我们在2019年11月25日发表的通信论文SpaceWeatherandPandemicWarnings?中明确指出, 提醒全球未来几个月很快会出现新的病毒。公共卫生部门必须提高警惕并采取适当的行动! 请见论文原文。 本人是通讯作者。 结果论文发表后一个月,就在湖北省武汉市就出现了新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情,这是新发病毒性传染病射线学说和预测预警的一次科学验证。希望我们的理论引起全球科学界特别是公共卫生界的广泛关注!由于宇宙射线的增强以及地磁场的减弱,我们认为地球村目前已经进入新发病毒性传染病的高发期,未来1-2年有可能继续出现流感大流行等新发病毒传染病,全球公共卫生界需要持续保持警戒! Are We Approaching a New Influenza Pandemic? https://www.hilarispublisher.com/abstract/are-we-approaching-a-new-influenza-pandemic-24922.html Figure 1 The current cycle 24 and predicted cycle 25 Space weather and pandemic warnings.pdf 我在2019年11月23日发表的博客《 加强太空天气监测,预警疾病大流行 》中指出:目前全球宇宙射线在大幅增强,根据我们提出的新发病毒性传染病的射线学说,地球村在2020年前后很可能出现包括流感在内的新发病毒传染病大流行,这是我们多次强调的观点,因此公共卫生部门要提高警惕,加强预测预警,并采取适当的行动预防传染病大流行的出现,将传染病流行造成的损失降到最低。我们既要脚踏实地,又要仰望星空,监测地磁场变化和太空天气将会成为未来疾病特别是新发病毒传染病大流行预警最有效的手段之一。 http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-529903-1210343.html 我在2019-12-17发表的博客《 脚踏实地,仰望星空:科学预警传染病大流行 》中指出:2020年前后会发生什么?由于目前太阳正在经历第24周期和第25周期之间的最小活动期,最近几个月太阳上的黑子几乎全部消失,并且处于近100年最弱的时期,宇宙射线大幅增强, 根据我们提出的最新理论,地球村在2020年前后很可能出现包括流感在内的新发病毒传染病大流行,这是我们首次以论文的形式向世界发出预警,因此公共卫生部门要提高警惕,加强预测预警,并采取适当的行动预防疾病大流行的出现,将疾病流行造成的损失降到最低。 监测太空天气将会成为未来疾病大流行预警最有效手段之一! 预则立,不预则废!希望能有更多的学者去仰望星空,从而让医学特别是流行病学的发展能够更上一层楼! http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-529903-1207309.html 英国媒体对我们论文的报道: Coronavirus could turn to global pandemic as freak solar minimum means outbreak ‘imminent' CORONAVIRUS could spread into a global pandemic due to a freak slump in solar activity, with experts warning of a spike in potentially deadly viruses. By NATHAN RAO PUBLISHED: 07:35, Sat, Jan 25, 2020 | UPDATED: 15:32, Sat, Jan 25, 2020 The “deepest sunspot minimum” for more than a century is about to force the Sun into partial hibernation, they say. Public health authorities have been warned to be vigilant with the phenomenon linked to historic viral pandemics. Previously unseen strains could emerge through the coming months while existing ones turn super-virulent, according to a report in Current Science. The news comes as Coronavirus rips through China, rapidly infecting more than 800 people. RELATED ARTICLES ‘She’s a TIMEBOMB’ Chinese woman hides Coronavirus symptoms in France Coronavirus horror: Footage shows infected residents act like zombies While not naming Coronavirus specifically as being caused by the solar minimum, experts say the weaker magnetic field caused by the drop in sunspots gives ground for new viruses to emerge. Lead author Chandra Wickramasinghe, of the Buckingham Centre for Astrobiology, said: “A global virus pandemic is imminent. “On the basis of sunspot numbers, this could have serious consequences globally during the coming months.” The solar slump is causing the Earth’s magnetic field to weaken allowing “biological entities” including DNA to fall to the planet’s surface. READ MORE: Desperate China tries to build 1,000-bed hospital in just TWO DAYS Coronavirus risks turning into global pandemic as freak solar minimum means outbreak ‘imminent’ (Image: AFP•GETTY) Scientists believe infective agents originating from comets and other planets inhabit near space in a type of soup – the so-called panspermia theory. While they can naturally drift towards Earth, they are largely held at bay by magnetic fields which are strengthened by solar activity. The imminent reduction in solar activity will knock a chink in this armour while “opening the