2019 年12月中下旬在湖北省武汉市出现的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情，目前全国已累计确诊超过8万人，死亡3000多人，这是继2002年SARS疫情发生以来，中国本土再次发生的重大公共卫生事件。世界卫生组织已于2020年1月31日宣布该事件构成“国际关注的突发公共卫生事件”，并于3月11日宣布“新冠肺炎疫情已经构成全球性大流行”。 自新冠肺炎疫情发生以来，新冠肺炎病毒的起源、传播及演变备受关注。而围绕这些问题，科学界也出现了很多争议的声音。面对新型冠状病毒肺炎大流行，科学界不仅会产生以下疑问：新型冠状病毒肺炎为什么会在2019年出现？为什么会在中国出现爆发？导致新型冠状病毒肺炎出现的首要因素是什么？哪些因素促进了新型冠状病毒肺炎的流行？我们怎样才能够提前预测未来的新发病毒传染病？为了理解这些复杂的问题，需要与包括对环境感兴趣的气象学、地球物理学和天文科学家之间建立新的跨学科对话和合作。由于目前的纯医学和唯病毒研究无法彻底解决类似新型冠状病毒肺炎等新发病毒性传染病的起源问题，所以为了找到导致新型冠状病毒肺炎发生的奇怪的“新常态”或新的因素，我们将需要抛弃我们的学术孤岛（即学术上相互隔离，不进行合作和沟通）和舒适地带，与新领域的科学家们合作，以便提高今后传染病预防控制工作的预见性和主动性。 实际上，新发病毒性传染病是可以预测的。 近些年来，我们的科研团队一直从事新发病毒性传染病的预测预警和发生机制研究，并且提出了“ 新发病毒性传染病的太空射线学说 ”。 2019年11月25日，中英澳日本的科学家联合（ 本人作为通讯作者 ）在 Current Science 上发表了 SpaceWeatherandPandemicWarnings? 的论文，并明确指出， 由于太阳黑子活动处于近100年最弱的时期，全球宇宙射线大幅增强，并紧急提醒全球接下来几个月很快会出现新的病毒并引起大流行，公共卫生部门必须提高警惕并采取适当的行动，并提前发布了预警，新型冠状病毒肺炎的大流行验证了该预警的准确性 。 论文见： Space weather and pandemic warnings.pdf 这几天，似乎我们的理论和相关的研究论文在全球持续引起一些学者的关注，陆续有外国学者通过电子邮件跟我保持沟通。我给他们的回复中明确提到：科学界和一些传统期刊仍然拒绝接受我们的理论。因此，我们的论文只能发表在一些不太重要的期刊上。如果科学界能够尽早关注和认可我们的理论，或许全球就可以避免今天的新冠病毒大流行。 我们的这篇通信论文，当初投到一些高影响因子以及传统期刊上，编辑都不愿意接收。只有 Current Science 最有远见，感谢他们的编辑！ 吃一堑，长一智。面对今天的新型冠状病毒大流行，面对疫情引发的严重的政治经济影响，科学界是不是该反省点什么了？ 请大家关注： 武汉不明原因肺炎是新发病毒性传染病预测预警的一次成功验证 http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-529903-1212902.html Dear Prof. J Qu, I read with interest yourcorrespondenceSpace weather and pandemic warning? published in Current Science, Vol.117, No.10, 25 November 2019. You have mentioned, On the basis of this data, there appears tobe a prima facie case for expectingnew viral strains to emerge over the coming months and it would be prudent for Public Health Authorities the world over to be vigilant and prepared for any necessary action. I wonder if the if the present endemic of Corona-19 virus can be attributed to the solar minimum of the 24th cycle, which had the deepest sunspot minimum for a century, with more spotless days per week than in previous minima. Kindly share your views on this. Thanking you, Murthy. 尊敬的曲教授：， 我饶有兴趣地阅读了你写的通信论文“太空天气和大流行警告？”，发表于《当代科学》，第117卷，第10期，2019年11月25日。你已经提到，“根据这一数据，似乎有一个初步证据表明，预计未来几个月将出现新的病毒株，世界各地的公共卫生当局应保持警惕，做好采取任何必要行动的准备”。我想知道，目前流行的Covid-19病毒是否可以归因于第24个太阳活动周期的最低值，“近一个世纪来太阳黑子活动最弱的时期，每周的无黑子数比以前的最低值还要多。” 请分享你对此的看法。 谢谢你， 默西 另一个外国学者昨天的来信： Dear Dr. Qu, My name is Thom, I am a physicist but interested in all kinds of science. I just accidentally came across your recent paper predicting a pandemic in the coming months back in November 2019: https://www.currentscience.ac.in/Volumes/117/10/1554.pdf So, I got interested and read your other paper: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/rmv.1887 In this paper, you speak about influenza pandemics, but I believe everything you state there should largely also apply to coronaviruses, does it not? Best, Thom 我回复以后，该学者的再次回复： Dear Qu, Thanks a lot for your answer and paper. I hope for you that your ideas will receive the attention that they deserve. I can tell from the journals you choose for publishing some of your studies that you probably have a very difficult time to publish your ideas in standard journals, which is a shame. There is, unfortunately, a strong bias in science against out-of-the-box hypotheses. I wish you good luck for your future. Best, Thom 尊敬的曲博士：， 非常感谢你的回答和论文。我希望你的想法能得到应有的重视。我可以从你选择出版的一些研究期刊上看出，你可能很难在标准期刊上发表你的想法，这是一个耻辱。不幸的是，科学界对“盒子之外“观点有强烈的偏见。 祝你未来好运。 最好的 Wick
当大家还在讨论新型冠状病毒肺炎的时候，今天我必须向大家谈的是，这种传染病控制住一点问题没有，但是有一个问题，那就是这种传染病大概率不会当年就消失，要警惕在今后几年内持续流行！根据我们的太空射线学说，从中长期看， 地球村已经进入了新发病毒高发期和频发期 ，未来30年左右会不断出现各种新发病毒传染病！理由是，地磁场减弱，太阳活动减弱，宇宙射线大幅增强！下一次传染病大流行大概率是流感大流行！出现地点大概率会是以墨西哥为中心的美洲地区和中国大陆周围，时间点是近一两年得事情！当这些传染病大规模流行的时候，请大家不要问我们的地球村怎么了？因为这就是自然规律，天人合一的规律！这是我们敢于发出预测预警的底气！防控新发病毒性传染病时刻不能松懈！ 随着地磁场和太阳活动的减弱，宇宙射线活动在不断增强，再加上太平洋上有可能再次出现强厄尔尼诺现象、候鸟迁徙季的到来以及人间季节性流感活动的异常增强，全球正面临一次新的流感大流行。美国季节性流感传播异常将增加新型流感大流行的出现的概率！2020年3-5月份是高风险期！ 预则立，不预则废！全球公共卫生体系将面临巨大挑战！ https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap Are we approaching a new influenza pandemic? N. Chandra Wickramasinghe , 1,2,3 * Jiangwen Qu 4 , 1 Department of Infectious Disease Control, Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, China 2 Buckingham Centre for Astrobiology, University of Buckingham, UK; 3 Sri Lanka Centre for Astrobiology, University of Ruhuna, Sri Lanka; 4 General Sir John Kotelawala Defence University, Sri Lanka 4 Department of Infectious Disease Control, Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, China Contributed equally：共同第一作者 *Corresponding: N. Chandra Wickramasinghe, E-Mail: ncwick@gmail.com , Tel/Fax number: +44 (0)2920752146 / +44 (0)7778389243 Abstract Over the past several months influenza activity has continued to increase in the temperate zones of the northern hemisphere and has led to a concern over global health and the impending prospect of another major pandemic. Based on a range of available evidence we argue that the current influenza situation might be related to the on-going La Niña phenomenon accompanied by increased precipitation patterns in the Pacific. The four most recent human influenza pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009) were