从 2013 年年末开始，以基孔肯雅、寨卡、黄热病、登革热、西尼罗河等虫媒传染病开始在西半球活跃，引起了全球的广泛关注。 2013 年，基孔肯雅病毒和寨卡病毒被认为首先出现在西半球，这两种病毒影响许多拉丁美洲和加勒比海地区的人，也直接威胁着美国。 2013 年底，基孔肯雅病毒首次出现在加勒比海圣马丁岛上，并从那以后扩散到美洲的绝大部分地区。 2013-2014 年在大洋洲的法属波利尼西亚岛屿上发生了一次较大的寨卡病毒流行，感染了约 32000 人。基因分析研究表明， 2015 年发生在南美洲的寨卡病毒可能是在 2013 年 5 月和 12 月之间首次进入美洲，随后在整个拉丁美洲和加勒比海地区扩散。从 2016 年 12 月开始在巴西爆发的黄热病疫情是近几十年来最严重的一次，疫情集中在丛林和农村地区，城市中并未发现疫情。巴西全国共出现黄热病 777 例，死亡 261 例。从南美洲到南亚，世界多个国家在 2013 年爆发登革热疫情。 2011-2013 年泛美卫生组织分别报告登革热病例 1093252 例， 1120902 例， 2386836 例，发病率分别为 208.8/10 万、 214.1/10 万、 455.9/10 万， 2013 年的发病率是明显高于前两年。 2016 年 12 月到 2017 年 8 月，巴西全国共出现黄热病 777 例，死亡 261 例。此次疫情主要集中在丛林和农村地区，并且是几十年来最严重的一次。 Peter Hotez 在一项研究中报道在欧洲南部出现的同样令人担忧的局面，已经观察到虫媒病毒感染如登革热病毒、基孔肯雅病毒和西尼罗河病毒感染在增加。 尽管五种虫媒病毒感染在西半球快速传播令人印象深刻，但是这些疾病为什么会突然大幅增加的原因仍然不是很清楚。 PLOS Neglected Tropical Diaseases 期刊主编 Peter Hotez指出一种奇怪的“新常态”可能正在热带感染性疾病中发生。为了弄明白这一点，我们将需要抛弃我们的学术孤岛（academic silos，即学术上相互隔离，不进行合作和沟通）和舒适地带，与新领域的科学家们合作，以便解决这些新的现象。 Peter Hotez 在早些时候发布的研究中提出人类活动产生的新力量，包括气候变化、森林砍伐、城市化和贫穷，可能是重要的影响因素 . 。近些年来，尽管通过广泛的药物服用和其他的方法，在预防和治疗疟疾等一些被忽视的热带疾病中取得重大进展，但是整体上看主要的媒介传播的被忽视热带疾病显著增加。我们的研究发现 2013 年开始出现的五种虫媒传染病的大幅增加与西半球急剧减弱的地磁场的分布高度一致。以前的研究表明，蚊虫是一种对磁场敏感的昆虫，磁场的减弱能够增加蚊虫的繁殖速度和空间密度。从 2013 年年末出现的五种虫媒传染病主要是通过蚊虫叮咬传播的，西半球地磁场的快速减弱很可能促进蚊虫密度的增加，进而加速这些虫媒传染病传染病的快速传播。 Weakened Magnetic Field and the Resurgence of Mosquito-Borne Arboviruses Jiangwen Qu 1 and Chandra Wickramasinghe N 2,3,4* 1 Department of Infectious Disease Control, Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, China 2 Buckingham Centre for Astrobiology, University of Buckingham, UK. 3 Sri Lanka Centre for Astrobiology, University of Ruhuna, Sri Lanka 4 General Sir John KotelawalaDefence University, Sri Lanka * Corresponding Author: Chandra Wickramasinghe N, Buckingham Centre for Astrobiology, University of Buckingham, UK Short Commentary Five epidemics of mosquito-borne arboviruses- Zika virus (ZIKV), Dengue virus (DENV), Yellow Fevervirus (YFV), West Nile virus (WNV) and Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) have emerged in the Western Hemisphere, particularly in South America since late 2013. The reason we are seeing such a sudden, sharp rise in these mosquito-borne arboviruses is unknown. Although climate change, mass human migrations and poor hygiene are often cited as primary causes for the sudden resurgence, it is likely that a more fundamental cause exists, and its discovery could have a profound effect in determining future public health strategy . In June 2014, after just six months collecting data, ESA’s Swarm programme confirmed the general trend of the magnetic field’s weakening, with the most dramatic declines over the Western Hemisphere; but in other areas, such as the southern Indian Ocean, the magnetic field had strengthened since January (Figure 1). Figure 1: Changes in Earth’s magnetic field from January to June 2014 as measured by the Swarm constellation of satellites. Shades of red represent areas of strengthening, while blues show areas of weakening over the 6-month period. New data released by the European Space Agency (ESA) reveals that our geomagnetic field is weakening by around 5% a year, which is nearly ten times faster than previous estimates . Furthermore, this effect is not