之前没有关心过流行病学方面,一直以为就是折腾几个微分方程,没有什么意思。现在有一个想法需要用到流行病学建模,才想去关注一下这个领域。不看不知道,一看吓一跳,竟然有这么多人在做流行病学,而且各种各样的模型都有,好晕好晕,不禁感叹这水真深,有点不敢趟了。不过水深归水深,还是想多了解一下在我这个外行看来处于乱世的领域。 先说说总体印象,在我所看的有限的几篇建模的文章里,都指向了一个共同的模型SIR。这个模型是非常经典的,基本上现在所有的模型都是在这个模型的基础上发展而来,如SIRS,SIQR等。这就好比很多种不同的建筑都有着相似的内核。我所理解的流行病学建模的过程如下:首先根据具体的疾病传播情况,提出不同的假设,对疾病流行的过程进行抽象化,然后转化为数学公式,一般是微分方程或者统计学模型。接下来根据监测数据,估计模型中的参数,得到初步的模型。最后就是对这些模型进行验证和修正,得到最能够反映真实流行病学规律的模型,期望用这些模型能够进行预测疾病的传播动态,或者评估各种干预措施对于疾病传播的影响。难点在于怎样根据具体的问题提出合理的假设和构建合理的模型,这正是大部分流行病学建模工作的出发点。 针对流行病学建模,国际上有一个团队MIDAS(Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study),由多所美国著名大学的研究人员组成。 MIDAS is a collaborative network of research scientists who use computational, statistical and mathematical models to understand infectious disease dynamics and thereby assist the nation to prepare for, detect and respond to infectious disease threats. 发现一个建模的软件(model builder),打算有时间玩玩。数学玩不转,只能够玩玩软件了,真后悔大学没有把数学学好。
从回来的路上,我仍在想着义乌的登革热。 据一位在医院工作的朋友讲,八月初他的一位亲戚出现了高热,全身情况比较重,那时候血液科的病房里同时收治了2例类似的病例。他大概了解了一下,病人都是同一个村的,病情都比较重,不同于平常见的一些疾病。当时,他们就汇报给了义乌市疾病控制预防中心(center for disease control and prevention,CDC)。他们还计划过去现场做流行病学调查,却不知什么原因没有成行。CDC去调查了一番,却没有结果。结果就不了了之了。 到国庆节前,病例一下增到了两百多例。于是,市里的领导有点紧张了,据说还下了命令“国庆期间,不准新发一例”,引了不少笑话。不过,大家还是真的重视起来了,宣传、灭蚊、卫生等,诸项工作迅速展开,大有掀起运动之势。我想,义乌的登革热,也不会长久了。我也想,义乌的登革热应该有些启示。 义乌作为国际小商品城,世界各地人员来往频繁,使登革热发生成为可能。当今世界,由于交通高度发达,人和物的广泛流动,使许多传染病原有的流行区域时刻可以发生改变。这一特点需要医务人员,尤其是CDC工作人员充分意识到,由此加强戒备。 流行早期,义乌市CDC进行流行病学调查,却没有结果,大致可以归因于几个原因:一是调查人员的经验和研究水平可能存在问题,尤其是对这样几乎不能发生在本地的疾病,可能丧失了必要的警惕感;二是CDC与临床机构的合作,可能存在问题;三是检验设备有无充分利用起来,实验室数据积累是否充分,值得怀疑? 义乌登革热又是对社会应急系统的一次检测,从疾病发生到引起领导高度重视,到充分动员起来,至少有两个月的时间。这期间,如果一开始即得到应有的重视,并且每项工作和措施具有成效,也不至于领导说出“不准新发一例”的急话,引发笑话。这中间,应急系统的被动性显而易见,同时,社会对突发事件的客观认识不足(市领导尚且如此,民众会如何?专业人员当然清楚,但这样的领导会主动尊重科学吗?) (2009.10.07 17:27:00 http://sstone2006.blogcn.com/diary,29085731.shtml )
national epidemiologic survey on alcohol; national comorbidity survey replication; national epidemiologic survey on; primary care; in the; disorders in; major depressive disorder; disorders in the; national comorbidity survey; comorbidity survey replication http://www.gopubmed.org/web/gopubmed/1?WEB0udvls93h00ntI4I5I00h001000j100300.y epidemiologic survey and depressive disorder and primary care depression treatment 569 documents semantically analyzed top author statistics 1 2 Top Years Publications 2009 57 2007 55 2008 54 2006 49 2004 49 2005 42 2010 35 2002 32 2001 28 1998 26 1999 23 2003 22 1997 22 2000 19 1995 14 1994 12 1996 10 1993 9 1992 5 1991 3 1 2 1 2 Top Countries Publications USA 312 United Kingdom 42 Germany 32 Canada 24 Netherlands 18 Australia 17 France 15 Finland 14 Spain 11 Sweden 10 Japan 7 Italy 6 Israel 5 Denmark 4 Hungary 4 Belgium 3 Brazil 3 Ireland 3 Switzerland 3 India 2 1 2 1 2 3 ... 10 Top Cities Publications Seattle 35 London 20 Boston 19 New York City 19 Pittsburgh 12 Ann Arbor 12 Philadelphia 12 San Diego 11 Amsterdam 10 Rochester 9 Los Angeles 9 Durham 9 San Francisco 8 Paris 8 Munich 7 Baltimore 7 New Haven 6 Barcelona 6 Chicago 6 Indianapolis 6 1 2 3 ... 10 1 2 3 ... 