preceded by La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific, and almost all influenza pandemics in history fall within ± 1 year of sunspot extrema. Sunspot activity will reach its minimum in 2019. Therefore, a new influenza pandemic may well be imminent now, one hundred years after the 1918-1919 pandemic. It will therefore be prudent and timely to strengthen worldwide surveillance strategies and to prepare ourselves for a future emergency. Influenza activity has continued to increase in the temperate zones of the northern hemisphere from the end of 2017 to the beginning of 2018 and has led to a significant concern over global health. Some countries have reported levels of hospitalization and ICU admissions reaching or exceeding the peak levels associated with previous influenza seasons. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), flu activity is now widespread throughout most of the United States, and the number of states experiencing exceptionally “high” influenza activity increased from 32 states (plus New York City and Puerto Rico) to 39 states (plus New York City and Puerto Rico). It is of interest to explore some of the mechanisms that might be responsible for the sudden surge of influenza cases. There are indications to suggest that Influenza activitytends to be significantly higher during times when La Niña conditions prevail . If so it might be argued that the current influenza situation might be related to the on-going La Niña (opposite of El Niño) phenomenon in the Pacific which could well serve as a driver of new viral pandemics. The six pandemics on record since 1889 all emerged in the Northern Hemisphere following the “normal” flu season, suggesting that some other forces may predictably constrain pandemic risk . Furthermore, a recent study has shown that the four most recent human influenza pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009) were preceded by La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific . Some extreme climatic events such as extremely cold weather caused by La Niña conditions can alter the migration route, stopover time, fitness, and interspecies mixing of migratory birds and arguably affect their intermingling with domestic animals, within the constraints of a purely Earth-bound theory of biological evolution and influenza modelling . In a recent review we have shown, however, that a purely Earth-bound theory of biology may be deeply flawed . Perhaps, more importantly, atmospheric and indeed space weather conditions could promote or enhance the role of extraterrestrial influences, including the arrival of external virions . In particular the role of cosmic rays could be important in providing new pathways for the arrival of new virions, as well as the modification of already circulating viruses . The connection between sunspot activity and certain aspects of global climate is in general well attested in the literature. At a minor level a correlation it has been found that fluctuations of solar cycle length and mean atmospheric temperature are possibly linked. A more significant effect is found in the Manunder minimum when during an exceptionally cold interlude (mini-ice age) between 1645-1715 there was very little sunspot activity, It is possibly no coincidence that almost all influenza pandemics in history fall within ± 1 year of sunspot extrema (maxima and minima) , and we should note with a sense of caution that sunspot activity is indeed predicted to reach a record low minimum in 2019 . According to the record of Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations of World Data Center, sunspot activity will reach its low minimum in 2019 (Figure 1). Figure 1 Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number Daily sunspot number (yellow), monthly mean sunspot number (blue), smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last 13 years and 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed sunspot number: SC (red dots) : prediction method based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; It is only based on the sunspot number series. CM (red dashes) : method (from K. Denkmayr and P. Cugnon) combining a regression technique applied to the sunspot number series with the aa geomagnetic index used as a precursor (improved predictions during the minimum phase between solar cycles). New data released by the European Space Agency (ESA) further reveals that the strength of the geomagnetic field is systematically weakening by around 5% every ten years, which is nearly ten times faster than previous estimates . Furthermore, it is weakening faster in some places more than in others. For example, the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) is a large depression of the Earth’s magnetic field intensity characterized by values of geomagnetic field intensity around 30% lower than that expected for those latitudes, and this covers a large area in the South Atlantic Ocean and South America. According to Swarm satellite monitoring results, SAA has moved steadily westward and weakened further by about 2%. Cosmic rays, particularly