对拉奎拉地震前的4级小震，意大利大灾委员会发布了一次新闻发布会，很明确的指出未来是安全的，一周之后来了一个大地震，造成了人员伤亡和财产损失。现在开始秋后算账了，地震学家被以误杀罪起诉，这个官司的技术含量太高了，显然从地震学家的角度而言，这样的起诉是没有道理的。不过地震不能预报，信心十足地说一定没有地震也有一定风险。 http://www.nature.com/news/2010/100623/full/465992a.html Published online 22 June 2010 | Nature 465 , 992 (2010) | doi:10.1038/465992a News Italy puts seismology in the dock Scientists who assessed earthquake risk at L'Aquila could be indicted on manslaughter charges. Nicola Nosengo ROME The deadly earthquake that struck the central Italian city of L'Aquila on 6 April 2009, has had a bizarre aftershock: some of Italy's top seismologists could face charges of manslaughter for not alerting the population before the disaster. The indictment has outraged experts around the world, who note that earthquakes cannot be predicted and who say that the Italian government neglected to enforce building codes that could have reduced the toll. Citizens blame scientists for not warning of the LAquila earthquake. A. TARANTINO/AP PHOTO The indictments, issued on 3 June by the L'Aquila public prosecutor's office, name six scientists as being investigated for manslaughter in relation to the earthquake. In Italy, this step usually precedes a request for a court trial, and is meant to allow the accused time to prepare their defence. The list comprises Enzo Boschi, president of the National Institute for Geophysics and Vulcanology (INGV) in Rome, the main institute in charge of seismic monitoring; Giulio Selvaggi, director of the National Earthquake Center based at INGV; Franco Barberi, a volcanologist at the University of 'Roma Tre'; Claudio Eva, a professor of earth physics at the University of Genoa; Mauro Dolce, head of the seismic risk office in the Italian government's Civil Protection Agency; and Gian Michele Calvi, director of the European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering in Pavia. A government official, Bernardo De Bernardinis, deputy technical head of the Civil Protection Agency, is also under investigation. Assigning blame On 31 March 2009, all seven were in L'Aquila at a meeting of the Major Risks Committee, an expert group that advises the Civil Protection Agency on the risks of natural disasters. Frequent tremors had been recorded in the surrounding Abruzzo region, culminating in a magnitude-4.0 earthquake on 30 March. The meeting was convened by the service to ask the scientists whether a major earthquake was on its way. Immediately after that meeting, De Bernardinis and Barberi, acting president of the committee, held a press conference in L'Aquila, where De Bernardinis told reporters that the scientific community tells us there is no danger, because there is an ongoing discharge of energy. The situation looks favorable . （说的太自信了） No other members of the committee were at the press conference. But on 6 April a magnitude-6.3 earthquake struck L'Aquila, killing 308 people, leaving about 1,600 injured and more than 65,000 homeless. A group of local citizens later said that many of the earthquake's victims had been planning to leave their homes but had changed their minds after the committee's statements. （这个可能是起诉的关键） In August 2009 they filed a formal request asking a prosecutor to investigate. L'Aquila's chief prosecutor, Alfredo Rossini, told the Italian press on 3 June that this had left him no choice but to proceed with an investigation and that his office had now gathered enough information to indict the individuals named. The minutes of the 31 March meeting, though, reveal that at no point did any of the scientists say that there was no danger of a big quake. A major earthquake in the area is unlikely but cannot be ruled out, Boschi said. Selvaggi is quoted as saying that in recent times some recent earthquakes have been preceded by minor shocks days or weeks beforehand, but on the other hand many seismic swarms did not result in a major event. Eva added that because L'Aquila is in a high-risk zone it is impossible to say with certainty that there will be no large earthquake. Summing up the meeting, Barberi said, there is no reason to believe that a swarm of minor events is a sure predictor of a major shock. All the participants agreed that buildings in the area should be monitored urgently, to assess their capacity to sustain a major shock. These are the only sensible statements any scientist could make at that point, says Susan Hough, a geophysicist at the US Geological Survey in Pasadena, California. But Hough does disagree with some of the things said at the press conference. The idea that minor earthquakes release energy and thus make things better is a common misperception. But seismologists know it's not true, she says. I doubt any scientist could have said that. De Bernardinis, Boschi and Selvaggi said that they were unable to comment on the case because of the ongoing investigation. Before the indictment, Boschi had criticized the Civil Protection Agency's handling of the 31 March meeting. Such a meeting, he stated in a letter on 16 September 2009 to Guido Bertolaso, the head of the Civil Protection Agency, should have lasted hours if the Civil Protection Agency really wanted to consider all the data. Instead it only lasted one hour, and it was not followed by a joint statement but by a press conference about which we were not informed. The Civil Protection Agency responded by asking Boschi why he waited six months before objecting to the nature of the meeting, and stated that Boschi never explained what specific actions the department should have taken to reduce the risks from a potential earthquake. Solidarity Staff at INGV have signed a letter of solidarity with Boschi and Selvaggi. Seismologists worldwide have also rallied to the defence of the scientists, with almost 4,000 researchers from 100 different countries signing a letter to Giorgio Napolitano, Italy's president, urging decision-makers to concentrate on earthquake preparedness and risk mitigation rather than on prosecuting scientists for failing to do something they cannot do yet predict earthquakes. Barry Parsons, at the department of earth sciences at the University of Oxford, who signed the letter, says that Italy's maps of seismic risk are of the highest possible standard, and clearly show that Abruzzo is a very high-risk area. The proven and effective way of protecting populations is by enforcing strict building codes, he says. Scientists are often asked the wrong question, which is 'when will the next earthquake hit?' The right question is 'how do we make sure it won't kill so many people when it hits?'