uniform over the Earth; the field is weakening faster in some places than others. For example, the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) is a large depression of the Earth's magnetic field characterized by values of geomagnetic field intensity that are around 30% lower than expected for those latitudes. This region covers a large area in the South Atlantic Ocean and South America. According to Swarm satellite monitoring results, Earth's magnetic poles may be getting ready to flip, the field has weakened by about 3.5% at high latitudes over North America, while it has strengthened about 2% over Asia . The region where the field is weakest – the South Atlantic Anomaly – has moved steadily westward and weakened further by about 2% between 1999 and May 2016 . Previous studies have suggested that the mosquito is an insect sensitive to the magnetic field, and the weakening of the magnetic field may have increased the mosquito's reproductive speed and spatial density . The currently emerging arbovirus epidemics in the past four years are mostly transmitted to humans by bites from mosquitos vectors. The rapid weakening of Earth's magnetic field in the Western Hemisphere probably speeded up an increase in the population of mosquitoes thus promoting the rapid spread of these mosquito-borne arboviruses. Thus, we make the bold suggestion that a surveillance of magnetic field may serve as a potential warning of future mosquito-borne arboviruses. Together with other epidemiological data such information might prove to be a useful factor for strategic disease control planning of mosquito-borne arboviruses. Acknowledgements Data on the number of Earth’s magnetic field were provided by European Space Agency (ESA) http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/Swarm/Swarm_reveals_Earth_s_changing_magnetism Author contributions These authors contributed equally to this work. Competing Interests The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. References Hotez PJ (2016) Southern Europe’s Coming Plagues: Vector-Borne Neglected Tropical Diseases. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 10: 1-6. Christopher F, Nils O, Stavros K, et al. (2016) Recent geomagnetic secular variation from Swarm and ground observatories as estimated in the CHAOS‑6 geomagnetic field model. Earth, Planets and Space 68: 112 Pavón-Carrasco, F. Javier; De Santis, Angelo. The South Atlantic Anomaly: The Key for a Possible Geomagnetic Reversal. Frontiers in Earth Science 4:40. http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/Swarm/Earth_s_magnetic_heartbeat Pan H, Liu X (2004) Apparent Biological Effect of Strong Magnetic Field on Mosquito Egg Hatching. Bioelectromagnetics 25: 84-91. http://sciencetxt.org/open_access/weakened_magnetic_field_and_the_resurgence_of_mosquito_borne_arboviruses_IDI IDI-2-103 (2).pdf 关注多种媒介传播的被忽视热带疾病 来源：生物谷 2016-07-10 21:03 2016年7月10日/生物谷BIOON/-- 作为 PLOS Neglected Tropical Diaseases 期刊的共同主编，Peter Hotez和Serap Aksoy关注着全世界近期不断增加的多种媒介传播的被忽视热带疾病（neglected tropical disease, NTD）。 2013年，基孔肯雅病毒和寨卡病毒被认为首先出现在西半球，如今在那里，这两种病毒影响许多拉丁美洲和加勒比海地区的人，而且也威胁着美国。 2013年底，基孔肯雅病毒首次出现在加勒比海圣马丁岛上，从那以后扩散到美洲的绝大部分地区，包括今年在美国德克萨斯州报道的首例输入性感染病例。 