 我的委員群選的雞肋題目,無聊透頂。 . "In my experience" Once . 「根據我的經驗」 我做了一次實驗 . "In case after case" Twice . 「一次又一次的案例」 我做了兩次實驗 . "In a series of cases" Three times . 「在一系列的研究後」 我做了三次實驗 . "It is believed that" I think. . 「這被認為是」 我認為 . "It is generally believed that" A couple of others think so, too . 「普遍認為」 有另外一兩個人也這樣想 . "Correct within an order of magnitude" Wrong . 「在一個範圍內這是成立的」 錯 . "According to statistical analysis" Rumor has it. . 「根據統計分析」 謠言 . "It is clear that much additional work will be required before a complete understanding of this phenomenon occurs" I don't understand . 「這明顯說明了還需要投入更多的研究來完整了解發生的現象」 我根本不懂 . "A statistically-oriented projection of the significance of these findings" A wild guess . 「從這些發現的重要性所作的統計面向預測」 我亂猜的 . "It is hoped that the study will stimulate further study in this field" I quit. . 「希望本研究能激勵在這個領域的更多研究」 我不幹了【 在 dixiangjushi (豆粉) 的大作中提到: 】
2064 次阅读|0 个评论
[转载]当知名广告在黑龙江,遭遇东北话
chenzhongx 2012-1-5 13:17
1.李宁 Anything is possible 啥都被不住。2.Nike Just do it 就这么整。 3.雀巢冰激凌 Take time to indulge. 可劲造吧! 4.雀巢咖啡 The taste is great. 可好喝了。 5.飞利浦电子 Lets make thing btter. 让俺们整的更牛逼。 6.佳能打印机 Impossible made possible.把不行整成被不住。 7. Adidas Impossible is nothing 怎么整都行。 8.松下 deas for life 给生活想招。 9.麦当劳 I lovin it! 俺就稀罕它! 10.百事流行鞋 Ask for more. 老渴望了。 11.理光复印机 We lead. Others copy. 俺们牛逼,他们瞅着。 12.Ericsson(爱立信) Make yourself heard. 明白就是忽悠。 13.Rejoice(飘柔) Start ahead. 从脑袋开整。 14.大众甲克虫 think small 寻思寻思还得是不点的。 15.三菱电工 We integrate, you communicate 俺们猛了,你灭了俺。16.美特斯邦威 :不挑好道走。17.森马:穿啥?瞅我18.安踏:溜达的唔了嚎疯的!19.好吃点:稀罕 你就多造点。20.劲酒虽好,可不能往死咳呀!21 匹克 .i can play 我老能得瑟了
2312 次阅读|0 个评论
[转载]Reactive Magnetron Sputtering
xpzhanghit 2011-12-29 20:50
Dr Stijn Mahieu Ghent University Archived topic page last updated on 16 July 2008 http://www.scitopics.com/Reactive_Magnetron_Sputtering.html Magnetron sputtering is a widely used PVD (Physical Vapour Deposition) technique to deposit thin films. This technique is based on the generation of a magnetically enhanced glow discharge , the so-called magnetron discharge . When a reactive gas is added to the discharge, it becomes possible to deposit compound materials. This process, i.e. reactive sputter deposition, has been recently reviewed in two papers . Both papers discuss in detail the reactive sputter process and its stability problems . Indeed, the addition of the reactive gas results not only in the formation of a compound on the substrate but also on the target or cathode surface . This can result in a sudden decrease of the deposition rate and an abrupt change in the partial pressure of the reactive gas , the so-called hysteresis or poisoning effect . Although both papers give an excellent overview of the reactive sputter process and the techniques to circumvent the hysteresis effect , recent experimental and modelling results show that several fundamental aspects concerning reactive sputtering have not been elucidated yet. One of the major problems of the reactive sputter process is its complexity . Indeed, to understand and describe this deposition process in all its details, a complete characterisation and description of the sputter process is necessary. More specific, the interaction between target processes , plasma processes , the sputter process and subsequent collisional transport of the sputtered particles through the gas phase and all substrate processes should be taken into account since all of them are related to each other. Attempts to obtain such a total description of the sputter process are ongoing in or research group . A good understanding of the reactive sputtering process is essential when tailoring the thin film properties. Indeed, several authors have shown that the plasma chemistry plays a crucial role in the development of the microstructure and the crystallographic orientation of the deposited thin films . It is beyond doubt that the crystallographic orientation and the microstructure influence a wide variety of thin film properties. For “simple” materials these relationships have been thoroughly examined. However, most of the new technological interesting materials have a complex chemical (and crystalline) structure . These multi-elemental materials allow to tune many parameters, including lattice constants, electronic band structures, and magnetic properties. References * W.D. Westwood, Sputter Deposition, AVS Education Committee Books Series, Volume 2, AVS (New York) 2003 (ISBN 0-7354-0105-5) * “Fundamental understanding and modeling of reactive sputtering processes” S. Berg, T. Nyberg, Thin Solid Films 476 (2005) 215-230 * “Control of reactive sputtering processes” W.D. Sproul, D.J. Christie, D.C. Carter, Thin Solid Films 491 (2005) 1-17 * “Target poisoning during reactive magnetron sputtering: Part I: the influence of ion implantation” D. Depla, R. De Gryse, Surf. Coat. Technol. 