Nature Communication 总结了2018年最有影响力的50篇地球科学和星球科学研究文章。 其中有好几篇是中国学者的文章,值得大家看一看。 原文链接: https://www.nature.com/collections/ebbeeieefe/ 1. Arctic sea ice is an important temporal sink and means of transport for microplastic 北极海冰是微塑料的重要时间池和运输工具 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03825-5 2. A large planetary body inferred from diamond inclusions in a ureilite meteorite 从堇青石陨石中的金刚石夹杂物推断出的大行星体 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03808-6 3. Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century 在过去的一个世纪里,海洋热浪越来越频繁 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03732-9 4. A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend 一种新的概率预测系统预测2018 - 2022年异常暖期加剧了长期的全球变暖趋势 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05442-8 5. Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise 地中海联合国教科文组织世界遗产因海平面上升而受到沿海洪水和侵蚀的威胁 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-06645-9 6. Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action 根据“巴黎协定”承诺的海平面上升以及延迟缓解行动的遗产 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02985-8 7. Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States 温暖的北极事件与美国极端冬季天气频率增加有关 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02992-9 8. Warming assessment of the bottom-up Paris Agreement emissions pledges 对自下而上的“巴黎协定”排放承诺进行的变暖评估 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07223-9 9. 21st-century modeled permafrost carbon emissions accelerated by abrupt thaw beneath lakes 21世纪模拟的永久冻土碳排放由于湖泊突然解冻而加速 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05738-9 10. North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation 由于气候变化和灌溉,中国华北平原受到致命热浪的威胁 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05252-y 11. Silica-rich volcanism in the early solar system dated at 4.565 Ga 早期太阳系中富含二氧化硅的火山活动日期为4.565 Ga https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05501-0 12. Recent enhanced high-summer North Atlantic Jet variability emerges from three-century context 最近增强的夏季北大西洋急流的变化来自三世纪的背景 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-02699-3 13. Predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data 使用全新世相对海平面数据预测沼泽对海平面上升的脆弱性 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05080-0 14. The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation 北极放大对中纬度夏季环流的影响 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05256-8 15. A hexagon in Saturna’s northern stratosphere surrounding the emerging summertime polar vortex 土星北部平流层中的六边形,围绕着新兴的夏季极涡 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-06017-3 16. Evidence of an active volcanic heat source beneath the Pine Island Glacier 松岛冰川下有活跃的火山热源的证据 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04421-3 17. Mapping a hidden terrane boundary in the mantle lithosphere with lamprophyres 绘制地幔岩石圈中隐藏的地体边界与煌斑岩 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-06253-7 18. Dark zone of the Greenland Ice Sheet controlled by distributed biologically-active impurities 格陵兰冰盖的暗区由分布的生物活性杂质控制 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03353-2 19. The global flood protection savings provided by coral reefs 珊瑚礁减少了全球防洪损失 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04568-z 20. Early Palaeozoic ocean anoxia and global warming driven by the evolution of shallow burrowing 早期古生代海洋缺氧和全球变暖由浅洞穴的演变驱动 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04973-4 21. Cascading lake drainage on the Greenland Ice Sheet triggered by tensile shock and fracture 由拉伸冲击和断裂引发的格陵兰冰盖层叠湖泊排水 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03420-8 22. Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century 永久冻土的退化使得北极基础设施在本世纪中叶处于危险之中 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07557-4 23. Large increase in global storm runoff extremes driven by climate and anthropogenic changes 由气候和人为变化驱动的全球风暴径流极端事件大幅增加 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-06765-2 24. The world’s largest High Arctic lake responds rapidly to climate warming 世界上最大的北极高地湖泊对气候变暖作出迅速反应 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03685-z 25. The rise of South-South trade and its effect on global CO2 emissions 南南贸易的兴起及其对全球二氧化碳排放的影响 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04337-y 26. Fire air pollution reduces global terrestrial productivity 火灾空气污染降低了全球陆地生产力 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07921-4 27. Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets 土地使用排放在巴黎气候目标的陆地缓解方面发挥着关键作用 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05340-z 28. Europe’s renewable energy directive poised to harm global forests 欧洲的可再生能源指令有望破坏全球森林 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-06175-4 29. Ocean science research is key for a sustainable future 海洋科学研究是可持续未来的关键 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03158-3 30. Impact on short-lived climate forcers increases projected warming due to deforestation 对短期气候强迫者的影响增加了由于森林砍伐导致的预计变暖 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-02412-4 31. Pastoralism may have delayed the end of the green Sahara 畜牧业可能推迟了绿色撒哈拉的结束 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-06321-y 32. The Medusae Fossae Formation as the single largest source of dust on Mars Medusae Fossae组是火星上唯一最大的尘埃源 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05291-5 33. Volcanic crystals as time capsules of eruption history 火山晶体作为喷发历史的时间胶囊 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-02274-w 34. Disclosing the temperature of columnar jointing in lavas 披露熔岩中柱状连接的温度 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03842-4 35. Two-thirds of global cropland area impacted by climate oscillations 全球三分之二的耕地面积受到气候振荡的影响 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-02071-5 36. Continental shelves as a variable but increasing global sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide 大陆架作为一个变量,但增加了大气二氧化碳的全球汇 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-02738-z 37. Exacerbated fires in Mediterranean Europe due to anthropogenic warming projected with non-stationary climate-fire models 由于非人类气候火灾模型的人为变暖导致地中海欧洲火灾加剧 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-06358-z 38. Emerging risks from marine heat waves 海洋热浪带来的新风险 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03163-6 39. Evaluating climate geoengineering proposals in the context of the Paris Agreement temperature goals 在“巴黎协定”温度目标的背景下评估气候地球工程建议 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05938-3 40. Seasonal energy exchange in sea ice retreat regions contributes to differences in projected Arctic warming 海冰撤退区域的季节性能量交换导致预测的北极变暖的差异 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07061-9 41. Estimating geological CO2 storage security to deliver on climate mitigation 估算地质二氧化碳封存安全,以实现减缓气候变化 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04423-1 42. Overpumping leads to California groundwater arsenic threat 过度抽水导致加州地下水砷威胁 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04475-3 43. Dynamic strain determination using fibre-optic cables allows imaging of seismological and structural