galactic cosmic rays, can reach their maximum intensity when the earth's magnetic field is declining dramatically and when the sun is least active. Low solar activity can also give rise to exceptionally cold winters in northern Europe and the United States . The superposition of all these conditions and circumstances that are now well attested can promote epidemics involving a wide range of influenza subtypes. Influenza pandemics can emerge via genomic re-assortment between circulating human and animal strains and also almost certainly with the introduction of extrinsic viral components . Abnormal climate change patterns caused by the combination of a deep solar minimum and La Niña conditions can bring divergent influenza subtypes together in some parts of the world. In addition to the possibility of externally introduced virions this could facilitate the re-assortment of circulating influenza virions through simultaneous multiple infection of individual hosts, thus resulting in the emergence of an antigenically novel strain capable of causing a devastating worldwide pandemic. In view of the geographic localization of the environmental effects we have discussed the area around South America is very likely to be a possible starting point of the next influenza pandemic. In summary, there are powerful indicators to suggest that a new influenza pandemic is fast approaching, almost 100 years after the devastating historic pandemic of 1918/1919. It will thus be prudent and timely to strengthen worldwide vigilance and surveillance strategies including space weather and stratospheric monitoring and to prepare ourselves for a future emergency. References 1.ViboudC,PakdamanK,BoëllePY,et al.Association of influenza epidemics with global climate variability . Eur J Epidemiol ,2004,19(11):1055-1059. 2. FlahaultA,ViboudC,PakdamanK,et al.Association of influenza epidemics in France and the USA with global climate variability .Intl Congress Series, 2004,1263(2004):73-77 3. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php 4.Spencer J. Fox , Joel C. Miller, et al. Seasonality in risk of pandemic influenza emergence . PLoS Comput Biol. 201713(10):e1005749; 5.ShamanJ,LipsitchM.The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–pandemic Influenza connection: Coincident or causal? . PNAS ,2013,110(suppl 1):3689-3691. 6. Steele, E.J. et al., Cause of Cambrian Explosion - Terrestrial or Cosmic?, Progress in Biophysics and Molecular Biology. 2018 136:3-23. 7.Hoyle, F. and Wickramasinghe, N.C., Influenza – Evidence against contagion, Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, 1990,83(4), 58 8.Qu J. (2016) Is sunspot activity a factor in influenza pandemics? . Rev Med Virol. 2016;309-313. 9. Qu et al., (2016) Sunspot Activity, Influenza and Ebola Outbreak Connection , Astrobiol Outreach, 4:2 10.Ineson S, Scaife AA, Knight JR, et al. Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere . Nature Geoscience, 2011,4:753-757. 11.ChristopherF, NilsO, StavrosK, NicolasG, LarsT. Recent geomagnetic secular variation from Swarm and ground observatories as estimated in the CHAOS ‑ 6 geomagnetic field model. Earth, Planets and Space.2016;68:112. 流感大流行预警论文： https://www.hilarispublisher.com/open-access/are-we-approaching-a-new-influenza-pandemic.pdf 原标题：世界动物卫生组织：高致病性H5N8禽流感在沙特爆发 4日，沙特首都利雅得的工人穿着防护服，在农场中搬运箱子。 世界动物卫生组织（OIE）本周宣布，一种传染性极强的H5N8亚型禽流感在沙特阿拉伯爆发。 据路透社2月5日报道，世界动物卫生组织援引沙特环境、水资源和农业部的消息称，禽流感爆发于沙特中部的苏德尔地区，已导致超过2.2万只鸟类死亡，另有38.5万只禽类被扑杀。这是自2018年7月以来沙特首次爆发H5N8病毒。 沙特阿拉伯环境、水和农业部2月4日发表声明说，沙特一处家禽饲养场发现高致病性H5N8型禽流感疫情，目前该饲养场近40万只禽鸟已被扑杀。 沙特环境、水和农业部发言人阿卜杜拉·哈伊勒说，应急小组在现场采取紧急措施后，疫情得到控制。 世界动物卫生组织已收到沙特环境、水资源和农业部的通报。通报说，该疫情发生在首都利雅得附近的苏德尔地区，导致超过2.2万只禽鸟死亡，该饲养场中的其余38.53万只禽鸟已全部被扑杀。这是自2018年7月以来沙特首次暴发H5N8型禽流感疫情。 哈伊勒呼吁家禽养殖户提高警惕，在处理禽类时采取适当的预防措施，并告诫民众不要猎杀候鸟或野鸟。 H5N8型禽流感病毒是一种禽类之间的高度传染性病毒。自2014年全球首次发现H5N8型禽流感病毒以来，尚未发现人感染这种病毒的病例。 责任编辑：郑亚鹏 https://news.sina.com.cn/w/2020-02-07/doc-iimxyqvz0931992.shtml 原标题：新疆湖南连发5起禽流感疫情，重大动物疫情形势仍严峻 2月1日，农业农村部新闻办公室官网发布， 湖南省邵阳市双清区发生一起家禽H5N1亚型高致病性禽流感疫情 。 根据中国动物疫病预防控制中心报告，经国家禽流感参考实验室确诊，邵阳市双清区某养殖户饲养的肉鸡发生H5N1亚型高致病性禽流感疫情。养殖户存栏肉鸡7850只，发病死亡4500只。 疫情发生后，当地按照有关预案和防治技术规范要求切实做好疫情处置工作，已扑杀家禽17828只，全部病死和扑杀家禽均已无害化处理。 连发5起亚型高致病性禽流感疫情 这已经是2020年以来，国家禽流感参考实验室确诊的第5起亚型高致病性禽流感疫情。 在此之前，新疆从1月8日起，1月16日、20日、21日，接连发生4起当地野生天鹅发生H5N6亚型高致病性禽流感疫情。 禽流感疫情的暴发，尤其是波及到家禽，再加上一湖之隔的湖北爆发新型肺炎疫情可能与野生动物有关，多个省份为有效防范疫情扩散，发布紧急通知，全面禁止市场销售活禽。 因此，这起家禽H5N1亚型高致病性禽流感疫情，一下子引发了舆论的关注。 关于禽流感疫情，湖南省农业农村厅已经进行了部署。 1月30日，湖南省农业农村厅召开全省重大动物疫病防控工作视频会议。会议指出，冬春季节是动物疫病高发季节。入冬以来，湖南省连续出现低温阴雨等恶劣天气，有利于病原微生物的繁殖生长，高致病性禽流感、口蹄疫、非洲猪瘟等重大动物疫情形势仍然严峻。春节过后，动物补栏调运频繁，候鸟向北迁徙，增加了疫病传入风险。部分去年秋季防疫畜禽已经超过有效保护期，动物抗病力整体下降，疫病发生风险增加。 湖南省防治重大动物疫病指挥部副指挥长、省农业农村厅党组书记、厅长袁延文强调，各级各部门要加快补齐重大动物疫情防控短板，切实增强重大动物疫情防控能力。并且提出重点做好包括“落实禽流感等重大动物疫病强制免疫措施”在内的6方面工作。 袁延文要求，做好高致病性禽流感等重大动物疫病防控工作是当前农业农村部门一项突出的重点工作，各级农业农村部门要切实加强组织领导，切实落实防控责任，进一步完善应急预案，做好防疫物资准备。 在此次关闭活禽交易之前，国内不少地方也一直存在活禽销售的行为。这背后既有顶层设计较为笼统，各地自行制定的管理办法存在差异，也有受传统习俗、消费观念等影响，不少消费者仍然习惯购买当场宰杀的活禽。 因此，尽管各地的活禽交易管理办法已出台多年，但“地下鸡市”一直存在。当然，集饲养、宰杀、销售为一体的活禽供应链发展仍不够成熟。 野生动物疫情将保持上升态势 第一财经记者掌握的信息，其实早在去年底，多方专家就进行了研判，结论是“2020年全国野生动物疫情将继续保持上升态势。” 国家林草局监测总站的消息称，2019年12月5~6日，国家林草局动植物司和野生动物疫源疫病监测总站，在海南省琼海市组织召开了2019年重点野生动物疫病主动预警工作总结会暨2020年野生动物疫病发生趋势会商会。 会商会上，来自中国科学院、军事科学院、中国农科院、中国疾病预防控制中心、全国鸟类环志中心、中山大学、东北林业大学等不同部门和院校的14位专家针对非洲猪瘟、禽流感、小反刍兽疫、西尼罗热等重要野生动物疫病的发生趋势和风险因素做了专题报告。 专家研判认为，2020年全国野生动物疫情将继续保持上升态势。非洲猪瘟在野猪种群中发生并继续扩大传播的风险较大；禽流感、狂犬病、鼠疫等人兽共患病的病原体在野生动物与家禽家畜间互传，并传播给人类的风险持续存在；小反刍兽疫、犬瘟热等对珍稀濒危野生动物种群安全的威胁较大，其病原体在野生动物与家畜间互传的风险不断增加；西尼罗热、尼帕病毒病等经边境地区野生动物传入我国的风险不可忽视。（本报记者章轲对本文亦有贡献） http://www.xyzc.cn/article-301930-1.html
