华尔街物理：不可预测性预测简史 James Owen Weatherall - The Physics of Wall Street: A Brief History of Predicting the Unpredictable Published: 2013-01-02 | ISBN: 0547317271 | 304 pa After the economic meltdown of 2008, Warren Buffett famously warned, “beware of geeks bearing formulas.” But as James Weatherall demonstrates, not all geeks are created equal. While many of the mathematicians and software engineers on Wall Street failed when their abstractions turned ugly in practice, a special breed of physicists has a much deeper history of revolutionizing finance. Taking us from fin-de-siècle Paris to Rat Pack-era Las Vegas, from wartime government labs to Yippie communes on the Pacific coast, Weatherall shows how physicists successfully brought their science to bear on some of the thorniest problems in economics, from options pricing to bubbles. The crisis was partly a failure of mathematical modeling. But even more, it was a failure of some very sophisticated financial institutions to think like physicists. Models—whether in science or finance—have limitations; they break down under certain conditions. And in 2008, sophisticated models fell into the hands of people who didn’t understand their purpose, and didn’t care. It was a catastrophic misuse of science. The solution, however, is not to give up on models; it's to make them better. Weatherall reveals the people and ideas on the cusp of a new era in finance. We see a geophysicist use a model designed for earthquakes to predict a massive stock market crash. We discover a physicist-run hedge fund that earned 2,478.6% over the course of the 1990s. And we see how an obscure idea from quantum theory might soon be used to create a far more accurate Consumer Price Index. Both persuasive and accessible, The Physics of Wall Street is riveting history that will change how we think about our economic future.
美国的 Wired 杂志最近发表一篇文章“ Raging Bulls: How Wall Street Got Addicted to Light-Speed Trading ”，讲述华尔街掉进钱眼里的交易商们如何沉迷于光速交易，从而一方面从现有光速受限的通信技术中充分挖潜，最大限度地提高信息的传输速度，另一方面将目光投向“超光速”的中微子，期待超光速通信。 文章说，在每秒进行成百上千甚至成千上万次交易的高频交易（ high-frequency trading ）中，交易商利用转瞬即逝的微小股票价格差异赚钱，这种差异由计算机算法识别，并由自动交易程序执行。随着交易频次的提高，信息的传输和处理速度也必须提高。华尔街已到了这样一个节骨眼上 —— 随着交易频率越来越高，闪电般的损失接踵而至，得失只在一瞬间，可以说，在高频交易中，毫秒级的信息时延都很要命！所以，华尔街的交易商要想挣钱、挣大钱，只有仰仗高速大容量通信技术传输信息、快速计算机进行计算以及高明数据分析师设计算法。通信速度决定了交易商的命运！ 众所周知，目前的通信技术，无论是有线通信（如光纤通信）还是无线通信，都以光速传递信息，这已是爱因斯坦狭义相对论框死的极限速度。华尔街的交易商们也还懂得另一个常识：两点之间直线距离最短，在速度一定的情况下，让信息沿直线传输，耗时最短，这相当于提高了两点之间的信息传递速度。今天，地球上几乎任何两个大城市间都有光纤光缆相连，但这些光纤光缆都不是按交易商们的要求沿直线铺设的，它们像高速公路那样蜿蜒曲折。华尔街的交易商们不能容忍这些拐弯抹角的信息拖延，决定截弯取直，自建直线传输的通信线路。例如， McKay Brothers 公司（其竞争对手 Tradeworx 随后也很快跟上）建立了一连串的无线电发射塔，用来在纽约的证券交易所和芝加哥的期货市场之间传递金融信息，这些无线电发射塔沿接近一个理想的大圆弧路径（地球是圆的）传输信息，相对于连接这两个城市的光纤光缆来说，一个来回可节省大约 5 毫秒时间。 5 毫秒， 5/1000 秒，远低于眨眼工夫（ 0.2 ～ 0.4 秒），但它就是金钱，就是生命！ 在追求市场跳动回报的过程中，发送一个超光速信号可以提供压倒性的优势：一种事后的交易方式，金融上相当于对一场已完成的赛马进行投注。所以，突破现有光速受限通信技术的“超光速”通信是华尔街交易商们梦寐以求的。由此可以想见， 2011 年物理学家发布“中微子超光速”消息后，最开心的可能是华尔街的交易商，而当这条消息时隔 6 个月又被收回后，最沮丧的也是华尔街的交易商。不过，华尔街的交易商对中微子并没有绝望。还是基于两点之间直线距离最短，华尔街的交易商依然热爱中微子，因为中微子可以直透地球，所以利用中微子束并对其进行调制可以在地球上任意两点（例如从南极到北极）进行直线通信，无需昂贵而复杂的高空卫星或 / 和地面微波站，使通信不仅更快速而且更经济。尽管这还是一项停留在物理层面的非常不靠谱的“技术”，但华尔街依然郑重决定：购买中微子！ 科技进步要靠需求推动或牵引。在这个日益功利化的世界，好奇心驱动的基础研究日趋寒碜萎缩，向有钱又想挣钱、挣大钱、挣轻松钱、持续不断地挣钱的所谓掉进钱眼里的人忽悠点需求出来，不失为一条活命乃至飞黄腾达之路。科学家要放下清高，不要鄙视铜板，更不要鄙视掉进铜板眼里的人，他们是推动科技进步的一支重要力量。 References 1. JERRY ADLER, “ Raging Bulls: How Wall Street Got Addicted to Light-Speed Trading ”, wired, 2012-08-03. 2. Charles Day, Buy neutrinos! Physics Today, 2012-08-30. McKay Brothers uses 20 microwave towers — this one is 215 feet tall — to relay messages between market data centers in New Jersey and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in just 4.5 milliseconds. Photo: ...
