《世界粮食与农业：过去５０年的教训》 二十世纪八十年代 摘译自FAO出版的《THE STATE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 2000》一书 ·很多 拉美及非洲国家失去的10年 ·经济稳定与结构调整 ·非洲饥荒，环境与可持续发展 ·贸易紧张与乌拉圭回合的发起 经济危机和调整 二十世纪八十年代的10年大多被持久的经济衰退所主导，经济衰退影响了很多国家，包括发达国家和发展中国家，对这些国家的农业发展和整体发展造成不利的影响。《粮食与农业状况》报道，很多发展中国家尽管对稳定和恢复经济进行了不懈的努力，引进强硬的政策措施，但是年复一年，其经济处于无休止的恶化状态。1990年出版的《粮食与农业状况》有专门的章节对这一危机时期作了大量的总结，标题是“结构调整与农业”。 二十世纪八十年代早期国际经济环境突变后出现了危机。在危机前金融市场通畅，很多发展中国家实行扩充的财政和货币政策。1979年的第二次石油震荡和五年前不同，导致许多发达国家紧缩货币和财政政策，造成经济活动严重放慢。经济减速造成进口需求降低，这与国际商品价格陡降相吻合。国际信贷突然枯竭，向发展中国家的资金流入停止。70年代借债很重而且将资金投入生产力低的项目的国家不能偿还其外债。1982年墨西哥承认自己无偿还债务的必需资金，从而掀起一场全球危机，使很多发展中国家卷入了深深的经济衰退之中。特别依赖对外贸易且债务沉重的拉美国家受到的影响尤其严重。亚洲是这十年中人均收入没有下降的唯一地区。危机还导致了1982年的贸易紧缩，这在25年来是第一次；危机导致了这10年中其他年份贸易增长低。发展中国家的外债负担日益加重，已敲响了警钟， 《粮食与农业状况》还注意到，发展中国家对这场危机在政策上的反应有某种消极因素，这进一步加剧了危机。各国要在尽可能短的时间内稳定经济只能缩减财政开支和减少进口。国际贷款机构强制许多国家实行的结构调整计划（SAPS）成了政府被迫恢复经济健康的手段。SAPS有条件限制，即政府减少支出，货币贬值，市场自由化和公有企业的私有化。这对很多发展中国家而言是严重的经济冲击和社会振荡：在提供社会公共服务的同时工资下降，失业率上升，因此城镇各行业也会受到影响。市场自由化避免了政府的干预。《粮食与农业状况》提出如下论点：如果为了恢复经济平衡必须保持稳定，为了有坚实的增长基础而进行调整，这个措施的直接社会成本是让人不能接受的，需要政府和金融机构再作调整。 危机和处理危机的措施对农业有直接的影响。很多农业受到农产品价格低和利率高的价格挤兑，农业受市场影响大的国家尤其如此。有利于农业的公众支持计划被缩减了或取消了，而那些帮助政治上的弱势穷人的计划往往首先砍掉。往往首先推迟农业产品生产、销售和投入供应系统的改善。收入减少和信贷限制迫使农场主减少雇员和减少购买化肥及其他生产必需品。所有这些因素都使很多国家的农业生产进一步恶化，加重了农村的苦难。二十世纪70年代至80年代期间，拉美国家和加勒比地区，农业生产的年平均增长率从3.5%下降到2.2%；在其它地区，这种危机对农业产出增长的影响不容易感觉到；非洲粮食生产的增长速度低于人口增长速度。 在这个时期农业贸易也受到严重打击。整个发展中国家的农业出口年增长率从二十世纪70年代的15%下降到80年代的3%以下。这主要是由于商品价格的急剧下跌。尽管1987/88年出现了短期的价格上涨，但1989年发展中国家农业出口价格的总体水平比1980年下降了三分之一。商品价格的下跌是由于很多国家巨大的债务强迫它们扩大出口生产同时减少进口，加上农业出口的需求疲软和农产品没能完全进入发达国家市场的缘故。同时，发展中国家某些农产品的市场的竞争力受到工业化国家的农业保护政策（如出口补贴）的影响而大大地削弱。不利的经济环境加剧了保护压力和贸易紧张，而与此同时阻碍了在加强与农业贸易、粮食安全和发展援助方面的多边调解中的国际努力。本来就已失去活力的国际农产品协定在这个时期彻底瓦解。 具有深远意义的中国改革 然而并不是经济政策和农业政策上所有极端的变革计划都有这种负面效应。二十世纪70年代末期，中国的政策制定者对农村实行了一系列的改革，改变了过去农业中出现的令人不满意的局面。1978年开始采取的措施是通过提高农产品价格和提高农民收入，促进农民增收，从而促进农业生产，但随后是对农业的完全重组。在不到五年的时间内，由集体所有制到家庭承包责任制的政策变化使资源的控制和粮食生产发生了变化。二十世纪80年代早期，政府解散了人民公社，实行了家庭承包责任制，由价格和市场来决定投入和生产。 本刊在当年并未提到这些改革，而是在1985年全球十年回顾时首次讨论了这个问题。1985年的《粮食与农业状况》对中国的政策改革大加赞扬，这种政策改革使农业生产力和农民收入得到了极大提高，促进了粮食生产的年增长率和人均农业收入的提高，粮食生产增长率由每年的0.5%提高到5%。然而事后看来，生产力的显著提高是在一段时期的农业基础设施投入基础上建立起来的，而这种投入是从二十世纪50年代就已开始的基础设施投入的延续，只是在五十年代时期高度集中的农业销售和购买政策未能使这种投入发挥作用。这次调整的经验突出说明，在一系列政策中合适的农业发展政策的重要性。 粮食安全性 二十世纪80年代中期，出于对经济危机的严重性及其广泛的影响的担心，联合国粮农组织对粮食安全进行了重新评价。粮食安全性的新概念主要侧重于3个方面：粮食的可获得性，粮食供应的稳定性，粮食供应渠道的畅通。以前对粮食安全强调的只是供给方面，即粮食的可获得性和粮食供应的稳定性，特别是通过在国家或地区级和国际级建立和保持足够的粮食储备。粮食安全性的新概念增加了对需求方面的考虑，即通过生产获得粮食或以农业收入及非收入购买粮食。 20 世纪80年代还见证了另一件令人震惊的事件，即非洲的饥荒。1983年1月的粮农组织GIEW中首次报道了南非的旱灾所造成的灾难性后果，随后非洲大陆的其它地区传来更加令人震惊的消息。1984年间，本世纪该地区最严重的旱灾之一达到了顶峰，使萨赫勒地区和南非及东非的大多数国家变成了一片焦土。同时，内战进一步加剧了作物生产受灾所引起的混乱。饥饿吞噬了近20%的埃塞俄比亚人的生命，萨赫勒地区的整个传统文化处于崩溃的边缘，受影响的国家中有成千上万的人死亡。 非洲国家对这场危机的反应是慷慨的，这阻止了灾难的进一步蔓延。包括GIEWS在内的现有信息系统比12年前非洲主要粮食危机时期的作用更有效。1985年和1986年近七百万吨援助粮送到受灾地区，这在历史上是绝无仅有的。这次紧急事件的教训促使粮农组织提议采用《世界粮食安全条约》。条约要求各成员国竭尽全力根除饥饿的根源。虽然该条约和非洲粮食危机及其它地区很多国家的实际情况有特别的关系，这些国家的农业长期受到忽视，经济对外界的冲击十分脆弱，但这个条件并没有得到普遍接受。可能是由于在政府极力避免兑现承诺的时期，“条约”一词从法律意义上而言有太多的约束。 为农业发展和农村发展筹措资金 20 世纪70年代早期，常常在一定特许条款的前提下，金融资源快速地流入发展中国家，20世纪80年代这种势头仍然继续。在此期间，每年这种外部资金的流入以5-6%的速度增长。常常由于松懈的财政政策导致预算赤字的增长，也加剧了国内资金的流动。1969年的《皮尔森报告》可能也加剧了这种趋势，普遍的观点是由财政资源日益流动所资助的由政府发起的投资，将加速经济增加和农业及农村的发展。但是，经历二十世纪80年代的财政危机及经济稳定和结构调整过程以后，这种资金的流动又处于停滞状态，甚至在二十世纪80年代中期出现了回落的局面。由于双边和多边捐赠援助的疲软，加上严峻的经济现实，使私有的外向型投资（FDI）完全停止，只有几个国家例外。这种情况在亚洲表现最为明显。1986年的《粮食与农业状况》辟有专门的章节对此进行了报道，标题是“为农业发展提供资金”。这一章的分析引起了对许多发展中国家经济所面临的不可持续的财政不平衡的关注，还提醒经历了30-40年公有制企业起主要作用后人们的传统思维的转变，尤其是财政政策在促进经济增长方面的转变。 另一种赞成外援在国内经济中的作用思想是基于“两缺”的论点，即：资金和外汇的慢性短缺严重地制约了发展。二十世纪80年代早期的经历对这种观念提出了严峻的挑战。平衡政府预算和项目投资是人们越来越关注的问题。本章着重将目光放在调动国内农村储蓄进行投资，而不是过分地依靠外援或松懈的财政政策上，放在搜集能够吸引私人资金而不是造成外债的政策方面，即衡平法。现在我们可以看到，这个时期标志着对制度发展的重要性作更深入的剖析的转变，包括市场劳动力、交易成本、财产权等。因此，这个时期标志着二十世纪90年代“新制度经济”的出现。 环境保护、自然资源管理和可持续发展 二十世纪80年代期间公众对这些领域极为关注。不断出现的警报信号引起人们对森林破坏、水产资源的枯竭和浪费，二氧化碳大量释放造成的温室效应，其它气体对地球温度的影响，以及一些工业气体对全世界保护性臭氧层所造成的长期破坏的关注。 本刊有两个报告表明，1987年标志着重要的进步：其中一个是《世界环境与发展委员会报告》（或称《布朗特兰德报告》），这个报告于1987年递交给联合国大会；另一个是世界环境与发展委员会的《2000年及2000年后环境展望》。这两个报告引起了人们对可持续发展概念的广泛关注。可持续发展的概念在后来的十几年中得到了进一步的发展。 1989 年的《粮食与农业状况》又重新提及到1977年曾涉及的可持续发展和自然资源管理的问题，此举旨在使可持续发展的概念更具可操作性，还列出了不少可以采取具体行动的领域： ·发展中国家追求的经济目标必须是没有目前不可接受的对自身和其它国家的环境造成破坏的目标。 ·必须对贫困人口的生存战略进行严格的调查，保证他们赖以生存的资源不被过量的开采。 ·必须对各种类型的土地、水资源及其用途和其组合、质量制定广泛的战略。这些土地和水资源的用途包括具有高产潜力和低产潜力的土地、森林、渔业，以及遗传储备区。 ·应将经济和环境作为一个整体进行考虑，充分考虑发展战略和项目实施所带来的环境恶化的代价。 在渔业和林业方面有几个重要的事件。第三次联合国海洋法大会（UNCLOS）于1982年4月末完成其工作，此时采用了《国际海洋法公约》，1982年12月签署了这项公约。这项公约和国家措施一起使海洋国家对渔业资源的管辖权扩大到海岸线200海里的海域。因此，很多沿海国家不仅获得了新的机遇同时也面临着沉重的问题、责任和挑战。 1984 年中期，联合国粮农组织召开了“世界渔业管理和发展大会”，这是1982年签署新的海洋法定区域以后面对现实的第一次国际大会。这次大会是世界渔业管理进程中的一件大事。第一次使全世界几乎所有国家都走到一起来达成协议，采取全面措施，面对新的海洋属地问题，提高渔业的管理水平，将之作为粮食、就业和收入的重要来源。为了帮助发展中国家提高渔业的生产力和渔民的生活条件，1984年的“世界渔业管理和发展大会”签署了一项战略计划，及一个由五个项目组成的一揽子计划——渔业的计划管理和开发，小规模渔业的开发，水产养殖的开发，鱼类和水产品的国际贸易，促进渔业在减轻营养不良中的作用。 1985 年7月，墨西哥召开的“国际森林年”大会在“社会整体发展中的林业资源”的主题下，第九次世界林业代表大会重点讨论了热带和干旱地区因贫困引起的森林退化和破坏问题。这次代表大会强调了该年度初期联合国粮农组织热带林业发展委员会采用的《热带林业行动计划》的重要性和紧迫性。 同在1985年，粮农组织大会采用了《农药分配和使用国际行动准则》。这个准则是建立农药的安全使用和管理准则和其国际准则的第一步。 贸易磋商和贸易争端 随着农业贸易国间的摩擦不断升级，1986年9月发起了《乌拉圭回合多边贸易协定》，这是国际贸易中的一件大事。这是在多边贸易协定关贸总协定（GATT）中第一次把农业放在特别重要的位置。这个宣言正式宣布乌拉圭回合的开始，各国部长一致同意“世界农业贸易急需制定更多的准则和应具有可预测性，需要预防和纠正各种限制条款，包括与结构性过剩有关的限制条款，从而减少世界农产品市场的不确定性和不稳定性及不平衡性”。 1987/88 年，世界农业市场状况有了明显改观。一些重要的农产品市场从跌至多年的最低谷后的过剩状况转变为相对不足，国际农产品价格明显上升。全球很多商品的库存从以前的高水平急剧下降。1988年农业商品价格才开始有明显的回升，价格有所回升主要仅限于糖、禾谷类粮食作物、油菜籽及其制品。粮食作物价格的急剧上升是由于两年减产的缘故，尤其是1988年北美的干旱。但是在这个鼎盛时期内，即使是从名义上而言很多商品的价格仍然没有达到80年代初期的水平。从实质上来看，1988年农产品的出口价格平均只有1980年的四分之三。 社会问题 为了迎接将于1985年召开的《联合国妇女十年成就回顾与评价世界大会》，1983年的《粮食与农业状况》辟有专门的章节讨论了农场和农村地区妇女的问题，及妇女对粮食生产和销售及对乡镇企业的特殊贡献，旨在引起人们对粮食和农业领域的性别问题的广泛关注。还讨论了妇女目前所面临的困境和不平等问题，农业现代化对其生活状况的影响，以及妇女对发展的需求。还制定了进一步的目标，但并非单独为妇女开展活动和设立发展机构，而是将妇女问题纳入整个发展框架中。二十世纪80年代，随着人们对社会问题的日益关注，1984的《粮食与农业状况》辟有专门的章节讨论城市化与农业和粮食体制问题。该章分析了发展中国家的城市化所带来的问题和创造的机遇，这些问题直接关系到粮食生产和粮食向城镇人口的分配。文中指出：城市化和人口流动不是自发调节的过程，如果不加控制和引导，会导致农村人口和城镇居民的生活状况恶化。文章最后得出结论：可以通过政府采取行动，扭转农村向城镇的流动和扼制快速城市化及大城市的过渡扩大，从而减轻过快的现代化对农耕社会的负效应。这些措施可能仅仅需要取缔农业政策中的城市偏见或对这些政策加以协调。在某种情况下，可能需采取一些特别的措施，将人口从一个地区迁移到另一个地区或将就业转向农民。这些措施包括协助农民从农村向农村的流动或由政府发起的更细致的但花费更多的安置方案，以及农村工业化计划。长期的控制人口增长的政策将使局面更易控制。 附6 国际贸易规则的发展 关贸协定（GATT）于1947年生效，它是一个用于协商关税特许权和调控国际贸易的框架。关贸总协定最初被视为世贸组织（WTO）的一部分，除了处理关税和贸易专门问题，WTO还处理一系列与贸易有关的争端，如就业、发展、限制性经营行为、商品政策等。这样一来，关贸总协定就成了临时性的或过渡性的安排，直到1994年乌拉圭回合协定结束时都没有一个正式的组织框架。因此，将GATT归属于1995年1月生效的世贸组织之下。 当1947年开始实施关贸总协定时，只有23个缔约国参加，其世界贸易总额为100亿美元。到乌拉圭回合结束时，即GATT第8次贸易磋商回合时，有128个缔约国参加，世界贸易总额达50000亿美元，其中有12%为农业贸易。 GATT 的贸易规则是基于以下4项原则建立的： ①互惠性 一个国家给与其它国家关税特许权，同时作为交换从其他伙伴国得到相似的关税特许权。 ②不歧视政策 这包含在“最惠国待遇”（MFN）条款中，即给与任何一个缔约国的特许权将自动惠及所有缔约国。 ③国民待遇 进口产品和国内生产产品享有同等待遇，禁止对进口产品采取歧视政策。 ④“唯一关税”区 只能采用特许权条款中约定的普通关税调控进口。 1947 年的GATT包含38项条款（或规则），贯穿以上的原则，同时还涉及其它一些问题，特别是对不平等贸易（倾销、出口补贴）和进口的突然陡升（保证条款）等贸易争端的判定和处理（贸易措施）。在农产品贸易中，其中的一些条款对GATT的总则而言也有例外。 关贸总协定中对农业的处理 不象现在的世贸组织，虽然最初的关贸总协定对农业有明确的规则，但在总则中对农产品有两个突出的例外。其一是实行进口数量限制，其二是严禁实施出口补贴。 这些对农业的例外主要由于战后大国对农业实施了广泛的价格和收入扶持计划。很多政策是30年代大萧条时期和农业收入崩溃时期制定的，同时也是许多国家对战争时期农业粮食行业的一种调控措施。可以预料的是很多措施将会继续一段时间以促进农业的复苏，抵消战后农产品价格的下滑。 到1947年时，只有少数国家仍在完全实施这种农业政策，其中，美国是主要的农业出口国，其次是澳大利亚和加拿大、阿根廷、新西兰等国家。美国于1933年制定的《美国农业调整行动纲领》允许美国当局采用关税和进口数量控制及出口补贴措施稳定国内农产品价格，其中，农业和非农业收入平等的概念仍然得到强烈的支持。同时，欧洲也刚从战争中恢复过来，粮食安全是一个关键的问题。欧洲经济共同体和其共同的农业政策（CAP）于1956年和《罗马条约》一起出台。大批发展中国家仍处在殖民统治之下或仍在争取独立。 就是在世界大多数地区（包括欧洲）普遍存在粮食不安全和一些国家的农业收入与非农业收入比例下降的大背景下才将有关农业的这两条特殊条款写入GATT。 最初制定的GATT并不限制出口补贴，也不禁止国内补贴。但在1955年时将禁止对初级产品外的农产品实施出口补贴的条款加到总协定中，同时附加条件，要求补贴国在世界出口贸易中农产品补贴不能超出公平的市场份额。 在禁止对进口数量进行限制方面，最初的GATT规则只在以下情况下才使农产品和水产品不受此规则的约束，即为了实施国内政策或为了消除暂时的过剩。采用进口数量配额制限制类似产品的生产和销售，但在1955年，美国获得了GATT弃权声明书，将进口配额甚至用于没有生产或销售限制政策的地方。这使砂糖、花生、奶制品的进口受到很大影响。这项弃权声明书一直使用到乌拉圭回合农业协定生效为止。 回顾过去，我们可以看到，很多新兴的农业贸易国利用了这种先例和关贸总协定总则中关于农业的其它的例外规则。60年代和70年代这些措施的采用，以及“灰色区”措施的广泛采用，有效地将农业排除在GATT之外，其中，“灰色区”措施包括自愿进口限制，最低出口价，不固定的征税。在乌拉圭农业磋商回合后和最后的农业协定中进口数量配额限制、国内支持和保护政策及出口补贴是关注的焦点。 乌拉圭回合所取得的成就和遗留的问题 80 年代早期，由于农业中的贸易摩擦日益增多，普遍意识到世界农业贸易处于混乱状态是由于缺乏有效的GATT准则所造成的，在“温带区”粮食产品中普遍存在扭曲现象。因此，1986年发起了乌拉圭回合谈判，解决对国内农产品价值高达60%的补贴率和包含补贴战在内的日益增多的贸易争端以及工业化国家高额的农产品预算费用等问题。在磋商的过程中，各国都清楚地意识到国内农业扶持政策对贸易是有用的，但同时也需要加以规范。 针对《农业协定》中反映的问题所取得的主要结果归纳起来有以下几方面： （1）有关国内的扶持政策 制定了有关的规则对造成贸易扭曲的措施进行了规定，同时规定了允许采用的措施。规定了实施初期的支出标准，并要求随实施期逐渐递减。世贸组织成员不能超出规定的资金扶持费用。 （2）有关市场准入 大家一致达成协议，取消一切非关税进口限制措施，只用普通关税调控进口。第一次确定了大多数农产品的关税，而且要随着实施过程而削减关税率。鉴于农业在转变为唯一关税区后的高关税水平，引入了“最低”和“当前”准入关税配额。 （3）关于出口竞争 对出口补贴达成了协议，同时制定了实施初期国内资金扶持的支出额的标准，而且要求国内扶持的支出将随着协定的实施而逐渐减少。世贸组织成员不能超过确定的补贴限制标准。 （4）对发展中国家制定了专门区别对待的临时文件，允许发展中国家延长国内补贴的实施期，允许降低补贴的比例低于发达国家，对发达国家实施的某些准则对发展中国家都有一些例外，同时承诺为发展中国家提供技术和资金援助。 （5）乌拉圭协定中还有一些对《农业协定》的补充协议和决议，如《关于改革计划对最不发达国家和纯粮食进口的发展中国家的可能负面影响的决议》，该决议针对农业改革过程中的粮食进口困境提出了相应的解决措施。 （6）制定了《关于卫生措施和植物卫生措施的应用的协议》和《关于贸易技术壁垒的协议》，保证限制贸易的规则只在需要保护人类和动物的生命安全和保护植物安全时才能使用。 总而言之，乌拉圭回合的重要贡献在于使管理农业贸易的规则与GATT规则更为接近，当然这两个规则还不完全一致。目前的规则仍然允许一些对非农产品不再适用的措施在农产品贸易中继续使用，其中最引人注目的是出口补贴。结果，乌拉圭回合协定没有明显地减少农业贸易中的扭曲现象；然而，“农业协定”为进一步改革提供了框架，而且本协定中的第20条允许通过逐渐地根本性的减少扶持和国家保护来继续进行改革。于2000年3月开始了对这些问题的磋商。 THE 1980s · Alost decade for many countries in Latin America and Africa · Economic stabilization and structural adjustment · Famine in Africa, Environment and sustainable development · Trade tensions and the launching of the Uruguay Round Economic crisis and adjustment The decade of the 1980s was largely dominated by the protracted economic recession that affected many countries - developed and developing - at various times,with negative effects on their overall and agricultural development. The State of Food and Agriculture reported,year after year, a seemingly endless process of deteriorating conditions in many developing countries, despite strenuous efforts to stabilize and recovertheir economies and the introduction of harsh policy packages. The 1990 issue drew a number of conclusions regarding this crisis period in a special chapter entitled Structural adjustment and agriculture. A spiral of deteriorating macroeconomic conditions indeveloping countries impeded progress in agricultural trade, food security anddevelopment assistance. The crisis emerged in the early 1980s following a sudden and unexpected change in the international economic environment, formerly characterized by abundant liquidity in financial markets and expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in many developing countries. The second oil shock of 1979, unlike that of five years earlier, led many developed countries to tighten their monetary andfiscal policies, causing a severe slowdown in their economic activity. This slowdown caused a reduction in those countries'import demand, which coincided with and reinforced a sharp decline in international commodity prices.International credit suddenly dried up and capital inflows into developing countries all but ceased. Many countries that had borrowed heavily in the 1970s but had invested the funds in low-productivity projects could no longer repay their external loans. The admission by Mexico in 1982 that it lacked the necessary funds for debt repayment unleashed a global financial crisis that evolved into a deep recession in much of the developing world. Countries in Latin America that were particularly dependent on external trade and heavily indebted were especially affected. Asia was the only region that experienced no declines in per caput incomes during the decade. The crisis also led to acontraction in trade in 1982, the first in 25 years, and to low growth in trade for the rest of the decade. There was an alarming rise in the burden of external debt of the developing world. This publication noted on various occasions that the policy response to the crisisin the developing countries had recessive elements which, at least initially,further aggravated the crisis. Countries were to stabilize their economies inthe shortest possible time, and this could only be achieved through cuts inbudgetary expenditures and imports. Structural adjustment programmes (SAPs),which were imposed on many countries by international lending institutions,became the means by which governments were forced to restore health to their economies. SAPs, including access to their lines of credit, entailedconditionalities: reductions in state spending, currency devaluations, market liberalization and the privatization of public enterprises. They came as a severe economic and social shock to many developingcountries. Real wages were reduced together with the provision of public social services, and unemployment increased, so the urban sector was also affected.Government intervention, including social programmes, was eschewed in favour of liberal markets. The State of Food and Agriculture made thepoint that if stabilization was inevitable (to restore economic balances) and adjustment advisable (to create a sounder basis for growth), the immediate social cost of these measures was unacceptable and required particular consideration (adjusting adjustment) by governments and financinginstitutions. The crisis and measures to cope with it had direct effects on agriculture. Many farmers, especially in countries where agriculture was more exposed to market forces, were caught in a price squeeze with lower commodity prices coinciding with high real interest rates. Public support schemes in favour of agriculture were downscaled or abandoned. Programmes that helped the politically weak poor people were often among the first to be cut back. Economic priorities postponed the improvement of farming, marketing and input supply systems. Income losses and credit restrictions forced many farmers to reduce employment as well as the purchase of fertilizers and other production requisites. All these factors translated into deteriorating agricultural performances and rural hardship in many countries. In Latin America and the Caribbean, agricultural production growth declined from an annual average of 3.5 percent during the 1970s to 2.2 percent during the 1980s. For the other regions the impact of the crisis on agricultural output growth was less discernable in the aggregate but, in the case of Africa, the expansion in food production remained below populationgrowth. Agricultural trade was also badly hit. For the developing countries as a whole, agricultural export growth slowed down from 15 percent yearly during the 1970s to less than 3 percent during the 1980s. This was largely due to a dramatic decline incommodity prices. In real terms, the general level of agricultural export prices in the developing countries was one third lower in 1989 than in 1980,despite a short-lived price boom in 1987/88. The collapse of commodity prices stemmed from various causes: massive indebtedness in many countries - forcing them to expand production for export while reducing imports - combined with as lack demand for agricultural exports and inadequate access to developed country markets. At the same time, the ability of developing countries to compete for the markets of several commodities had been seriously weakened by the farm protectionist policies of industrialized