当大家还在讨论新型冠状病毒肺炎的时候，今天我必须向大家谈的是，这种传染病控制住一点问题没有，但是有一个问题，那就是这种传染病大概率不会当年就消失，要警惕在今后几年内持续流行！根据我们的太空射线学说，从中长期看， 地球村已经进入了新发病毒高发期和频发期 ，未来30年左右会不断出现各种新发病毒传染病！理由是，地磁场减弱，太阳活动减弱，宇宙射线大幅增强！下一次传染病大流行大概率是流感大流行！出现地点大概率会是以墨西哥为中心的美洲地区和中国大陆周围，时间点是近一两年得事情！当这些传染病大规模流行的时候，请大家不要问我们的地球村怎么了？因为这就是自然规律，天人合一的规律！这是我们敢于发出预测预警的底气！防控新发病毒性传染病时刻不能松懈！ 随着地磁场和太阳活动的减弱，宇宙射线活动在不断增强，再加上太平洋上有可能再次出现强厄尔尼诺现象、候鸟迁徙季的到来以及人间季节性流感活动的异常增强，全球正面临一次新的流感大流行。美国季节性流感传播异常将增加新型流感大流行的出现的概率！2020年3-5月份是高风险期！ 预则立，不预则废！全球公共卫生体系将面临巨大挑战！ https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm#ILIActivityMap Are we approaching a new influenza pandemic? N. Chandra Wickramasinghe , 1,2,3 * Jiangwen Qu 4 , 1 Department of Infectious Disease Control, Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, China 2 Buckingham Centre for Astrobiology, University of Buckingham, UK; 3 Sri Lanka Centre for Astrobiology, University of Ruhuna, Sri Lanka; 4 General Sir John Kotelawala Defence University, Sri Lanka 4 Department of Infectious Disease Control, Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, China Contributed equally：共同第一作者 *Corresponding: N. Chandra Wickramasinghe, E-Mail: ncwick@gmail.com , Tel/Fax number: +44 (0)2920752146 / +44 (0)7778389243 Abstract Over the past several months influenza activity has continued to increase in the temperate zones of the northern hemisphere and has led to a concern over global health and the impending prospect of another major pandemic. Based on a range of available evidence we argue that the current influenza situation might be related to the on-going La Niña phenomenon accompanied by increased precipitation patterns in the Pacific. The four most recent human influenza pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009) were preceded by La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific, and almost all influenza pandemics in history fall within ± 1 year of sunspot extrema. Sunspot activity will reach its minimum in 2019. Therefore, a new influenza pandemic may well be imminent now, one hundred years after the 1918-1919 pandemic. It will therefore be prudent and timely to strengthen worldwide surveillance strategies and to prepare ourselves for a future emergency. Influenza activity has continued to increase in the temperate zones of the northern hemisphere from the end of 2017 to the beginning of 2018 and has led to a significant concern over global health. Some countries have reported levels of hospitalization and ICU admissions reaching or exceeding the peak levels associated with previous influenza seasons. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), flu activity is now widespread throughout most of the United States, and the number of states experiencing exceptionally “high” influenza activity increased from 32 states (plus New York City and Puerto Rico) to 39 states (plus New York City and Puerto Rico). It is of interest to explore some of the mechanisms that might be responsible for the sudden surge of influenza cases. There are indications to suggest that Influenza activitytends to be significantly higher during times when La Niña