第十一章：分形进化 “一旦我们理解了进化的数学， 我们就将了解未来。” ——斯瓦米·贝雍达南达 未来学有未来吗？ 在第一部分 信者得见 和第二部分 启示录中的四种错觉 中，我们提供了一份简短的西方文明史，这份历史是通过不断进化的基本范式这一镜头看到的。我们的重点是个人信念怎样地影响了我们的生物学，以及文化的范式信念如何塑造一个文明的命运。在第三部分中，我们将把这些旧故事抛在脑后，与此同时为新的故事编织各种元素，这个新故事将引导我们通过真正的新千年这块未知之地。 在编写“我们是怎么来的”的故事时，我们得到了一个坐享其成的机会，可以从后知后觉的角度评估历史。然而，第三部分将介绍一种完全不同类型的故事——某种深入未来的愿景。提供 将 发生什么的信息显然和提供历史分析属于不同的努力。我们现在即将进入预测这个领域，或者更正式地称为 未来学 ，即根据对社会趋势的评估，系统地预报未来。 预测可以是精密的推理，也可能是彻底的猜测。从性质上讲，猜测所依据的是不充分的信息，因此它代表着某种不确定的预测。与此相反，推理所依据的是证据和逻辑，因此它代表了有很大概率可能正确的预测。然而，推理的准确性依赖于所知的证据和逻辑推演。显然，本该很坚实的推理也可能完全脱靶，只要它所依据的诸信念是不准确的或者扭曲的。 福特汽车公司为通过扭曲的镜头展望未来提供了强有力的实例。 1958 年，福特发布了一项 4 亿美元的风险投资项目，旨在吸引公众的关注和购买力。福特雇佣了麦迪逊大道上最好的营销研究团队，设计出一个新的汽车系列，并将其吹捧为“……带有更多你的观念”的汽车。福特的这型埃德塞尔汽车，其设计目标是满足大众在流行款式上的趋势，其广告设计目的也是从科学角度上吸引购车者的动机。 但埃德塞尔却成了历史上最有名的营销灾难。事实上，该名称从此成为商业惨败的代名词，其他同样命运多舛的产品往往被诙谐地作为“埃德塞尔之流”弃置掉。营销专家们把埃德塞尔当做美国企业无法了解美国消费者的绝顶实例。有关这次失败的更有趣的因素之一，如《 时代 》杂志在其“ 50 种最差汽车”名单中所说的，是“文化评论家们推测，这辆车之所以是一个失败，是因为其垂直格栅看起来很像阴道。也许吧。美国在 1950 年代中对各种与女性相关的事物肯定都有恐惧症。” 使用传统诸信念和推理来做预测的未来学家有时会错得很离谱。就像一位弓手一样，他们有罪。预言者之罪的严重性可以从被误导的人数上来测量。那么如果某未来学家刚好是负责指导文明命运的政治学家、经济学家、或者社会学家的话，想一想这位未来学家的罪的后果吧。 在以下这个悲剧性的错觉和误导的实例中，国防部长唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德向全世界保证，战胜伊拉克所花费的时间不会超过几个星期。我们现在知道，拉姆斯菲尔德基于扭曲的证据和推理所犯的罪，已经让美国为这场所有战争中之埃德塞尔付出了——并且还将继续不断地付出——高昂的代价！ 优秀的未来学家有能力评估数据并识别其中的固有模式。因此，模式识别是学习过程中的首要成分，也是规划未来之所必需。 下面给你一个机会，测试一下你作为未来学家的技能如何。请研究下面的四个序列，预测填空的数字或字母： (1) 13 – 26 – 39 – 52 – 65 –___ (2) C – F – I – L – O – R –___ (3) 7 – 3 – B – 16 – 2 – 9 –C – 0 – 4 – H – 1 – 1 – ___ (4) 3 – 1 – 4 – 1 – 5 – 9 –2 – 6 – ___ 只有当我们观察到某种可识别的模式之后，答案才会显现。在序列（ 1 ）中，模式显示每个新数字的导出方法是给前一个数字加 13 。在序列（ 2 ）中的模式是列出字母表中每次排第三位的字母。如果你第（ 1 ）和（ 2 ）题的答案分别是 78 和 U ，那么恭喜你——你已经看到了深入未来的景象！ 然而，在预测序列（ 3 ）的未来时，问题就出现了。因为很显然，这个模式既没有节律也没有逻辑。因此，不论你用任何答案来填空，顾名思义，它所代表的都是彻底的猜测。因为这是某种随机序列，从哲学上说，任何猜测都可能对或者错——而且，正如适用于量子宇宙的情形，该猜测的准确性理所当然地依赖于观察者。 对大多数读者而言，序列（ 4 ）似乎又是一个随机序列。令人惊讶的是，它的答案是 5 。也许你已经足够聪明地认出了这个表面看来的非模式其实是一串特定的数字序列，它代表着圆周率（π）的数学形式。因此，序列（ 4 ）强调了某种对未来学家而言重要的关注点，也就是自然界中这样的一些成分，它看上去似乎是随机的，实际上却是 混沌的 ，因为它们具有某种潜在但迄今未知的模式。 这个简单的练习说明了有关未来学的三个根本要点：首先，如果能够识别出某种模式，那么预测未来事件的准确性相对较高。其次，如果发现事件是随机的，那么所有的预测本质上都是猜测，其精确性是靠碰运气的。第三，表面看来缺乏某种模式并不意味着真的没有模式。有些模式显而易见，有些模式不易辨认，有些事情根本就没有模式！ 生存有赖于模式识别。作为原始的例子，人族早期对自然界基本模式的知识包括昼夜周期，月周期，以及包括四季的恒星年周期。观察与预测天体模式的能力对农业的发展和文明的进一步演化都十分重要，因为这种觉察给人们提供了方法和动机以规划未来的行动，例如春种秋收以待冬日。 同样，早期的人类文化能够把生老病死的生物模式与这颗行星上季节循环的模式联系起来。这些模式对于生存来说是如此的重要，以至于各种文明都建立了许多巨型建筑和神殿，例如英国巨石阵和马丘比丘的印加太阳神殿，以观察和标记日月星辰的运转。 今天，日历成了我们记录这些每日的、季节性的以及年度的模式的标记物。只要日历在手，不论身处世界上任何地方的人都可以知道，诸如海龟到加拉帕戈斯海滩产卵的繁殖季，或燕子返回卡波斯特拉罗的日子。 当早期人类把天文模式与人类行为模式相互联系时，他们发现了地球周期和人体生理学之间的关系。例如，月周期和女人月经周期的长度都是 28 天，这个事实并非某种巧合。 天空和人的生物学与行为之间的这种联系导致古代社会创建了占星术这门科学和艺术。事实证明，模式观测和人的行为预测这样的占星术实践是如此之有价值，以至于从最早记载的历史直到今天，各国政府的统治者与领袖们都在咨询占星学家以占卜他们国家的未来。 随着新文化信息的引入并被视为真理，先肇始于一神论者，后来又被科学唯物论者所加强，文明对地球艺术的觉察力逐渐退化，先是变成了历史，然后岁易时移，又变成了神话。今天的科学认为，这些古老的实践纯粹是违背自然法则的信仰。而我们当今这个基于科学的社会完全抛弃了这种古老的深入未来的占卜艺术，把它当做原始的超自然礼仪。 但是，或许正如新的前沿科学所揭示的，这些地源性实践仅仅是违背了传统科学家们那种受局限的视野而已，这些人仍然在通过那四种神话错觉的有色眼镜看世界。幸运的是，在我们中间还有能说这颗行星的语言的原住民后裔。但是，这些地球管家的人口正在迅速减少，所以我们必须迅速行动起来，以确保他们的智慧不会丢失。 今天之文明的特征主要是由科学唯物论拿出来作为范式性真理的东西所塑造的，而这些东西其实是 19 世纪中叶达尔文介绍了他那个版本的进化论之后才开始被采纳的信念体系。尽管它们存在固有的缺陷，但这些被视为科学真理的东西仍然提供了某种重要的概念框架，使技术发展和文明成长成为可能。不过，尽管这些有缺陷的信念体系曾经为我们的现代世界提供了奇迹，但其缺点今天已经威胁到了人类的生存。 目前人类所面临的关键问题其实是一些症状，它们反映出我们无法伸向未来。文明像一支任性的火箭，已经歪歪斜斜地从一个灾难飞往另一个灾难，充分表现出自己是一个强大的但却没有任何有意导航的运载工具。 传统智慧正是促成人类历史的那种反复无常、并且经常是灾难深重的历史进程的重要因素。尽管这种普遍接受的推理形式被用于勾画模式并展望未来，但它也可能被错误的知觉所扭曲，尤其是当我们需要对能量场、基因决定论和进化的本质有一个准确认识的时候。 因此，为了准确地看清我们的去向，必须首先了解我们导致现状的模式。然而，在向传统科学咨询进化中的固有模式问题时，我们必须认识到，达尔文主义那种很有限制性的随机进化信仰会在很大程度上扭曲他们的答案。 传统科学如何解释我们导致现状的过程？ 噢——是在随机突变和遗传事故的驱动之下，通过数十亿年的时间逐步演变而来的。 那么，如果我们就是这样一路走来的，那么我们可以预测进化将把我们带向何处吗？ 也许是一路兜风……到地狱？ 严肃地说，如果进化是由随机的、无模式的事件驱动的，有谁能预测我们会去往何方？在这种情况下，任何预测从概念上说都是一种纯粹的猜测。例如，想一想当初家用电脑热刚开始冲击大众的时候，未来学家们预测说，在若干世纪之后，人类将进化成身体更小、脑袋更大的状态，因为他们整天坐在电脑终端前。