countries, including heavy export subsidization. The adverse economic climate exacerbated protectionist pressures and heightened trade tensions while also impeding international efforts to strengthen multilateral arrangements related to agricultural trade, food security and development assistance. International commodity agreements,already languishing, collapsed during this period. Far-reaching reforms in China Yet not all programmes of radical shifts in economic and agricultural policy were to have such negative connotations. In the late 1970s, China's policy-makers introduced a series of rural sector reforms aimed at overcoming what were seen as unsatisfactory performances of agriculture. The measures introduced in 1978 initially focused on increasing agricultural production by providing farmers with improved price and income incentives, but they were quickly followed by acomplete restructuring of the agricultural sector. In less than five years,policy changes shifted the control of resources and production from the collective farming system to a household-based farming system. By the early 1980s, the government had dismantled the commune system, embraced the household responsibility system and allowed prices and markets to determine input use and production decisions. Contemporary issues of this publication did not refer to these reforms, which it first discussed in 1985 in the context of a global mid-decade review. The State of Food and Agriculture 1985 largely credited the policy reforms in China for extraordinary improvements in its farmproductivity and rural incomes. It reported an acceleration in the annual rate of growth in food production (from an average 3 percent in 1971-80 to nearly 8percent in 1980-84) and per caput farm incomes (from 0.5 to 5 percent per year during the same period). Yet, with the benefit of hindsight, we can now understand that these remarkable productivity gains were also based on a period of investment in agricultural infrastructure, extending from the 1950s, that the prevailing centralized agricultural marketing and procurement policies had failed to exploit. This experience of adjustment underlined the importance of agricultural development policies being appropriate across a range of policy aspects, and not just with respect to one aspect. Food security In the mid-1980s, concern about the gravity of the economic crisis and its wide spread effects on the poor led FAO to reappraise the concept of food security. The new concept focused on three pivotal elements: food availability, stability of supplies and access to supplies. Former approaches to food security emphasized the supply side - food availability and supply stability - in particular through the building and maintenance of adequate levels of food stocks at the national and/or regional and international levels. The new concept added demand-side considerations relating to access to food through own production orexchange for earnings from agricultural or non-agricultural activities. Thefirst half of the 1980s also witnessed another major shock: famine in Africa.In January 1983, FAO's GIEWS reported for the first time on the catastrophic consequences of drought in southern Africa. This was followed by increasingly alarming news from this and other regions of the continent. In the course of1984, one of the region's worst droughts of the century reached its peak, searing countries mostly in the Sahel and in southern and eastern Africa. In some cases, the disruptions caused by crop failures were exacerbated by civil strife. Famine engulfed an estimated 20 percent of Ethiopia's population, and entire traditional cultures in the Sahel were on the verge of collapse.Hundreds of thousands of people died in the countries affected. The response to the crisis in Africa was generous and prevented an even greater catastrophe. The existing systems of information, including GIEWS, functioned much more efficiently than at the time of the previous major African food crisis, 12 years earlier. A historically unprecedented outpouring of food aid -about 7 million tonnes of cereals in 1985 and 1986 - arrived in stricken areas.The lessons of the emergency prompted FAO to propose the adoption of a World Food Security Compact, whereby member countries were called on to make everyeffort to uproot the causes of hunger. Although the Compact had special relevance to the food crisis in Africa as well as to the situation in many countries in other regions where agriculture had long been neglected and where the economy was vulnerable to external shocks, it was not widely supported.Possibly, the idea of a Compact was too legally binding at a time when governments were avoiding commitments. Financing agricultural and rural development Flows of financial resources to developing countries, often under concessionary terms,increased rapidly from the early 1970s and continued into the 1980s. Such external flows rose by between 5 and 6 percent per year in real (i.e. constant price)terms during this period. Flows from domestic sources, often arising from loose fiscal policies and resulting in rising budgetary deficits, also increased.This trend was possibly spurred by the Pearson Report of 1969, but also by the widely held belief that government-sponsored investments funded by increasing flows of financial resources would accelerate economic growth and agricultural and rural development. However, following the financial crises of the early 1980s and the process of economic stabilization and structural adjustment notedabove, these flows stagnated and even declined from the middle of the 1980s as aid fatigue on the part of bilateral and multilateral donors, together with harsh economic realities, took their toll - private foreign direct investment(FDI) virtually ceased, except to a few privileged countries, mainly in Asia. The State of Food and Agriculture 1986 dedicated a special chapter to this issue. Entitled Financing agricultural development,the chapter's analysis drew attention to the unsustainable financial imbalances faced by many developing economies. It also noted the shift that had taken place in conventional thinking, after 30 to 40 years of development efforts based on belief in the primal role of the public sector, and particularly its fiscal policies, in promoting economic growth. Another line of thinking that had supported the major role of external assistance in this effort was based on the two gap thesis: chronic shortages of capital and foreign exchange posed severe constraints to development. The experience of the first half of the 1980s raised serious questions regarding such thinking. Balanced government budgets and investment project qualitybecame overriding concerns. The chapter drew attention to ways of mobilizing domestic rural savings for investment, instead of relying excessively on external assistance or loose fiscal policies, and to the need to search for policies that would attract private funds that did not create external debt,i.e. equity. It may now be noted that this period marked a shift in the ongoing analysis of the development process towards a deeper appreciation of the importance to development of institutions, including markets forces, transaction costs,property rights, etc., and hence it signalled the emergence of the new institutional economics in the 1990s. A new emphasis on effective institutions for developmentled to new policy recommendations. Environmental protection, natural resource management and sustainable development Public concern in these areas evolved considerably during the 1980s. Concern was mobilized by ever increasing alerts against forest devastation, depletion andwaste of fisheries resources, the greenhouse effect of increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other gases on global temperatures, or the long-term damage being done by some industrial gases to the world's protective ozone layer. The year1987 marked an important step in the publication of two reports: the Report of the World Commission on the Environment andDevelopment ( the Brundtland Report), which was submittedto the UN General Assembly that year; and UNEP's Environmental perspective to the year 2000 and beyond . These reports drew wide spread attention to the concept of sustainable development, aconcept that evolved further in the following decade. The State of Food and Agriculture 1989 revisitedt he issue of sustainable development and natural resource management, already partially addressed in 1977. It sought to make the concept of sustainable development operational and identified a number of areas for concrete actionalong the following lines: the developed countries must pursue economic goals without the current levels of inacceptable environmental damage to themselves and other nations; there must be a serious examinationof the survival strategies of the poor, to the extent that these result in overexploitation of the resources on which they depend; broad strategies must be devised forthe various types, combinations and quality of land and water resources and the uses they serve - low- and high-potential lands, forests, fisheries and,through these, genetic reserve areas; there should be greater integration of economic and environmental considerations and an adequate accounting of thecosts of environmental degradation involved in development strategies,programmes and projects. Several important events took place addressing issues of concern to the fisheries and forestry sectors. UNCLOS III completed its work at the end of April 1982 when it adopted the International Convention on the Law of the Sea, which was opened for signature in December 1982. This Convention, together with state practice,resulted in the expansion of the coastal state authority over fisheries resources to a distance of 200 nautical miles from the shore. Many coastal states thus acquired not only new opportunities but also weighty problems,responsibilities and challenges. Inmid-1984, FAO organized the World Conference on Fisheries Management and Development, which was the first international initiative to confront thepractical realities of the new legal regime of the sea, signed in 1982. The Conference was an important occasion in the evolution of governance of the world's fisheries. It was the first time that nearly all nations came togetherto reach agreements on comprehensive action to confront the practical implications of the new ocean regime and to improve management of the potential of fisheries as a vital source of food, employment and income. To assistd eveloping countries in boosting the productivity and conditions of fishers,the 1984 Conference endorsed a strategy and an integrated package of five programmes of action on: the planning, management and development of fisheries;the development of small-scale fisheries; aquaculture development;international trade in fish and fishery products; and the promotion of the roleof fisheries in alleviating undernutrition. In Mexico in July 1985 - the International Year of the Forest - under the themeForest Resources in the Integral Development of Society, the Ninth World Forestry Congress focused in particular on forest degradation and destruction arising from poverty in tropical and arid regions. The Congressemphasized the importance and urgency of the Tropical Forestry Action Plan,adopted by the FAO Committee on Forest Development in the Tropics earlier that year. It was also in 1985 that the FAO Conference adopted the International Code of Conducton the Distribution and Use of Pesticides. This code constituted the first steptowards the establishment of international rules for the safe handling and useof pesticides and their trade. Trade negotiations and issues An importantevent in international trade, which took place against a background ofincreasing tension among agricultural trading nations, was the launching inSeptember 1986 of the Uruguay Round of MTNs. For the first time in a GATT round of MTNs, special prominence was given to agriculture. In the Declaration that formally announced the launch of the Uruguay Round, ministers agreed thatthere is an urgent need to bring more discipline and predictability to world agricultural trade by correcting and preventing restrictions and distortions, including those related to structural surpluses so as to reducethe uncertainty, imbalances and instability in world agricultural markets. There was a marked turnaround in the world agricultural market situation in 1987/88.Some important agricultural commodity markets shifted from a situation of surplus to one of relative scarcity and, after having fallen to their lowestlevels in many years, international prices increased significantly. World stocks of many commodities were sharply reduced from previous high levels. The first significant year of recovery for agricultural commodity prices in the 1980s was not until 1988, and this recovery was mainly confined to sugar, cereals and oilseeds and their products. Tropical beverage prices remained depressed. In the case of cereals, a dramatic rise in prices was theresult of two years of reduced production, with the 1988 drought in North America being of particular significance. However, for many commodities, pricesduring this boom period still did not reach the levels of the early 1980s, even in nominal terms. In real terms, export prices of agricultural commodities in1988 averaged only three quarters of their 1980 levels. Box 16 THE EVOLUTION OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE RULES The General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) came into force in 1947 as a framework for negotiating tariff concessions and for regulating international trade. GATT was initially envisaged as part of an International Trade Organization (ITO) designed to deal with a broad range of trade-related issues (e.g. employment, development, restrictive business practices and commodity policy) in addition to the specific subject of tariffs and trade (commercial policy). However, Member Governments never ratified the ITO Charter. As a result, GATT came into being as a provisional or interim arrangement, and remained without a formal organizational framework until the conclusion of the Uruguay Round Agreement in 1994. At this point, it was subsumed under the World Trade Organization (WTO) - which took effect on 1 January 1995 - as GATT 1994. When GATT began in 1947, there were 23 contracting parties (countries) and the value of world trade was US 10 billion . BytheendoftheUruguayRound , the 8 thtradenegotiatingroundunderGATT , therewere 128 