conditions prevail . If so it might be argued that the current influenza situation might be related to the on-going La Niña (opposite of El Niño) phenomenon in the Pacific which could well serve as a driver of new viral pandemics. The six pandemics on record since 1889 all emerged in the Northern Hemisphere following the “normal” flu season, suggesting that some other forces may predictably constrain pandemic risk . Furthermore, a recent study has shown that the four most recent human influenza pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968, and 2009) were preceded by La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific . Some extreme climatic events such as extremely cold weather caused by La Niña conditions can alter the migration route, stopover time, fitness, and interspecies mixing of migratory birds and arguably affect their intermingling with domestic animals, within the constraints of a purely Earth-bound theory of biological evolution and influenza modelling . In a recent review we have shown, however, that a purely Earth-bound theory of biology may be deeply flawed . Perhaps, more importantly, atmospheric and indeed space weather conditions could promote or enhance the role of extraterrestrial influences, including the arrival of external virions . In particular the role of cosmic rays could be important in providing new pathways for the arrival of new virions, as well as the modification of already circulating viruses . The connection between sunspot activity and certain aspects of global climate is in general well attested in the literature. At a minor level a correlation it has been found that fluctuations of solar cycle length and mean atmospheric temperature are possibly linked. A more significant effect is found in the Manunder minimum when during an exceptionally cold interlude (mini-ice age) between 1645-1715 there was very little sunspot activity, It is possibly no coincidence that almost all influenza pandemics in history fall within ± 1 year of sunspot extrema (maxima and minima) , and we should note with a sense of caution that sunspot activity is indeed predicted to reach a record low minimum in 2019 . According to the record of Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations of World Data Center, sunspot activity will reach its low minimum in 2019 (Figure 1). Figure 1 Predictions of the monthly smoothed Sunspot Number Daily sunspot number (yellow), monthly mean sunspot number (blue), smoothed monthly sunspot number (red) for the last 13 years and 12-month ahead predictions of the monthly smoothed sunspot number: SC (red dots) : prediction method based on an interpolation of Waldmeier's standard curves; It is only based on the sunspot number series. CM (red dashes) : method (from K. Denkmayr and P. Cugnon) combining a regression technique applied to the sunspot number series with the aa geomagnetic index used as a precursor (improved predictions during the minimum phase between solar cycles). New data released by the European Space Agency (ESA) further reveals that the strength of the