刚在 王庆林那里 看到了《人民日报》网站的一个链接：“ 美刊：中国因三点赶不上美国 ”，这个“摘译”漏掉了中国未来最为关键的因素——人口因素，即计划生育造成的中国人口结构危机使得中国没有什么美好的前景。 原文段落是 ： And things are only likely to get worse for China. Because of the one-child policy, China will soon suffer the most severe aging process in human history. The ratio of Chinese workers per retiree will plummet from 8:1 today to 2:1 by 2040. The fiscal cost of this swing in dependency ratios alone may exceed 100 percent of China’s GDP. The American working-age population, by contrast, will expand by 17 percent over the next 40 years. America’s fiscal future may not be bright, but it is brighter than China’s. 【翻译：——对中国而言还有雪上加霜的一条。由于一胎化政策，中国很快就要承受人类历史上最严重的老龄化过程。中国劳动人员和退休人员的比例将从现在的8比1暴跌到2040年的2比1。仅仅这种抚养比的变化，就可能使得财政成本超过中国100%的GDP。相比之下，美国未来40年的劳动人口会增加17%（译注：美国的比例到2040年是2.68比1，见 美国国会报告CRS-15页 ）。美国财政的未来可能并不光明，但是比中国的光明。】 不知道中国媒体漏译这一段有什么意义，“吾谁欺，欺天乎？”
前一篇文章讲的是发在国外的地震文章否定了中国至今仍未放弃的地震预报事业，算是“中国地震学”内外有别。这一篇讲“中国人口学”的内外有别（本人早说过，人口控制论、中医、地震预报是当代三大官办伪科学，所以表现相似也不奇怪）。 《科学》这一期是人口学专辑。《科学》(Science)是美国科学促进会（AAAS）主办的杂志，AAAS有极强的自由左派 （liberal leftist） 意识形态( http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2011/04/analysis-of-nisbet-report-part-ii.html )，一些文章倾向于环保左派观点，比如倾向于反坝（曾在2008年刊登过紫坪铺水库引发汶川地震的报导、2009年刊登过韩国反坝行动的报导）、渲染全球变暖（比如气候门丑闻之后刊登美国250多名院士支持气候变暖结论的文章——并且配了一幅伪造的北极熊照片）、渲染人口过剩和资源危机。不过即使如此，去年还是刊登了对中国计划生育政策起源和效果进行批评的一组文章。而这一期专辑文章的基调虽然是渲染人口压力，仍然包含了一篇评价中国计生效果的一篇文章，提到了中国人口未来面临的挑战： Xizhe Peng：China’s Demographic History and Future Challenges 这个作者彭希哲留学英国学习人口学，现在复旦大学。对于中国的人口学研究者该如何评价，请参见易富贤的文章。彭希哲这篇文章的结论是： Demographic changes in China will have important global impacts. Given all of the factors discussed above, a future population decline may be desirable for China. But rapid or even sudden population decline would be disastrous, and it would be very difficult to stop. Maintaining the present low fertility would be worrisome. Overall, it would be rational for China to modify its current population policy and to relax the rigid control on childbearing sooner rather than later, and to allow the TFR to grow and be maintained at around 1.8 in the near future. Then the country’s population would decline and its aging process would be slower in the future, which would provide more time and a better social environment for China to cope with future population-related socioeconomic changes. China’s population issues should be dealt with in an integrated and balanced way. （译：中国的人口变化对世界有重要影响。按照上述讨论的因素，将来人口的降低对中国可能是必须的。但是快速的、甚至突然的人口降低会是灾难性的，而且这种降低很难停止。继续保持现有的低生育率【译注：即第六次人口普查再次印证的不到1.5的总和生育率】值得担忧。总之，中国理性的做法是，尽早而不拖延地修改现行的人口政策、放松严格的生育控制，容许总和生育率的上升，在近期维持在1.8左右【译注：现在中国人口是一半城市一半农村，考虑到生活压力，城市即使放开平均生育率也不过是1，而如果想达到全国平均1.8的生育率，则农村必须达到2.6，这怎么可能】。这样的话，中国的人口会降低，而老龄化过程在未来会减缓，这会为中国处理未来与人口有关的社会经济变化提供更多的时间和更好的社会环境。中国的人口问题应该用整体和平衡的方法来处理。） 看到了吧，官拜“国家人口与计划生育委员会人口专家委员会委员”的彭希哲可以到科学上发文章呼吁尽早而不拖延地放松人口政策（如上所述，任何人如果诚心希望中国总和生育率回到1.8，必须承认只能彻底废除计划生育政策），而六次人口普查之后，主管部门和人口专家面对彻底暴露的中国人口灾难前景，却一直处于“不战不和不守、不降不死不走”的假死状态（典故见 http://news.china.com/zh_cn/history/all/11025807/20051212/12937977.html ）。这就是内外有别的中国人口学。
Communiqué of the National Bureau of Statistics of People's Republic of China on Major Figures of the 2010 Population Census (No. 1) April 28, 2011 In accordance with the Regulations on National Population Census and the Circular of the State Council on the Conduct of the 6th National Population Census,Chinacarried out its 6th national population census with zero hour of November 1, 2010 as the reference time . The field enumeration of the census has been successfully completed through the leadership of the State Council and governments at all levels, the