【本博注】一个从生物学常识就能判断出来，明显违背自然规律，反科学，反人类，反自然，反社会的转基因技术，何以在中国失控？种植转基因作物需要专门的庇护场所，本身就说明这个技术是不安全的；一方面往天然食品里转基因，一方面又加强转基因食品的检测，将其与有害食品并列，本身就说明这类食品是不放心的垃圾食品；一方面自己鼓动别人吃转基因食品，一方面自己偷偷吃特供的有机食品，这不正说明了转基因科学家从不相信自己生产的食品是安全的。天下最荒唐的事情莫过于发一张纸就说明转基因是安全的，或者干脆闭着眼睛说转基因是安全的，比天然食品还安全。 然而，无情的事实是，转基因利益集团及其豢养的科学家的谎言被一次次戳破。这不，美国华尔街又传来对转基因的愤怒喊打声。 对于这些关系每一个人生命安全的大事，中国主流媒体为什么不报道呢？ 占领华尔街运动示威者反对转基因食品游行集会 99%的人反对转基因食品 视频地址 http://bbs.mshw.org/forum.php?mod=viewthreadtid=26113fromuid=2891 99-percentersprotest genetically modified foods 99%的人反对转基因食品 US 99-Percenters have taken to the streets in New York to demand moregovernment regulations on food and water,Press TV reports. Press TV报道：占领运动示威者要求政府提供更多的食品和水。 Protesters criticized companies that alter the genetic making of foods such asMonsanto. 抗议者批评那些改变食物遗传性状的公司，如孟山都。 Monsanto is a corporate giant that makes genetically modified seeds for foodslike corn and soybeans, making them more able to survive pesticides. 孟山都是一个为了销售具有相应抗性的农药而生产如转基因玉米和转基因大豆种子的食品公司巨头. “They have done four-generation studies on hamsters, and after eating GMOs forfour generations, all the hamsters go sterile, their teeth grow out of theirjaws and their jaws lock shut,” a protester said, adding that other studies hadpointed to liver and other organ failures. 一名抗议者说：“他们已经在无菌条件下做了四代用转基因食品喂养仓鼠的实验，他们的牙齿生长出他们的颌骨，而且颌骨锁定关闭。 Among genetically modified foods protesters were warned to avoid are Tofu andany of the many foods containing corn syrup or high fructose corn syrup. 抗议者提醒人们应避免食用豆腐和许多含有高果糖、玉米糖浆的食品，这些都是转基因食品。 Some protesters were also spreading word about the privatization of thecountry’s water supply. 一些示威者还散发有关反对国家的供水系统私有化的材料。 “If people knew nationally, that our water was being stolen by three topcompanies, Nestle, Coke, and Pepsi, owning 70 percent of the world’s water, Ithink they would be upset. But I just don’t think they understand that.” 如果人们知道我们国家的水被雀巢、可口可乐、百事可乐这三个顶级公司偷走，他们拥有世界水资源的70%。那么他们将被消灭。但是我想他们现在还不知道。 The Occupy movement owes its inspiration to the Occupy Wall Street (OWS) protests,which began when a group of demonstrators gathered in New York's financialdistrict on September 17, 2011 to protest against the excessive influence ofbig corporations on the US policies and the high-level corruption in thecountry. 这个占领运动灵感来源于从2011年9月17日开始在纽约金融区发起的那场声势浩大旨在抗议大企业严重影响美国政府政策和严重的国内腐败现象的占领华尔街运动(OWS)。 【感谢翻译此文的无名网友。】
Columbia University recently announced plans to offer a course next semester in which students can study and participate in the movement. The class will be offered through the anthropology department and will be taught by Dr. Hannah Appel, a veteran of the movement. It is called “Occupy the Field: Global Finance, Inequality, Social Movement.” Upperclassmen and graduate students will be able to take the class. “Class requirements will be divided between seminar at Columbia and fieldwork in and around the Occupy movement,” according to the class syllabus. “In addition to scheduled seminar , this class will meet off-campus several times, and students will be expected to be involved in ongoing OWS projects outside of class, to be developed in close conversation with the instructor.” Could this type of class be dangerous for the students who will be involved in it? Appel thinks not. “As a regular participant in the Occupy movement… I can say with absolute certainty that there is no foreseeable risk in teaching this as a field-based class,” she said. She also encourages students not to break the law when they are conducting their fieldwork though, because then there could be problems http://www.eduinreview.com/blog/2012/01/columbia-university-offers-course-allowing-students-to-participate-in-occupy-wall-street/
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