183 (2004) 184-189 (Link-) * “Modeling of the target surface modification by reactive ion implantation during magnetron sputtering” D. Depla D, Z.Y. Chen, A. Bogaerts, V. Ignatova, R. De Gryse, R. Gijbels, J. Vac. Sci. Technol. A22 (2004) 1524-1529 (Link-) *“Comprehensive perspective on the mechanism of preferred orientation in reactive- sputter-deposited nitrides” Y. Kajikawa, S. Noda, H.Komiyama, J. Vac. Sci. Technol. A 21 (2003) 1943-1959 * “Mechanism of preferential orientation in sputter deposited titanium nitride and yttria- stabilized zirconia layers” S. Mahieu, P. Ghekiere, G. De Winter, S. Heirwegh, D. Depla, R. De Gryse, O.I. Lebedev, G. Van Tendeloo, J. Cryst. Growth 279 (2005) 100-109 (Link-) * "Reactive Sputter Deposition" edited by D. Depla and S. Mahieu, Springer, 978-3540766629 (Link-) * "Biaxial alignment in sputter deposited thin films" S. Mahieu, P. Ghekiere, D. Depla, R. De Gryse, Thin Solid Films 515 (2006) 1229 (Link-)
个人分类: 网文精短|9 次阅读|0 个评论
[转载] how to write a paper (one possible answer)
zuojun 2011-11-14 08:10
Use the link below, if you can: http://blogs.nature.com/nyc/2011/08/10/how-to-write-a-paper-one-possible-answer ? Posted by chris wiggins on Aug 10, 2011 how to write a paper a student recently asked me how to write a paper. here's an algorithm i'd suggest, with plenty of room for an individual to deviate. punchline(s) nickname *figures *references outline abstract (w) intro and outtro (w) middle show definite coauthors show possible coauthors acknowledgements title code submit and post punchline(s) readers, reviewers, and you in 5 years are going to want to have some pithy way of remembering that paper. what is the "main result"? what did you learn? if answering this takes a long time, maybe you don't understand the subject well yet, or maybe it's really 2 papers. nickname most of the projects i work on have a nickname for the project. sometimes it's just the name of the cvs/svn/github repository. it helps you and your collaborators define a bite-size quantum of research. figures decide what figures are necessary to illustrate the punchline. decide which are going in the mansucript and which in supplementary material. the * indicates that this is how people read the paper -- they'll skim the figures and references first references decide who you should cite to support the argument and set the background/context. see above for *. someone i know once said to me that the first thing she or he reads in a paper is the references to see if she or he is cited. i'm still not sure if she or he was serious. outline next write an outline. seriously you need to do this. don't just sit down and start writing stuff. abstract now you are allowed to write the abstract (w) intro now write the beginning of the paper. the (w) indicates that htis is the part of the alogirhtm most people think of when they think of "writing a paper" (w) outtro now write the conclusions, what you showed, what you'd like to do in subsequent papers, where to find the source code. (w) middle now write the rest show definite coauthors if you haven't already, make sure you show to people who are going to be coauthors show possible coauthors if you haven't already, show it to people who may or may not want to be coauthors. be generous acknowledgements think about everyone who helped you and funded you. be generous. also people from the above section who elected not to be coauthors should be acknowledged title code if your work is computational (including modeling and statistical work), upload all code + data to a neutral, 3rd party site (e.g., code.google.com, github.com, sourceforge.net ). For more on this see this blog post or this talk or this roundtable . submit post to arxiv.org I'm not sure which is supposed to come first, but it seems reasonable to me that one submit to the journal and, as soon as possible thereafter, post to arxiv.org, with a note saying "submitted for publication" in the comment field.