类似地，分子钟研究表明寨卡病毒可能是在2013年5月和12月之间首次进入美洲，随后在整个拉丁美洲和加勒比海地区扩散，而且令人担忧的是，在今年夏天晚些时候，寨卡病毒可能开始传播到美国本土。 更令人担忧的是，今年4月份，美国疾病防治中心（CDC）首次声称是寨卡病毒（ZIKV）导致小头畸形和其他的出生缺陷，而不再猜测它们之间可能存在关联，并建议孕妇或者计划怀孕的女性最好不要前往寨卡病毒仍在传播的国家和地区。此外，美国CDC报道了一例ZIKV感染病例是男同性恋之间通过肛交进行传播的。 同样是在今年4月份，法国研究人员证实寨卡病毒（ZIKV）能够通过性接触进行传播。他们的分析表明在巴西感染上这种病毒的一名男子体内存在的病毒与从未到ZIKV流行病发生区域旅游但与这名男性发生性关系的一名女性体内存在的ZIKV存在100%的遗传相关性。 此外，在今年3月，研究人员在一项发表在 Lancet 期刊上的研究中，发现更多证据表明寨卡病毒感染还会引起一些病人发生暂时性瘫痪：古兰-巴雷综合征（GBS, Guillain-Barre syndrome）。最近拉丁美洲发生突发性瘫痪的病人出现增加，专家认为这与寨卡病毒爆发有关，而该研究的数据则进一步支持了这一理论。 而在今年6月份，来自美国华盛顿大学和科罗拉多大学等机构的研究人员发现最为严重的西尼罗河病毒（West Nile virus, WNV）感染并不杀死神经元，但会激活小胶质细胞和补体途径，这有助抵抗这种感染但最终会破坏突触，导致突触减少，从而最终导致一些WNV感染者出现记忆丧失和情感障碍等症状，从而为开发出治疗这种蚊子传播疾病的新疗法开辟新的道路。 尽管这些虫媒病毒感染在西半球快速传播令人印象深刻，但是这个月，Peter Hotez在一项研究中报道在欧洲南部出现的同样令人担忧的局面：在那里，最近几年，我们也观察到虫媒病毒感染如登革热病毒、基孔肯雅病毒和西尼罗河病毒感染在增加，除此之外，还观察到利什曼病（由利什曼原虫引起的人畜共患病）和甚至血吸虫病（通过钉螺进行传播）在增加。 确实，尽管通过广泛的药物服用和其他的方法，在预防和治疗疟疾和一些被忽视的热带疾病中取得重大进展，但是整体上，我们还是观察到主要的媒介传播的被忽视热带疾病显著增加。 我们观察到这些热带感染性疾病在增加的原因仍是不清楚的。在另一项今年早些时候发布的研究中，Peter Hotez提出人类活动产生的新力量，包括气候变化、森林砍伐、城市化和贫穷，可能是重要的因素。 因此，从中学到的教训是为了理解复杂的事件，如在拉丁美洲和欧洲发生的媒介传播的被忽视热带疾病增加，我们将需要考虑在对热带感染性疾病感兴趣的生物医学科学家、包括经济学家和人类学家在内的社会科学家和对环境感兴趣的地球科学家之间建立新的跨学科对话。 在早前的一项研究中，Peter Hotez指出一种奇怪的“新常态”可能正在热带感染性疾病中发生。为了弄明白这一点，我们将需要抛弃我们的学术孤岛（academic silos，即学术上相互隔离，不进行合作和沟通）和舒适地带，与新领域的科学家们合作，以便解决这些新的现象。 本着这种精神，美国国家科学基金会（US National Science Foundation）如今发起一项新的传染病生态学与进化（Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases, EEID）计划。 这是一个好的开始！（生物谷 Bioon.com） 参考资料： 【1】 What's with these vector-borne neglected tropical diseases? 【2】Neglected Tropical Diseases in the Anthropocene: The Cases of Zika, Ebola, and Other Infections PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases , doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004648 【3】Southern Europe's Coming Plagues: Vector-Borne Neglected Tropical Diseases PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases , doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004243 【4】Zika virus in the Americas: Early epidemiological and genetic findings Science , doi: 10.1126/science.aaf5036 【5】 Nature：揭示西尼罗河病毒感染导致病人记忆丧失机制 【6】 【盘点】不要错过的寨卡病毒研究进展汇总 【7】Evidence of Sexual Transmission of Zika Virus New England Journal of Medicine , doi: 10.1056/NEJMc1604449 【8】Zika Virus as a Cause of Neurologic Disorders New England Journal of Medicine , doi: 10.1056/NEJMp1602708 【9】Why does Zika leave some patients paralyzed? Science , doi: 10.1126/science.aaf4144 http://news.bioon.com/article/6685391.html
关键提示： 世界卫生组织认为，流感大流行属于不可预测但又可重复发生的事件，可对世界范围内的卫生，经济和社会造成严重影响。当关键因素出现交集时，就会发生流感大流行。流感和寨卡病毒大流行的出现属于全球极端事件，并且发生在特定年份，所以从理论上推测这些年份必然出现了某些极端环境因素变化，这些环境因素就是空间环境变化如宇宙射线的增强和像厄尔尼诺等大的气候突变，这两大关键因素极有可能在全球引发新发病毒性传染病大流行。 联合国机构称厄尔尼诺现象极可能于2019年重现 2018-11-29 15:08 【环球网科技综合报道】 据英国《卫报》11月27日报道，根据联合国世界气象组织的最新分析，在明年2月之前，能够引发全球气候变暖的厄尔尼诺现象将有75%至80%的概率重返地球。 厄尔尼诺主要指太平洋东部和中部的热带海洋的海水温度异常地持续变暖，这种现象每隔几年就会自然发生一次，对全球气候产生重大影响，造成一些本来干旱的地区降雨量过多，一些本来潮湿的地方则出现干旱。高温还使珊瑚礁发生严重的白化现象。 上一次出现的厄尔尼诺现象于2016年结束，使该年成为有记录以来最热的一年。目前预计2019年来袭的厄尔尼诺现象不会像2016年那样强烈。 世界气象组织气候预测与适应司司长马克斯•迪利(Maxx Dilley)说:“预计这次出现的厄尔尼诺现象不会像2015-2016年的那样强烈。即便如此，它仍然深刻影响着许多地区的降雨和温度模式，对农业和粮食安全、水资源管理和公共卫生产生重要影响。它还可能与长期气候变化结合起来，提高2019年的全球气温。” 此前，美国天气预报员已经发出了厄尔尼诺现象将重现的警告。澳大利亚气象局10月表示，一个干燥炎热的夏季极有可能到来，这增加了热浪和山火的风险。