support and cooperation from people of various nationalities, and the painstaking efforts and hard work of nearly 10 million census workers. Results on major figures obtained through advance tabulation are released as follows: I. Total Population Total population ofChinawas 1370536875 persons. Of which: The population of the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities and of servicemen on the mainland ofChinathrough census enumeration was 1339724852 persons. The population of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region was 7097600 persons. The population of Macao Special Administrative Region was 552300 persons. The population ofTaiwan was 23162123 persons. II. Population Growth Compared with the population of 1265825048 from the 2000 population census (zero hour of November 1, 2000), the total population of the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities and the servicemen of the mainland of China increased by 73899804 persons, or 5.84 percent over the past 10 years. The average annual growth rate was 0.57 percent. III. Population of Family Households In the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities of the mainland ofChina, there were 401517330 family households with a population of 1244608395 persons. The average size of family household was 3.10 persons, or 0.34 person less as compared with the 3.44 persons in the 2000 population census. IV. Sex Composition Of the population enumerated in the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities and servicemen of the mainland ofChina, 686852572 persons or 51.27 percent were males, while 652872280 persons or 48.73 percent were females. The sex ratio (female=100) declined from 106.74 to 105.20. V. Age Composition Of the population enumerated in the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities and servicemen of the mainland of China, 222459737 persons were in the age group of 0-14, accounting for 16.60 percent of the total population; 939616410 persons in the age group of 15-59, accounting for 70.14 percent, and 177648705 persons in the age group of 60 and over, accounting for 13.26 percent, of which 118831709 persons were in the age group of 65 and over, accounting for 8.87 percent. As compared with the results of the 2000 population census, the share of people in the age group of 0-14 was down by 6.29 percentage points, that of the age group of 15-59 was up by 3.36 percentage points, that of the age group of 60 and over was up by 2.93 percentage points, and that of the age group of 65 and over was up by 1.91 percentage points. VI. Composition of Nationalities Of the population enumerated in the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities and servicemen of the mainland ofChina, 1225932641 persons or 91.51 percent were of Han nationality, and 113792211 persons or 8.49 percent were of various national minorities. Compared with the 2000 population census, the population of Han nationality increased by 66537177 persons, or 5.74 percent; while the population of various national minorities increased by 7362627 persons, or 6.92 percent. VII. Composition of Educational Attainment Of the population enumerated in the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities and servicemen of the mainland of China, 119636790 persons had finished university education (referring to junior college and above); 187985979 persons had received senior secondary education (including secondary technical school education); 519656445 persons had received junior secondary education