Prediction of H7N9 epidemic in China Zhang Zhaojie, Xia Yao, Lu Yi, Yang Jingchao, Zhang Luwen, Su Hui, Lin Lili, Wang Guoling, Wang Tongmei, Lin Shao, Guo Zhongmin and Lu Jiaha Keywords H7N9; prediction; bird migration; passive response pattern Abstract Background In March 2013, human cases of infection with a novel A (H7N9) influenza virus emerged in China. The epidemic spread quickly and as of 6 May 2013, there were 129 confirmed cases. The purpose of this study was to analyze the epidemiology of the confirmed cases, determine the impacts of bird migration and temperature changes on the H7N9 epidemic, predict the future trends of the epidemic, explore the response patterns of the government and propose preventive suggestions. Methods The geographic, temporal and population distribution of all cases reported up to 6 May 2013 were described from available records. Risk assessment standard was established by analysing the temperature and relative humidity records during the period of extensive outbreak in three epidemic regions in eastern China, including Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces. Risk assessment maps were created by combining the bird migration routes in eastern China with the monthly average temperatures from May 1993 to December 2012 nationwide. Results Among the confirmed cases, there were more men than women, and 50.4% were elderly adults (age 61 years). The major demographic groups were retirees and farmers. The temperature on the days of disease onset was concentrated in the range of 9°C–19°C; we defined 9°C–19°C as the high-risk temperature range, 0°C–9°C or 19°C–25°C as medium risk and 0°C or 25°C as low risk. The relative humidity on the days of disease onset ranged widely from 25% to 99%, but did not correlate with the incidence of infection. Based on the temperature analysis and the eastern bird migration routes, we predicted that after May, the high-risk region would move to the northeast and inland, while after September, it would move back to north China. Conclusions Temperature and bird migration strongly influence the spread of the H7N9 virus. In order to control the H7N9 epidemic effectively, Chinese authorities should strengthen the surveillance of migrating birds, increase poultry and environmental sampling, improve live poultry selling and husbandry patterns and move from a “passive response pattern” to an “active response pattern” in focused preventive measures.
Prediction of H7N9 Epidemic in China Abstract Background: In March 2013, human cases of infection with a novel A (H7N9) influenza virus emerged in China. The epidemic spread quickly and as of 6 May 2013, there were 129 confirmed cases. The purpose of this study is to analyse the epidemiology of the confirmed cases, determine the impacts of bird migration and temperature changes on the H7N9 epidemic, predict the future trends of the epidemic, explore the response patterns of the government, and propose preventive suggestions. Methods: The geographic, temporal, and population distribution of all cases reported up to 6 May 2013 was described from available records. The risk assessment standard was established by analysing the temperature and relative humidity records during the period of extensive outbreak in 3 epidemic regions in eastern China, including Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu provinces. The risk assessment maps were created by combining the bird migration routes in eastern China with the monthly average temperatures from May 1993 to December 2012 nationwide. Results: Among the confirmed cases, there were more men than women, and 50.4% were elderly adults (aged 61 years). The major demographic groups were retirees and farmers. The temperature on the days of disease onset were concentrated in the range of 9°C to 19°C; we defined 9–19°C as the high-risk temperature range, 0–9°C or 19–25°C as medium-risk, and 0°C or 25°C as low-risk. The relative humidity on the days of disease onset ranged widely from 25% to 99%, but did not correlate with incidence of the infection. Based on the temperature analysis and the eastern bird migration routes, we predicted that after May, the high-risk region would move to the northeast and inland, while after September, it would move back to north China. Conclusions: Temperature and bird migration strongly influence the spread of the H7N9 virus. In order to control the H7N9 epidemic effectively, Chinese authorities should strengthen the surveillance of migrating birds, increase poultry and environmental sampling, improve live poultry selling and husbandry patterns, and move from a ‘ passive response pattern ’ to an ‘ active response pattern ’ in focused preventive measures. 这篇文章即将刊登在中华医学英文版上。 http://www.cmj.org/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?edit_id=20131119033658001journal_id=jmcpfile_no=201307080000008flag=2
为了加强国际间学术交流，广东省疾控中心邀请了美国佛罗里达大学公共卫生学院环境与全球健康系主任Gregory C. Gray教授于2013年10月10日下午在中心作了题为“One Health：A Promising Approach to Difficult Public Health Problems”的学术讲座。 广东省疾控中心主任张永慧、副主任杨杏芬，广东省公共卫生研究院副院长何翔和省疾控中心的研究人员80余人等参加了本次讲座，中山大学公共卫生学院陆家海教授也应邀参加。 Gray教授从事传染病流行病学研究工作长达25年，曾在包括美国军队流行病学委员会、美国传染病协会、美国国立卫生研究所（NIH）等在内的多个国家级专家咨询委员会工作，主要研究方向为包括甲型流感在内的新发人兽共患病的预防和控制研究。他在关于“One Health”的专题讲座中指出One Health是改善人类、动物和环境健康各方面的一个跨学科协作和交流的全球拓展战略，主要内容是要求公共卫生专业人员、临床医学和动物医学研究者之间要有更多的交流与合作，从而更好地应对和解决新发传染病及环境变化等重要问题。他引用众多实例阐述在公共卫生领域中研究人兽共患疾病的重要性和迫切性，并针对这一情况阐述了“One Health”理念的重要性。作为发起人，Gray教授目前在全球设立了首个该领域的PhD培养项目，也在东欧指导建立了NIH资助的“One Health”中心，并在近期与蒙古国研究者联合申请NIH资助的One Health人兽共患病博士后培训项目。讲座的最后，Gray教授还为大家介绍了佛罗里达大学的概况、留学生情况、研究设施和科研成果等整体情况。 本次讲座不仅增长了中心科研人员的见闻和拓宽了其视野，也为我中心与佛罗里达大学开展实质性交流与合作奠定了基础。 http://www.cdcp.org.cn/viewArticle.do?method=viewArticleid=2c90488441c9a68d0141cb8463760010
2013 年 10 月 8 日，中山大学公共卫生学院与热带病防治研究教育部重点实验室联合举办了 “One Health ： A New Professional Imperative” 学术讲座，邀请了美国佛罗里达大学公共卫生学院环境与全球健康系主任 Gray 教授进行学术报告。公共卫生学院郝元涛院长主持了本次讲座，陆家海教授是这次报告的邀请者。和任泽舫教授莅临现场进行了交流。本次学术报告内容充实前沿， Gray 教授通过多个生动的研究实例引入了“ One Health ”的理念。现今目前，随着人类健康面临种种挑战，、动物健康、食品安全和食品环境健康的迅速流通等问题，使我们人类面临着前所未有的复杂的诸如人畜兽共患病和食品安全等问题。“ One Health ”是一门新兴学科，主要致力于协调人类医学、兽医兽医学和环境科学等领域的专家共同合合作作，从而更好地解决新发传染病和人、动物和环境之间面临的改变等重要问题，达到人、动物和环境和谐相处，共同健康的目的。交流过程轻松活跃，同学们就所思所惑与 Gray 教授进行了愉快的讨论。
标签: 陆家海