对于已经遭受旱灾的农民来说，气候变化正在加剧厄尔尼诺现象带来的影响。 报道称，数十亿吨的碳排放仍在继续，温室气体浓度达到创纪录水平，这意味着它们的加热效应比以往任何时候都更强。但是新的厄尔尼诺现象是否会导致2019年创造新的纪录还有待观察。(实习编译：吴沛熹 审稿：谭利娅) http://www.xywos.com/article/48024.html WMO Update: 75-80% chance of El Niño within next 3 months 27 November 2018 Press Release Number: 27112018 There is a 75-80% chance of an El Niño developing by February 2019, although it is not expected to be a strong event, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization(WMO). Sea surface temperatures are already at weak El Niño levels in part of the tropical Pacific, although the corresponding atmospheric patterns have not yet materialized. WMO accompanied the El Niño Update with a global seasonal climate update, which indicated that precipitation patterns predicted for December-February resemble those normally associated with El Niño. In some regions the precipitation response has been weak, however, or not in keeping with those typically associated with El Niño. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring phenomenon involving fluctuations of ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, coupled with changes in the overlying atmospheric circulation. It has a major influence on weather and climate patterns over many parts of the world. Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific have been at weak El Niño levels since October 2018. However, the atmosphere has not yet responded to this additional warmth, and the upper level winds, cloud and sea level pressure patterns do not yet reflect typical El Niño features. Model forecasts suggest that this will change within the coming month or two. The chance of a full-fledged El Niño between December 2018 - February 2019 is estimated to be about 75-80%, and about 60% for it to continue through February-April 2019. Model predictions of the strength of the El Niño range from just a warm-neutral condition through to a moderate strength El Niño event, with sea surface temperatures peaking at approximately 0.8 to 1.2 degrees Celsius above average. The chance for a strong event (sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific rising to at least 1.5 degrees Celsius above average) is currently low. “The forecast El Niño is not expected to be as powerful as the event in 2015-2016, which was linked with droughts, flooding and coral bleaching in different parts of the world. Even so, it can still significantly affect rainfall and temperature patterns in many regions, with important consequences to agricultural and food security sectors, and for management of water resources and public health, and it may combine with long-term climate change to boost 2019 global temperatures,” said Maxx Dilley, director of WMO’s Climate Prediction and Adaptation branch. Scientific progress on the understanding and modelling of ENSO, underpinned by major observational programmes and coordinated research initiatives, has improved operational monitoring and prediction capabilities, helping society to prepare for associated hazards such as heavy rains, floods and drought. WMO’s update is based on forecast models and expert interpretation from around the world. It is used by planners within the United Nations