我们在2019年11月25日发表的通信论文SpaceWeatherandPandemicWarnings?中明确指出， 提醒全球未来几个月很快会出现新的病毒。公共卫生部门必须提高警惕并采取适当的行动！ 请见论文原文。 本人是通讯作者。 结果论文发表后一个月，就在湖北省武汉市就出现了新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情，这是新发病毒性传染病射线学说和预测预警的一次科学验证。希望我们的理论引起全球科学界特别是公共卫生界的广泛关注！由于宇宙射线的增强以及地磁场的减弱，我们认为地球村目前已经进入新发病毒性传染病的高发期，未来1-2年有可能继续出现流感大流行等新发病毒传染病，全球公共卫生界需要持续保持警戒！ Are We Approaching a New Influenza Pandemic? https://www.hilarispublisher.com/abstract/are-we-approaching-a-new-influenza-pandemic-24922.html Figure 1 The current cycle 24 and predicted cycle 25 Space weather and pandemic warnings.pdf 我在2019年11月23日发表的博客《 加强太空天气监测，预警疾病大流行 》中指出：目前全球宇宙射线在大幅增强，根据我们提出的新发病毒性传染病的射线学说，地球村在2020年前后很可能出现包括流感在内的新发病毒传染病大流行，这是我们多次强调的观点，因此公共卫生部门要提高警惕，加强预测预警，并采取适当的行动预防传染病大流行的出现，将传染病流行造成的损失降到最低。我们既要脚踏实地，又要仰望星空，监测地磁场变化和太空天气将会成为未来疾病特别是新发病毒传染病大流行预警最有效的手段之一。 http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-529903-1210343.html 我在2019-12-17发表的博客《 脚踏实地，仰望星空：科学预警传染病大流行 》中指出：2020年前后会发生什么？由于目前太阳正在经历第24周期和第25周期之间的最小活动期，最近几个月太阳上的黑子几乎全部消失，并且处于近100年最弱的时期，宇宙射线大幅增强， 根据我们提出的最新理论，地球村在2020年前后很可能出现包括流感在内的新发病毒传染病大流行，这是我们首次以论文的形式向世界发出预警，因此公共卫生部门要提高警惕，加强预测预警，并采取适当的行动预防疾病大流行的出现，将疾病流行造成的损失降到最低。 监测太空天气将会成为未来疾病大流行预警最有效手段之一！ 预则立，不预则废！希望能有更多的学者去仰望星空，从而让医学特别是流行病学的发展能够更上一层楼！ http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-529903-1207309.html 英国媒体对我们论文的报道： Coronavirus could turn to global pandemic as freak solar minimum means outbreak ‘imminent' CORONAVIRUS could spread into a global pandemic due to a freak slump in solar activity, with experts warning of a spike in potentially deadly viruses. By NATHAN RAO PUBLISHED: 07:35, Sat, Jan 25, 2020 | UPDATED: 15:32, Sat, Jan 25, 2020 The “deepest sunspot minimum” for more than a century is about to force the Sun into partial hibernation, they say. Public health authorities have been warned to be vigilant with the phenomenon linked to historic viral pandemics. Previously unseen strains could emerge through the coming months while existing ones turn super-virulent, according to a report in Current Science. The news comes as Coronavirus rips through China, rapidly infecting more than 800 people. RELATED ARTICLES ‘She’s a TIMEBOMB’ Chinese woman hides Coronavirus symptoms in France Coronavirus horror: Footage shows infected residents act like zombies While not naming Coronavirus specifically as being caused by the solar minimum, experts say the weaker magnetic field caused by the drop in sunspots gives ground for new viruses to emerge. Lead author Chandra Wickramasinghe, of the Buckingham Centre for Astrobiology, said: “A global virus pandemic is imminent. “On the basis of sunspot numbers, this could have serious consequences globally during the coming months.” The solar slump is causing the Earth’s magnetic field to weaken allowing “biological entities” including DNA to fall to the planet’s surface. READ MORE: Desperate China tries to build 1,000-bed hospital in just TWO DAYS Coronavirus risks turning into global pandemic as freak solar minimum means outbreak ‘imminent’ (Image: AFP•GETTY) Scientists believe infective agents originating from comets and other planets inhabit near space in a type of soup – the so-called panspermia theory. While they can naturally drift towards Earth, they are largely held at bay by magnetic fields which are strengthened by solar activity. The imminent reduction in solar activity will knock a chink in this armour while “opening the floodgates” to a flux of cosmic rays”. These rays threaten to disrupt the DNA present in bacteria and viruses already present, creating super-virulent versions. Professor Wickramasinghe said: “There are two problems we fear may arise. “Biological entities can penetrate the weakened magnetic field under these circumstances to a much greater degree than under normal conditions. DONT MISS ‘Like Walking Dead’ Coronavirus hell as corpses litter hospitals Coronavirus latest: What you can do to prevent deadly virus spreading Coronavirus: Shadowy lab for world’s deadliest diseases in Wuhan Coronavirus map: Coronavirus has spread rapidly from China (Image: EXPRESS) “So we could see new, potentially deadly viruses, emerge on Earth after these floodgates are opened. “Another aspect is mutations induced by cosmic rays in biological infectious agents already here, this could give them new characteristics and making then super-virulent. “It would be prudent for public health authorities the world over to be vigilant and prepared for any necessary action.” Previous viral pandemics have coincided with periods of low solar activity although scientists have struggled to find a definitive link. However they now think the effect of the sun on magnetic fields affects solar winds and the flow of charged particles including bacteria and viruses. Professor Wickramasinghe