features 使用光纤电缆进行动态应变测定可以对地震和结构特征进行成像 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04860-y 44. Pronounced centennial-scale Atlantic Ocean climate variability correlated with Western Hemisphere hydroclimate 显着的百年尺度大西洋气候变率与西半球水文气候相关 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02846-4 45. Internal climate variability and projected future regional steric and dynamic sea level rise 内部气候变化和预计的未来区域空间和动态海平面上升 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03474-8 46. Dynamic anticrack propagation in snow 雪中 的动态防裂传播 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05181-w 47. A new interhemispheric teleconnection increases predictability of winter precipitation in southwestern US 新的半球间遥相关增加了美国西南部冬季降水的可预测性 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04722-7 48. Global and Arctic climate sensitivity enhanced by changes in North Pacific heat flux 北太平洋热通量的变化增强了全球和北极的气候敏感性 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05337-8 49. Dissolved organic carbon leaching from plastics stimulates microbial activity in the ocean 从塑料中浸出的溶解有机碳会刺激海洋中的微生物活动 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-03798-5 50. Southern Hemisphere westerlies as a driver of the early deglacial atmospheric CO2 rise 南半球西风带作为早期冰川大气二氧化碳上升的驱动因素 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04876-4
求教心切。以下内容,词不达意。敬请指教!敬请批评! 下面定位请教限制的领域:“ 电力系统 ”+“ 风电 ”。 利用季风的空间相关性提高风电功率预报的定位: 世界首创 、 国际领先 、 国内领先 、 国内一般 、 没有价值 ? 在吴炳卫同学 2018 校级优秀硕士学位论文《推荐表》里,要求:简要评价本论文的创新点 及其与国内同期论文的比较位置。 因此,想请教各位老师同学们,我们的“利用季风的空间相关性提高风电功率预报”的定位(“国内同期论文的比较位置”):是 世界首创 、 国际领先 、 国内领先 、 国内一般 、 没有价值 ? 背景简介: (1)由于数值天气预报NWP从2011年以来大体进入饱和期,对风速的预报效果等出现相对的停滞期。 (2)统计方法,如果只利用本地的历史资料,则对未来有效预测的时间一般不超出 12 小时。 (3)NWP 风速预报中的“家族性缺陷”:“同源 NWP 预测误差形态相似(即使是 NWP 集合预报产品),正负偏差不能相互抵消”。 因此,“空间相关性”风速预报,成为当前可能有效提高风速的首选研究方法,具有成为“新的技术突破”的潜力。 但是,“空间相关性”风速预报,要利用客观存在的上游地点的风速、风向、气压等。这些客观存在的自然条件,是“空间相关性”效果的核心限制。一般地,欧美大多数地区空间相关性预报的空间距离在 50 公里、时间提前在 4 小时以内。这是因为欧美地区没有大范围的风速空间相关性。即没有“季风”等自然条件。 具有大范围风速空间相关性的自然条件之一,是季风。我国东南部、印度、非洲中部,是经典季风区。欧美没有典型的季风现象。 图1,欧美基本上没有典型的季风现象。 (李建平老师的 Global surface monsoon distribution), http://ljp.gcess.cn/dct/page/65591 The geographical extent of the global surface monsoons (the figure above) can be outlined by the normalized seasonality (Li and Zeng, 2000, 2003, 2005). The global surface monsoons contains three kinds of monsoons: the tropical, subtropical, and temperate-frigid monsoons, respectively. The extent of the classical tropicalmonsoons is surrounded by the positions of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in summer and winter, which is the result of the two driving forcings of thetropical monsoon, the seasonal variation of the planetary thermal convection and the seasonal variation of the semi-permanent planetary waves due to the thermalcontrast between ocean and continent (Zeng and Li, 2002; Li and Zeng, 2005). 图2,德国北部某地对欧洲风速的空间相关性。左图为夏季,右图为冬季。 原图为 Fig. 1. Wind speed correlation for a reference point in northern Germany, winter and summer-day. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261911006933#f0005 我们的初步研究发现: (1)我国东南沿海的季风(冬季风、夏季风),一般具有 2000公里以上、提前时间 20小时以上的空间相关性。 (2)对未来27小时风速预报的均方根误差 2m/s(至少大风时),而NWP对未来12小时的误差 2m/s。 我们观点的核心: ( 1 )我国有季风,所以可以用“空间相关性”提高短期风电预报; ( 2 )欧美地区没有典型的季风,所以“空间相关性”效果较差; ( 3 )印度、非洲中部,也是经典季风区。我们的研究假如成功,有可能推广到这些地区。 在 SCI、EI 里检索,尚未发现与我们相同或类似的探索。 根据上述情况,我们的“利用季风的空间相关性提高风速预报”研究的定位,大约是 世界首创 、 国际领先 、 国内领先 、 国内一般 、 没有价值 ? 感谢您的指教! 本研究未来需要的条件: (1)主要是我国东南沿海的 风速 、 风向 、 气压 、 气温 等历史观测资料,时间分辨率最好在 1 分钟 以内。 (2)典型风机的有功功率、风速、风向、机舱角、气压、气温等历史过程资料,时间分辨率最好在 1秒以内。 (3)大块的研究时间,没有手机、微信、电话、敲门等各种干扰。 (4)科研需要的其它基本条件。 相关链接: 薛禹胜, 陈宁, 王树民, 文福拴, 林振智, 汪震. 关于利用空间相关性预测风速的评述 . 电力系统自动化 , 2017, 41(10): 161-169. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20170109002. XUE Yusheng, CHEN Ning, WANG Shumin, WEN Fushuan, LIN Zhenzhi, WANG Zhen. Review on wind speed prediction based on spatial correlation . Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2017, 41(10): 161-169. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20170109002. http://aeps.alljournals.ac.cn/aeps/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20170109002flag=1 http://aeps.alljournals.ac.cn/aeps/ch/reader/issue_list.aspx?year_id=2017quarter_id=10 叶林,赵永宁.基于空间相关性的风电功率预测研究综述 . 电力系统自动化 , 2014, 38(14): 126-135. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20130911004. YE Lin,ZHAO Yongning.A Review on Wind Power Prediction Based on Spatial Correlation Approach .Automation of Electric Power Systems,2014,38(14):126-135. DOI: 10.7500/AEPS20130911004. http://www.aeps-info.com/aeps/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=20130911004flag=1 Jung J, Broadwater R P. Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting . Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2014, (31): 762-777. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032114000094 ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast), Verification of the high-resolution forecast of surface parameters against SYNOP observations https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/plwww_m_hr_wp_ts?facets=undefinedtime=2018062300parameter=10m%20wind%20speed Thomas Haiden, Progress in wind forecasting in the ECMWF model http://www.ewea.org/events/workshops/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EWEA-Wind-Power-Forecasting-2015-Workshop-02-01-Thomas-Haiden-ECMWF.pdf 乔颖, 鲁宗相, 闵勇. 提高风电功率预测精度的方法 . 电网技术 ,2017, 41 (10): 3261-3268. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2017.1581 http://mall.cnki.net/magazine/Article/DWJS201710023.htm 杨茂, 杨琼琼. 风电机组风速功率特性曲线建模研究综述 . 电力自动化设备 ,2018, 38(2): 34-43. http://www.epae.cn/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?file_no=201802005flag=1 陈隆勋,朱乾根,罗会邦,等.东亚季风 . 北京:气象出版社, 1991. WANG B.The Asian monsoon .New York:Springer–Verlag,2006. LAING A,EVANS J-L.Introduction to tropical meteorology,2nd edition .(2011–10) .http://www.goes– r.gov/users/comet/tropical/textbook_2nd_edition/navmenu.php_tab_4_page_5.0.0.htm 以前下载的,现在看不到该内容了。 An improved multi-step forecasting model based on WRF ensembles and creative fuzzy systems for wind speed. 作者: Zhao, Jing; Guo, Zhen-Hai; Su, Zhong-Yue; 等. APPLIED ENERGY 卷: 162 页: 808-826 出版年: JAN 15 2016 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261915013872?via%3Dihub Multi-step wind speed and power forecasts based on a WRF simulation and an optimized association method. 作者: Zhao, Jing; Guo, Yanling; Xiao, Xia; 等. APPLIED ENERGY 卷: 197 页: 183-202 出版年: JUL 1 2017 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261917304105?via%3Dihub 黄瑞芳,周园春,鞠永茂,等. 气象与大数据 .北京:科学出版社,2017. http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-528739-1080292.html 目前,某些短期要素的客观预报水平已经接近甚至超过预报员的主观预报水平,但由于受到大气探测技术的应用和对某些天气现象机理认识的限制, 不少天气要素如降水、风等的预报结果与实况有一定差距。 Hagspiel S, Papaemannouil A, Schmid M, et al. Copula-based modeling of stochastic wind power in Europe and implications for the Swiss power grid . Applied Energy, 2012, 96: 33-44. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261911006933#f0005 2018-07-23, ECMWF 风速预报误差的具体含义 http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-107667-1125592.html 2018-03-03,ECMWF (欧洲中期天气预报中心)的预报误差 http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-107667-1102078.html 我们的相关论文与观点等: 我国冬季风路径上风速与其影响因子的优化延迟相关性分析 . 电力系统保护与控制 ,2018 录用。 杨正瓴,刘仍祥,李真真. 基于季风和大气压分布的我国风电功率预测研究 (Survey on China Wind Power Prediction Based on Monsoons and Atmospheric Pressure Distribution) . 分布式能源 (Distributed Energy), 2018, 3(2): 29-38 http://der.tsinghuajournals.com/article/2018/2096-2185/101427TK-2018-02-005.shtml http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-FBNY201802005.htm 杨正瓴,刘阳,张泽,等.采用最近历史观测值和 PLSR 进行空间相关性超短期风速预测 . 电网技术 ,2017,41(6): 1815–1822. YANG Zhengling, LIU Yang, ZHANG Ze, et al. Ultra-short-term wind speed prediction with spatial correlation using recent historical observations . Power System Technology,2017,41(6): 1815–1822. http://www.dwjs.com.cn/CN/volumn/volumn_1517.shtml http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-DWJS201706016.htm 杨正瓴,杨钊,张玺,等.基于季风提高空间相关性预测的优化延迟时间 . 电力系统保护与控制 ,2016,44(15): 33–38. YANG Zhengling, YANG Zhao, ZHANG Xi, et al. Improving optimal lag time of spatial correlation prediction by characteristics of monsoon .Power System Protection and Control,2016,44(15): 33–38. http://www.dlbh.net/dlbh/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx?flag=1file_no=20161505journal_id=dlbh http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-JDQW201615005.htm 杨正瓴,冯勇,熊定方,等.基于季风特性改进风电功率预测的研究展望 . 智能电网 ,2015,3(1):1–7. YANG Zhengling,FENG Yong,XIONG Dingfang,et al.Research prospects of improvement in wind power forecasting based on characteristics of monsoons .Smart Grid,2015 ,3(1): 1–7. http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-ZNDW201501001.htm 中科院科学智慧火花, 2016-02-24 ,计及风力发电机机械惯性的更精确“风速-功率”关系 http://idea.cas.cn/viewdoc.action?docid=45013 http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-107667-1059999.html 2018-08-11 ,恭喜吴炳卫同学获得“天津大学 2018 年优秀硕士学位论文” http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-107667-1128696.html http://www.tech110.net/home.php?mod=spaceuid=11851do=blogid=78679 2017-07-05 ,恭喜杨钊同学获得“天津大学 2017 年优秀硕士学位论文” http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-107667-1064703.html http://www.tech110.net/home.php?mod=spaceuid=11851do=blogid=77576 附录一(NWP常见的风速预报误差): (1)第6页,Thomas Haiden, Progress in wind forecasting in the ECMWF model (2)第7页,Thomas Haiden, Progress in wind forecasting in the ECMWF model http://www.ewea.org/events/workshops/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/EWEA-Wind-Power-Forecasting-2015-Workshop-02-01-Thomas-Haiden-ECMWF.pdf (3)ECMWF 官方网站 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast), Verification of the high-resolution forecast of surface parameters against SYNOP observations https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/plwww_m_hr_wp_ts?facets=undefinedtime=2018062300parameter=10m%20wind%20speed (4)2017,Jing Zhao,WRF model的改进,我国山东。 Multi-step wind speed and power forecasts based on a WRF simulation and an optimized association method. 作者: Zhao, Jing; Guo, Yanling; Xiao, Xia; 等. APPLIEDENERGY 卷: 197 页: 183-202 出版年: JUL 1 2017, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261917304105?via%3Dihub 附录二(中国风能资源专业观测网测风塔分布): 中国气象局风能太阳能资源评估中心.中国风能资源的详查和评估 .风能,2011,(8):26-30. CMA Wind and Solar Resources Center.Investigation and evaluation of wind energy resources in the China .Wind Energy,2011,(8):26-30(in Chinese). http://www.cnki.com.cn/Article/CJFDTotal-FENE201108006.htm 感谢您的指教! 感谢您指正以上任何错误! 感谢您提供更多的相关资料!