system, and complements information issued by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and WMO Regional Climate Centres as a source of information for country-level decision-making by disaster managers, for planning in climate-sensitive sectors, and by governments. Global seasonal climate update WMO’s global seasonal climate update for December 2018 through February 2019 is based on an ensemble of global prediction models run by WMO-accredited centres around the world. It is currently in a trial phase. A tilt of the odds towards above-normal surface-air temperature is forecast in most of Asia, Europe, North America, the Caribbean, Africa, Australia, the Indonesian archipelago, and South America. Exceptions include portions of mainly southern South America, much of southeastern North America, parts of northwestern Europe and part of south-central Asia. Most of the regions with above-normal tendencies also saw above-normal temperatures during August-October 2018. An enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation is predicted in the Caribbean, central America, part of northern South America, the offshore islands of southeast Asia, the southern part of the Indonesian archipelago, some south Pacific islands, portions of southwest Africa and eastern equatorial Africa, subtropical southwest coastal South America and southern South America. Above-normal precipitation is favoured in part of southern North America, part of southeast South America, part of northwest North America, central and northern Asia, part of southwest Asia, part of the eastern Maritime Continent, and part of Europe. Near-normal precipitation is favoured in parts of interior northern tropical Africa. These global forecasts provide predictions of large-scale patterns, which need to be further calibrated and optimized to derive regional and national scale forecasts. WMO Regional Climate Centres, Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services carry out these tasks to provide more detailed outlooks. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months. Notes to Editors El Niño is often associated with warm and dry conditions in southern and eastern inland areas of Australia, as well as Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia and central Pacific islands such as Fiji, Tonga and Papua New Guinea. In northern hemisphere winter, drier than normal conditions are typically observed over south-eastern Africa and northern Brazil. Wetter than normal conditions are typically observed along the Gulf Coast of the United States, the west coast of tropical South America (Colombia, Ecuador and Peru) and from southern Brazil to central Argentina. Parts of eastern Africa and southernmost parts of South Asia also usually receive above-normal rainfall. El Niño is associated with milder winters in north-western Canada and Alaska due to fewer cold air surges from the Arctic – a result of a large-scale region of lower pressure centred on the Gulf of Alaska/ North Pacific Ocean. It is important to stress that these are typical effects – not specific forecasts – and that actual conditions vary according to the strength and timing of the El Niño