但是，如果我们看看目前流行的肥胖和智力萎缩，就可以看出这个预言纯粹是一场埃德塞尔猜测！ Chapter 11 Fractal Evolution “Once we understand the math of evolution, we will understand the aftermath as well.” —Swami Beyondananda Is There a Future in Futurology? In Part I, BelievingIs Seeing, and Part II, FourMyth-Perceptions of the Apocalypse, we provided a brief history ofWestern civilization as seen through the lens of an evolving basal paradigm.Our focus was on the nature of how personal beliefs influence our biology andhow a culture’s paradigmatic beliefs shape the fate of a civilization. In PartIII, we leave the oldstories behind as we weave the elements of a new story that will guide usthrough the uncharted territory of a truly new millennium. In compiling the story of how we gothere, we were afforded the armchair opportunity of assessing history throughthe lens of 20–20 hindsight. But Part III introduces a completely differentkind of story—a vision into the future. Offering information as to what will be is clearly a different endeavor thanproviding an historical analysis. We are now entering into the domain of prediction,or, more formally, Futurology, a systematic forecasting ofthe future based on an assessment of societal trends. A prediction may range from an outrightguess to an astute inference. By its nature, a guess is based on in sufficient information and,consequently, represents a chancy prediction . In contrast, an inference is based on evidence and reasoning and, therefore,represents a prediction that has a greater probability of being correct . Yet, the accuracy of aninference is dependent on perceived evidence and reason. Obviously, apresumably solid inference can totally miss the mark if the beliefs upon whichit is founded are inaccurate or distorted. The Ford Motor Company provided apowerful example of envisioning the future through a distorted lens. In 1958,Ford unveiled a $400 million venture designed to capture the public’s attentionand purchasing dollars. Using the best Madison Avenue marketing research, Forddesigned a new line of automobiles touted as the carhaving “. . . more YOU ideas.” The Ford Edsel wasengineered to complement public trends in styling, and its advertising wasscientifically designed to elicit car buyers’ motivations. But the Edsel became the most famous marketing disaster in history. In fact, the namehas since become synonymous with commercial fiascos, and other similarlyill-fated products are often comically dismissed as being Edsels. Marketingexperts hold the Edsel up as a supreme example of corporate America’s inabilityto understand the nature of the American consumer. One of the more interesting factorsfor the failure, as stated in TIME magazine’s list of “50 Worst Cars,” was that: “ Cultural critics speculated that the car was a flop because thevertical grill looked like a vagina. Maybe. America in the ’ 50swas certainly phobic about the female business.” Futurists who use conventional beliefs and reasoning totarget a prediction sometimes widely miss the mark. Like an archer, they sin.The gravity of a prognosticator’s sin can be measured in terms of the number ofpeople who are misled. Consider the ramifications of a futurist’s sin when thatfuturist is a politician, economist, or sociologist responsible for guiding thefate of civilization. In a tragic example of misperception and misguidance,Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld assured the world of a fast victory inIraq lasting no more than a few weeks. We now know that Rumsfeld’s sin, basedon distorted evidence and reasoning, has cost—and continues to cost—UnitedStates dearly in what has been the Edsel of all wars! A good futurist