12 Top Journals Publications J Clin Psychiat 42 Am J Psychiat 26 Gen Hosp Psychiat 20 J Affect Disorders 17 Int J Psychiat Med 15 Psychol Med 13 Depress Anxiety 10 Int J Geriatr Psychiatry 10 Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol 9 Nord J Psychiatry 9 Arch Gen Psychiat 9 J Gen Intern Med 8 J Psychosom Res 7 Psychosom Med 7 Can J Psychiat 7 J Nerv Ment Dis 6 J Clin Psychiatry 6 Int Psychogeriatr 6 J Affect Disord 6 Am J Geriat Psychiat 6 1 2 3 ... 12 1 2 3 ... 73 Top Terms Publications Humans 566 Depression 495 Primary Health Care 463 Depressive Disorder 434 Patients 389 Adult 358 Middle Aged 291 Prevalence 280 Aged 243 Comorbidity 224 Diagnosis 223 Questionnaires 186 Advance Directives 176 Anxiety 174 Antidepressive Agents 173 Depressive Disorder, Major 166 Adolescent 165 Data Collection 156 Physicians, Family 143 Anxiety Disorders 141 1 2 3 ... 73 1 2 3 ... 108 Top Authors Publications Katon W 21 Simon G 14 Lin E 13 Wittchen H 12 Von Korff M 11 Lecrubier Y 10 Olfson M 9 Russo J 8 Fava M 7 Kessler R 7 Ludman E 7 Untzer J 7 Weissman M 7 Rush A 6 Beekman A 6 Ciechanowski P 6 Klinkman M 6 Gameroff M 6 Roy-Byrne P 6 Schulberg H 6 1 2 3 ... 108 http://arrowsmith.psych.uic.edu/cgi-bin/arrowsmith_uic/edit_b.cgi Start A-Literature C-Literature B-list Filter Literature A-query: epidemiologic survey and depressive d... C-query: primary care depression treatment The B-list contains title words and phrases (terms) that appeared in both the A and the C literature. 569 articles appeared in both literatures and were not included in the process of computing the B-list but can be viewed here . The results of this search are saved under id # 9041 and can be accessed from the start page after you leave this session. There are 426 terms on the current B-list ( 220 are predicted to be relevant), which is shown ranked according to predicted relevance. The list can be further trimmed down using the filters listed in the left margin. To assess whether there appears to be a biologically significant relationship between the AB and BC literatures for specific B-terms, please select one or more B-terms and then click the button to view the corresponding AB and BC literatures. Use Ctrl to select multiple B-terms. job id # 9041 started Mon Jan 3 21:41:26 2011 Max_citations: 50000 Stoplist: /var/www/html/arrowsmith_uic/data/stopwords_pubmed Ngram_max: 3 9041 Search ARROWSMITH A A_query_raw: epidemiologic survey and depressive disorderMon Jan 3 21:45:54 2011 A query = epidemiologic survey and depressive disorder started Mon Jan 3 21:45:55 2011 A query resulted in 9751 titles 9041 Search ARROWSMITH C C_query_raw: primary care depression treatment Mon Jan 3 21:46:06 2011 C: primary care depression treatment 5868 A: pubmed_query_A 9751 AC: ( epidemiologic survey and depressive disorder ) AND ( primary care depression treatment ) 569 C query = primary care depression treatment started Mon Jan 3 21:46:08 2011 C query resulted in 5868 titles A AND C query resulted in 569 titles 9119 B-terms ready on Mon Jan 3 21:48:08 2011 Sem_filter: Chemicals Drugs 426 B-terms left after filter executed Mon Jan 3 21:54:25 2011 B-list on Mon Jan 3 21:56:27 2011 1 venlafaxine 2 olanzapine 3 mirtazapine 4 sertraline 5 paroxetine 6 duloxetine 7 bupropion 8 paroxetine treatment 9 trial