contractingpartiesandthevalueofworldtradehadreachedUS 5 000 billion, of which 12 percent was trade in agriculture. Trade rules established under GATT were based on four general principles: reciprocity, i.e. one country grants tariff concessions in exchange for similar concessions from other partners; non-discrimination, embodied in the most favoured nation (MFN) clause, which says that any concession granted to one contracting party is to be automatically extended to all; national treatment, which prohibits discrimination in importing countries between imported and domestically produced products; and a tariff only regime, whereby only ordinary tariffs - bound in schedules of concessions - are to be used for regulating imports. GATT 1947 contained 38 Articles or rules to give effect to these basic principles as well as to address several other issues, particularly the settlement of disputes and remedies (trade measures) against, for example, unfair trade practices (dumping, export subsidies) and sudden surges of imports (safeguards). In the case of trade in agricultural products, some of these articles also provided exceptions to the general GATT rules. The treatment of agriculture in GATT Although the original GATT did not have an explicit set of rules for agriculture (e.g. as under the current WTO), there were two notable exemptions for agricultural products from the general rules. One exemption was from the general prohibition on the use of quantitative import restrictions, and the other was from the prohibition on the use of export subsidies. These exceptions for agriculture were partly due to the existence of extensive price and income support programmes in the leading countries of the postwar era. Many of these policies had been introduced in response to the Great Depression of the 1930s and the associated collapse of agricultural incomes, and also as part of the wartime regulation of the agrifood sector in many countries. It was expected that many of these measures would have to continue for some time to promote agricultural recovery and to offset the expected slump in postwar agricultural prices. By 1947, there were only a small number of countries where agricultural policies were being implemented in a systematic manner. Among these countries, the United States was the only major agricultural exporter, followed by Australia and some others, notably Canada, Argentina and New Zealand. The United States Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1933, with its extensions and amendments, permitted the United States authorities to utilize tariffs and quantitative import controls as well as export subsidies to stabilize domestic producer prices, and the concept of parity between farm and non-farm incomes continued to command strong support. For its part, Europe was just recovering from the war and food security was a critical issue - although the formation of the European Economic Community and its Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) came much later with the Treaty of Rome in 1956. A great majority of the developing countries were still under colonial rule or had just gained independence. It was against this background - the widespread food insecurity problems in most parts of the world, including Europe, and the declining ratio of farm to non-farm incomes in some countries - that the exceptions for agriculture were written into GATT. The original GATT rules did not prohibit export subsidies initially, nor did they prohibit domestic subsidies. However, in 1955, a Protocol to the General Agreement added the prohibition on export subsidies on all but primary products, subject to the condition that a subsidizing country does not capture more than an equitable share of world export trade in the subsidized agricultural product. As regards the prohibition of quantitative import restrictions, initially GATT rules exempted agricultural and fishery products from this rule only when such restrictions were used in order to implement domestic policies that operate to restrict the production or marketing of the like products, or to remove a temporary surplus. However, in 1955, the United States obtained a GATT waiver to apply import restrictions even where there were no production-limiting or marketing policies in place. This affected in particular the imports of sugar, groundnuts and dairy products. This waiver lasted until the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture came into effect. In retrospect, many emerging agricultural trading nations took advantage of this precedent as well as the other exceptions for agriculture from the general GATT rules. These, together with a proliferation in the use of grey area measures (e.g. voluntary export restraints, minimum export prices, variable levies) in the 1960s and 1970s, effectively kept agriculture out of GATT. It was thus on the three areas of quantitative restrictions, domestic support and protection and export subsidies that much attention was focused during the Uruguay Round negotiations on agriculture and in the resulting Agreement on Agriculture. The Uruguay Round - what it achieved and what remains to be done By the early 1980s, as a result of increasing frictions in trade relations in the agricultural sector, it became widely recognized that world agricultural trade was in disarray, a term used to characterize distortions caused by the lack of effective GATT disciplines. These distortions were widespread mainly in the temperate zone food products. The Uruguay Round was thus launched in 1986 against the background of very high levels of domestic support to producers (about 60 percent of the value of agricultural production in OECD countries in 1986-88), which necessitated export subsidies to dispose of the surpluses on world markets; growing trade tensions including export subsidy wars; and, high budgetary costs of farm policies of the industrialized countries. An important factor during the negotiations was the explicit recognition that domestic agricultural support policies mattered for trade and also needed to be disciplined. The key results reflected in the Agreement on Agriculture may be summarized as follows: On domestic support measures, rules were laid down to stipulate which measures have the potential to distort trade, and so need to be disciplined, and which should be permitted. The outlays on the former were benchmarked for the base period and were to be gradually reduced over the implementation period. WTO members must not exceed their support outlays over the set limits. On market access , it was agreed that all non-tariff import restrictions should be prohibited and that trade should be regulated with ordinary tariffs only. Most of the agricultural tariffs were bound for the first time, and agreed percentage cuts were to be phased in over the implementation period. Given the high level of tariffs resulting from the conversion to a tariff-only regime in agriculture (tariffication), minimum and current access tariff quotas were introduced. On export competition , an agreement was reached on what constitutes export subsidies and, as with domestic support outlays, benchmarks were established for the base period and were to be reduced over the implementation period. WTO members may not exceed the subsidy limits thus determined. Provisions were made for special and differential treatment for the developing countries, which were allowed a longer implementation period, lower rates of reductions, exemptions from certain disciplines that applied to the developed countries and promises of technical and financial assistance. The Agreement on Agriculture was also complemented by a number of other Uruguay Round Agreements and Decisions, such as the Decision on Measures Concerning the Possible Negative Effects of the Reform Programme on Least-Developed and Net Food-Importing Developing Countries, which addresses some remedial measures in the event of food import difficulties related to the reform process in agriculture. The Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures and the Agreement on Technical Barriers to Trade were formulated to ensure that regulations that have a trade-restrictive effect are applied only to the extent necessary to protect human, animal or plant life. In conclusion, the most important contribution of the Uruguay Round was to bring the rules governing agricultural trade much closer to but not fully in line with the GATT rules because current rules still permit certain measures that are not allowed for non-agricultural products, notably export subsidies. As a result, the Uruguay Round Agreements may not have significantly reduced distortions in world agricultural trade. Nevertheless, the Agreement on Agriculture provides a framework for further reforms and Article 20 of this Agreement provides for further negotiations to continue the reform process through substantial and progressive reductions in support and protection. These negotiations were started in March 2000. Social issues In anticipation of the 1985 World Conference to Review and Appraise the Achievements of the United Nations Decade for Women, which was launched in1975, the special chapter of TheState of Food and Agriculture 1983 aimed at raising wider awareness ofgender issues in the field of food and agriculture. Entitled Women indeveloping agriculture, it discussed the particular problems of women on farmsand in rural areas, as well as their important contributions to food productionand marketing and to rural entrepreneurship. It also discussed current issuesrelating to the difficulties and inequities encountered by women, the effects of agricultural modernization on their condition and the need for development projects to reach them. A further aim was not to have development activitiesand institutions set aside for women but to mainstream genderissues within the overall development effort. Also in line with the rising concern shown for social issues during the 1980s, the 1984issue had a special chapter on Urbanization, agriculture and food systems. It examined the problems and opportunities created by urbanization in developing countries as they relate to the production of food and its distribution tourban populations. It made the point that urbanization and migration were not self-adjusting processes and, if not controlled or directed to some degree,could result in deteriorating living conditions for both rural and urbanpeople. It concluded that rural-urban migration, rapid urbanization and the excessive rise of major cities could be modified by government actions so that the negative effects of overly rapid modernization on agrarian societies could be eased. Such measures might consist simply in the removal of an urban bias in agricultural policies or the coordination of such policies. In other cases,more specific measures might be required, involving movements of people from one area to another or the transfer of jobs to rural people. These measures could range from assisting spontaneous rural-rural migration to more elaborate and expensive government-sponsored settlement schemes and rural industrialization programmes. Policies designed to control the overall rate ofpopulation growth over the long term would make the situation easier to manage.
《世界粮食与农业--过去50年的教训》 二十世纪六十年代 摘译自（FAO）出版的《THE STATE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 2000》一书 ·粮食与能源危机以及较不稳定的发展环境 ·世界粮食大会 ·非洲的饥荒 ·土改与农村发展世界大会 ·环境问题，贸易争端 ·渔业及海洋法 二十世纪七十年代是战后发展环境的转折点，一系列令人震惊的事件给国际秩序带来了不安定的因素，很多发展中国家所想像的稳定的经济增长、相对可预测的市场和价格及大量的国际粮食储备都化为泡影。新的不稳定环境是美元贬值，石油价格陡涨，粮食产量不足以及粮价、农资价格和以石油为基础的能源价格暴涨的结果。经济秩序的极端变化为有些国家（主要是石油输出国）带来了大笔财富，同时也为有些国家创造了出口市场，但损害了很多不发达国家的发展前景。 世界粮食危机 和1970年以前的十年相比，七十年代呈现出农业的一系列衰退迹象。1972年全球粮食生产下滑，1974年再次下滑，主要是由于粮食生产国的气候条件对农业生产不利。1972年世界禾谷类粮食产量减少了4100万吨，发达国家和发达中国家皆出现减产；1974年减产3000万吨。这几年粮食的减产使库存粮食急剧减少，尤其是传统的粮食出口国。世界小麦库存从1971年的5000万吨下降到1973年的2700万吨，为20年来的最低水平。由于亚洲主要稻米消费国的水稻产量下降使水稻供应也出现短缺。世界所有地区所有食品的销售价格上涨，给穷人造成了苦难，降低了人民的营养水平，特别是降低了脆弱人群的营养水平。亚撒哈拉非洲地区遭受到严重的苦难，二十世纪七十年代前5年其粮食生产处于停滞状态。 虽然1973年世界粮食生产得到了恢复，粮食产量增加1亿吨，但增加的粮食尚不足以抵消主要出口国粮食库存的减少量（尤其在北美国家），而且在粮食增产地也不能阻止粮食价格的持续上涨。世界农业还受到能源危机、通货膨胀、货币不稳定、工业化国家经济增长缓慢和大环境的不稳定的极大冲击。 二十世纪七十年代头5年中，区域水平和本地水平严峻的粮食短缺与全球农业生产衰退相吻合。两次大的旱灾后非洲爆发剧烈的粮食危机，一次持久的旱灾发生在萨赫勒国家，如乍得、马里、毛里求斯、尼日尔、塞内加尔等国。1973年，旱灾达到高峰，该年度中萨赫勒国家的人均粮食产量只有1961-1965年平均水平的1/3，有10万人死于这次饥荒，而饥荒又是疾病流行的根源，在拯救帐篷中的情况尤其如此。1973年初，为了挽救生命，大量的国际紧急援助开始启动。在萨赫勒建立的永久抗旱国家间委员会就是这次持续干旱的直接结果。 1972至1974年，另一场干旱造成了埃塞俄比亚的饥荒。由于国际援助太迟，以至使总人口只有2700万人的国家中有5万至20万人丧生，受灾最严重的有渥罗、提格拉依、哈里格黑几个省，受灾最严重的是那些偏远地区的游牧民。 FAO内外广泛地讨论了埃塞俄比亚饥荒的原因和后果，但当年出版的《粮食与农业状况》却令人惊讶地只字不提。几年以后，SEN在报告中解释了原因，他写道：“埃塞俄比亚饥荒是在粮食的不正常减少情况下发生的，1973年饥荒高潮时埃塞俄比亚的人均粮食消费量总体来讲是正常的。而1973年渥罗省的粮食产量极剧减少，而渥罗省又不能利用外面的粮食是该省购买力低的结果，渥罗省饥荒的显著特征是粮价几乎没有上涨，即使粮食售价与旱灾发生前相似，人们还是死于饥饿。这种现象可以理解为渥罗省的各个部门间普遍的权力失效。 美元贬值和能源危机 七十年代早期还有两大事件对世界经济造成了持久的影响，包括对农业生产和贸易的影响。第一件大事是1971年8月美国政府暂停美元的固定黄金可兑换性，这意味着美元相对于其它国际贸易货币的贬值。对发展中国家而言，由于它们的经济对国际价格波动的脆弱性，货币的重新校准会对发展中国家的经济产生极大的负效应。第二件大事是1973年石油输出国组织（DPEC）对美元贬值作出反应，决定大幅度提高原油价格，从而造成全球恐慌。世界原油出口价格指数从1973年的196上升至1974年的641，而1970年为100。对农业而言，这意味着以石油为基础的农资如化肥、农药成本剧烈上涨，同时也使对农业具有重要意义的灌溉、农业运输、销售、加工所需的燃料和能源成本大幅上涨。1974年一年间化肥价格翻了一番，甚至四番，全球化肥用量下降近400万吨，导致减少了100万吨植物营养。在联合国第六次特别会议（1974年4月至5月2日）上证实有42个发展中国家因必须进口产品（粮食、石油、化肥）价格的急剧上涨而受到非常严重的影响。联合国建立了特殊基金来帮助这些国家减轻其经济苦难。FAO建立了国际化肥供应计划，在1974/75年间向作物受影响最严重的国家提供了7.3万吨化肥。 1976年的《粮食与农业状况》有专门的章节报道了“能源与农业”这个主题，文中得出结论认为燃料与化肥价格的上涨使能源消耗集中的农业投入利润急剧下降，尤其是园艺、畜牧生产、捕捞、水产养殖业；同时文中陈述了在利用国内能源提高进口农业投入利用效率，动植物残留的循环利用和农业机具的选择方面还有很大的发展空间。 世界粮食大会 1974年的世界粮食大会建立了农业发展和农业与食品供应监测机构 二十世纪七十年代初期的粮食危机和石油价格陡涨所带来的困境促使1974年在FAO和UN的联合支持下世界粮食大会的召开。大会旨在确保全世界在价格和计划方面的一致性，从而提高粮食产量和生产力，尤其是在发展中国家；改善粮食消费和分配；建立更有效的世界粮食安全机制，包括预警制度、有效的持股政策，紧急粮食救援制度；建立更有序的农业贸易与调整制度。 大会的主题是建立和保持国家或地区级以及国际充足的粮食储备水平。这些粮食储备预期要能够为本地、全国或地区粮食紧急情况提供保障，从而满足国际救援的需要。《粮食与农业状况》提供了定期的国家储备政策发展情况。二十世纪七十年代前五年对粮食安全的认证还只是针对供应方面。世界粮食大会还强调了降低人口增长率和减少农村失业人口和减少就业不足人口的重要性，使农业生产多样化，拓展依靠农业耕作和非农业创收的渠道。在当时创建的机构中（见附4）至今仍然有3个在起作用，即国际农业发展基金会（IFAD）、全球信息与预警系统（GIEWS）、世界粮食安全委员会（CFS）。 附5 世界粮食大会 1974年的世界粮食大会号召： 1. 建立世界粮食委员会作为一种协调机构，全面地综合地而且连续地关注粮食生产、营养、粮食安全、粮食贸易和粮食援助以及其它有关问题所涉及的政策的协调和追踪。 2.立即建立国际农业发展基金（IFAD），“主要为发展中国家粮食生产的农业发展项目提供资金”，特别是针对贫困的农民。 3.建立发展中国家粮食生产和投资顾问小组，该小组由“双边和多边资助者及发展中国家代表组成”。 这次大会还进行了以下几方面的工作： 4.认同了保证世界粮食安全国际事务的目标、政策和指导原则。（注：世界粮食安全国际事务于1974年发起，号召世界各国自愿参与到这项行动中，确定储备足够的粮食以备粮食短缺和紧急情况之需，减少世界粮食生产和粮价的大幅波动。） 5.登促粮农组织建立世界粮食安全委员会（CFS），并将它作为粮农组织委员会的常务委员会，“在连续的考察中使基本粮食制品满足当前的供需和储备，……对目前和将来的出口国、进口国及总体粮食储备水平进行阶段性的评估。 6.推荐了粮食援助事前计划的概念，要求援助国“从1975年起每年提供至少相当于1000万吨粮食的物资援助或资金援助，同时提供足够数量的其它粮食商品”。 世界土地改革和农村发展大会 进口替代政策导致了过分强调工业化，从而使农村人口向城区迁移，这种现象说明需要更多地关注农村发展。 由国际劳工组织纪律（ILO）执行的几项研究强调，单靠经济增长不足以保证均衡持续的发展，还应该考虑财富的分配和政治权力的划分。在这方面，特别关注土地的拥有权和土地租赁法的改革。第二个联合国发展十年计划（1970-1980）也强调要将农村发展作为战胜贫困、缩小城乡差别发展战略不可分割的一部分。第二个十年发展计划进一步强调建立全国就业目标的重要性，在现代非农业活动中吸纳更多的劳动力。