event. Other factors (such as the Indian Ocean Dipole or the North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation) can also have an important influence on seasonal climate. Global-scale seasonal forecasts, including those of precipitation and surface temperature, are routinely produced by WMO accredited centres using sophisticated atmosphere-ocean coupled models, which take into account ENSO as well as other climate drivers. There are now 13 WMO Global Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts, whose products are consolidated by a Lead Centre of Long Range Forecast Multi Model Ensemble https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-update-75-80-chance-of-el-ni%C3%B1o-within-next-3-months What is El Niño? https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/05/what-is-el-nino 厄尔尼诺和宇宙射线将共同决定是否发生流感或寨卡病毒大流行 http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-529903-1125471.html 流感大流行太阳黑子学说的科学解释 http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-529903-1093648.html 为什么说2019年前后会发生一次新的流感大流行？ http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-529903-1093911.html http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-529903-1095552.html 寨卡病毒大流行或与巴西地区突然增强的宇宙射线有关 http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-529903-1122608.html 厄尔尼诺助推寨卡疫情蔓延 2016-12-21 07:53 一项基于流行病学模型开展的新研究19日说，2015年发生的强厄尔尼诺事件助推寨卡疫情在南美大规模暴发。这项研究还预测，美国东南部、中国南部和欧洲南部存在潜在的季节性寨卡传播风险。 英国利物浦大学的研究人员当天在美国《国家科学院学报》上报告说，寨卡病毒主要有两种传播媒介——埃及伊蚊和白纹伊蚊。他们利用流行病学模型分析发现，厄尔尼诺为伊蚊在南美大规模传播寨卡病毒创造了最有利的气候环境，导致伊蚊死亡率降低、叮咬频率提高等后果。 负责研究的利物浦大学的西里尔·卡米纳德说，科学界通常认为寨卡病毒在2013年就从东南亚或太平洋岛屿登陆巴西，“但我们的模型显示，正是与2015年厄尔尼诺事件相关的温度环境在寨卡疫情暴发的过程中发挥了关键作用，而这发生在寨卡病毒进入南美洲大陆约两年之后”。 卡米纳德说，除了厄尔尼诺外，其他导致南美寨卡疫情的关键因素还包括旅行与贸易导致的风险、寨卡病毒毒株的毒性以及与登革病毒等病毒的交叉感染等。（记者林小春） http://www.sohu.com/a/122141066_114731 http://world.huanqiu.com/hot/2016-12/9835799.html Article: Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role of El Niño 2015 , Caminade C, J. Turner, S. Metelmannb, J.C. Hessona, M. Blagrovea, T. Solomon, A.P. Morse, M. Baylis, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , doi: 10.1073/pnas.1614303114, published online 19 December 2016. Global risk model for vector-borne transmission of Zika virus reveals the role o.pdf 2016年2月20日《The Lancet》刊载的一项研究，探讨了气候变化对寨卡病毒传播的影响。 在前不久的一篇Letter中，Isaac I Bogoch及其同事预料寨卡病毒将通过空中交通从巴西扩散到全世界。适合斑蚊生长繁殖的气候条件，可能是寨卡病毒在巴西迅速蔓延的原因。事实上，2015年厄尔尼诺现象导致了南半球南美洲东北部地区的特殊气候。根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局发布的数据，整个2015年下半年南美洲北部和东部的温度为“史上最高”，同时伴随着严重干旱。这些导致寨卡病毒迅速传播的极端条件，可能是气候变化的一种表现形式。 研究者们将某个月出现极端气候条件的区域与下个月的寨卡病毒地理分布区对照时，看到区域产生了明显的重叠。温度可以影响成年媒介生物的生存、病毒复制和传染期，这是已知事实。温度升高（在一个温度范围内）可以扩大媒介生物的地理分布范围，减少病原体的外潜伏期，提高母蚊叮咬率。尽管在斑蚊生命周期的水生阶段，降雨为其幼虫提供必要的生境，但干旱可以直接扩大媒介生物的栖身范围。在几个区域中（包括巴西东北部），埃及斑蚊栖身范围扩大的风险与地区持续干旱期间家庭储水量的增大具有相关性。因此，这个严重的厄尔尼诺事件造成的独特气候条件，应被视为寨卡病毒在美洲传播的促成因素，而且随着病毒的不断传播，应予以重视。 原文出处：Paz S,Semenza JC. El Niño and climate change--contributing factors in the dispersalof Zika virus in the Americas? .Lancet. 2016 Feb 20;387(10020):745. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(16)00256-7. 10.1016_S0140-6736(16)00256-7.pdf