geomagnetic field is systematically weakening by around 5% every ten years, which is nearly ten times faster than previous estimates . Furthermore, it is weakening faster in some places more than in others. For example, the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) is a large depression of the Earth’s magnetic field intensity characterized by values of geomagnetic field intensity around 30% lower than that expected for those latitudes, and this covers a large area in the South Atlantic Ocean and South America. According to Swarm satellite monitoring results, SAA has moved steadily westward and weakened further by about 2%. Cosmic rays, particularly galactic cosmic rays, can reach their maximum intensity when the earth's magnetic field is declining dramatically and when the sun is least active. Low solar activity can also give rise to exceptionally cold winters in northern Europe and the United States . The superposition of all these conditions and circumstances that are now well attested can promote epidemics involving a wide range of influenza subtypes. Influenza pandemics can emerge via genomic re-assortment between circulating human and animal strains and also almost certainly with the introduction of extrinsic viral components . Abnormal climate change patterns caused by the combination of a deep solar minimum and La Niña conditions can bring divergent influenza subtypes together in some parts of the world. In addition to the possibility of externally introduced virions this could facilitate the re-assortment of circulating influenza virions through simultaneous multiple infection of individual hosts, thus resulting in the emergence of an antigenically novel strain capable of causing a devastating worldwide pandemic. In view of the geographic localization of the environmental effects we have discussed the area around South America is very likely to be a possible starting point of the next influenza pandemic. In summary, there are powerful indicators to suggest that a new influenza pandemic is fast approaching, almost 100 years after the devastating historic pandemic of 1918/1919. It will thus be prudent and timely to strengthen worldwide vigilance and surveillance strategies including space weather and stratospheric monitoring and to prepare ourselves for a future emergency. References 1.ViboudC,PakdamanK,BoëllePY,et al.Association of influenza epidemics with global climate variability . Eur J Epidemiol ,2004,19(11):1055-1059. 2. FlahaultA,ViboudC,PakdamanK,et al.Association of influenza epidemics in France and the USA with global climate variability .Intl Congress Series, 2004,1263(2004):73-77 3. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php 4.Spencer J. Fox , Joel C. Miller, et al. Seasonality in risk of pandemic influenza emergence . PLoS Comput Biol. 201713(10):e1005749; 5.ShamanJ,LipsitchM.The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–pandemic Influenza connection: Coincident or causal? . PNAS ,2013,110(suppl 1):3689-3691. 6. Steele, E.J. et al., Cause of Cambrian Explosion - Terrestrial or Cosmic?, Progress in Biophysics and Molecular Biology. 