1973年的《粮食与农业状况》对1950至1970年农业就业情况进行了调整，同时对1980、1990、2000年的情况进行了预测。调查表明，发达国家的农业人口在整个经济活动中所占的比例从1950年的38%下降到1970年的21%，预计2000年全球农业人口为55%左右，劳动力从农业转向其它行业的速度比预期的慢。 1972年《粮食与农业状况》有专门的章节报道了有关发展方面的讨论，标题是“发展教育与培训”。该章节概述了发展中国家和地区的农村教育，介绍了人力资源计划战略，农村教育和培训过程的优先设置，以及有关培训教师、推广人员的培训，年轻人的能力建设，教学辅导和交流媒介等有关的问题。 对这些问题和有关农村发展的其它社会问题的深入的正确评价后，1979年召开了“土地改革和农村发展世界大会”。这次大会是探索解轻农村贫困的方法的里程碑。“土地改革和农村发展大会”由联合国粮农组织发起，这次大会采用在17个主要地区被称为“农村宪章”的《原则宣言》和包括土地改革和农村发展的国际政策及发展中国家的国家行动计划的《行动计划》。《行动计划》包括土地改革和农村发展的监督，知识的分析和传播，技术援助的提供，对资源流动的支持。 联合国人居环境大会 1971年“罗马俱乐部”出版的《增长的限制》引起了人们对环境问题的关注。这本书的出版向世界人口增长和废物的大量堆积所带来的世界资源状况恶化敲响了警钟。二十世纪七十年代早期秘鲁渔业的崩溃提示我们过去认为的永不枯竭的资源的脆弱性。 环境恶化问题和解决恶化问题的措施是1972年联合国人居环境大会的主题。这次大会在斯特哥尔摩召开。大会通过了“斯特哥尔摩宣言”和包括与经济有关的所有行业的环境问题的109项决议的“行动计划”，109项决议中有51项与自然资源管理有关。大多数决议是专门关于联合国粮农组织的，涵盖了农村发展、环境计划、土壤管理与肥力、病虫防治、农业污废物的循环利用、遗传资源、森林和水产资源的监测、渔业管理。斯特哥尔摩大会加速了联合国环境署的建立，该署于1973年建于南非内罗毕。然而其推荐措施的前瞻性可能超前于当时的公众思想。又过了十几年才见到大量的全球范围的环境恶化现象——森林毁坏，臭氧层破坏、大气中温室气体增加、海洋污染等等，赢得了公众对环境问题采取措施的支持。 联合国环境署建立后，对环境问题的关注一直是联合国粮农组织的议事日程。1971年的《粮食与农业状况》中有专门章节综述了水污染对水生生物资源和渔业的影响，确定了水污染的主要特征，追踪了水污染对鱼类的生物学和生态学效应。这一章引起人们对水污染的地区差异的关注，提出了监测这种污染现象的监测标准和监测体系，同时提出了降低污染实现可持续发展所要采取的法律措施和政府所要采取的措施。 继1972年斯特哥尔摩大会后，1977年《粮食与农业状况》又有专门的章节介绍了自然资源和人文环境状况，包括土壤、水、草原、饲料资源、森林、野生动物、鱼类、遗传资源，分析了农业集约化对环境的影响，以及避免自然资源退化和环境污染所采取的法律措施。报道中指出，发达国家环境污染的主要原因是高水平的工业化和对能量集约型农业体系的依赖。另一方面，发展中国家的主要环境问题不是污染而是自然资源的退化和枯竭。本章提出了更好的数据收集方法，通过多学科研究分析了不同土地利用计划对自然资源的生产力的影响，运用当地的知识提高自然资源的利用率，建立合适的机构体系和法律体系来进行自然资源的管理。 人口和粮食供应 1974年8月在罗马尼亚首都布加勒斯特举行的“联合国世界人口大会”上，人们广泛关注自然资源基础和人口增长率日益升高之间可能出现的不平衡。 大会采纳“世界人口行动计划”，此计划特别关注粮食生产不断增加和生产力不断提高的重要性，以便发展中国家能够以合理的价格获得粮食。在1974年《粮食与农业状况》“人口、粮食供应与农业发展”一章中报道了联合国粮农组织对布加勒斯特大会所作的贡献；本章还分析了1952—1972年间人口增长和粮食供应的趋势，注意到了提高粮食生产的可能性，强调了饥饿和营养不良的原因和影响范围及影响粮食的长期需求的因素。 渔业 1975年3月17日至5月9日在日内瓦召开了第三次联合国海洋法大会，但对海洋和海底开采权等重大问题没有达成一致意见。越来越多的沿海国家将其对渔业的管辖权扩大到12海里的限制以外，而12海里的限制范围是300年前普遍采用的方法。1979年联合国粮农组织大会采用的唯一经济区（EEZs）为FAO的渔业工作增加了新的空间。在新的海洋立法范围内，沿海国家的水产资源以EEZs的形式直接置于其国家管辖之下。 1980年的《粮食与农业状况》有专门章节报道了由国家管辖的新时期的海洋渔业，这一章综述了沿海渔业因国际共同体接受基于EEZs的管辖权后所带来的机遇和挑战，解释了海洋法的修改对沿海国家鱼类捕捞和开放捕捞的影响，沿海国家的调整问题和对具有大型远海舰队的国家影响，EEZs对鱼类的国际贸易和新体制下沿海渔业管理的影响。 贸易扩张：东京回合多边贸易磋商 二十世纪七十年代国际贸易迅速扩张，主要是由于石油价格上涨和国家财富的重新分配所引起的。农业贸易也有所增长，但不是所有国家都享受到了这种好处。从其进口的工业品的价格通胀来看，主要出口热带农产品的不发达国家的收入严重下降。能源上新增的花费高于其主要农产品出口价值的增加。 1973年发起了关贸总协定下的东京回合多边贸易磋商。尝试通过一系列国际商品协定将对国内农业市场的干预延伸到国际贸易中，结果没能具体化。这轮回合的磋商达成了一定的农业协定，标志着政府在国际农业市场的进一步参与，在随后的10年继续成为一种趋势。 THE 1970s Food and energy crises and a less stable development environment the World Food Conference, Famines in Africa the World Conference on Agrarian Reform and Rural Development Environmental concerns, Trade issues Fisheries and the Law of the Sea The early 1970s marked a turning point in the pattern that had characterized the postwar environment for development. A series of shocks introduced elements of instability to an international order under which steady economic growth, relatively predictable markets and prices and large international food stocks were taken for granted in the case of many developing countries. The new unstable environment resulted from the de facto devaluation of the US dollar; a sharp increase in the price of petroleum; and, in the area of agriculture, large grain production shortfalls and soaring prices of food, agricultural inputs and petroleum-based energy. This radical shift in the economic order brought large income gains to some countries (mainly petroleum exporters) and created export market opportunities for others but damaged the development prospects of many less developed countries. Soaring petroleum prices had an adverse effect on most developing countries and the agricultural sector, although they brought large income gains to petroleum-exporting developing countries. The world food crisis In comparison with the previous ten years, the 1970s were marked by a series of relapses in world agriculture. Global food production declined in 1972 and again in 1974, reflecting in both cases unfavourable weather conditions in major food-producing areas. In 1972, world production of cereals was reduced by 41 million tonnes, shared equally between developed and developing regions, and by 30 million tonnes in 1974. These declines resulted in a sharp depletion of stocks, especially in the traditional cereal-exporting countries: world stocks of wheat were drawn down from 50 million tonnes in 1971 to 27 million tonnes in 1973, the lowest level for 20 years. Rice was also in short supply owing to falls in production in the major rice-consuming countries of Asia. Consumer prices of food items rose in all regions of the world, causing hardship for the poor and reducing the level of nutrition, particularly of vulnerable population groups. Hardship was more severe in sub-Saharan Africa, where per caput food production had remained stagnant during the first half of the 1970s. Although world food production recovered in 1973 (cereal ouput increased by 100 million tonnes), the recovery was insufficient to prevent the depletion of cereal stocks in the main exporting countries, especially in North America, nor could it halt the steady rise in the prices of food. World agriculture was also afflicted by the energy crisis, inflation, monetary instability, the slowing down of economic growth in the industrialized countries and a general atmosphere of uncertainty. This global relapse of agricultural production coincided with grave food shortage situations at regional and local levels in the first half of the 1970s. A dramatic food crisis erupted in Africa following two catastrophic droughts. On e was the prolonged drought in the Sahel countries (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, the Niger and Senegal), which reached its peak in 1973. In that year, net food production per caput in the Sahel countries was on e third less than the average for 1961-65 and some 100 000 people died as a result of the famine, which was also instrumental in the spread of epidemic diseases, especially in the relief camps. To save lives, a massive international emergency relief operation was started in early 1973. The creation of the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) was the direct consequence of this prolonged drought. The other drought caused the Ethiopian famine which lasted from 1972 to 1974. International aid arrived too late and between 50 000 and 200 000 lives were lost in a population of 27 million. The areas worst affected were the provinces of Wollo, Tigrai and Harerghe. The people who suffered most were the Afar community of nomadic pastoralists. The Ethiopian famine and its causes and consequences have been extensively discussed within and outside FAO but contemporary issues of The State of Food and Agriculture were surprisingly silent about it. As for its causes, several years later Amartya Sen wrote: The Ethiopian famine took place with no abnormal reduction of food output, and consumption of food per head in the height of the famine in 1973 was fairly normal for Ethiopia as a whole. While the food output in Wollo was substantially reduced in 1973, the inability of Wollo to command food from outside was the result of the low purchasing power in that province. A remarkable feature of the Wollo famine is that food prices in general rose very little, and people were dying of starvation even when food was selling at prices not very different from pre-drought levels. The phenomenon can be understood in terms of extensive entitlement failures of various sections of the Wollo population. 4 Devaluation of the dollar and the energy crisis The early part of the decade was marked by two other events with long-lasting effects on the world economy, including agricultural production and trade. The first was the decision by the United States Government in August 1971 to suspend the fixed-gold convertibility of the US dollar, which meant a devaluation of the US dollar vis-à-vis other internationally traded currencies. For the developing countries, the currency realignments had major negative repercussions because of the vulnerability of their economies to international price fluctuations. The second event, which caused worldwide panic, was the sharp rise in the price of crude petroleum, decided in 1973 by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in response to the devaluation of the US dollar (since petroleum prices are based on the dollar). The world export price index of crude petroleum rose from 196 in 1973 (1970 = 100) to 641 in 1974. For agriculture, this implied a sudden increase in the cost of petroleum-based inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides as well as fuel and power, which are of crucial imp ortance for irrigation and agricultural transport, marketing and processing. Fertilizer prices tripled and even quadrupled in the course of on e year and, in 1974, the world consumption of fertilizer dropped by nearly 4 million tonnes, resulting in an estimated shortfall of 1 million tonnes of plant nutrients in relation to projected demand. The UN, at its Sixth Special Session (9 April to 2 May 1974) identified 42 developing countries as being most seriously affected (MSA) by the sharp rise in the prices of essential imp orts (food, petroleum, fertilizers). It established a Special Fund to assist these countries in mitigating their economic hardships. FAO established the International Fertilizer Supply Scheme, which provided 73 000 tonnes of fertilizers to MSA countries in the 1974/75 crop year. The subject of energy and agriculture was covered in a special chapter of The State of Food and Agriculture 1976 ,which concluded that the rise in prices of fuel and fertilizers was causing sharp declines in the profitability of using energy-intensive inputs, particularly in horticulture and livestock production and capture and culture fisheries. It stated that there was much room for the economic use of domestic sources of energy for agriculture, raising efficiency in the use of imp orted inputs, recycling of plant and animal residues and being selective in the use of farm machinery. Box 14 AGRICULTURAL TRADE - CHANGING TRENDS AND PATTERNS Amid profound changes in the structure, direction and composition of world agricultural trade, a number of paradoxical features have emerged during the past decades. While losing relative imp ortance in total trade, agricultural exports have remained a key element in the economies of many countries. Nevertheless, those economies that depend less on agricultural trade have generally made the largest gains in agricultural market share, while economies that are more firmly based on agriculture have not on ly lost market share but, in many cases, have also seen their agricultural trade balances deteriorate in the face of persistently high or even increasing economic dependence on agricultural exports as well as dependence on imp orts for food security. Other general tendencies have been a decline in the real international prices of agricultural products and the growing imp ortance of value-added products compared with primary products in total agricultural trade. Declining imp ortance of agriculture in world trade Agricultural trade has expanded significantly faster than agricultural production over the past decades, underlying the growing interdependence and integration of the world's economies. Despite its relative dynamism, however, trade in agricultural products has tended to lag behind trade in other sectors, particularly manufactures. An imp ortant factor behind this process has been the decline in agricultural prices relative to manufactures. On a global basis, agricultural exports now account for less than 10 percent of merchandise exports, compared with about 25 percent in the early 1960s (Figure A). The tendency for agricultural trade to lose imp ortance in external trade has been common to all regions, but in the developing country regions the process was particularly pronounced in the 1960s and early 1970s. However, in Latin America and the Caribbean and in sub-Saharan Africa, agricultural exports still finance about on e fifth of the total imp ort bill. Economic dependence on agricultural exports has remained very high in many individual countries. In 1998, 12 out of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa depended on agriculture for half or more of their total export earnings. In Latin America and the Caribbean, 10 out of 37 countries were in the same situation (four in the Caribbean). Extreme cases, where 70 percent or more of export earnings were agriculture-based, included Belize and Paraguay in Latin America, and Burundi, C?te d'Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, Guinea-Bissau, Malawi, Uganda and the Sudan in Africa. Contracting developing country share in agricultural markets The regional distribution of world total and agricultural trade has undergone significant changes. While the developing countries gained market share for total merchandise exports between the early 1960s and recent years (from about 20 to more than 25 percent of the world total), their share for total agricultural exports has declined from more than 40 to about 27 percent (Figure B). All the developing country regions, with the exception of Asia and the Pacific, progressively lost world market share for their exports. That Asia and the Pacific has actually increased its share in world agricultural exports since the mid-1970s is all the more remarkable given that this is also the region that has been most successful in diversifying its export base away from agriculture. In contrast, despite the persistently strong agricultural component of its external trade, sub-Saharan Africa's presence in world agricultural markets has tended to lose significance since the early 1970s. Latin America and the Caribbean experienced pronounced market losses after the second half of the 1980s, a period of slow growth in the volume of agricultural exports and of strong decline in export prices (Figure C). Falling real agricultural prices Throughout the 1950s and 1960s international prices of food and non-food products remained relatively stable and on ly lagged slightly behind those of manufactured goods. The 1970s marked a new period of greater price volatility and divergence between agricultural and manufactured goods prices, with the latter tending to rise significantly faster than the former (Figure D). As a result, the net barter terms of trade (or real prices) of agricultural exports deteriorated markedly (Figure E). The decline in real agricultural prices was more pronounced for the developing than for the developed countries, reflecting the commodity composition of their exports, with those of temperate products