sertraline 10 veteran posttraumatic stress 11 fluoxetine treatment 12 serotonin transporter 13 selective serotonin reuptake 14 sf-36 15 risperidone 16 citalopram 17 venlafaxine treatment 18 dsm r 19 antidepressant prescribing 20 serotonin reuptake inhibitor 21 fluoxetine 22 alcohol disorder 23 nefazodone 24 serotonin reuptake 25 antidepressant associated 26 selective serotonin 27 medication algorithm 28 tianeptine 29 stress disorder primary 30 depression anxiety stress 31 comparison venlafaxine 32 sertraline versus 33 posttraumatic stress 34 chronic posttraumatic stress 35 reuptake inhibitor 36 antiretroviral 37 serotonergic antidepressant 38 dsm 39 star d report 40 antidepressant efficacy 41 lamotrigine 42 medication algorithm project 43 stress disorder health 44 study venlafaxine 45 traumatic stress disorder 46 bupropion sr 47 depression alcohol 48 blind comparison venlafaxine 49 trial fluoxetine 50 antidepressant therapy 51 fluoxetine venlafaxine 52 stress disorder depression 53 tricyclic antidepressant 54 atypical antipsychotic 55 star d study 56 antidepressant pharmacotherapy 57 study olanzapine 58 disorder step bd 59 prescribing antidepressant 60 complementary alternative 61 modafinil 62 post traumatic stress 63 risperidone treatment 64 pramipexole 65 divalproex 66 controlled trial fluoxetine 67 trial antidepressant 68 related posttraumatic stress 69 alprazolam 70 antidepressant selective serotonin 71 related antidepressant 72 antidepressant patient 73 effectiveness antidepressant treatment 74 stress depressive 75 stress anxiety depression 76 stress disorder a 77 nortriptyline 78 olanzapine monotherapy 79 response antidepressant 80 antidepressant utilization 81 trial nefazodone 82 tricyclic antidepressant selective 83 antidepressant a 84 antidepressant response 85 homosexually active 86 fluoxetine major depressive 87 venlafaxine or 88 randomized trial sertraline 89 urban setting zimbabwe 90 rural urban 91 response sertraline 92 validity dsm 93 antidepressant drug 94 controlled trial divalproex 95 safety antidepressant 96 depression antidepressant 97 antidepressant prescription 98 antidepressant treatment 99 alcohol drug 100 acute antidepressant 101 paroxetine treatment major 102 outpatient cocaine 103 tianeptine treatment 104 choosing antidepressant 105 treatment sertraline 106 reuptake inhibitor antidepressant 107 co occurring 108 antidepressant treatment depression 109 clinical sertraline 110 depression fluoxetine 111 effectiveness antidepressant 112 antidepressant medication 113 response citalopram 114 long term benzodiazepine 115 urban rural 116 effect antidepressant 117 duration antidepressant 118 enhancement program bipolar 119 stress social 120 finding star d 121 paroxetine fluoxetine 122 anxiety stress 123 psychotropic medication 124 stress disorder symptom 125 traumatic stress 126 alcohol drug mental 127 duloxetine treatment major 128 term fluoxetine treatment 129 amitriptyline 130 trazodone 131 result star d 132 escitalopram treatment 133 stress disorder 134 treated fluoxetine 135 adolescent alcohol 136 efficacy sertraline 137 pediatric primary 138 controlled trial duloxetine 139 lead