2018 136:3-23. 7.Hoyle, F. and Wickramasinghe, N.C., Influenza – Evidence against contagion, Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, 1990,83(4), 58 8.Qu J. (2016) Is sunspot activity a factor in influenza pandemics? . Rev Med Virol. 2016;309-313. 9. Qu et al., (2016) Sunspot Activity, Influenza and Ebola Outbreak Connection , Astrobiol Outreach, 4:2 10.Ineson S, Scaife AA, Knight JR, et al. Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere . Nature Geoscience, 2011,4:753-757. 11.ChristopherF, NilsO, StavrosK, NicolasG, LarsT. Recent geomagnetic secular variation from Swarm and ground observatories as estimated in the CHAOS ‑ 6 geomagnetic field model. Earth, Planets and Space.2016;68:112. 流感大流行预警论文： https://www.hilarispublisher.com/open-access/are-we-approaching-a-new-influenza-pandemic.pdf 原标题：世界动物卫生组织：高致病性H5N8禽流感在沙特爆发 4日，沙特首都利雅得的工人穿着防护服，在农场中搬运箱子。 世界动物卫生组织（OIE）本周宣布，一种传染性极强的H5N8亚型禽流感在沙特阿拉伯爆发。 据路透社2月5日报道，世界动物卫生组织援引沙特环境、水资源和农业部的消息称，禽流感爆发于沙特中部的苏德尔地区，已导致超过2.2万只鸟类死亡，另有38.5万只禽类被扑杀。这是自2018年7月以来沙特首次爆发H5N8病毒。 沙特阿拉伯环境、水和农业部2月4日发表声明说，沙特一处家禽饲养场发现高致病性H5N8型禽流感疫情，目前该饲养场近40万只禽鸟已被扑杀。 沙特环境、水和农业部发言人阿卜杜拉·哈伊勒说，应急小组在现场采取紧急措施后，疫情得到控制。 世界动物卫生组织已收到沙特环境、水资源和农业部的通报。通报说，该疫情发生在首都利雅得附近的苏德尔地区，导致超过2.2万只禽鸟死亡，该饲养场中的其余38.53万只禽鸟已全部被扑杀。这是自2018年7月以来沙特首次暴发H5N8型禽流感疫情。 哈伊勒呼吁家禽养殖户提高警惕，在处理禽类时采取适当的预防措施，并告诫民众不要猎杀候鸟或野鸟。 H5N8型禽流感病毒是一种禽类之间的高度传染性病毒。自2014年全球首次发现H5N8型禽流感病毒以来，尚未发现人感染这种病毒的病例。 责任编辑：郑亚鹏 https://news.sina.com.cn/w/2020-02-07/doc-iimxyqvz0931992.shtml 原标题：新疆湖南连发5起禽流感疫情，重大动物疫情形势仍严峻 2月1日，农业农村部新闻办公室官网发布， 湖南省邵阳市双清区发生一起家禽H5N1亚型高致病性禽流感疫情 。 根据中国动物疫病预防控制中心报告，经国家禽流感参考实验室确诊，邵阳市双清区某养殖户饲养的肉鸡发生H5N1亚型高致病性禽流感疫情。养殖户存栏肉鸡7850只，发病死亡4500只。 疫情发生后，当地按照有关预案和防治技术规范要求切实做好疫情处置工作，已扑杀家禽17828只，全部病死和扑杀家禽均已无害化处理。 连发5起亚型高致病性禽流感疫情 这已经是2020年以来，国家禽流感参考实验室确诊的第5起亚型高致病性禽流感疫情。 在此之前，新疆从1月8日起，1月16日、20日、21日，接连发生4起当地野生天鹅发生H5N6亚型高致病性禽流感疫情。 禽流感疫情的暴发，尤其是波及到家禽，再加上一湖之隔的湖北爆发新型肺炎疫情可能与野生动物有关，多个省份为有效防范疫情扩散，发布紧急通知，全面禁止市场销售活禽。 因此，这起家禽H5N1亚型高致病性禽流感疫情，一下子引发了舆论的关注。 关于禽流感疫情，湖南省农业农村厅已经进行了部署。 1月30日，湖南省农业农村厅召开全省重大动物疫病防控工作视频会议。会议指出，冬春季节是动物疫病高发季节。入冬以来，湖南省连续出现低温阴雨等恶劣天气，有利于病原微生物的繁殖生长，高致病性禽流感、口蹄疫、非洲猪瘟等重大动物疫情形势仍然严峻。春节过后，动物补栏调运频繁，候鸟向北迁徙，增加了疫病传入风险。部分去年秋季防疫畜禽已经超过有效保护期，动物抗病力整体下降，疫病发生风险增加。 湖南省防治重大动物疫病指挥部副指挥长、省农业农村厅党组书记、厅长袁延文强调，各级各部门要加快补齐重大动物疫情防控短板，切实增强重大动物疫情防控能力。并且提出重点做好包括“落实禽流感等重大动物疫病强制免疫措施”在内的6方面工作。 袁延文要求，做好高致病性禽流感等重大动物疫病防控工作是当前农业农村部门一项突出的重点工作，各级农业农村部门要切实加强组织领导，切实落实防控责任，进一步完善应急预案，做好防疫物资准备。 在此次关闭活禽交易之前，国内不少地方也一直存在活禽销售的行为。这背后既有顶层设计较为笼统，各地自行制定的管理办法存在差异，也有受传统习俗、消费观念等影响，不少消费者仍然习惯购买当场宰杀的活禽。 因此，尽管各地的活禽交易管理办法已出台多年，但“地下鸡市”一直存在。当然，集饲养、宰杀、销售为一体的活禽供应链发展仍不够成熟。 野生动物疫情将保持上升态势 第一财经记者掌握的信息，其实早在去年底，多方专家就进行了研判，结论是“2020年全国野生动物疫情将继续保持上升态势。” 国家林草局监测总站的消息称，2019年12月5~6日，国家林草局动植物司和野生动物疫源疫病监测总站，在海南省琼海市组织召开了2019年重点野生动物疫病主动预警工作总结会暨2020年野生动物疫病发生趋势会商会。 会商会上，来自中国科学院、军事科学院、中国农科院、中国疾病预防控制中心、全国鸟类环志中心、中山大学、东北林业大学等不同部门和院校的14位专家针对非洲猪瘟、禽流感、小反刍兽疫、西尼罗热等重要野生动物疫病的发生趋势和风险因素做了专题报告。 专家研判认为，2020年全国野生动物疫情将继续保持上升态势。非洲猪瘟在野猪种群中发生并继续扩大传播的风险较大；禽流感、狂犬病、鼠疫等人兽共患病的病原体在野生动物与家禽家畜间互传，并传播给人类的风险持续存在；小反刍兽疫、犬瘟热等对珍稀濒危野生动物种群安全的威胁较大，其病原体在野生动物与家畜间互传的风险不断增加；西尼罗热、尼帕病毒病等经边境地区野生动物传入我国的风险不可忽视。（本报记者章轲对本文亦有贡献） http://www.xyzc.cn/article-301930-1.html
标签: 新发病毒性传染病