typically exported by the developed countries showing a relatively firmer behaviour than those of tropical products overall. The volumes of exports, by contrast, showed a steady upward trend throughout much of the period. Nevertheless, because of the price increase differential, the current value of agricultural exports rose on the whole much faster in the developed countries than in the developing on es. Shifting from primary to processed exports An issue of considerable imp ortance is the extent to which the developing countries have been able to shift from exports of non-processed primary commodities towards value-added products. The different developing country regions recorded varying degrees of success on this account. In both Asia and the Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean the share of processed products in total agricultural exports rose from around 10 percent in the early 1960s to about on e third of the total in recent years. This share has risen to considerably higher levels in the more industrialized countries in these regions. Thus, in Argentina and Brazil the comparable figure is about 50 percent, while in Malaysia it is more than 70 percent. In sub-Saharan Africa, on the other hand, the share of processed products in agricultural exports has remained at about 15 percent throughout the past three decades. Behind this stagnating pattern some countries showed pronounced temporal variations. For most countries in the region, however, the general picture is on e of a high and undiminished dependence on a limited range of primary product exports. In the Near East and North Africa, the high share of value-added products in the total generally reflects the strong weight of a few processed products in a relatively small agricultural export base. Processed shellfish and other sea products, as well as canned and preserved fruits and vegetables, accounted for much of the total. The World Food Conference The world food crisis of the early 1970s and the difficulties created by the sharp rise in the cost of petroleum prices led to the convening of the World Food Conference in November 1974 under the joint auspices of FAO and the UN.The aims of the Conference were to secure international consensus on policies and programmes to increase food production and productivity, especially in developing countries; to improve the consumption and distribution of food; to put in place a more effective system of world food security, including an early warning system, effective stockholding policies and emergency food relief; and to bring about a more orderly system of agricultural trade and adjustment. The 1974 World Food Conference created institutions for agricultural development and the monitoring of agricultural and food supplies. The building and maintenance of adequate levels of food stocks at national and/or regional and international levels were a central theme of the Conference. These stocks were expected to provide food security guarantees against local, national or regional emergencies and also to cover international relief needs. The State of Food and Agriculture reflected this concern by providing regular accounts of developments in national stock policies. Thus, the perception of food security in the first half of the 1970s was still firmly supply-side oriented. Nevertheless, the World Food Conference also stressed the need for lowering the population growth rate and reducing rural unemployment and underemployment by diversifying agriculture and expanding on-farm and off-farm income-generating activities. Of its institutional initiatives (see Box 15), three remain today - the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), the Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) and the Committee on World Food Security (CFS). Box 15 THE SIX INTERNATIONAL INITIATIVES OF THE WORLD FOOD CONFERENCE The 1974 World Food Conference called for: 1. A World Food Council to be established to serve as a co-ordinating mechanism to provide overall, integrated and continuing attention for the successful co-ordination and follow-up of policies concerning food production, nutrition, food security, food trade and food aid, as well as other related matters....; 2. An International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) to be established immediately to finance agricultural development projects primarily for food production in developing countries, focusing in particular on poor peasant farmers; 3. A Consultative Group on Food Production and Investment in Developing Countries to be established and be composed of bilateral and multilateral donors and representatives of developing countries....; The Conference: 4. Endorsed the objectives, policies and guidelines of the International Undertaking on World Food Security 1 and welcomed the creation by FAO of GIEWS. 5. Urged FAO to establish the Committee on World Food Security (CFS) as a standing committee of the FAO Council to, inter alia , keep the current and prospective demand, supply and stock position of basic food stuffs under continuous review, ... to make periodic evaluations of the adequacy of current and prospective stock levels, in aggregate, in exporting and imp orting countries....; 6. Recommended the concept of forward planning for food aid and called on donor countries to provide commodities and/or financial assistance that will ensure in physical terms at least 10 million tons of grains as food aid a year, starting from 1975, and also to provide adequate quantities of other food commodities. 1 The International Undertaking on World Food Security, launched in 1974, called on countries to participate voluntarily in programmes to secure adequate food reserves for use in times of shortages and emergencies and for reducing fluctuations in production and prices. The World Conference on Agrarian Reform and Rural Development The disproportionate emphasis on industrialization resulting from the policy of imp ort substitution, and the consequential migration of rural people to urban centres, brought to the surface the need for greater attention to rural development. A number of studies carried out by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) stressed that economic growth alone was not enough to ensure balanced and sustained development. The distribution of wealth and political power also had to be taken into account. In this respect, access to land and the reform of tenancy laws were given special attention. The United Nations Second Development Decade (1970-1980) also underlined the need for treating rural development as an integral part of the development strategy in combating poverty and narrowing the income gap between rural and urban families. The Second Development Decade had further stressed the imp ortance of establishing national employment objectives and the need to absorb an increasing proportion of the national working population in modern types of non-agricultural activity. The State of Food and Agriculture 1973 conducted a survey of employment in agriculture covering the period from 1950 to 1970, with projections for 1980, 1990 and 2000. The survey revealed that, in the developed countries as a group, the share of agriculture in the total economically active population declined from 38 percent in 1950 to 21 percent in 1970 and was projected to drop to 5 or 6 percent by 2000 (a fairly accurate projection). The corresponding ratios for the developing countries as a group were 79, 66 and 43 percent, respectively (currently it is around 55 percent and so the flow of labour out of agriculture has been slower than expected). An earlier contribution of The State of Food and Agriculture to the development debate was a special chapter in 1972, entitled Education and training for development. This provided a bird's-eye view of rural education in the developing regions and outlined the strategy for human resources planning, the process of priority setting in rural education and training and the identification of special areas of concern such as the training of trainers, extension workers, capacity building for the young, teaching aids and communication media. The deepening appreciation of these and other social issues concerning rural development resulted in the 1979 World Conference on Agrarian Reform and Rural Development (WCARRD), which was a landmark in the search for ways of alleviating rural poverty. WCARRD, which was sponsored by FAO, adopted a Declaration of Principles known as the Peasants' Charter, involving 17 major areas and a Programme of Act ion that included national programmes of act ion in developing countries and international policies for agrarian reform and rural development. The latter covered the monitoring of agrarian reform and rural development; the analysis and dissemination of knowledge; the provision of technical assistance; and support for the mobilization of resources. The United Nations Conference on the Human Environment Growing concern for the environment was aroused by the publication of The limits to growth by the Club of Rome in 1971. The publication raised alarm about the deterioration in the status of the world resources in relation to population growth and mounting economic waste. The collapse of the Peruvian anchoveta fisheries in the early 1970s was a reminder of the fragility of what had been perceived to be a virtually inexhaustible resource. The question of environmental deterioration and means of combating it was the subject of the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment, held in Stockholm from 5 to 16 June 1972. The Conference approved the Stockholm Declaration and a Plan of Act ion including 109 resolutions on the environmental aspects of all sectors of the economy, 51 of which related to natural resources management. The majority of the resolutions were specifically addressed to FAO and covered such diverse areas as rural development, environmental planning, soil management and fertility, pest control, recycling of agricultural waste, genetic resources, monitoring of forests and aquatic resources and the management of fisheries. The Stockholm Conference expedited the establishment of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in Nairobi in 1973. Yet its far-reaching recommendations were probably in advance of contemporary public thinking. It was to take another decade or more for the accumulation of evidence of profound environmental deterioration on a global scale - forest destruction, ozone depletion, increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, marine pollution, etc. - to raise public support for the initial remedial steps to be taken. Concern for the environment had been high on FAO's agenda since its establishment. In a special chapter in 1971, The State of Food and Agriculture reviewed the effects of water pollution on living aquatic resources and fisheries. It identified the major characteristics of water pollution and traced its biological and ecological effects on fisheries. The chapter drew attention to the regional differences in aquatic pollution and proposed criteria and systems for monitoring this phenomenon as well as proposing legal and institutional measures required to reduce water pollution as part of the larger effort in pursuit of sustainable development. As follow-up to the 1972 Stockholm Conference, The State of Food and Agriculture 1977 included a special chapter on the state of natural resources and the human environment. The assessment covered soil, water, grazing land and forage resources, forests, wildlife, fisheries and genetic resources. It provided an analysis of the impact of agricultural intensification on the environment and the legislative aspects of avoiding natural resource degradation and environmental pollution. It attributed the major causes of pollution in the developed countries to the high level of industrialization and reliance on energy-intensive agricultural systems. On the other hand, the major environmental problem in the developing countries was not pollution but the degradation and depletion of natural resources. The chapter proposed a better and more coherent method of da ta collection; multidisciplinary research in assessing the impact on the productivity of natural resources of the application of different land use planning; adaptation of local knowledge for raising the efficiency of natural resource use; and developing the appropriate institutional and legal systems in the management of natural resources. Population and food supply The pervading concern about the possible imbalance between the natural resource base and the demands placed on it from a rising rate of population growth underlay the United Nations World Population Conference, held in August 1974 in Bucharest. The Conference adopted the World Population Plan of Act ion, which paid special attention to the imp ortance of increasing food production and productivity so that food could be made available at reasonable prices for the developing countries. FAO's contribution to the Bucharest Conference was contained in a special chapter (Population, food supply and agricultural development) in The State of Food and Agriculture 1974. The chapter took stock of the trends in population growth and food supply for the period 1952-1972, noting possibilities for increasing food production. It stressed the dimension and causes of hunger and malnutrition and the factors affecting the long-term demand for food. Fisheries The third United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS III) took place in Geneva from 17 March to 9 May 1975 but ended without any definite agreement on the major issue of exploitation rights over the sea and seabed.Nevertheless, an increasing number of coastal states were extending their jurisdiction over fisheries beyond the 12 nautical mile limit, which had broadly prevailed for the previous 300 years. In 1979, the adoption of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) by the FAO Conference added a new dimension to FAO's work in fisheries. As a result of the new legal regime of the oceans, fishery resources of coastal states were brought under their direct national jurisdiction in the form of EEZs. Marine fisheries in the new era of national jurisdiction was covered in a special chapter in The State of Food and Agriculture 1980 . The chapter reviewed the opportunities and challenges to coastal fisheries arising from the international community's acceptance of the EEZ-based jurisdiction. It explained the consequences of the changes in the Law of the Sea on fish catch of the coastal states, the effects of open access, problems of adjustment for coastal states, repercussions on countries with large distant-water fleets, the effects of EEZs on international trade in fish and the management of coastal fisheries under this new system. Expansion in trade: the Tokyo Round of multilateral trade negotiations The 1970s witnessed a vast expansion in international trade, spurred by the rise in the price of petroleum and the radical redistribution of national wealth that this entailed. Agricultural trade also increased, although the benefits were not shared by all countries. The less developed exporters of mainly tropical agricultural commodities suffered from severe declines in their income terms of trade as price inflation of their industrial imp orts and higher energy bills more than offset increases in the value of their mainly agricultural exports. The Tokyo Round of multilateral trade negotiations (MTNs) under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) was launched in 1973. Attempts to extend interventions in domestic agricultural markets into international trade through a series of international commodity agreements covering grains, oilseeds, dairy products and meat failed to materialize, and the Round, which concluded with on ly a modest agreement on agriculture, marked a turning point in the extent of government involvement in international agricultural markets - a trend that was to continue in the turbulent decade that followed.