最近，美国NASA赚足了眼球， 事件起源于一段在网站上传的、题为“匿名者：美国航天局将宣布发现智慧外星生命”的视频。视频中称，NASA副局长托马斯 楚比兴曾在美国国会听证会上说，“我们的文明即将在宇宙中发现外星生物的证据”。这立刻就成了大新闻，国外诸多媒体纷纷援引报道。 26日，楚比兴不得不通过社交媒体推特澄清：“与一些报道所说的相反，美国宇航局没有事关地外生命的待定宣布。” 而在对视频发布者的账号进行仔细研究后，《华盛顿邮报》认为，这个账号与著名的黑客组织“匿名者”并无关系。 所以，期待与外星人“第一次亲密接触”的小伙伴们，可能还得继续等下去了。 不过，一直在探索，从不忘“搞事”的NASA，向来都是“手中有料，心中不慌”。这不，近日NASA就在网站上发布视频宣布，十几年一度的太阳活动极小期就快来了，这颗离我们最近的恒星即将发生一些变化。 目前，太阳活动正向着低点而行。2014年，太阳黑子的数量曾经达到了相对的峰值，现在，它们正在向低谷滑落，预计将在2019-2020年达到低点。 在太阳活动极小期期间，太阳的磁场减弱，屏蔽星际宇宙射线的能力也相应减弱，因此到达地球的宇宙射线数量将会增加。而这宇宙射线恰恰是导致2015年南美洲寨卡病毒爆发的真正的原因！ 没发现外星人 但NASA说太阳即将改变 http://news.163.com/17/0630/14/CO6G7PNO000189A3.html 宇宙射线为什么会导致寨卡病毒爆发？请见本人和英国著名宇宙学家 Chandra Wickramasinghe的 最新论文的分析。 Was the Zika virus outbreak in 2015 triggered by cosmic events? Jiangwen Qu 1 and Chandra Wickramasinghe 2,3 * 1Department of Infectious Disease Control, Tianjin Centers for Disease Controland Prevention, China ； 2 BuckinghamCentre for Astrobiology, University of Buckingham, UK; 3 Sri LankaCentre for Astrobiology, University ofRuhuna, Sri Lanka *Corresponding: N. Chandra Wickramasinghe, E-Mail: ncwick@gmail.com , Tel: +44 (0)2920752146 / +44 (0)7778389243 Abstract The Zika virus outbreak in 2015 posed a serious public health threat, particularly in view of its association with congenital abnormalities. We point out that this outbreak may have been linked to a systematic increase in the flux of cosmic rays and a general decline of sunspot activity that has been observed over the period 2010-2017. Future surveillance efforts should in our view take account of such events. Keywords: Zika virus,sunspot activity, cosmic rays The rapid spread of the Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas and its association withcongenital abnormalities such as microcephaly and Guillain Barré syndrome hasled the World Health Organization to declare an international public healthemergency on 1 February 2016. ZIKV was first detected in Brazil in May 2015 and subsequently in severalcountries of South and Central America and the Caribbean.The cases of microcephaly in Brazil,potentially associated with ZIKV infection, were identified in November 2015. RTPCR analyses on RNA extracted from Aedes aegypti mosquitoes captured fromJanuary to March 2015 in Mexico showedthe presence of ZIKV thus strongly suggesting that the mosquito vectorwas already carrying the virus at the start of 2015 1 . The ZIKV outbreak of2015 was possibly the largest and deadliest since the disease was firstrecognized in 1947, so it is reasonable tosurmise that some special or unusual factors played a role. ZIKV is classified as an arthropod borne, single strandedRNA virus of the Flaviviridaefamily and genus Flavivirus. Mosquitoes, e speciallythe species Aedes aegypti mosquitoes,can be infected by different Zika viruses in nature. The viruses firstreproduce in the mosquito'sintestines, and then enter other tissues through the blood, ultimately multiplyingin the salivary glands from which they can enter the blood of stream of amosquito-bitten victim. With the eventual control of the 201 5 ZIKV outbreak, this infectious disease can be expected to remain endemicposing a considerable challenge for the foreseeable future. The globalcommunity will be well served if criteria can be discovered that might help predicta possible future onset and hence