意大利为什么起诉 地震 专家 -------------------------------------------------- 作者：嵇少丞 二周前，意大利拉奎拉市地方检察院以过失杀人罪起诉 地震 专家。起诉书上指控由地震专家组成的高危委员会在地震前 6 天举行的会议上没有向民众提出短期地震警报。据说，该官司得到当地居民的支持，居民认为，地震专家的工资和研究经费来自人民的税，却不能有效地为人民服务，犯了渎职罪和过失杀人罪。这场官司最终如何收场，我们拭目以待。 必须强调，高危委员会中的地震专家遭到起诉，并不是因为他们没能预报地震，而是因为如下事实：主震之前该地区发生一系列小地震（前震），民众中流传将发生强震的谣言，高危委员会的专家们在主震前 6 天举行的新闻发布会上说：小震已经释放了积累的地震能量，所以大震不再可能。新闻发布会后6天即2009年4月6日 发生了6.3级强震。拉奎拉市地方检察院认为，高危委员会的小震已经释放了积累的地震能量，所以大震不再可能（预报不地震）的结论是没有科学根据的，这样毫无科学基础的结论麻痹了民众，误导了民众。所以，从这层意义上说，意大利拉奎拉市地方检察院起诉 地震 专家还是合情合理的。支持更多国家的民众起诉毫无科学根据 预报不地震的地震专家( http://www.56.com/flashApp/56.10.05.05.swf?vid=50749197 ) ！ 2009 年 4 月 6 日 欧洲中部夏令时间 凌晨 3 时 32 分在 意大利 中部地区一场 6.3级 地震 。地震震中位于 阿布鲁佐大区 首府 拉奎拉 ，距离 罗马 95 公里 。震源深度为 10 公里，地震持续了 15 到 20 秒。该场地震造成大量房屋倒埸，并至少造成 290 人死亡， 1500 人受伤， 另有数以万计的人无家可归。很多历史性的建筑也遭到了破坏。估计需要大约 160 亿美元的资金重建遭到地震重创的地区。 意大利拉奎拉市地方检察院以过失杀人罪起诉地震专家，将开历史先河（中国是否会跟进？)。意大利地震和地质专家 Daniela Pantosti ， Alberto Michelini ， Alessandro Amato ， Massimo Cocco ， Ingrid Hunstad ， Warner Marzocchi ， Claudio Chiarabba ， Massimiliano Stucchi 在网上联合呼吁世界各国科学家支持他们，反对拉奎拉市地方检察院的指控。现有4000多名学者在给意大利总统的公开信上签了名。有兴趣的读者可以登录如下网址： www.mi.ingv.it/open_letter/ . Subject: Letter of support for Italian earthquake scientists indicted for failing to predict the L'Aquila Earthquake Dear colleagues and friends, Two weeks ago the LAquila Prosecutors office indicted of manslaughter the members of the National High Risk Committee that met in L'Aquila one week before the Mw6.3 earthquake. The charges are for failing to provide a short term alarm to the population before the earthquake struck, killing more than 300 people. The president of INGV, Enzo Boschi (member of the High Risk Committee), and the director of the National Earthquake Center, Giulio Selvaggi (just accompanying Boschi to the meeting as technical specialist), are among the scientists in seismology and earthquake engineeringnow under investigation together with somecivil protection officials. We think that the allegations against the scientists are completely unfounded and we look for support on this from the international scientific community working on earthquakes and in the Earth sciences in general. We invite you to sign the letter addressed to the President of the Italian Republic, published at the the web page www.mi.ingv.it/open_letter/ . We also would be glad if you could extend this invitation to other seismologists that can possibly share our initiative. We hope that by this action we can increase the awareness of people on earthquake risk reduction through education, preparedness, and a long term program of building reinforcement. Thank you in advance for your support Daniela Pantosti Alberto Michelini Alessandro Amato Massimo Cocco Ingrid Hunstad Warner Marzocchi Claudio Chiarabba Massimiliano Stucchi Open letter to the President of the Republic of Italy Two weeks ago in Italy, the LAquila Prosecutors office indicted scientists, some of them members of the Commissione Grandi Rischi (Commission for High Risks), and civil protection officials for manslaughter. The basis for the indictment is that these people did not provide a short-term alarm to the population after a meeting of the Commission held in LAquila six days before the Mw 6.3 earthquake that struck that city and the surrounding area. The allegations against the scientists are completely unfounded. Years of research worldwide have shown that there is currently no scientifically accepted method for short-term earthquake prediction that can reliably be used by Civil Protection authorities for rapid and effective emergency actions. The international seismological community has long recognized that the best approach to defending populations from catastrophic earthquakes is not through earthquake prediction, but through risk mitigation and the application of appropriate safety measures to prevent buildings from collapsing. In this regard, the development of seismic hazard maps, which provide estimates of the probability of occurrence of predefined values of peak ground motion in a given time period, provide the specifications required by building codes to avoid collapse of