floodgates” to a flux of cosmic rays”. These rays threaten to disrupt the DNA present in bacteria and viruses already present, creating super-virulent versions. Professor Wickramasinghe said: “There are two problems we fear may arise. “Biological entities can penetrate the weakened magnetic field under these circumstances to a much greater degree than under normal conditions. DONT MISS ‘Like Walking Dead’ Coronavirus hell as corpses litter hospitals Coronavirus latest: What you can do to prevent deadly virus spreading Coronavirus: Shadowy lab for world’s deadliest diseases in Wuhan Coronavirus map: Coronavirus has spread rapidly from China (Image: EXPRESS) “So we could see new, potentially deadly viruses, emerge on Earth after these floodgates are opened. “Another aspect is mutations induced by cosmic rays in biological infectious agents already here, this could give them new characteristics and making then super-virulent. “It would be prudent for public health authorities the world over to be vigilant and prepared for any necessary action.” Previous viral pandemics have coincided with periods of low solar activity although scientists have struggled to find a definitive link. However they now think the effect of the sun on magnetic fields affects solar winds and the flow of charged particles including bacteria and viruses. Professor Wickramasinghe said: “Now, with space exploration and continuous monitoring of space weather, it is evident that the Earth’s magnetosphere and the the interplanetary magnetic filed in its vicinity, are modulated by the solar wind that in turn controls the flow of charged particles onto the Earth. “There appears to be a case for expecting new viral strains to emerge over the coming months. “There are many claims that the occurrence of pandemic influenza and other viral outbreaks is correlated with the 11-year sunspot cycle. “We need hardly be reminded that the spectre of the 1918 devastating influenza pandemic stares us in the face from across a century.” However Dr Martin Wiselka, an infectious diseases consultant at the University of Leicester NHS Trust, dismissed the claims, saying: “There are lots of things to worry about but I don’t think this is one of them. “While there may be some truth in the theory of bits of DNA and viruses floating around space, there is no real evidence to support this, I think it just doesn’t happen. “We have got perfectly good explanations of how the coronavirus travels between the animal reservoir and the human reservoir. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1232974/coronavirus-china-virus-pandemic-WHO
英国科学家预测太阳活动从2020年左右进入极小期,并可能维持很长一段时间。历史上的蒙德极小期和道尔顿极小期,都伴随出现了极寒天气,并出现了霍乱和鼠疫大流行,很可能与这一时期太阳黑子活动减弱,宇宙射线大幅增强有关。从2009年开始,太阳活动不断减弱,进入现代太阳黑子活动极小期,因此全球近些年不断出现了甲流,MERS, H7N9人感染禽流感,埃博拉,寨卡等新发病毒传染病。随着太阳黑子活动的继续减弱,全球在未来30~50年内会不断出现各种新发病毒传染病,包括流感大流行。全球公共卫生将面临巨大挑战,必须加强监测预警!详细分析见论文 Sunspot Cycle Minima and Pandemics: The Case for Vigilance?(附件) Sunspot Cycle Minima and Pandemics The Case for Vigilance.pdf 以下为太阳活动进入现代极小期的证据: 太阳活动达到近百年来最弱的时期 冰河世纪到来?!罕见极寒“杀手”气温袭击北美,全美一片恐慌! https://m.sohu.com/a/215117490_659084/?pvid=000115_3w_a Is a mini ice age on the way? Scientists warn the Sun has 'gone to sleep' and say it could cause temperatures to plunge http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2541599/Is-mini-ice-age-way-Scientists-warn-Sun-gone-sleep-say-cause-temperatures-plunge.html