个人分类: Scientific Writing|1952 次阅读|0 个评论
中国拯救世界
热度 2 ywang69 2011-11-7 10:58
有个美国来我校的留学生给我发了封邮件,想在周末找一个part-time job,看来中国确实经济状况不错,英语的重要性妇孺皆知,家长们也舍得花钱让孩子不出国门和老外面对面学英语。 现在中央电视台不少频道的洋面孔主持人越来越多,早期的加拿大人大山,非洲黑人郝歌等等都觉得中国好挣钱不想离开淘金之地。 美国人都跑到中国来打工,美国需要中国援助,欧盟需要中国伸手拉一把,中国不断豁免非洲国家的外债------ 中国拯救世界绝非浪得虚名! 邮件如下: Dear prof.Wang, Would it be possible to just work on the weekendsI have class during the week. i am a native english speaker from america.My cellphone is xxxxxx Sincerely XXX
个人分类: 心得杂谈|3349 次阅读|2 个评论
Moncler Women Down Coat Red
zhangzhanga 2011-10-20 12:39
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个人分类: Moncler|17 次阅读|0 个评论
[转载]Giving HCG Earlier Doesn't Increase Pregnancies
xuxiaxx 2011-10-18 08:01
Earlier use of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) didn't boost the odds of pregnancy in a recent trial in Europe. Given that delaying hCG by one day did not decrease the probability of pregnancy in antagonist cycles, "it appears possible... to completely avoid weekend oocyte retrievals by either bringing forward or delaying by one day the hCG administration," lead author Dr. Dimitra Kyrou told Reuters Health by email. The hCG was used in cycles stimulated with recombinant follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) and gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) antagonists, according to a September 15th online report in Fertility and Sterility. Dr. Kyrou of Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels and colleagues note that "because earlier triggering of final oocyte maturation is expected to result in lower progesterone levels on the day of hCG administration, it might be assumed that such an intervention might result in a higher probability of pregnancy." To investigate, the researchers studied 120 women younger than 40 who underwent in vitro fertilization or intracytoplasmic sperm injection. Ovarian stimulation was achieved using recombinant FSH starting on day two of the menstrual cycle at a fixed dose. Patients were randomized at initiation of stimulation to receive 10,000 IU of hCG as soon as three or more follicles of 16 mm or more were present, or one day later. To inhibit a premature LH surge, daily GnRH antagonist was used from day six of stimulation. Although significantly lower levels of progesterone and estradiol were seen at the time of hCG administration in the earlier group and similar good-quality embryos were available for transfer, there was no increase in the probability of pregnancy, according to the report. Positive hCG was seen in 46.2% of the early group compared to 50% of the late group. There were similar findings for ongoing pregnancy rates (34.6% versus 40.7%). The researchers note that their results agree with those of an earlier retrospective study, which suggested that bringing forward the triggering of final oocyte maturation by one day, to avoid weekend oocyte collections, did not appear to have an adverse impact on IVF treatment outcomes. Based on their findings, the researchers say, it may feasible to avoid weekend oocyte retrievals. SOURCE: http://bit.ly/oTmgRE Fertil Steril 2011. 来源:http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/751564
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