depression 140 new antidepressant 141 associated antidepressant 142 functional serotonin transporter 143 treatment antidepressant 144 co occurring mental 145 texas medication algorithm 146 antidepressant older adult 147 blood glucose control 148 outcome antidepressant 149 insulin treated diabetes 150 tricyclic 151 lithium maintenance treatment 152 opioid therapy 153 cardiorespiratory fitness 154 valproate 155 antidepressive 156 problematic alcohol 157 antidepressant 158 exposure posttraumatic stress 159 antidepressant medication treatment 160 health antidepressant 161 risk alcohol 162 based screening depression 163 alcohol related 164 antidepressant clinical 165 effect antidepressant medication 166 care provider 167 antidepressant antipsychotic 168 stress anxiety 169 response antidepressant treatment 170 psychoactive substance 171 antidepressant cognitive 172 antidepressant treatment response 173 tension headache 174 methamphetamine dependence 175 benzodiazepine 176 pediatric suicidality 177 quetiapine monotherapy 178 internet delivered 179 admitted 180 long term fluoxetine 181 interferon alfa-2b 182 medication adherence 183 escitalopram treatment major 184 star d child 185 depression diagnosis antidepressant 186 efficacy safety duloxetine 187 factor influencing depression 188 adjunctive antidepressant 189 patient experience antidepressant 190 rise antidepressant prescribing 191 pediatric major depressive 192 stress coping 193 antipsychotic 194 trial sertraline versus 195 psychosocial stress 196 medication nonadherence 197 duloxetine compared 198 depression co 199 psychotropic drug 200 impact antidepressant 201 effect selective serotonin 202 reported alcohol 203 treatment antidepressant medication 204 stress symptom 205 methadone maintained 206 nicotine 207 antipsychotic treatment 208 factor depression outcome 209 antidepressant drug treatment 210 effect antidepressant therapy 211 alcohol misuse 212 severity antidepressant 213 dopamine d2 receptor 214 psychoactive 215 treated antidepressant 216 direct cost 217 depression insulin 218 developing anxiety 219 adult alcohol 220 methamphetamine http://arrowsmith.psych.uic.edu/cgi-bin/arrowsmith_uic/show_sentences.cgi Start A-Literature C-Literature B-list Filter Literature AB literature B-term BC literature epidemiologic survey and de... olanzapine primary care depression treatm... 1: Olanzapine versus lithium in the acute treatment of bipolar mania: a double-blind, randomized, controlled trial.2008 Add to clipboard 2: A randomized, double-blind comparison of olanzapine /fluoxetine combination, olanzapine , fluoxetine, and venlafaxine in treatment-resistant depression.2006 Add to clipboard 3: A 24-week open-label extension study of olanzapine -fluoxetine combination and olanzapine monotherapy in the treatment of bipolar depression.2006 Add to clipboard 4: Depressive signs and symptoms in schizophrenia: a prospective blinded trial of olanzapine and haloperidol.1998 Add to clipboard 1: Olanzapine treatment in anorexia nervosa: case report.2009 Add to clipboard 2: Olanzapine monotherapy and olanzapine combination therapy in the treatment of mania: 12-week results from the