minimise the ravages caused by similaroutbreaks in the future. V irus mutation and/orrecombination events are likely to be the main possibilities for the emergence ofenhanced ZIKV disease severity in 2015 , so it is necessary todiscover possible factors that may have led to such events. Arecent study published in the Lancet arguedthat exceptional climatic conditions arising from the strong El Niño event in2015 in North Eastern South America might have contributed, albeit in a poorlydefined way, to the rapid dispersal of ZIKV 2 . It is of interest to note in thiscontext that the primary cause of the 2015/16 El Nino event itself mightpossibly have been linked to solar activity 3 . Recent studies have shown that sunspot numbers and cosmic ray activity can play a role in the emergence of influenza pandemics, e xtremes of sunspotactivity to within plus or minus 1 year being identified as an important riskfactor for influenza pandemics 4 . Thesunspot cycle (No.24) that peaked in 2014 showed the lowest sunspot numbersrecorded since 1906 with a steady weakening trend of solar activity from 1980to the present day (Fig.1). These conditions are ideal for facilitating ingressof high energy galactic cosmic rays which could have mutagenic effects. A systematic increase of cosmic rays in thestratosphere has been recorded throughout the period 2015-2017 alongside withthe general decline of solar activity (Fig.2) Whilst a general decline in sunspot numbers can provide an open gateway for mutagenic cosmicrays, coronal ejections of charged particles from the sun that reach thestratosphere, can additionally set up electric fields (eg the Aurorae) thatbring down extraterrestrial viral-sized particles (including virions) to groundlevel 5,6,7 . It is worth noting that both virion-sized particletransport as well as galactic cosmic rays could be localised with respect totheir points of arrival on the Earth’s surface. Thus an emergence of a new recombinant virus could be a highly localisedevent – for example the start of the new ZIKAV appearing in Mexico. Recombination and reassortment of genesin an endemic virus with compatible new virions are known to occur at highly variable frequencies in RNA viruses for example for Influenza A. Recent genetic studies reveal that ZIKAV inthe 2015 outbreak is probably a recombinant virus 8,9,10 , therecombination involving a component that may have undergone a cosmicray-induced mutation in 2015, and/or a virion arriving from an extraterrestrialsource. In conclusion we make the bold suggestionthat a surveillanceof cosmic ray activity on the ground, stratospheric sampling aswell as monitoring coronal discharges may serve asa potential warning of future pandemics. Such measures combined with otherepidemiological and genetic data might prove a useful factor for strategicdisease-control planning in the case of ZIKV as well as of otherpandemic-causing viruses. 论文链接： https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/was-the-zika-virus-outbreak-in-2015-triggered-by-cosmic-events.php?aid=90426 著名宇宙学家 Chandra Wickramasinghe http://www.buckingham.ac.uk/directory/professor-chandra-wickramasinghe/ http://profchandra.org/category/blog/
标签: 寨卡