and 358764003 persons had primary education (the persons with various educational attainment included graduates and students in schools). Compared with the 2000 population census, following changes had taken place in the number of people with various educational attainments of every 100,000 people: number of people with university education increased from 3611 to 8930; number of people with senior secondary education increased from 11146 to 14032; number of people with junior secondary education increased from 33961 to 38788; and number of people with primary education decreased from 35701 to 26779. Of the population enumerated in the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities and servicemen of the mainland ofChina, 54656573 persons were illiterate (i.e. people over 15 years of age who can not read). Compared with the 2000 population census, the size of illiterate population dropped by 30413094 persons, and the illiterate rate declined from 6.72 percent to 4.08 percent, or down by 2.64 percentage points. VIII. Urban and Rural Population Of the population enumerated in the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities and servicemen of the mainland ofChina, 665575306 persons were urban residents , accounting for 49.68 percent; and 674149546 persons were rural residents, accounting for 50.32 percent. Compared with the 2000 population census, the number of urban residents increased by 207137093 persons, and the number of rural residents dropped by 133237289 persons. The proportion of urban residents rose by 13.46 percentage points. IX. Migration of Population Of the population enumerated in the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities and servicemen of the mainland ofChina, 261386075 persons lived in places other than the towns (townships or streets) of their household registration where they had left for over 6 months. Of this total, 39959423 were persons with current residence different from the place of their household registration in the same city , and the remaining were 221426652 persons. Compared with the 2000 population census, population in this category increased by 116995327 persons, or up by 81.03 percent. X. Error of Enumeration After field enumeration, a total of 402 enumeration blocks were randomly selected to conduct post-enumeration survey, resulting in a population undercount rate of 0.12 percent. Notes: 1. All figures in the Communiqué are preliminary results. 2. The population census covers all natural persons residing in the territory of the People's Republic of China and the Chinese citizens residing outside but not permanently settled down in locations beyond the territory of the People’s Republic of China at the census reference time, excluding residents of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and foreigners temporarily staying in the territory of the People’s Republic of China. Territory here refers to the territory of the customs. 3. The population of the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities and servicemen on the mainland ofChinadoes not include residents ofHong Kong,MacaoandTaiwanand foreigners staying in the territory of the People’s Republic ofChinaat the time of the census. 4. Population of Hong Kong SAR refers to data at the end of 2010 provided by Hong Kong SAR government. 5. Population of Macao SAR refers to data at the end of 2010 provided by Macao SAR government. 6. Population ofTaiwanrefers to population at the end of 2010 released by relevant authorities ofTaiwan. 