said: “Now, with space exploration and continuous monitoring of space weather, it is evident that the Earth’s magnetosphere and the the interplanetary magnetic filed in its vicinity, are modulated by the solar wind that in turn controls the flow of charged particles onto the Earth. “There appears to be a case for expecting new viral strains to emerge over the coming months. “There are many claims that the occurrence of pandemic influenza and other viral outbreaks is correlated with the 11-year sunspot cycle. “We need hardly be reminded that the spectre of the 1918 devastating influenza pandemic stares us in the face from across a century.” However Dr Martin Wiselka, an infectious diseases consultant at the University of Leicester NHS Trust, dismissed the claims, saying: “There are lots of things to worry about but I don’t think this is one of them. “While there may be some truth in the theory of bits of DNA and viruses floating around space, there is no real evidence to support this, I think it just doesn’t happen. “We have got perfectly good explanations of how the coronavirus travels between the animal reservoir and the human reservoir. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1232974/coronavirus-china-virus-pandemic-WHO
左图：西藏ASgamma实验观测到蟹状星云方向100TeV以上的伽玛射线（图片来源：中科院高能物理研究所）；右图：右图:美国哈勃望远镜观测的蟹状星云图片（图片来源：NASA） 记者今天（7月3日）从中国科学院获悉，中日合作实验团队近日利用我国西藏羊八井ASgamma实验阵列发现了迄今为止最高能量的宇宙伽玛射线，这些宇宙伽玛射线来自蟹状星云方向，能量高达450 TeV, 比此前国际上正式发表的75TeV的最高能量高出5倍以上。这标志着超高能伽玛射线天文观测进入到100 TeV以上的观测能段。 相关观测结果以 “First Detection of Photons with Energy Beyond 100 TeV from an Astrophysical Source”为题，将于7月下旬作为亮点文章在《物理评论快报》上发表。 蟹状星云是位于金牛座的著名超新星遗迹，1054年我国宋朝的天文学家详细记录了该超新星爆发现象，距离地球6500光年左右，其能量来源是位于其中的高速旋转的脉冲星，即蟹状星云脉冲星。蟹状星云在全电磁波段均具有较高的亮度，因此科学家在从射电、光学、X射线直至伽玛射线的整个电磁波段对其进行了详细的观测和研究。但是，随着光子能量的增加，光子流强越来越低，观测也越来越困难。此前，国际上探测到的最高能量的伽玛射线为75TeV，是德国的HEGRA切伦科夫望远镜实验组观测到的。此次中日合作团队发现了24个100 TeV以上的伽玛射线事例，超出宇宙线背景5.6倍标准偏差，其中能量最高的约为450 TeV。 研究人员认为，这些100TeV以上的高能光子可能是更高能量的电子与周围宇宙微波背景辐射光子发生“逆康普顿散射”的结果，而超高能电子、正电子则在蟹状星云的脉冲星风云中产生。由此可以推断，“蟹状星云”是“银河系内天然的高能粒子加速器”，与目前世界上最大的人工电子加速器（加速电子最高能量0.2TeV）相比，“蟹状星云”的电子加速能力至少高了上万倍。 非光子成份的宇宙线是带电粒子，在银河系磁场中会发生偏转，因此它们的抵达方向并不代表其加速源头的真实位置。伽玛射线光子是电中性的，不受磁场偏转，能直指其产生的源头，而超高能量的伽玛射线又是由高能带电粒子产生的。因此，超高能伽玛射线观测是研究这些极端粒子加速过程及其发生的极端环境的独特途径，是探索极端宇宙的重要探针之一。了解伽玛光子所能达到的最高能量以及这些超高能光子能量的分布，研究产生超高能伽玛射线光子的各种可能天体，有助于揭示宇宙中极端天体的性质，以及其中的极端天体物理过程和规律。 西藏羊八井ASgamma实验位于海拔4300米的西藏羊八井，1990年一期阵列建成并开始运行，后来多次升级改造，在银河系宇宙线的探测研究方面做出了一系列重大发现。2014年，合作组成员在现有65000平方米宇宙线表面探测阵列下面新增加有效面积4200平方米的地下缪子水切伦科夫探测器，利用这种地下缪子水切伦科夫探测器的数据，能够剔除99.92%的宇宙线背景噪声。合作组正是凭借地下水切伦科夫缪子探测器，使得西藏羊八井ASgamma实验成为100TeV以上能区国际上最灵敏的伽玛射线天文台，并因此测得本次100TeV伽玛射线，后续的运行还有望发现更多的超高能伽玛射线源。 作为西藏羊八井ASgamma实验的后续项目，我国正在四川稻城建设大面积高海拔宇宙线观测站LHAASO，其部分设备已经建成并投入观测运行。和ASgamma实验相比，LHAASO的能量范围和灵敏度要高一个数量级以上，将把宇宙线物理和超高能伽马射线天文研究推进到一个新的高度。此外，在空间探测方面，高能所正在牵头申请“探索极端宇宙”EXU国际合作大科学计划，其综合性能比现有的同类空间探测设备将有大幅度的提升，宇宙线物理和高能伽马射线天文也是该计划的主要科学目标。EXU和LHAASO以及国内外的其他空间和高山天文台相结合，将对宇宙极端天体和过程开展全天空、全时域、多波段和多信使的立体观测研究，预期实施之后将取得更多和更重大的成果。 西藏羊八井ASgamma实验由中科院高能物理研究所和日本东京大学宇宙线研究所共同主持。此次重要发现是中日合作双方30年持之以恒，不断创新，不断努力的结果。该项目得到中国国家自然科学基金委员会、科学技术部、中国科学院及日本文部省、学术振兴会（JSPS）等机构的支持。实验在西藏30年的建设与运行得到了西藏自治区各级政府及西藏大学的大力支持。 相关论文信息： First detection of photons with energy beyond 100 TeV from an astrophysical source http://news.sciencenet.cn/htmlnews/2019/7/428207.shtm
美国22个州120多名儿童突然感染神秘病毒 且无药可治 2018-10-17 09:59:28 来源： 北青网 北青网讯 美国疾病控制预防中心（CDC）周二透露，在美国，有127例确诊或疑似罕见脊髓灰质炎病例。 美国疾病控制与预防中心国家免疫和呼吸疾病中心主任南希·梅索尼尔（Nancy Messonnier）博士表示，已在22个州确认了62例急性弛缓性脊髓炎（AFM）。 此前，该机构报告说，在16个州有38例确诊病例。 同时，另外65例AFM正在接受调查，其症状类似于普通感冒，影响的儿童平均年龄为4岁。 卫生官员已确定病情是由病毒感染引起的，但他们无法确定与之相关的病毒是何种病毒。 梅索尼尔博士在一次媒体电话会议上说，我们感到很沮丧，我们无法找出病因。 美国疾病预防控制中心周二透露，22个州的62名儿童被诊断出患有急性弛缓性脊髓炎（AFM），其症状与普通感冒相似。 治疗因具体情况而异。在最严重的情况下，当支持呼吸的肌肉变弱时，可能发生呼吸衰竭。明尼苏达州的四个孩子（如下图）可能是该州最早的确诊病例。 AFM是一种罕见但严重的疾病，会影响神经系统。特别是它攻击称为灰质的脊髓区域，导致身体的肌肉和反射减弱。 症状通常在病毒感染后发生，例如肠病毒或西尼罗河病毒，但通常没有发现明确的原因。 患者开始出现流感样症状，包括打喷嚏和咳嗽。这慢慢变成肌肉无力，眼睛移动困难，然后出现类似脊髓灰质炎的症状，包括面部下垂和吞咽困难。 AFM没有具体的治疗方法，通常建议根据具体情况进行干预。 http://news.ynet.com/2018/10/17/1476261t70.html https://www.cdc.gov/features/acute-flaccid-myelitis/index.html 英国科学家预测太阳活动从2020年左右进入极小期，并可能维持很长一段时间。历史上的蒙德极小期和道尔顿极小期，都伴随出现了极寒天气，并出现了霍乱和鼠疫大流行，很可能与这一时期太阳黑子活动减弱，宇宙射线大幅增强有关。从2009年开始，太阳活动不断减弱，进入现代太阳黑子活动极小期，因此全球近些年不断出现了甲流，MERS, H7N9人感染禽流感，埃博拉，寨卡等新发病毒传染病。随着太阳黑子活动的继续减弱， 全球在未来30～50年内会不断出现各种新发病毒传染病，包括流感大流行。全球公共卫生将面临巨大挑战，必须加强监测预警！ 详细分析见论文 Sunspot Cycle Minima and Pandemics: The Case for Vigilance?（附件） Sunspot Cycle Minima and Pandemics The Case for Vigilance.pdf 以下为太阳活动进入现代极小期的证据： 太阳活动达到近百年来最弱的时期 科学家预测太阳黑子活动即将进入现代极小期 全球特别是美洲地区宇宙射线正在全面加强 冰河世纪到来？！罕见极寒“杀手”气温袭击北美，全美一片恐慌！ https://m.sohu.com/a/215117490_659084/?pvid=000115_3w_a Is a mini ice age on the way? Scientists warn the Sun has 'gone to sleep' and say it could cause temperatures to plunge http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2541599/Is-mini-ice-age-way-Scientists-warn-Sun-gone-sleep-say-cause-temperatures-plunge.html