has the ability to assess data and identifyinherent patterns. Therefore, pattern recognition is aprimary component in the learning process and a necessity in projecting thefuture. Below is an opportunity to test yourskills at being a futurologist. Study the four sequences below and predict thenumber or letter that will fill the blank: (1) 13 –26 – 39 – 52 – 65 – ___ (2) C – F– I – L – O – R – ___ (3) 7 –3 – B – 16 – 2 – 9 – C – 0 – 4 – H – 1 – 1 – ___ (4) 3 –1 – 4 – 1 – 5 – 9 – 2 – 6 – ___ Answers only become obvious after weobserve a recognizable pattern. In sequence (1), the pattern reveals that eachnew number is derived by adding 13 to the previous number. In sequence (2) thepattern represents listing every third letter in the alphabet. If your answersfor (1) and (2) were respectively, 78 and U, congratulations—you have seeninto the future! However, problems arise in predicting thefuture in sequence (3) because, apparently, there is neither rhyme nor reason tothe pattern. Consequently, any answer you use to fill in the blank, bydefinition, represents an outright guess. Because this is a random equation,philosophically, any guess can be either right or wrong—and, as befitting aquantum Universe, the accuracy of that guess is dependent, of course, upon the observer. For most readers, sequence (4) might seemto be yet another random sequence. Surprisingly, the answer is 5. Perhaps you were sufficiently astute to haverecognized this apparent non-pattern as the specific sequence of numbers that representthe mathematical formula for Pi ( p ). Equation(4), therefore, underscores a relevant concern for futurologists, that is, somecomponents of Nature that appear to be random are actually chaotic in that they possess an underlying, butas yet, unrecognized pattern. This simple exercise illustrates threefundamentally important points concerning futurology: First, if a pattern canbe recognized, then the accuracy of predicting a future event is relativelyhigh. Second, if events are found to be random, then all predictions areessentially guesses with an accuracy based on chance. Third, the apparentabsence of a pattern does not imply the absence of a pattern. Some patterns areobvious, some patterns not readily recognizable, and some things simply don’thave a pattern! Survival is dependent on patternrecognition. As a primal example, humankind’s early knowledge of Nature’sfundamental patterns included the day-night cycle, the lunar cycle, and thesidereal yearly cycle with four seasons. The ability to observe and forecastcelestial patterns was fundamental to the development of agriculture andfurther evolution of civilization because this awareness provided humans with themeans and motivation to plan future actions, such as planting crops in thespring then harvesting and storing food for the coming winter. Likewise, early human cultures were ableto connect the biological patterns of birth, growth, and death with the planet’scyclic seasonal patterns. These patterns were so important to survival, thatcivilizations built great edifices and temples, such as Stonehenge and theIncan Sun Temple at Machu Picchu, to observe and mark the transit of the sun,moon and stars. Today, the calendar serves as ourmonument to these daily, seasonal and yearly patterns. With a calendar, aperson anywhere in the world can know, for example, the propagation season for turtleslaying their eggs on a Galapagos beach or the day swallows return toCapistrano. When early humans connected astronomicalpatterns with patterns of human behavior, they recognized a link betweenEarth’s cycles and human physiology. For example, the fact that the lunar cycleand a woman’s menstrual