《世界粮食与农业--过去50年的教训》 二十世纪六十年代 摘译自（FAO）出版的《THE STATE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 2000》一书 ·技术进步 ·对贫困和饥饿的关注——中国的饥荒 ·农业的重新发现 ·贸易-MTNs和UNCTAD肯尼迪回合 ·发展援助——不成功的尝试 技术进步 在过去的五十年中，二十世纪六十年代的特征可能是农业技术的迅速进步，包括国际玉米小麦改良中心（CIMMYT）在内的第一批国际农业研究中心（IARCs）都是在二十世纪四十年代末和五十年代期间建立起来的。人们怀着极大的愿望，希望在减少饥饿的同时，农业生产力的快速发展能减轻农村贫困，支持社会经济发展。 1960至1970年十年间，《粮食与农业状况》有两期（1963，1968）用专门的章节讨论了提高农业生产力和改善农业根本要素的问题。亚洲是发展援助的重点，因此大家都极为关注灌溉条件，而且将大量资源用于改善灌溉条件是极正常的，当然增加化肥施用量和使用良种也是当时称作“绿色革命”的关键因素，在这十年间发展中国家化肥施用量的增长率创历史记录。在“消除饥饿”运动的支持下（附2），成功的“肥料计划”就是在这个时期由FAO建立起来的。 附2 农业绿色革命 本刊这期回顾中多次提到“绿色革命”。绿色革命主要是指二十世纪60年代末70年代初主要粮食作物水稻、小麦、玉米在产量上的巨大飞跃，亚洲表现最为明显。产量的提高使人口众多、粮食不足的国家仅在几年内变成了粮食自给自足的国家。绿色革命扭转了亚洲大国的粮食危机，是中国和东南亚及南亚国家的经济取得惊人成就的基础。 绿色革命的特征是高产品种的快速传播。科研机构培育的良种结合灌溉或水份管理和改善水份利用方式，以及施用化肥和农药，还配合相关的管理措施取得了粮食的高产。良好的社会经济环境以及体制环境，使活跃的市场起了重要的作用，从而促进了良种在成千上万人中广泛传播。 在20年内发展中国家有近一半的小麦和水稻采用了新品种。亚洲国家的小麦地里，几乎90%都是种植的现代品种，高产稻的种植面积由12%提高到67%。 这些发展使农业生产和粮食产量有了很大的提高。1963——1983年间粮食产量增长最快。在此期间，发展中国家的水稻、小麦、玉米总产量分别增长了3.19%、5.1%、3.8%。随后10年（1983——1993）间三种粮食年生产量分别减少了1.8%、2.5%、3.4%。 绿色革命本身并不是没有问题，为了提高产量而大量施用化学除草剂和农药引起了人们对环境问题和人类健康的担忧。另外，随着灌溉面积的扩大，需要技术的水份管理方法并非人人都能采用，性别角色的转变问题和新的科技挑战都尚待解决。缺乏合适的技术仍然是条件不好的地区许多农民的限制因素。 消费者可能是绿色革命的最大受益者。在过去30年中，通过应用提高产量、降低成本的技术和推广良种、肥料、除草剂，使亚洲的粮食价格稳定下降。相对而言，粮食价格低对穷人更有利，因为他们把大部分收入用于购买粮食。绿色革命技术也使农村收入增加。 科学、技术、教育、推广的相互联系也引起人们特别的关注。主要在具有温带气候条件的发达国家进行基本农业技术研究及其对本地耕作措施的适应性研究和应用。关键的任务是要使大量的农业科技知识适用于大多数发展中国家的干旱气候条件和热带气候条件，说服当地的农民接受这些新的知识。 二十世纪六十年代后期，部分亚洲国家培育的良种及其良好的农艺性状表现为农业带来了机遇，在《粮食与农业状况》1968、1969年两期中皆讨论了这个话题。这种品种改良在多大程度上反应了通过广泛的使用禾谷类优良品种和与此相关的其它投入的有意识的努力呢？在报告中没有给出明确的答案，但指出类似于“绿色革命”的某些因素确实发挥了作用。亚洲国家采用禾谷类优良品种的速度比其它洲要快，其粮食作物产量得到极大提高，尽管很多地方存在不利的气候条件，1968年有些国家粮食产量仍然翻了一番。由此说明，在受到粮食短缺威胁的紧急时刻，政府在粮食增产过程中起到了关键的作用。粮食状况极不稳定的远东国家采用优良新品种的速度最快，粮食进口国的进步大于粮食出口国。二十世纪六十年代，政府还意识到提高农业生产力不仅仅是引进和开发新的农业技术的问题。1960年的《粮食与农业状况》中专门阐述了土地资产和土地改革问题是农业发展的主要问题，但是也是最难解决的问题。在第二次世界大战末期农业改革运动赢得了支持。在《粮食与农业状况》中写道：“历史上没有哪个时期进行过如此广泛的艰难的尝试，影响如此众多的人，建立了更适应时代变迁需要的土地所有制”。但是这些成就还不够，大多数发展中国家的土地所有制结构仍然极端不平等，当开始实施土地改革的时候，土改方案有的取得了成功，有的却没有成功。报告强调了要想土改措施取得预想的结果，提供充足的贷款和进行市场营销及提供技术服务的重要性。 有关饥饿和营养不良的问题 尽管对提高农业生产力的可能性日益乐观，但二十世纪六十年代初期创立了一系列重要机构这一事实表明，人们日益关注饥饿和营养不良的问题及贫困国家的发展前景问题。首先是1961年“世界粮食计划署”（WFP）的成立，在初期试验的基础上将粮食问题作为联合国（UN）和粮食与农业组织（FAO）的共同责任。WFP的任务是探索利用发达国家的剩余粮食来援助不发达国家的经济发展，与饥饿和营养不良作斗争。虽然涉及双方计划的规模还小，但具有潜在的重要意义。 1963年在美国华盛顿召开的“世界粮食大会”引起了全世界对饥饿和营养不良问题的关注。这次大会要求各国政府和国际组织以及其它组织迎接挑战，将消除饥饿作为这一代的首要任务。同时，大会还强调，要长久地解决饥饿问题，必须依靠发展中国家本身粮食生产的快速增长。大会还通过了几项克服农业发展所面临的技术、教育、经济限制因子的推荐方案。在1974年“世界粮食大会”和1996年“世界粮食峰会”等主要大会上皆经常提到这些方案，而且至今仍然十分中肯，它强调解决饥饿问题的出路不在于寻求新的妙方，更多的在于去实施，重要的是政府的努力。 二十世纪六十年代初，有关中国自1958年以来粮食短缺达到极限程度的消息引起了全世界对饥饿普遍性的广泛关注。《粮食与农业状况》报道，中国大部分地区的收成受到灾难性的影响，一半以上的土地受到干旱、大风、洪涝、虫灾或其它破坏性灾害的影响，而在几十年后才知道死亡人数。可能估计的死亡人数有些出入，但有些人认为可能有上千万人死于饥饿。在1993年的报告中，Sen估计，1958—1961年间有大约2300万至3000万人死于这场灾难，这场灾难标志着农业计划“大跃进”的失败。 农业与发展 对饥饿、贫困、发展问题的兴趣的高涨与分配问题和农业在经济中的作用问题的激烈讨论不谋而合。1970年《粮食与农业状况》中回忆道，二十世纪60年代末期经济长期持续增长后，收入的分配问题受到极大关注，考虑公平成为制定经济发展政策不可分割的一部分。早期的发展理论趋向于认为虽然穷人的收入在增长，但经济快速增长会导致先进行业和落后行业间更大的收入不平等，到二十世纪六十年代末期有相当数量的相反的观点得到了重视。 “基本需要”法赢得了支持，这种方法强调脱贫是经济发展的中心问题。对分配的强调会有利于农业，因为在广大的农村有大量的穷人，相对于工业而言农业常常是落后产业。 这场讨论还涉及到农业和发展的其它方面。一方面，新的经济学家“重新发现”了农业。他们宣称更自由的市场、更自由的贸易和农业经济增长有利于经济全面增长，同时他们宣称出口悲观主义思想基本上是没有根据的，可以采用激励措施促进农业生产和农产品出口。这种观点受到包括来自于联合国拉美经济委员会（ECLA）的社会学家在内的“结构学家”的反对。他们是“通过工业化以进口粮食来代替国内农业”的强烈支持者，结构学家长期以来驳斥比较优势学理论。他们认为，和工业化国家出口的具有巨大附加值的商品相比较，发展中国家出口的初级农产品没有比较优势。农业出口贸易长期衰退的观点随后进一步发展，自此成了相当多的文献报道的内容。 尽管《粮食与农业状况》没有直接参与辩论，但该刊在这一时期和随后的立场仍然站在以农业作为发展的源泉这一方，公平是发展的先决条件，农民是容易起反应的经济力量，他们需要政府的支持来提高生产力。该刊重视发展中国家的农业生产、生产力和国际竞争的重要性，清楚地表明本刊始终坚信农业发展的道路。1962年该刊还特别强调了正在进行的很多农业发展计划应该紧密地与总的经济发展相结合。这些计划虽然在有些情况下有些好高骛远，但其努力被看作是意识到农业的重要性及农业对全面发展的潜在贡献的标志。 附3 1955年和1995年间的农业产出模式 二十世纪后半叶，农业产出显著提高。 整个农业生产中的主要变化有 ： ·尽管大多数作物的面积增长是有限的，但每种粮食作物的产值都有所增加。 ·禾谷类粮食作物的生产面积增长特别快，几乎增长了三倍。 ·肉类的产值提高了三倍，奶产量提高一倍，这有赖于饲用粮食作物的增加。 粮食产量最高的10个国家的变化： ·中国的农业生产飞速发展，按世界生产的比例，中国的产量增加了一倍，而产值上升了三倍以上。中国超过美国成为世界的第一大农业生产国。 ·中国的农业产出也增长了一倍，远远高于其它农业生产大国。 ·印度仍为世界第三大农业生产国，其农业产出增长两倍。其同期的农业增长低于中国。 ·从人均产出来看，印度的农业生产只扩大了35%，低于中国。 ·巴西是世界的第四大农业生产国。 ·尽管阿根廷的人均产出有所下降，但其人均农业产出仍是全世界最高的；法国也提高了其农业人均产值。 贸易争端 二十世纪六十年代期间，尤其是在六十年代后五年中，贸易争端是《粮食与农业状况》关注的主要问题。这个时期有两个主要特征：1967年贸易磋商肯尼迪回合的闭幕，1964年联合国贸易与发展大会（UNCTAD）的建立。该大会旨在通过制定和实施有效的面向发展的贸易新政策，成为加速各国发展的一个机构，从而提高了发展中国家的出口收入。 “肯尼迪回合”降低了参与这个协定的工业化国家的关税，估计平均为35%。虽然从发展中国家向发达国家的出口对此协定积极响应，但受影响最大的是工业化国家之间进行贸易的产品。农业贸易没有遵照这个协议，但磋商的各方达成了协议——每年将提供450万吨粮食援助。 《粮食与农业状况》注意到“世界粮食大会”和UNCTAD的建立时间相近，表明这两个组织所处理的问题有密切联系。消除饥饿只有依靠贫穷国家的经济发展，这些国家除了得到外援以外，其发展的关键在于它们通过出口换取外汇的能力。 1968年在印度新德里召开的第二次UNCTAD会议也突出讨论了这方面的问题，其议事日程包括了直至今天发展中国家仍然感兴趣的焦点问题，即初级商品进入工业化国家的市场的问题，发展援助的数量、期限和条件，发展中国家间扩大贸易，进行经济合作和整合的问题，世界粮食问题，而针对粮食问题，最终得出的结论反映了1963年“世界粮食大会”所确定的原则。 各国极大地关注国际商品协定的问题。其中一个明显的结果是恢复了1961年终止运行的“国际糖类协定”，经过UNCTAD主持的磋商后，1969年1月1日起该协定执行了五年。包括其它粮食商品和非粮食商品协定的磋商也取得一定程度的成功。尽管联合国粮农组织提倡物物交易方式是更实用的方法，但同时也讨论了引入补偿金方案和更多的世界商品协定的综合形式的可能性。 发展援助 二十世纪五十年代后期和六十年代初期，各个国家都纷纷赢得政治的独立，尤其是在非洲。但有时这种受欢迎的发展却导致政治动荡和国内冲突，同时也为拓展发展援助渠道开辟了道路，特别是从多边渠道获得援助。1969年的《农业与粮食状况》报道了“皮尔森报告”，这是由世界银行发起的独立委员会出版的书，其主席是勒斯特·B·皮尔森。报告回顾了在援助国和接受国共同努力促进发展的20年中所取得的成就；同时得出结论，当援助所驱动的经济发展已开始发挥作用时减少援助。这个报告号召增大政府援助，至1975年时达到工业国家国民生产总值（GNP）的0.7%，同时敦促其中20%通过多边机构募集，在1968年时政府援助是0.4%，多边机构募集的占10%。最终只有几个国家达到了这个目标。 同一期《粮食与农业状况》还高度地强调由国际复兴与发展银行（IBRD）资助农业的政策。农业贷款水平提高四倍以上反应了这项政策的转向是正确的。这次发展的结果是1964年初FAO和IBRD间新的合作署的建立，为IBRD出资制定了很多农业和农村发展计划。 附4 农业贸易——变化的趋势和模式 在过去的几十年中，由于世界农业贸易的结构、方向和组成产生了深刻的变化，在此过程中出现了一些矛盾。农业出口失去了其在整个贸易中的相对重要性，同时在很多国家的经济中仍然是主要的成分。然而，那些对农业贸易依赖性较少的经济在农业市场中获得了极大的赢利，而那些紧紧依靠农业的经济不仅失去了市场份额，而且由于日益依赖农产品出口和粮食安全的进口而面临农业贸易平衡状况的恶化。 另外，国际农产品价格还出现了总体下降的趋势。在整个农业贸易中，具有附加值的产品和初级农产品相比，其重要性越来越明显。 农业在世界贸易中的重要性日益下降 在过去十几年中，随着世界经济的相互依存和一体化进程的加快，农业贸易的扩张速度比农业生产快得多。尽管农产品贸易和农业生产相比较具有较强的动力，但和其它行业尤其是制造业相比，其贸易相对滞后。其中一个重要的原因是，和制造业价格相比农产品价格相对下降。在全球范围内，农业出口不到整个商品出口的10%，而在二十世纪60年代农业出口要占25%。农业贸易在对外贸易中的重要性的下降趋势对所有地区都是普遍现象，发展中国家在60年代至70年代初表现尤为明显。 在拉美国家和加勒比地区及亚撒哈拉非洲地区，农业出口仍然占整个支出的五分之一。有很多国家在经济上对农业的依赖性仍然很强。48个亚撒哈拉非洲国家中有12个国家的外汇收入中近一半靠农业出口。拉美国家和加勒比地区的37个国家中有10个也是这样。这些国家包括拉美国家中的伯利兹、乌拉圭及非洲的布隆迪、埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚、乌拉韦、乌干达、苏丹等国家。 缔约发展中国家在农业市场上的份额 世界贸易总额和农业贸易额的地区分布发生了巨大的变化。60年代初至近年来，发展中国家的商品出口总额的市场份额有所增加（从20%增至25%），但其农业出口额从40%降至27%。 除亚洲和太平洋地区以外，所有发展中国家都逐渐地失去了其出口在世界市场上的份额。亚太地区自70年代中期起其农业出口份额增加，也是除农业出口外多样化最成功的地区。而与此形成鲜明对比的是亚撒哈拉非洲国家，自70年代以来，在国际农业市场上逐渐失去其重要性。自80年代中期，拉美国家和加勒比地区的市场损失极为严重，农业出口量增长缓慢，出口价格大幅下降。 农产品实际价格下跌 50年代和60年代期间，国际粮食产品和非粮食产品价格保持相对稳定，只比制造业产品价格略低。70年代，价格出现了大幅波动，农产品和制造业产品价格出现巨大的差距，制造业产品价格上升的趋势比农产品快得多。结果，农业出口从实质上来说出现明显的下降。发展中国家农产品实际价格的下跌比发达国家更明显，反映了其出口商品上的差异，发达国家出口的温带地区的产品比其它国家出口的热带地区的产品价格相对稳定。 在此期间，出口量皆呈现恒定的上升趋势。然而，由于价格上涨的差异，目前出口农产品的价值从总体而言，发达国家的上升得比发展中国家的快。 初级产品出口向加工产品出口的转变 具有重大意义的是发展中国家的出口从不加工的初级商品向具附加值的产品的转变。不同发展中国家在这方面皆有成功的例子。亚太地区和拉美国家及加勒比海地区的农业出口产品中加工产品的比例从60年代早期的10%上升至近年来的三分之一。这些地区中工业化程度高的国家其加工产品的份额增加更多。因此，巴西和阿根廷的出口产品中加工产品已占50%，马来西亚已占到70%。 另一方面，过去30年间，亚撒哈拉非洲的农产品出口中，加工制品的份额稳定在15%左右，在这种停滞局面的背后，有些国家表现出暂时的极大的变化。但对该地区的大多数国家而言，总体情形是主要依赖有限的初级产品出口。在近东和北非地区，总体而言，具有附加值的产品份额高，反映了在相对较小的农业出口基地上几种加工产品的比例较大。大多数是贝类加工产品和其它海产品及水果和蔬菜罐头和腌制品。 THE 1960s Technological progress Concern about the poor and hungry - and famine in China Rediscovering agriculture Trade - the Kennedy Round of MTNs and UNCTAD Development assistance - the unsuccessful attempt to set targets Technological progress Of all of the past five decades, the 1960s could possibly be characterized best by the rapid advance of agricultural technology, although the first initiatives - including the establishment of the first international agricultural research centres (IARCs) such as the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) - had been taken in the late 1940s and the 1950s. There were high hopes that rapid gains in agricultural productivity would alleviate rural poverty and underpin economic and social development while reducing the incidence of hunger. Box 12 THE GREEN REVOLUTION IN AGRICULTURE The green revolution is referred to several times in this review. It refers to a spectacular improvement that took place in the yields of major food crops (rice, wheat, maize), mainly during the late 1960s and early 1970s, and most impressively in Asia. The improved yields helped turn heavily populated food-deficit countries into self-sufficient producers in the space of just a few years. It clearly averted a major food crisis in Asia, and served as the foundation for startling economic growth in China and Southeast and South Asia. The green revolution was characterized by the fast dissemination of high-yielding varieties, i.e. improved seeds resulting from science-based research, as part of a technological package that included irrigation or controlled water supply and improved moisture utilization, fertilizers and pesticides and associated management skills. Its development and dissemination among millions of farmers were possible thanks to enabling socio-economic and institutional environments where active market opportunities also played an important role. Within 20 years, almost half the wheat and rice land in developing countries was being sown with the new varieties. In Asia, almost 90 percent of wheat fields were planted with modern varieties, and plantings of high-yielding rice had increased from 12 to 67 percent. These developments enabled major increases in farm production and yields. The most rapid increases in output occurred during the 1963-1983 period of the green revolution. In developing countries, total production of paddy rice, wheat and maize rose by 3.1, 5.1 and 3.8 percent annually. During the next decade (1983-1993) annual production increases were reduced to 1.8, 2.5 and 3.4 percent, respectively. The green revolution technologies were not without their problems: the need for a significant use of agrochemical-based pest and weed control in some crops raised environmental concerns as well as concern about human health; as irrigation areas expanded, water management required skills that were not always available; gender roles were shifted; and there were new scientific challenges to be tackled. Furthermore, lack of access to appropriate technologies remains a constraint for many farmers in areas with unfavourable conditions. Consumers may be the greatest beneficiaries of the green revolution. Real food prices in Asia, indeed throughout the world, have steadily declined over the past 30 years through the application of yield-increasing, cost-reducing technologies built around improved seed-fertilizer-weed control components. Lower real food prices benefit the poor relatively more than the rich, since the poor spend a larger proportion of their available income on food. The green revolution technologies have also led to increased rural incomes. Twice during the decade (in 1963 and 1968) special chapters of The State of Food and Agriculture discussed the issue of raising agricultural productivity and its underlying factors. With Asia the focus of development assistance efforts, it was logical that much attention and a large amount of development resources were directed at irrigation development, although the increased use of fertilizer (consumption by developing countries grew at record rates during this decade) and improved seeds were also key contributing factors to what was to become known as the green revolution. FAO's own successful Fertilizer Programme, established under the aegis of the Freedom from Hunger Campaign, stems from this period. The interlinked issues of science, technology, education and extension also received particular attention. It was noted that basic agricultural research, and still more its adaptation to local farm practice, was carried out predominantly in the developed countries with temperate climates. The crucial task ahead was to adapt the growing body of knowledge to the arid or tropical climates of most developing countries and to persuade farmers there to accept and apply this new knowledge. The opportunities being opened up by new improved varieties and the good agricultural performances of a number of Asian countries in the latter part of the 1960s were the object of discussions in the 1968 and 1969 issues of this publication. To what extent were such improved performances a reflection of the conscious efforts to accelerate output, in particular through the more widespread use of improved cereal varieties and other inputs associated with them? While the reports offered no definite answer, they did point to a number of elements suggesting that something like a green revolution was in fact under way. The rate of adoption of the new cereal varieties had been much faster in Asian countries, where cereal crop yields had shown the greatest improvement. Improvements had been dramatic - the rate of growth in output in 1968 had doubled in those countries in relation to past trends - despite unfavourable weather conditions in many cases. It was suggested that government commitment, triggered by the urgency of the threat of food shortages, may have been crucial in this process. It was probably no coincidence that the fastest rate of adoption had taken place in the Far East, where the food situation had been particularly precarious, and that progress had been greater in food-importing countries than in exporting countries. It had been well perceived by the early 1960s that raising agricultural productivity was not simply a matter of developing and introducing new agricultural technologies. In improving agricultural productivity, issues