巴西黄热病毒变异 据新华社里约热内卢5月15日电 （记者赵焱 陈威华）巴西研究人员近日绘制出目前巴西流行的黄热病毒完整基因序列，由此分析出一些基因序列出现了变异。不过研究人员指出，黄热病疫苗对抵御这类变异病毒依然有效。巴西卫生部所属奥斯瓦尔多·克鲁斯基金会的研究人员说，科学界此前还没有记录过这类变异，但黄热病疫苗对抵御这类变异病毒依然有效。参与研究的巴西奥斯瓦尔多·克鲁斯基金会的米尔纳·博纳尔多说：“疫苗肯定还有保护作用，一剂疫苗可以保证到世界任何地方遇到任何种类的黄热病都有效。”从去年12月开始在巴西暴发的黄热病疫情是近几十年来最严重的一次，疫情集中在丛林和农村地区，城市中并未发现疫情。巴西卫生部最近的一次报告说，全国共确诊756例黄热病病例，259人死亡。疫情暴发以来，巴西奥斯瓦尔多·克鲁斯基金会研究人员就开始绘制病毒的基因组序列，首先使用的两份样品来自圣埃斯皮里图州今年2月死于黄热病的猴子。在全面分析后，研究人员发现一些蛋白参与病毒复制，导致病毒基因变异。研究成果刊登在该机构专业医学杂志《奥斯瓦尔多·克鲁斯研究所纪要》上。 http://www.jkb.com.cn/news/overseas/2017/0518/410265.html 中新社圣保罗5月12日电 (记者 莫成雄)当地时间5月12日，巴西卫生部发布新一期通报说，自从去年12月该国爆发黄热病疫情以来至今年5月10日，已确诊756例黄热病病例，其中259人因病死亡。 报告说，巴西卫生部共收到各级卫生部门通报的疑似黄热病病例3175例，已经排除1797例，确诊756例，还有622例待查。目前，巴西全国共有116个市镇发现有黄热病病例。东南部的米纳斯吉拉斯州是黄热病疫情重灾区，已确诊488例。其次是圣埃斯皮里图州，已确诊234例。这两个州死于黄热病的人数是全国最多的。圣保罗州、里约热内卢州和帕拉州也有死亡病例。巴西卫生部表示，目前所有的黄热病确诊病例均发生在农村地区以及部分内陆城镇，特别是森林等植被较密集的地区，大城市还未发现黄热病病例。黄热病是一种由黄热病毒引起的急性传染病，由蚊子叮咬传播，主要在非洲和拉丁美洲热带地区流行。其临床表现包括高热、头痛、黄疸、出血等，严重时可致死亡。黄热病目前尚无特效疗法，但接种疫苗可有效预防感染。(完) http://news.163.com/17/0513/13/CKAQAIG200018AOQ.html 巴西最近的黄热病疫情或与地磁场减弱和宇宙射线增强有关，具体分析见论文： IJCSMB.MS.ID.555636.pdf Weakened geomagnetic field, Cosm ic rays and the Resurgence of Yellow Fever Jiangwen Qu 1 , N.Chandra Wickramasinghe2,3* 1 Department of Infectious Disease Control, Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, China ； 2 Buckingham Centre for Astrobiology, University of Buckingham, UK; 3 Sri Lanka Centre for Astrobiology, University of Ruhuna, Sri Lanka *Corresponding: N. Chandra Wickramasinghe, E-Mail: ncwick@gmail.com , Tel: +44 (0)2920752146 / +44 (0)7778389243 Abstract The yellow fever outbreak in Brazil pose a serious public health threat. Research on the environmental factors underlying yellow fever virus outbreak epidemiology may provide useful insights into the occurrence of yellow fever outbreak. This study suggested that the lowering of the geomagnetic field strength and a sudden increase of cosmic rays in Mexico in 2015 were associated with the emergence of the yellow fever outbreak in Brazil. Potential mechanisms by which weakened geomagnetic field and cosmic ray activity may influence yellow fever outbreak in humans are discussed. Current and future surveillance efforts should be supported to construct a comprehensive early warning system involving weakened geomagnetic field and cosmic ray activity for detecting future yellow fever outbreaks as early as possible. Whist Brazil is still recovering from the Zika virus outbreak, the south-east of this country has recently been struck by the largest outbreak of Yellow Fever (YF) in Latin Americain many decades. The outbreak, which began in 2016, has rapidly and alarmingly spread eastward, reaching the most populated regions of Brazil where vaccine coverage is inadequate, so raising public health concern about high rates of urban transmission and the spread of YF beyond Brazil’s national borders. Other viral diseases that appeared to flare up in South America roughly at the same time include the arboviruses dengue and chikungunya. Although climate change, and poor hygiene are cited as causes for this sudden resurgence of viral disease, it is possible that a more fundamental reason exists, and its discovery could have a profound effect in determining public health strategy. It is generally known that the Earth's magnetic field acts like a giant invisible bubble that shields the planet from the various mutagens such as solar particles and cosmic rays. Severe disruption of the magnetic field barrier would permit the ingress of damaging cosmic ray particles and also charged viral sized particles from outside the Earth. In the absence of other plausible causes is to such externally induced processes that we may be forced to turn in order to explain the unusual patterns of viral incidence we have witnessed in recent years. The role of cosmic rays in causing genetic changes is well known. It is also known at times of low sunspot activity the Earth’s magnetic field is less able to protect the Earth from energetic cosmic rays, including galactic cosmic rays. One particularly strong effect that has recently come to light is the decrease in the Earth’s magnetic field in the Southern Hemisphere, straddling land masses in South America and Africa. The geomagnetic map shown in Fig. 1 was obtained in 2015 at a time when many of the new pandemics of viral disease which we have discussed actually started sweeping across South America and Africa. We think this is unlikely to be a coincidence. Fig. 1 Intensity geomagnetic field map at 2015.0. Red represents areas where the magnetic field is stronger, while blues show areas where it is weaker. New data released by the European Space Agency (ESA) reveals that our geomagnetic field is weakening by around 5% a year, which is nearly ten times faster than previous estimates 1 . Furthermore, the field is weakening faster in some places than others. For example, the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) is a large depression of the Earth's magnetic field strength characterized by values of geomagnetic field intensity around 30% lower than expected for those latitudes and covers a large area in the South Atlantic Ocean and South America. According to the monitoring data of ESA's Swarm satellite, Earth's magnetic poles may be getting ready to flip, and the South Atlantic Anomaly where the field is particularly weak has moved steadily westward and weakened further by about 2% 2 . Previous studies have suggested that the mosquito is a sensitive animal to the magnetic field, and the weakening of the magnetic field can increase the mosquito's reproductive speed and density 3 . YF is mostly transmitted to humans by bites from infected Aedes spp, especially Aedes aegypti. The rapid weakening of Earth's magnetic field in the SAA probable speeds up the rapid increase of mosquitoes and promotes the rapid spread of the yellow fever virus. A sharp change of the magnetic field in this region (which includes South America and Brazil) allows cosmic rays, and charged particles to reach lower into the atmosphere. At present, solar activity is now at its most inactive stage in recent 100 years.The sunspot cycle (No.24) that peaked in 2014 showed the lowest sunspot number recorded since 1906 with many consecutive days of very low sunspot numbers in 2016/17 4 . Cosmic rays reach amaximum intensity when the earth's magnetic field is weakening dramatically and the sun is least active. According to the World Data Center for Cosmic Rays (WDCCR), there was a sudden increase of cosmic rays in Mexico in January 2015 and continued throughout the year 5 . The sudden increase of cosmic ray intensity in Mexico (North/South American region) is probably the cause of the ZIKV and YF outbreak. A new study revealed that solar radiation and cosmic rays are physical mutagens of natural genetic mutation/recombination, and can lead to the emergence of some emerging viruses like pandemic influenza 6 . Zika virus outbreak may have been linked to a systematic increase in the flux of cosmic rays and a general decline of sunspot activity 7 . Phylogenetic analysis of two yellow fever virus (YFV) samples collected during the current Brazilian epidemic revealed the 2016/17 epidemic virus is a new genetic lineage 8 . The weakened magnetic field and enhanced cosmic rays both contributed to the severe YFV outbreak. Thus, we make the bold suggestion that a surveillance of both magnetic field, sunspot numbers and cosmic ray activity may serve as a potential warning of future pandemics. Together with other epidemiological data such information might prove to be a useful factor for strategic disease control planning of YFV as well as other pandemic-causing viruses. References 1.Christopher F,NilsO,StavrosK,NicolasG,LarsT. Recent geomagnetic secular variation from Swarm and ground observatoriesas estimated in the CHAOS ‑ 6geomagneticfieldmodel. Earth, Planets and Space .2016;68:112 2.Pavón-Carrasco, F. Javier; De Santis, Angelo. The South Atlantic Anomaly: The Key for a Possible Geomagnetic Reversal.Frontiers in Earth Science.2016;4:40. 3.Pan,H, Liu,X. Apparent Biological Effect of Strong Magnetic Field on Mosquito Egg Hatching. Bioelectromagnetics,2004;25:84–91 4.Wickramasinghe NC, Steele E, Wainwright M, Tokoro G, Fernando M, Qu J. Sunspot Cycle Minima and Pandemics: The Casefor Vigilance? Astrobiol Outreach 2017 ； 5: 159. 5.World Data Center for Cosmic Rays (WDCCR) http://center.stelab.nagoya-u.ac.jp/WDCCR/allplot1sta.php?st=MEXICO 6.Qu J. Is sunspot activity a factor in influenza pandemics? Rev Med Virol . 2016;26 (5):309-313. 7.Qu J, Wickramasinghe C. Was the Zika virus Outbreak in 2015 Triggered by Cosmic Events?.VirolCurr Res2017;1:102. 8. Myrna C Bonaldo, MarielaMartínez Gómez, Alexandre AC dos SantosFilipe Vieira Santos de Abreu, Anielly Ferreira-de-Brito, RafaellaMoraes de Miranda, Marcia Gonçalves de Castro, Ricardo Lourenço-de-Oliveira. Genome analysis of yellow fever virus of the ongoing outbreak in Brazil reveals polymorphisms. Memórias do InstitutoOswaldo Cruz. 2017;112(6):447-451 Weakened geomagnetic field, Cosmic rays the Resurgence of Yellow Fever https://juniperpublishers.com/ijcsmb/IJCSMB.MS.ID.555636.php
最近，美国NASA赚足了眼球， 事件起源于一段在网站上传的、题为“匿名者：美国航天局将宣布发现智慧外星生命”的视频。视频中称，NASA副局长托马斯 楚比兴曾在美国国会听证会上说，“我们的文明即将在宇宙中发现外星生物的证据”。这立刻就成了大新闻，国外诸多媒体纷纷援引报道。 26日，楚比兴不得不通过社交媒体推特澄清：“与一些报道所说的相反，美国宇航局没有事关地外生命的待定宣布。” 而在对视频发布者的账号进行仔细研究后，《华盛顿邮报》认为，这个账号与著名的黑客组织“匿名者”并无关系。 所以，期待与外星人“第一次亲密接触”的小伙伴们，可能还得继续等下去了。 不过，一直在探索，从不忘“搞事”的NASA，向来都是“手中有料，心中不慌”。这不，近日NASA就在网站上发布视频宣布，十几年一度的太阳活动极小期就快来了，这颗离我们最近的恒星即将发生一些变化。 目前，太阳活动正向着低点而行。2014年，太阳黑子的数量曾经达到了相对的峰值，现在，它们正在向低谷滑落，预计将在2019-2020年达到低点。 在太阳活动极小期期间，太阳的磁场减弱，屏蔽星际宇宙射线的能力也相应减弱，因此到达地球的宇宙射线数量将会增加。而这宇宙射线恰恰是导致2015年南美洲寨卡病毒爆发的真正的原因！ 没发现外星人 但NASA说太阳即将改变 http://news.163.com/17/0630/14/CO6G7PNO000189A3.html 宇宙射线为什么会导致寨卡病毒爆发？请见本人和英国著名宇宙学家 Chandra Wickramasinghe的 最新论文的分析。 