buildings and the resulting fatalities Italy is an earthquake-prone country. An improved seismic hazard map that summarizes decades of research on earthquake occurrence and effects was completed in 2004 (see http://zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it/ ). It is the result of the work of many scientists, it is considered to be one of the best seismic hazard maps in Europe, and it has been used as a basis for the Italian building code beginning in 2008 ( Norme Tecniche per le Costruzioni, GU n.29 del 04/02/2008 ). It should be viewed as the primary contribution of the Italian earthquake scientists to their Country. Seismic hazard maps must also be used for conveying to the population the basic concepts of earthquake hazard, awareness, preparedness, and response. Increased consciousness of the earthquake hazard and associated risk should also foster further prevention actions by national and local authorities. Overall, earthquake preparedness and damage prevention in the form of retrofitting are not only possible but mandatory in a country affected for the most by moderate size earthquakes that often result in catastrophes for the society because of the large percentage of seismically unreinforced buildings. Education, awareness, preparedness and retrofitting are the best tools for mitigating the impact of the catastrophic earthquakes that will inevitably affect Italy in the future. The scientific community involved in earthquake science urges the Italian government, local authorities and decision makers in general, to be proactive in establishing and carrying out local and national programs to support earthquake preparedness and risk mitigation rather than prosecuting scientists for failing to do something they cannot do yet - predict earthquakes.
Dear Colleague, This email is to inform you of the 2010/2011 announcement of the Doctoral Programme in Economics and Managementorganized by CIFREM, the Interdepartmental Centre for Research Training in Economics and Management of the University of Trento. The doctoral school has developed as a community of top faculty and outstanding and dedicated students coming from the some of the worlds top-ranked universities. The internationalization and diversity of the faculty in terms of background and research areas properly matched by the diversity among the students create an appealing learning and researching environment. The highly qualified teaching staff boasts names such as Christopher L. Gilbert, Paola Manzini, Marco Mariotti, Luigi Mittone, John Padgett, Massimo Riccaboni and Kumaraswamy Velupillai. The programme focuses on two areas: Behavioural Economics and Management; International Economics and Management (offered in conjunction with the Doctoral School of International Studies) The programme will normally be completed in four years. The language of instruction is English. Please note that the deadline for applications is June 8, 2010. I would be grateful if you would circulate this notice to your colleagues and to anyone who might be interested. I would be happy to mail promotional material to any other potential recipients please email me addresses. For further and more detailed information about the programme please visit the following websites: http://portale.unitn.it/drem/ and http://portale.unitn.it/en/ec/phd/em.htm and/or contact: Mrs. Nicole Bertotti cifrem@economia.unitn.it Please find attached the PhD poster, brochure and selection announcement. Thank you in advance for your co-operation. Please do not hesitate to contact me if you require any further information. With best regards, Christopher L. Gilbert Head of the Doctoral School in Economics and Management ------------------------------------- CIFREM - Interdepartmental Centre for Research Training in Economics and Management Faculty of Economics - Via Rosmini, 70 - 38100 Trento - IT phone: + 39 0461 28 2290 - fax: + 39 0461 28 2335 e-mail: cifrem@economia.unitn.it - website: http://portale.unitn.it/drem/ The office is open from 8:30 a.m. to 1.00 p.m. (Monday - Friday) PS： 特仑托是一个很宁静美丽的小镇，曾在那里住了两个星期，很喜欢。
标签: 意大利