cycle are each 28 days long is not a coincidence. This link between the heavens and humanbiology and behavior led ancient societies to found the science and art of astrology.The practice in astrology of observing patterns and predicting human behaviorproved to be so valuable that, from earliest recorded history to the presentday, government rulers and leaders have consulted with astrologers to divinethe future of their nations. With the introduction of new cultural information, perceived astruths, that was proffered by the monotheists and, later, by the scientificmaterialists, civilization’s awareness of Earth arts receded first into historyand, over time, into myth. Science today considers these ancient practices asbeliefs that are simply beyond the laws of Nature. And our currentscience-based society totally dismisses the ancient divining arts of seeinginto the future as primitive metaphysical rituals. But perhaps, as new-edge science isrevealing, these Earth practices are only beyond the limited vision ofconventional scientists who still perceive the world through the flawed lensesof the four myth-perceptions. Fortunately, we have among us aboriginal descendentswho are still able to speak the language of the planet. But, the populations ofthese Earth stewards are rapidly diminishing, so we must act quickly to ensurethat their wisdom will not be lost. The character of today’s civilization isprimarily shaped by what scientific materialism presents as paradigmatic truths,which are really the beliefs originally adopted after Darwin introduced hisversion of evolution theory in the mid-19th century. In spite of their inherentfaults, these perceived scientific truths, nonetheless, provided an importantconceptual framework that enabled the development of technology and the growthof civilization. But while these flawed beliefs once provided the miracles ofour modern world, their shortcomings are a threat to human survival today. The critical problems currently facinghumanity are symptoms that reflect our inability to project into the future.Like a wayward rocket, civilization has been careening from one disaster toanother, showing itself to be a forceful vector with no intentional direction. Conventional wisdom is a contributingfactor to history’s erratic and often calamitous course. While this commonly acceptedform of reasoning is used to envision patterns and project futures, it can alsobe distorted by faulty perceptions, especially when an accurate awareness ofenergy fields, genetic determinism and the nature of evolution is required. Therefore, in order to accurately seewhere we are going, we must first understand the patterns of how we got here.However, when consulting conventional science about inherent patterns inevolution, we must recognize that limiting Darwinian beliefs concerning randomevolution will profoundly distort their answers. How does conventional science explain howwe got here? Oh—through billions of years of gradual evolution driven byrandom mutations and genetic accidents. So, if that’s how we got here, then canwe predict about evolution will take us? Perhaps on a joy ride . . . to Hell? Seriously, if evolution is driven byrandom, unpatterned events, how can anyone predict where we are going? Anyprediction, by definition, would be a sheer guess. For example, consider thefact that when the home computer rage first hit the public, futurists projectedthat, in the centuries ahead, humans would evolve smaller bodies and biggerheads from sitting at computer terminals all day. But if we look at the currentepidemic in obesity and dwindling intelligence, we see that that prediction wasan Edsel of a guess!
标签: 未来学