Was the Zika virus outbreak in 2015 triggered by cosmic events? Jiangwen Qu 1 and Chandra Wickramasinghe 2,3 * 1Department of Infectious Disease Control, Tianjin Centers for Disease Controland Prevention, China ； 2 BuckinghamCentre for Astrobiology, University of Buckingham, UK; 3 Sri LankaCentre for Astrobiology, University ofRuhuna, Sri Lanka *Corresponding: N. Chandra Wickramasinghe, E-Mail: ncwick@gmail.com , Tel: +44 (0)2920752146 / +44 (0)7778389243 Abstract The Zika virus outbreak in 2015 posed a serious public health threat, particularly in view of its association with congenital abnormalities. We point out that this outbreak may have been linked to a systematic increase in the flux of cosmic rays and a general decline of sunspot activity that has been observed over the period 2010-2017. Future surveillance efforts should in our view take account of such events. Keywords: Zika virus,sunspot activity, cosmic rays The rapid spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas and its association withcongenital abnormalities such as microcephaly and Guillain Barré syndrome hasled the World Health Organization to declare an international public healthemergency on 1 February 2016. ZIKV was first detected in Brazil in May 2015 and subsequently in severalcountries of South and Central America and the Caribbean.The cases of microcephaly in Brazil,potentially associated with ZIKV infection, were identified in November 2015. RTPCR analyses on RNA extracted from Aedes aegypti mosquitoes captured fromJanuary to March 2015 in Mexico showedthe presence of ZIKV thus strongly suggesting that the mosquito vectorwas already carrying the virus at the start of 2015 1 . The ZIKV outbreak of2015 was possibly the largest and deadliest since the disease was firstrecognized in 1947, so it is reasonable tosurmise that some special or unusual factors played a role. ZIKV is classified as an arthropod borne, single strandedRNA virus of the Flaviviridaefamily and genus Flavivirus. Mosquitoes, e speciallythe species Aedes aegypti mosquitoes,can be infected by different Zika viruses in nature. The viruses firstreproduce in the mosquito'sintestines, and then enter other tissues through the blood, ultimately multiplyingin the salivary glands from which they can enter the blood of stream of amosquito-bitten victim. With the eventual control of the 201 5 ZIKV outbreak, this infectious disease can be expected to remain endemicposing a considerable challenge for the foreseeable future. The globalcommunity will be well served if criteria can be discovered that might help predicta possible future onset and hence minimise the ravages caused by similaroutbreaks in the future. V irus mutation and/orrecombination events are likely to be the main possibilities for the emergence ofenhanced ZIKV disease severity in 2015 , so it is necessary todiscover possible factors that may have led to such events. Arecent study published in the Lancet arguedthat exceptional climatic conditions arising from the strong El Niño event in2015 in North Eastern South America might have contributed, albeit in a poorlydefined way, to the rapid dispersal of ZIKV 2 . It is of interest to note in thiscontext that the primary cause of the 2015/16 El Nino event itself mightpossibly have been linked to solar activity 3 . Recent studies have shown that sunspot numbers and cosmic ray activity can play a role in the emergence of influenza pandemics, e xtremes of sunspotactivity to within plus or minus 1 year being identified as an important riskfactor for influenza pandemics 4 . Thesunspot cycle (No.24) that peaked in 2014 showed the lowest sunspot numbersrecorded since 1906 with a steady weakening trend of solar activity from 1980to the present day (Fig.1). These conditions are ideal for facilitating ingressof high energy galactic cosmic rays which could have mutagenic effects. A systematic increase of cosmic rays in thestratosphere has been recorded throughout the period 2015-2017 alongside withthe general decline of solar activity (Fig.2) Whilst a general decline in sunspot numbers can provide an open gateway for mutagenic cosmicrays, coronal ejections of charged particles from the sun that reach thestratosphere, can additionally set up electric fields (eg the Aurorae) thatbring down extraterrestrial viral-sized particles (including virions) to groundlevel 5,6,7 . It is worth noting that both virion-sized particletransport as well as galactic cosmic rays could be localised with respect totheir points of arrival on the Earth’s surface. Thus an emergence of a new recombinant virus could be a highly localisedevent – for example the start of the new ZIKAV appearing in Mexico. Recombination and reassortment of genesin an endemic virus with compatible new virions are known to occur at highly variable frequencies in RNA viruses for example for Influenza A. Recent genetic studies reveal that ZIKAV inthe 2015 outbreak is probably a recombinant virus 8,9,10 , therecombination involving a component that may have undergone a cosmicray-induced mutation in 2015, and/or a virion arriving from an extraterrestrialsource. In conclusion we make the bold suggestionthat a surveillanceof cosmic ray activity on the ground, stratospheric sampling aswell as monitoring coronal discharges may serve asa potential warning of future pandemics. Such measures combined with otherepidemiological and genetic data might prove a useful factor for strategicdisease-control planning in the case of ZIKV as well as of otherpandemic-causing viruses. 论文链接： https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/was-the-zika-virus-outbreak-in-2015-triggered-by-cosmic-events.php?aid=90426 著名宇宙学家 Chandra Wickramasinghe http://www.buckingham.ac.uk/directory/professor-chandra-wickramasinghe/ http://profchandra.org/category/blog/
标签: 宇宙射线