7. Population of family households refer to households consists of persons, bonded by family relations, staying under the same roof and sharing living arrangement. 8. Illiterate rate refers to the population over 15 years of age who can not read divided by the population of the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities and servicemen on the mainland ofChina. 9. Urban and rural population refer to population living in urban or rural areas within the territory of China, which are classified based on Regulation on Statistical Classification of Urban and Rural Areas issued by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2008. 10. Persons with current residence different from the place of their household registration in the same city refer to persons in a city whose current residence is one town or street when their household registration is in another town or street of the same municipality or prefecture-level city 2010 年第六次全国人口普查主要数据公报 （第 1 号） 中华人民共和国国家统计局 2011 年 4 月 28 日 根据《全国人口普查条例》和《国务院关于开展第六次全国人口普查的通知》，我国以 2010 年 11 月 1 日 零时为标准时点进行了第六次全国人口普查 。在国务院和地方各级人民政府的统一领导下，在全体普查对象的支持配合下，通过广大普查工作人员的艰苦努力，目前已圆满完成人口普查任务。现将快速汇总的主要数据公布如下： 一、 总人口 全国总人口为 1370536875 人。其中： 普查登记的大陆 31 个省、自治区、直辖市和现役军人的人口 共 1339724852 人。 香港特别行政区人口 为 7097600 人。 澳门特别行政区人口 为 552300 人。 台湾地区人口 为 23162123 人。 二、人口增长 大陆 31 个省、自治区、直辖市和现役军人的人口，同第五次全国人口普查 2000 年 11 月 1 日 零时的 1265825048 人相比，十年共增加 73899804 人，增长 5.84% ，年平均增长率为 0.57% 。 三、家庭户人口 大陆 31 个省、自治区、直辖市共有家庭户 401517330 户，家庭户人口为 1244608395 人，平均每个家庭户的人口为 3.10 人，比 2000 年第五次全国人口普查的 3.44 人减少 0.34 人。 四、性别构成 大陆 31 个省、自治区、直辖市和现役军人的人口中，男性人口为 686852572 人，占 51.27% ；女性人口为 652872280 人，占 48.73% 。总人口性别比（以女性为 100 ，男性对女性的比例）由 2000 年第五次全国人口普查的 106.74 下降为 105.20 。 五、年龄构成 大陆 31 个省、自治区、直辖市和现役军人的人口中， 0-14 岁人口为 222459737 人，占 16.60% ； 15-59 岁人口为 939616410 人，占 70.14% ； 60 岁及以上人口为 177648705 人，占 13.26% ，其中 65 岁及以上人口为 118831709 人，占 8.87% 。同 2000 年第五次全国人口普查相比， 0-14 岁人口的比重下降 6.29 个百分点， 15-59 岁人口的比重上升 3.36 个百分点， 60 岁及以上人口的比重上升 2.93 个百分点， 65 岁及以上人口的比重上升 1.91 个百分点。 六、民族构成 大陆 31 个省、自治区、直辖市和现役军人的人口中，汉族人口为 1225932641 人，占 91.51% ；各少数民族人口为 113792211 人，占 8.49% 。同 2000 年第五次全国人口普查相比，汉族人口增加 66537177 人，增长 5.74% ；各少数民族人口增加 7362627 人，增长 6.92% 。 七、各种受教育程度人口 大陆 31 个省、自治区、直辖市和现役军人的人口中，具有大学（指大专以上）文化程度的人口为 119636790 人；具有高中（含中专）文化程度的人口为 187985979 人；具有初中文化程度的人口为 519656445 人；具有小学文化程度的人口为 358764003 人（以上各种受教育程度的人包括各类学校的毕业生、肄业生和在校生）。 同 2000 年第五次全国人口普查相比，每 10 万人中具有大学文化程度的由 3611 人上升为 8930 人；具有高中文化程度的由 11146 人上升为 14032 人；具有初中文化程度的由 33961 人上升为 38788 人；具有小学文化程度的由 35701 人下降为 26779 人。 大陆 31 个省、自治区、直辖市和现役军人的人口中，文盲人口（ 15 岁及以上不识字的人）为 54656573 人，同 2000 年第五次全国人口普查相比，文盲人口减少 30413094 人，文盲率 由 6.72% 下降为 4.08% ，下降 2.64 个百分点。 八、城乡人口 大陆 31 个省、自治区、直辖市和现役军人的人口中，居住在城镇的人口 为 665575306 人，占 49.68% ；居住在乡村的人口为 674149546 人，占 50.32% 。同 2000 年第五次全国人口普查相比，城镇人口增加 207137093 人，乡村人口减少 133237289 人，城镇人口比重上升 13.46 个百分点。 九、人口的流动 大陆 31 个省、自治区、直辖市的人口中，居住地与户口登记地所在的乡镇街道不一致且离开户口登记地半年以上的人口为 261386075 人，其中市辖区内人户分离的人口 为 39959423 人，不包括市辖区内人户分离的人口为 221426652 人。同 2000 年第五次全国人口普查相比，居住地与户口登记地所在的乡镇街道不一致且离开户口登记地半年以上的人口增加 116995327 人，增长 81.03% 。 十、登记误差 普查登记结束后，全国统一随机抽取 402 个普查小区进行了事后质量抽样调查。抽查结果显示，人口漏登率为 0.12% 。 注释： 本公报中数据均为初步汇总数。 普查登记的对象是指普查标准时点在中华人民共和国境内的自然人以及在中华人民共和国境外但未定居的中国公民，不包括在中华人民共和国境内短期停留的港澳台居民和外籍人员。“境内”指我国海关关境以内，“境外”指我国海关关境以外。 大陆 31 个省、自治区、直辖市和现役军人的人口数据不包括居住在境内的港澳台居民和外籍人员。 香港特别行政区的人口数为香港特别行政区政府提供的 2010 年底的数据。 澳门特别行政区的人口数为澳门特别行政区政府提供的 2010 年底的数据。 台湾地区的人口数为台湾地区有关主管部门公布的 2010 年底的户籍登记人口数据。 家庭户是指以家庭成员关系为主、居住一处共同生活的人组成的户。 文盲率是指大陆 31 个省、自治区、直辖市和现役军人的人口中 15 岁及以上不识字人口所占比重。 城乡人口是指居住在我国境内城镇、乡村地域上的人口，城镇、乡村是按 2008 年国家统计局《统计上划分城乡的规定》划分的。 市辖区内人户分离的人口是指一个直辖市或地级市所辖的区内和区与区之间，居住地和户口登记地不在同一乡镇街道的人口。
标签: 老龄化