European Mania in Bipolar Longitudinal Evaluation of Medication (EMBLEM) observational study.2008 Add to clipboard 3: Olanzapine increases slow wave sleep and sleep continuity in SSRI-resistant depressed patients.2005 Add to clipboard 4: Retrospective Study of Olanzapine in Depressive and Anxious States in Primary Care.2004 Add to clipboard 5: Olanzapine treatment for post-traumatic stress disorder: an open-label study.2001 Add to clipboard 6: Naturalistic study of olanzapine in treatment-resistant schizophrenia and acute mania, depression and obsessional disorder.2000 Add to clipboard
详细信息见 http://f1000medicine.com/browse/PUBLHEALTH 国际医学专家按F1000 Factor评出的公共卫生与流行病学研究国际优秀论文,你可以选择查阅近一周至近五年发表的优秀论文。 可按以下分类进行检索查阅: Public Health Epidemiology Epidemiology Global Health Health Systems Services Research Occupational Environmental Medicine Preventive Medicine Social Behavioral Determinants of Health
肺功能研究。供图:迈克尔.哈根米勒( Michael Haggenmüller ) 约阿希姆.海因里希( Joachim Heinrich )博士。供图 :乌拉.鲍姆加特 诺伊尔伯格2009年12月14日消息。在亥姆霍兹慕尼黑中心的流行病学研究所与肺生物学所的科研人员通过与一个国际协作团队的合作,共同发现了对肺功能有关键影响的5个基因变种。呼吸功能受限对于包括慢性梗阻性肺病(COPD)在内的许多肺部疾病都有很大影响。在最新一期的《自然遗传学》杂志上,SpiroMeta协作团队的科研人员就20,000多人结合他们的肺功能做了250万个基因组位置的比对。研究人员从中发现5种基因变种是与肺活量以及呼吸强度有关联。此效应将通过另外的33000人的实验予以验证。项目中也借鉴了CHARGE(Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology)协作团队的数据。在本研究中肺功能是通过一个呼吸机测量出来的。该设备所测量的是最大吸入之后每秒的出气量以及呼出总量。从数据上可以立即看出肺活量是否偏低或都存在呼吸障碍,比如慢性阻塞性肺病。 约阿希姆.海因里希博士,埃里希.维希曼(Erich Wichmann)教授以及霍尔格.舒尔茨(Holger Schulz)教授在亥姆霍兹慕尼黑研究中心的KORA项目里共同领导了这项研究。“新发现的这几个基因跟物质代谢过程有关,它们对于解毒、炎症和治疗过程都有核心影响”,海因里希说。虽然每个遗传变异的影响还是相当弱的,这项结果可能有助于更好地了解阻塞性肺病的成因,并在将来开发新的治疗方案。 患有慢性阻塞性肺病的患者主要在受累的情况下会出现咳嗽、痰量增加、呼吸窘迫。呼吸强度以及肺容量日益减少。在40岁以上的人群中有10%的人受此病的影响。目前只有减轻症状的治疗,但都不治根本。当前慢性阻塞性肺病已经在全球死亡原因的序列表上排名第四位。 其他研究措施将检验肺部的哪些分子学变化是由于这些遗传变异造成的。研究人员还希望澄清,这些基因变异是否可以用作药物治疗的靶点。 背景信息 原始出版物:Emmanouela Repapi et. al., Genome-wide association study identifies five new loci associated with lung function Nat Genet. Epub 2009 Oct 11 SpiroMeta 协作组 共由14个从事全基因组数据的国际研究项目组成。项目由英国莱斯特大学的马丁.托宾(Martin Tobin)教授协调,研究遗传学因素对呼吸系统疾病和肺功能的影响。 KORA (奥斯堡地区健康研究合作项目,埃里希.维希曼教授负责)是一个在流行病学、卫生经济学、卫生服务等方面以人口卫生调查为手段的科研平台。KORA是一个有民众代表性的人口普查网络以及随之而来的相对应的跟踪研究。 亥姆霍兹慕尼黑中心 流行病学研究所 致力于从方法学上解决小风险的量化问题,微尘以及空气污染对于肺以及心血管系统的影响,呼吸系统疾病和过敏症的地域分布以及发展。研究所的一个新的重点方向是对复杂疾病作分子学分析(如哮喘、2型糖尿病、心脏衰竭)。该所的核心任务是采用流行病学的方法探讨环境影响与遗传因素对于人体健康的影响。 肺病的研究是亥姆霍兹慕尼黑中心的一个重点方向。在肺病研究中心CPC(综合肺病中心)的框架下,亥姆霍兹慕尼黑中心与慕尼黑路德维希-马克西米利安大学以用阿斯克勒庇俄斯诊所一起进行慢性肺部疾病的基础机理和早期发现、诊断和治疗方面的研究。奥利弗.埃克尔伯格(Oliver Eickelberg)教授即负责亥姆霍兹慕尼黑中心的肺生物学与肺病研究所(Institute of Lung Biology and Disease - iLBD),也同时是慕尼黑路德维希-马克西米利安大学实验性肺病研究所的所长,同时兼CPC实验肺病研究室主任。
我的专业是烧伤外科学,这是我博士论文的一部分内容,已经整理成文,希望对各位家长有所启示,有所帮助。 目前我院烧伤专科门诊中,近60%的患者都为儿童患者(个人经验,未经正规统计),随着劳动安全条件的逐步提高,成人烧伤的比例将逐渐降低,儿童由于多为被动生活,生活经验不丰富,儿童烧伤所占烧伤人群比例将不断提高,关注儿童烧伤,提高儿童烧伤预防能力将是未来的趋势。 本文题目及发表网址: Pediatrics. 2008 Jul;122(1):132-42. Epidemiology of pediatric burns requiring hospitalization in China: a literature review of retrospective studies. Kai-Yang L , Zhao-Fan X , Luo-Man Z , Yi-Tao J , Tao T , Wei W , Bing M , Jie X , Yu W , Yu S . Burn Center, Changhai Hospital, Second Military Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China. http://pediatrics.aappublications.org/cgi/content/full/122/1/132