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Cause-effect chain from 1919 to present and some discussions
热度 1 Greg66 2017-11-2 09:40
Cause-effect chain from 1919 to present and some discussions 关于瑞士奶酪模型 SCM和 24Mode的一点讨论。奶酪模型的第四块奶酪(高层):第一版写的是 decision makers(人)及其 plant or corporatemanagement(管理活动,即动作); fallible decisions(结果);第二版是 process=access+organize+manage( =design+build+operate+maintenance+communicate);第二版后来又改写为 decisions、 process、 culture;第三版的第四奶酪写为 organizational factors。三个版本的第四模块,有人、有动作、也有结果(三种东西都有)。 24Model的各个模块(也可叫奶酪)都是动作的结果(只是一种东西):文化的水平、体系的质量、能力的大小、动作与物态的正确性。把 这几个东西都叫做“结果”也不影响他们的“行为”性质,原因是他们的作用仍然是行为 。 24Model十分明确, Reason在那个时代,对组织因素(就叫第四模块吧)是不能也没有明确具体内容的,他也一直在变化,最后只给了个含混的归纳叫做组织因素 organizational factors,具体内容说不清,说不清就难改善。上面提到, 24Model的各个模块都变成了一个东西(动作的结果),这个东西可以被评价,找到缺点,这就是 24Model把四个模块都理解为“动作的结果”的方便之处。今天这个时代,安全文化和管理体系,大家都已经知道它们是个啥了(尽管还有些局部分歧),不会像 Reason那时那么含混和在模型中常常变化了, Reason自己、 HFACS、 Salmon等对这个模块的写法都在变化,彼此不一致、不确定。 另一点重要的是,就某一个瞬时状态来说, act及其他原因模块的作用暂停、停留在这个时刻,它们之间的作用线相当于不存在,作用结果(各个模块都是作用结果)相对稳定(当然动作和物态还会对外界起作用,但其作用的正确性、方向或者格局已经被能力 capability决定了),此时 24Model上的各个原因模块间就是线性关系;就作用过程来说, act及其原因模块都在连续作用着,它们的作用线实际存在,必须画出,此时 24Model就不是线性的,而是按照圆形图循环着。所以,表格下面的两个图,一个是 24Mo del的 动态图(圆形,非线性) ,一个是 24Model的 静态图(链条形,线性) 。 关键词: 奶酪模型, 24Model ,线性,非线性 从线性到非线性:24Model可以表达其线性、也可以表达其非线性性质,看画法的不同了。 参考: (1) 事故预防科学中的几个矛盾而又统一的问题 ;(2) 24Model第五版(多图) 2017-10-31
个人分类: 1|3594 次阅读|4 个评论
Real food chain
augustwang 2013-5-16 13:44
It is animals and plants which lived in or near water whose remains are most likely to be preserved, for one of the necessary conditions of preservation is quick burial, and it is only in the seas and rivers, and sometimes lakes, where mud and silt have been continuously deposited, that bodies and the like can be rapidly covered over and preserved. But even in the most favorable circumstances only a small fraction of the creatures that die are preserved in this way before decay sets n or, even more likely, before scavengers eat them. After all, all creatures live by feeding on something else, whether it be plant or animals, dead or alive, and it is only by chance that such a fate is avoided. 因为一切生物都是靠吃别的生命来活命的,不管这种东西是植物还是动物,死的还是活的,因此,生物偶尔才能避免被吃掉的命运。
个人分类: 杂记|2123 次阅读|0 个评论
three kinds of graph
justinzhao 2013-1-27 09:00
There are three kinds of probabilistic graph, namely (1) directed graph(Bayesian network); (2) undirected graph(Markov network); (3) hybrid graph(Chain graph). We can represent the joint distribution over a Bayesian network by chain rule, and represent a joint distribution over a Markov network as products of potentials. Then the graph is an I-map of the distribution, and we can use d-separation principles to find conditionally independent variables in the joint distribution. HMM is a typical directed graph and RBM(Restricted Boltzmann Machine) is a typical undirected graphical model. However, in real applications, sometimes we would make use of hybrid graph models. Taking CRF(Conditional Random Field) as an example. For depth estimation in stereo computer vision, CRF is a competing model, which is a hybrid model, with undirected links among depth values and directed links between depth values and features. So CRF in this case is named as Chain graph. How to represent this hybrid graph using probabilities? Usually, we use products of CRF distributions as its joint probability distribution. Then how can we determine whether two groups of variable are conditional independent or not? In the chain graph, we will use c-separation principles. By the way, chain graph is a generalization of directed graph and undirected graph. Therefore, probability representation and independence determination in Bayesian Network and Markov Network are specific cases to those in Chain Graph.
个人分类: 读书日记|2725 次阅读|0 个评论
[转载]Science Blog 2012年05月21日 20:12 (星期一)
xupeiyang 2012-5-21 20:42
http://scienceblog.com/ Scientists document fragile land-sea ecological chain Technology convergence may widen the digital divide Sound Waves as Effective as Brain Surgery at Treating Essential Tremor How flowers do it Breast Cancer Effectively Treated with Chemical Found in Celery Impact of MRSA nasal colonization on surgical site infections after gastrointestinal surgery Drug found for parasite that is major cause of death worldwide Experimental bariatric surgery controls blood sugar in rats with diabetes Good news for nanomedicine: Quantum dots appear safe in pioneering study on primates
个人分类: 科学博客|1689 次阅读|0 个评论

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