associated with land tenure and agrarian reform were the most difficult to address. Land tenure and agrarian reform issues, reviewed in particular in The State of Food and Agriculture 1960 , were seen as key aspects of agricultural development, but perhaps the most difficult ones to tackle. Moves towards agrarian reform had gained momentum since the end of the Second World War and, as the report stated, in no comparable period of history were there such widespread efforts, affecting so many people, to establish systems of land tenure better adapted to the changing needs. However, achievements had been limited, agrarian structures continued to be dominated by extreme inequalities in most developing countries and, when actually implemented, schemes of agrarian reform met with uneven success. The report stressed the importance of providing adequate credit, marketing and technical services if measures of agrarian reform were to achieve the results intended. World food conferences over the decades have emphasized that the solution to the problem of hunger lies less in seeking new remedies and more in implementing what is already known. Addressing hunger and malnutrition Despite growing optimism regarding the possibilities for raising agricultural productivity, a number of important institutional events in the first half of the 1960s indicated growing concern about the problems of hunger and malnutrition and the development prospects of poorer countries. The first was the creation in 1961 of the World Food Programme (WFP), initially introduced on an experimental basis as a joint responsibility of the UN and FAO. WFP was to explore methods of using the surplus of food production of the more developed countries to aid economic development in less developed countries, and to combat hunger and malnutrition. Though small in relation to some bilateral programmes, it is potentially of great significance ( The State of Food and Agriculture 1962 ). The World Food Congress, held in June 1963 in Washington, DC, drew world attention to the problems of hunger and malnutrition. It called on all governments and international and other organizations to take up the challenge of eliminating hunger as a primary task of that generation. It emphasized, however, that any sustained attack on the problem of hunger would have to come from a much more rapid growth of food production in the developing countries themselves. The Congress passed numerous recommendations to overcome the technical, educational and economic constraints facing agricultural development. These were often reiterated in such major meetings as the 1974 World Food Conference and the 1996 World Food Summit, and still remain fully relevant. They underline that the solution to the problem of hunger lies less in seeking new remedies and more in implementing, with the weight of political commitment, what is already widely known. As emphasis to the prevailing concern about the prevalence of hunger, the 1960s opened with news that food shortages that had been developing since 1958 in China were reaching dramatic proportions. The State of Food and Agriculture reported disastrous harvests in large areas of the country, with more than half of the farmland affected by drought, typhoons, floods, insect infestation or other damage. The extent of the catastrophe in terms of human losses was to be known, however, only decades later. Estimates of the death toll vary but some point to tens of millions. Writing in 1993, Sen 2 estimatedthat, during the period 1958-1961, between 23 million and 30 million people died as a consequence of this disaster, which marked the failure of the agricultural programme of the Great Leap Forward. Box 13 AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT PATTERNS BETWEEN 1955 AND 1995 Significant increases in agricultural output occurred across geographic regions and products during the second half of the twentieth century. Figure A shows the growth in value of agricultural production between roughly 1955 and 1995, for all major products, as well as changes in land area planted. Figure B shows the agricultural output of the top producing countries in 1955 and 1995, in value and in proportion to the world total, along with per caput production and crop yields. Major changes in total production · Output value increased in every product category, in spite of a limited area expansion for most crops. · There was a particularly strong expansion of cereal production, which almost tripled. · Meat production value tripled and milk production value doubled - fed by the huge increase in cereals grown for feed use. Major changes among the top ten producer countries · China's total agricultural production surged, doubling as a proportion of total world output and more than quadrupling in value. China overtook the United States as the world's largest producer. · China also doubled the per caput value of its agricultural output, which was far more than any other of the large producer countries. · India retained its position as the world's third largest producer by tripling its agricultural output, although this was less than the increase achieved by China in the same period. · In per caput terms, India only expanded its agricultural production by 35 percent, again less than China. · Brazil gained several positions to become the world's fourth largest agricultural producer. · Argentina maintained its position as the world's highest per caput producer, although per caput production actually declined, and France also substantially increased the value of its per caput output - inching past the United States. Agriculture and development The surge in interest in problems of hunger, poverty and development coincided with an intense debate over distributional issues and the economic role of agriculture. The State of Food and Agriculture 1970 recalled the late 1960s when, after a long period of sustained economic growth, issues regarding distribution of income gains received increasing emphasis, to the point of making equity considerations an integral part of economic development policy. While earlier development theory had tended to stress the likelihood that rapid economic growth would lead to greater income inequalities between leading and lagging sectors, although the incomes of the poor would still rise, by the late 1960s quite the opposite perspective gained respectability. A basic needs approach took hold, stressing the alleviation of poverty as the central concern of economic development. The emphasis on distribution tended to benefit agriculture, since it was in rural areas that the majority of the poor were found and agriculture was often the lagging sector relative to industry. The debate extended to other aspects of agriculture and development. On the one hand, there was a rediscovery of agriculture by neoclassic economists who claimed that freer markets, more liberal trade regimes and a growing agricultural economy were conducive to overall economic growth. They also claimed that export pessimism was largely unfounded and that agricultural production and exports did respond to incentives (and disincentives). This position was opposed by the structuralists, including social scientists from the UN Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLA). Strong supporters of import-substitution industrialization, structuralists had long contested the theory of comparative advantage, noting that it was not to the advantage of developing countries to specialize and to export primary and agricultural products when industrialized nations were exporting manufactured goods with greater value added. The thesis of a secular decline in the terms of trade of agricultural exports then evolved and has been the object of considerable literature since. Although The State of Food and Agriculture did not enter directly into the debate, its position during this period - and thereafter - remained on the side of agriculture as an active source of development; equity as a sine qua non condition to development; and farmers as responsive economic agents who, however, require government assistance to improve their productivity. The importance attached by the publication to agricultural production, productivity and the international competitiveness of developing countries implicitly suggested its faith in an agricultural path to development, if not agricultural specialization, for many of them. The 1962 issue, in particular, emphasized the fact that many ongoing plans for agricultural development were, as they should be, closely integrated with those for general economic development. Although overambitious in many cases, these planning efforts were seen as signs of awareness of the importance of agriculture and its potential contribution tooverall development. Trade issues Trade issues were prominent in The State of Food and Agriculture during the 1960s, especially in the latter part of the decade. Two main features marked this period: the conclusion of the Kennedy Round of trade negotiations in 1967 and the establishment of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in 1964 to serve as an agent of accelerated development for all countries by means of formulating and carrying into effect new development-oriented trade policies ..., 3 with the aim of raising the export earnings of the developing countries. The Kennedy Round resulted in reductions of industrialized participants' tariffs with an estimated average of 35 percent. Although exports from developing to developed countries responded positively to the concessions made in the Round, the products that were most affected were those traded among industrialized countries. Agricultural trade was absent from the negotiations, but there was an agreement among the negotiating parties to contribute food aid to the extent of 4.5 million tonnes of grain annually. The State of Food and Agriculture noted that the proximity of the World Food Congress and UNCTAD's establishment illustrated the close link between the problems with which they dealt. Freedom from hunger could come only from the economic development of the poorer countries. Even more than foreign aid, the key to development for these countries was their ability to earn foreign exchange from their exports. The second UNCTAD session of 1968 in New Delhi was remarkable for the scope of its agenda, which covered issues that remain at the centre of developing country interests to this day. These included access of primary commodities to markets in industrialized countries; volume, terms and conditions of development aid; trade expansion, economic cooperation and integration among developing countries; and the world food problem, on which conclusions largely echoed the principles promulgatedat the 1963 World Food Congress. Considerable attention was given to the question of international commodity agreements, then at the height of their popularity. One visible result was the revival of the International Sugar Agreement, which had been inoperative since 1961. After negotiation under the auspices of UNCTAD, it was enforced for a period of five years from 1 January 1969. Agreements covering other food and non-food commodities were also negotiated with varying degrees of success. There were also discussions on the possibility of introducing schemes of compensatory finance and more comprehensive forms of world commodity agreements, although FAO itself advocated the commodity-by-commodity approach as the more practical method. Development assistance The last years of the 1950s and the early 1960s also saw the gaining of political independence by several former colonial territories, particularly in Africa. While in some cases this otherwise welcome development led to political instability and civil strife, it also opened the way for a broadening of development assistance flows, particularly from multilateral sources. The State of Food and Agriculture 1969 reported on the Pearson report, published by an independent commission sponsored by the World Bank and chaired by Lester B. Pearson. The report reviewed the results of 20 years of development efforts by both donors and recipients and concluded that the aid effort was flagging at the very time that the drive for economic development was beginning to produce results. It called for a large increase in government aid, to 0.7 percent of the GNP of the industrial countries by 1975, and urged that 20 percent of the total be channelled through multilateral institutions, compared with the 0.4 percent and 10 percent, respectively, that had been committed in 1968. This objective was to prove unattainable by all but a few donor countries. Calls for increased official development assistance failed to produce the desired results. On a more positive note, the same issue of The State of Food and Agriculture also reported a much greater emphasis on agriculture in financing by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD). This policy shift was reflected by an expected fourfold increase in the level of loans to agriculture. One consequence of this development was the establishment in early 1964 of a new Cooperative Programme between FAO and IBRD to identify and help formulate many more agricultural and rural development projects for IBRD financing.
《世界粮食与农业--过去50年的教训》 二十世纪五十年代 关 键词：复苏，工业化，发展计划，粮食自足,过剩，重新评价非洲 摘译自（FAO）出版的《THE STATE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 2000》一书 发展中国家缺乏提高人民生活水平的资源和技术 不均衡的复苏和两极分化 二十世纪五十年代表现为政治和经济的两极分化现象逐渐加大。“冷战”和意识形态的对抗使国际合作更为困难，同时，贫穷国家和富裕国家的差距及社会阶层的贫富悬殊差距拉大。在西欧各国，“马歇尔计划”和重建活动使受战争影响的国家经济迅速复苏，而发展中国家的经济则受到农业市场不稳定、外汇极端短缺的影响，伴随着新的独裁政治制度的建立而出现极为严重的问题，这在亚洲表现尤为突出。在《粮食与农业状况》中也反复提到过贫富差距日益加大的问题，同时还强调了农业发展在改善一个国家或一个社会的经济状况中的重要性。如果发展中国家要显著地提高人民的生活水平，其粮食生产增长速度应比人口增长率高1-2%。而这种粮食产出的增长远远超出了很多发展中国家的资源承载力和技术水平。 工业化 由工业驱动经济增长是很多拉美国家发展战略的基础，成为二十世纪五十年代传统的发展范例。因此，“偏爱城区歧视农业”的现象也就有了市场。有通过半国营性质的销售部广泛地实行对农业的直接歧视，在农民出售农产品的价格和农产品的实际市场价格之间形成了价格差；也有通过货币过分升值以压低出口农产品的价格和进口代替品的价格，以及采取保护工业品和给予工业进口代替品以优惠从而在降低农产品价格的同时提高非农产品的价格，间接歧视农业。 对工业的偏爱是基于这样一种理论：一种经济要发展，它必须快速增长，要快速增长就只有实行工业化。在《粮食与农业状况》的早期报道中就有大量的工业生产发展的内容，在二十世纪五十年代的各期中对这一问题还单独列为一个章节。工业化因其对收入增长的积极影响而被视为“农产品有效购买力的基本因素”。当时还认为，由于工业化涉及到城镇居民的搬迁，因此有必要使粮价保持在较低的水平以平息城市中的社会问题。对肥料和农用机械等农业投入实行补贴以及给与农业信贷优惠皆在补偿农业，但事实上这些措施使大的商业农场得到的好处比从事小规模农业生产的农民得到的好处多。对城市消费者有利的“低价粮食”政策极大地打击了农业生产的积极性。而这种政策在很多国家执行了很多年，直到二十世纪八十年代才因结构调整而废止。 发展计划 由于二十世纪三十年代早期的大萧条和随后需求的下滑，导致了要求国家在经济和市场管理方面进行更大的干预的呼声日益强烈，因此当时的发展战略要求国家在投入和产出的营销及生产和资源分配的计划方面发挥更大的作用。《粮食与农业状况》广泛地报道了农业规划和计划的发展，尤其突出报道了某些亚洲国家在实现这种发展战略方面所起的先锋作用方面的经验。当时大家感觉到只有对农业和经济实施公共计划和由国家出资才能打破低收入、低消费、生产停滞的怪圈。典型的计划涉及生产目标的确定和投资的规划，甚至还涉及到土地改良、灌溉系统的修建和投入等详细的方案。 印度被示为一个范例，该国在自助的基础上对其各种经济的综合发展进行了规划，但并没有对经济进行过多的严格控制，而是从战略的角度进行国家控制以便保证经济发展模式与印度第一个五年计划（1950/51-1955/56）的目标一致。该五年计划中确定了粮食生产和纤维产品的生产由集体出资，旨在使消费水平恢复到二战前的水平，将储蓄用于投资，从而促进经济进一步的发展。 而另一个实行国家计划与干预的极端例子则是中国。中国的第一个五年计划（1953-1957）被认为是成功的，据报道，政府在农业和工业计划方面投资以后使GDP增长了12%。1958年又引入了一套新的发展战略，即“大跃进”，以便巩固和重组乡村农业和工业，这个新的战略强调在农村采用新技术，还强调在发展农业的同时发展更多的农村轻工业，同时还涉及消除农村私有财产，强制合并农场，收归集体所有。1959的《粮食与农业发展状况》报道，截止1958年底，中国已有74万多个农业合作社转化为26000个人民公社，每一个人民公社包括2000个家庭，他们的工作划分为农业生产和轻工业生产两部分。 但是，尽管1957-1958年间中国的生产显著增长，但随后都出现了大的问题。人民公社的生产汇报数据往往有水分，但这些数据又用作政府要求进一步扩大生产量的基础。因此，政府给农民施加了更大的压力，从而从农村拿走更大份额的产出，使农村剩余的农产品更少。加上农村工业没有能给农业提供机械、工具、肥料和其它农用物资，以及劳动力普遍短缺和未经实践检验的农业种植方法的引进，加剧了农村问题。这些人为因素再加上当时恶劣的气候条件使农业生产出现了大幅度下降，从而导致粮食短缺。 1960年出版的《粮食与农业状况》提到人民公社出现的问题，同时还提出了解决的措施：“1959年8月，发现有必要对人民公社进行重组，因为向公社食堂供应的粮食已低于上年的水平，收入的过分集中意味着效率更高的生产队正在支撑着人民公社。小块的土地还给各个家庭用于栽种蔬菜，同时鼓励各个家庭养殖家畜以改善农村的粮食供应状况。”该报告中还暗示要放松人民公社和城镇公社组织制度中实行的其它规定。 自给自足 很多发展计划的共同特征是强调粮食的部分或者是完全自给，这常常是从战略角度考虑的。战争时期和战后的粮食短缺给很多国家留下了深刻的印象，确保粮食供应的重要性使得它们不相信过分地依赖进口。外汇支付困难又更进一步强化了这种担忧，各国不愿意将紧缺的外汇花在农产品进口上，外汇主要用于进口国家发展所需的主要设备。粮食自给自足成了大多数国家发展计划的标准特征，即使有时这种标准明显不切实际时也如此，除非成本极高或世界市场粮食供应充足的情况下才有例外。强调增加粮食生产和自给自足的观点，明显不同于由工业驱动的发展战略的反农业偏见，很多国家形成了模糊的政策环境。 隐藏在二十世纪五十年代强调自给自足背后的重要因素是这些年这些国家出现了支付危机，这段时期对各种商品的需求增长，尤其是在战争期间停止进口的地区和经济恢复很快的地区。由于北美是工农业商品的主要供应地，进口国都得支付美元，因此这些国家的其外汇很快就极为紧缺。很多粮食不能自足的国家，即使是有特许支付条件的国家和得到美国其他形式援助的国家都强迫缩减其全面进口和粮食进口。拉美国家还不得不强制执行严格的进口限制。 农业过剩的问题 《粮食与农业状况》密切地追踪着有些国家农业日益过剩的问题，在1954年这一期中作了广泛的报道，还特别提到了1953年的联合国粮农组织大会。在这次大会上讨论了粮食过剩所涉及的复杂问题，中心议题是如何在不扰乱国际农产品市场的情况下处理粮食过剩，如何在不增加粮食过剩的情况下保证与世界需求增长同步地扩大粮食生产。这次会议确定，在联合国粮食组织商品问题委员会下设立常务分会，以便就这个问题为政府间协商提供定期的论坛。利用过剩粮食缓解粮食紧张，促进发展。处理剩余粮食的概念的提出赢得了广泛的赞同，从而引出将粮食援助作为援助发展的一种形式。在这一期中还讨论了有些出口国家为了减少价格波动而采用的价格补偿方案，强调了通过国际商品协议来稳定粮食生产和粮食价格的意义，让出口国和进口国双方皆满意。 重新评价非洲 二十世纪五十年代末期起，本刊对非洲作了大量报道，1958年的《粮食与农业状况》报道了FAO专门针对南部非洲撒哈拉地区的粮食与农业发展研究，描绘了战争结束以来的农业生产状况。一般来说，马铃薯生产与人口增长同步，渔业生产比战前增长三倍，尽管有时出现严重的粮食短缺，尤其是在粮食收获前一段时间，但膳食水平大致与需求保持一致。非洲仍被看作是一个“空”的大陆，其人口只占世界的5%，每平方公里只有2个人，其面积与人口密度比例很高，由于是流动性耕种，因此难以保持土壤肥力，森林遭到极度破坏，从而对其水土资源带来严重的后果。 森林 1958年的《粮食与农业状况》第四章的题目是“林业增长及其对世界森林的影响” 。本章综述了从林业发展初期到战后的巨大增长期间林业的发展历程。例如，战后10年间纸浆生产量翻了一番，1956年达到5600万吨，几次扩产对森林资源造成巨大的压力，但却低估了其影响。在这项研究中强调，世界森林能够满足需求，很多情况下，林业是森林最好的朋友。文中讲到：“在世界很多地方，森林规模化产业开发人员为森林养护和森林保护树立了光辉的榜样。”而在随后的几十年中，相反的观点又占了上风。 THE 1950s .Recovery, Industrialization, Development planning .Food self-sufficiency, Surpluses .Reassessing Africa Uneven recovery and bipolarism Growing political and economic bipolarism characterized the 1950s. The cold war and ideological confrontation rendered international cooperation more problematic. At the same time, the gap between rich and poor countries and societies widened. The Marshall Plan and reconstruction activity contributed to a rapid economic recovery in war-affected countries in Western Europe while, by contrast, many economies in the developing world suffered from instability in agricultural markets, acute shortages of foreign exchange and, particularly in Asia, severe problems linked to the process of establishing newly independent political systems. During this period, the growing gap between rich and poor was mentioned repeatedly in The State of Food and Agriculture, which also emphasized the importance of agricultural development in improving the economic situation of countries and societies . For developing countriesto raise their living standards significantly, it was estimated that their food production would have to rise to between 1 and 2 percent above population growth. Such an increase in output, however, was felt to be beyond the resources and technological capacity of many developing countries. Developing countries lacked the resources and technology with which to raise their living standards. Industrialization Industry-driven growth, already the cornerstone of many Latin American countries' development strategies, became the orthodox development paradigm during the 1950s. Thus, the phenomenon of urban bias-agricultural discrimination gained ground. There was direct discrimination against agriculture through policies, widely implemented by parastatal marketing boards, which drove a wedge between prices received by farmers and border prices of tradable commodities; and indirect discrimination arising from currency overvaluation that tended to depress prices of exportables and import substitutes, together with policies that protected industry and favoured industrial import substitution, thereby raising the prices of non-agricultural goods while reducing farmgate prices. The industrial bias was based on the thesis that for an economy to develop, it had to grow rapidly, and to do so it had to industrialize. This view was reflected in the ample coverage of developments in industrial production found in early years of this publication, which introduced a regular section on this issue in the 1950s. Other than the fundamental ingredient of development, because of its positive effects on income growth, industrialization was also seen as the basic factor behind effective purchasing power for farm production ( The State of Food and Agriculture 1952 ). It was also recognized that, since industrialization involved urban migration, it would be necessary to keep food prices low in order to mitigate social hardship in the cities. Subsidies on agricultural inputs, such as fertilizers and machinery, and cheap credit were intended to compensate agriculture. However, these measures tended to benefit the larger commercial farms rather than small-scale peasant farming. Cheap food policies in favour of urban consumers heavily penalized the farm sector. Such policies endured in many countries until the 1980s when they were swept away in the process of structural adjustment. Development planning Partially as a result of the Great Depression of the early 1930s and the ensuing collapse of effective demand, which in turn led to calls for greater state intervention in the economy and in managing markets, development strategies involved a strong state role in the marketing of inputs and outputs and in the planning of production and the allocation of resources. The State of Food and Agriculture reported extensively on developments in programming and planning in agriculture, highlighting in particular the pioneering experiences of some Asian countries. It was felt that the vicious circle of low income, low consumption and stagnant production could only be broken by public sector planning and financing of agricultural and economic development. Planning typically involved the establishment of production targets, the programming of investment and even detailed schemes for land reclamation, irrigation and the provision of inputs. India was singled out as a particular case for the degree to which it planned an integrated development of its mixed economy on the basis of self-help, yet without undue regimentation. State control was applied at strategic points in order to ensure that the pattern of development was in line with the objectives of India's first Five-Year Plan (1950/51-1955/56). The Plan envisaged important public financing of food and fibre production, with the objective of restoring pre-war levels of consumption and diverting any savings into investment for further economic development. Another, more radical, example of state planning and intervention was that of China. Its first Five-Year Plan (1953-1957) was considered a success. Government investment in agriculture and industrial planning had reportedly increased GDP by 12 percent in real terms. In 1958, a new strategy was introduced, known as the Great Leap Forward, in order to consolidate and reorganize rural agriculture and industry. The new strategy emphasized the adoption of new technologies in the countryside and the concomitant development of more rural-based light industry. It also involved the elimination of private rural property and the forced consolidation and collectivization of farms. The 1959 issue of this publication reported that, already by the end of 1958, more than 740 000 agricultural cooperatives in China had been transformed into 26 000 communes. Each contained some 2 000 families whose workload was divided between agricultural production and light industry. However, although China's production increased significantly between 1957 and 1958, major problems emerged soon after. Production reports by the People's Communes were often overestimated, yet they served as a basis for the government's requests for increasing production quotas. Thus, government pressure on the peasantry to extract greater levels of output left rural communities with ever less of their production for their own consumption. The problem was compounded by the failure of rural industries to provide machinery, tools, fertilizer and other materials for agriculture as well as by widespread shortages of labour and the introduction of untested farming methods. These factors, coinciding with poor weather, contributed to a drastic reduction in agricultural production and led to food shortages. The State of Food and Agriculture 1960 made some reference to the problems occurring in the communes and reported on measures used to counter them: A reorganization of the communes was found necessary in August 1959, as food supplies for the commune kitchens had fallen below the previous year's level, and as overcentralization with the pooling of all income had meant that the more efficient `brigades' were supporting the rest. Small plots were handed back to families for the cultivation of vegetables and the raising of poultry to improve rural food supplies. The report also alluded to the easing of other regulations that were enforced within the commune system and to the organization of urban communes. Self-sufficiency One common feature of many development plans was the emphasis on partial or total self-sufficiency in food, often motivated by strategic considerations. Wartime and postwar shortages had impressed on many countries the importance of assured food supplies and had made them mistrustful of too great a dependence on imports. These concerns were powerfully reinforced by payment difficulties and the reluctance to spend scarce foreign exchange on imports of agricultural products rather than on capital equipment needed for development. Food self-sufficiency (or reasonable levels of it) became a standard feature of most national development plans, even in cases where such an objective was clearly out of reach, except at extremely high costs and in situations of ample food supplies in world markets. The emphasis on increased food production and self-sufficiency, clearly at odds with the anti-agricultural bias of industry-driven development strategies, created ambiguous policy settings in many countries. One important factor behind the emphasis on self-sufficiency in the early 1950s was the payments crisis that emerged in those years. This was a period of growing demand for goods of all kinds, especially from areas where imports had ceased during the war and where a vigorous process of recovery was under way. Because North America was the major supplier of industrial and agricultural goods, importers had to pay in dollars, which soon became scarce. Many deficit countries, even those receiving concessional payment terms and other forms of aid from the United States, were forced to curtail their overall and food imports. In particular, Latin American countries had to introduce severe import restrictions. The problem of agricultural surpluses The State of Food and Agriculture followed the problem of growing agricultural surpluses in some countries closely. It covered it extensively in 1954, referring in particular to the 1953 FAO Conference, which had discussed at length the complex issues involved. The central ones were: how to dispose of surpluses without disrupting world agricultural markets and what to do to ensure that production would expand in line with world requirements without adding to the surpluses. The Conference led to the establishment of a standing subcommittee of the FAO Committee on Commodity Problems (CCP) in order to provide a regular forum for intergovernmental consultations on these issues. The idea of using surplus food commodities to alleviate food emergencies and promote development - surplus disposal - gained ground and led to the introduction of food aid as a form of development assistance. This publication also discussed the price equalization schemes adopted by some exporting countries to attenuate price fluctuations, underlining the value of moving towards international commodity agreements to stabilize production and prices at a level that was satisfactory to both exporters and importers Reassessing Africa Africa began receiving ample coverage from this publication in the late 1950s. A special FAO study of food and agricultural development in Africa South of the Sahara was included in The State of Food and Agriculture 1958 , which depicted a mixed record of agricultural performances since the conclusion of the war. In general, food production had kept pace with population growth, fish production had increased to three times its pre-war level, and dietary levels were considered by and large to be in line with requirements - despite cases of serious food shortages, especially in the periods preceding the harvests. While it was still regarded as an empty continent (with only 5 percent of the world's population and seven people/km 2 overall), Africa had areas of population density that were too high for the maintenance of soil fertility under shifting cultivation and its forest cover was being ruthlessly destroyed, with serious consequences for its soil and water resources. Forests Chapter IV of The State of Food and Agriculture 1958 was entitled The growth of forest industries and their impact on the world's forests. It reviewed the development of forest industries from their early stages through to their enormous growth in the postwar period. For instance, wood pulp production had doubled in the ten years following the war to reach 56 million tonnes in 1956. Such expansion imposed enormous pressure on forest resources, the effects of which were, however, grossly understated (Tabloid educators have familiarized most people with the fact that 50 ha of forest is consumed by a single Sunday edition of a New York newspaper). The study emphasized that the world's forests were adequate to meet these demands and that the forest industry was in many cases the best friend of forests. It stated that in many parts of the world, large-scale industrial exploiters of the forest are today setting a shining example of forest care and conservation. Opposing views were to come to the fore in the following decades.
标签: 经验与教训
