http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_82bb05080100zva6.html 基于武书连算法结果的名校排名与招生人数相关性检验 首先,笔者声明,此相关性检验是分层次的检验,就像生物中的对照实验或控制单一变量法,假定这几所名校其他指标相近,如果你硬是把其他招生上万的一般学校放进来就违背了分层检验。当然你会说清华北大跟另外三所学校的其他指标也有差异,但本文中的这两幅图恰好也反映出了这种差异,从侧面也验证了该相关性检验在某种程度上的合理性。 相关系数 R 的绝对值 |R| 越是趋于 0 ,表明排名与数量指标的相关性越弱,相对来说,排名也越看重“质量”,而非“数量”。但是,武书连的排名与数量关系 |R|=0.8427 ,非常接近 1 ,这就意味着,这种排名和数量有着强关联性,已经达到 0.8427 ,这个数值非常大,如果是 1 的话,说明排名和数量将完全等同,由于武书连排名相关系数 R=-0.8427 ,也即是负相关,换句话说,其他指标相近或差异微弱时,“数量”越大,“排名”越是靠前。这跟我们老百姓以及胡主席、温总理所强调的当前阶段高等教育“质量优先发展”的理念完全背离。 下面,我们再看看针对大陆的这几所名校,泰晤士报的国际排名与数量指标的相关检验: 在 2011~2012 年英国泰晤士报的世界大学排名中名次与数量的相关性 R 仅为 0.3435 ,也即是说,这样的排名在针对全球名校排名时更看重一所学校的质量而非完全或强相关地依赖数量。相比而言,在泰晤士报的排名中更加凸显了对一所名校“质量优先发展”的导向性。 综上所述,武书连排名的算法确实值得人们质疑的,某种程度上具有一定的迷惑性和误导性,名校间其他指标相近或差异微弱时,“数量”将是武书连排名的利器,“质量”几乎不再重要。这可能也是他不断强调类似美国常春藤那种“小而精”的名校无法在中国生存的论断的由来吧。 咦嘘兮,武书连排名:名校招生少,在中国简直死路一条! 附录: 2011~2012 英国权威泰晤士报 (The Times) 学校 国际排名 国内排名(仅大陆) 清华大学 71 2 北京大学 49 1 复旦大学 226~250 4 中国科学技术大学 192 3 浙江大学 301~350 8 …… …… …… World University Rank in Asia of The Times Higher Education http://www.timeshighereducation.co.uk/world-university-rankings/2011-2012/asia.html Top Asian Universities 2011-2012 World Rank Institution Country / Region Overall score Teaching International mix Industry income Research Citations 30 University of Tokyo Japan 74.3 86.1 23 76.6 80.3 69.1 34 University of Hong Kong Hong Kong 72.3 74 83.7 64.1 80.1 60.5 40 National University of Singapore Singapore 70.9 65.7 93 60.7 79 63.4 49 Peking University( 北京大学 ) China 65.6 82.3 51.7 99.9 64.1 51 52 Kyoto University Japan 64.8 76.4 21.1 71.7 72 56.3 53 Pohang University of Science and Technology Republic of Korea 64.6 56.4 25 100 51.9 92.3 62 Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Hong Kong 61.7 51 80.1 59 58.6 71 71 Tsinghua University (清华大学) China 59.5 74.1 33.4 99.8 70.1 37.4 94 Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology Republic of Korea 54.5 64.2 29.3 100 54.6 47.1 108 Tokyo Institute of Technology Japan 52.8 56 24.9 66.3 58.9 49.5 119 Osaka University Japan 51 61.8 21.1 75 56.5 40 120 Tohoku University Japan 50.8 57.7 25.6 78.9 55.7 42.9 121 Hebrew University of Jerusalem Israel 50.4 47.7 53 25 56.4 48.4 124 Seoul National University Republic of Korea 50.1 64.6 16.3 42.6 50.8 44 151 Chinese University of Hong Kong Hong Kong 46.6 47 69.5 36.4 50.2 37.8 154 National Taiwan University Taiwan 46.2 47.8 20.7 40 58.5 39.2 166 Tel Aviv University Israel 45.4 47.3 30.1 35 60.7 33 169 Nanyang Technological University Singapore 45 41.4 89.8 44.4 47.8 34.5 192 University of Science and Technology of China (中国科大) China 42.7 38.9 14.8 29.7 23.5 73.6 193 City University of Hong Kong Hong Kong 42.6 30.2 61.6 50.1 35 57.4 201-225 Bilkent University Turkey Data withheld by THE 27.9 48.5 29.4 22.3 60.8 201-225 Nagoya University Japan Data withheld by THE 45.5 21.2 33.1 39.2 43.8 201-225 National Tsing Hua University Taiwan Data withheld by THE 42.7 17.7 46.8 44.5 39.7 201-225 Technion Israel Institute of Technology Israel Data withheld by THE 38.7 48.9 33.6 45 34 226-250 Fudan University (复旦大学) China Data withheld by THE 42.4 36.1 40.5 26.2 42.9 226-250 Korea University Republic of Korea Data withheld by THE 39.5 23.4 49.7 39.6 30.2 226-250 National Chiao Tung University Taiwan Data withheld by THE 36.4 24.2 100 44.5 25.1 226-250 Tokyo Metropolitan University Japan Data withheld by THE 19 17.8 27.6 10.3 84.3 226-250 Yonsei University Republic of Korea Data withheld by THE 41.5 23.3 47.9 33.6 36.9 251-275 Hong Kong Polytechnic University Hong Kong Data withheld by THE 30.1 62.5 72.8 37.3 22.2 251-275 Kyushu University Japan Data withheld by THE 46.8 19.5 75.1 30.7 23.2 251-275 Nanjing University (南京大学) China Data withheld by THE 40.9 25 42.9 24.2 42.3 251-275 National Sun Yat-Sen University Taiwan Data withheld by THE 24.9 16 42.1 30.4 48.5 251-275 University of Tsukuba Japan Data withheld by THE 37.2 27.2 32 26.2 41.4 276-300 Hokkaido University Japan Data withheld by THE 44.5 18.8 38.7 34.3 21.6 276-300 Hong Kong Baptist University Hong Kong Data withheld by THE 20 58.9 25.3 11.2 59.7 276-300 Istanbul Technical University Turkey Data withheld by THE 25.1 18.9 99.1 18.2 48.9 276-300 Middle East Technical University Turkey Data withheld by THE 37 23.5 43.2 28.9 35.1 276-300 Sun Yat-sen University China Data withheld by THE 33.3 20.7 42.1 14.3 50.5 276-300 Tokyo Medical and Dental University Japan Data withheld by THE 42.8 18 40.8 22.6 36.7 301-350 Bar-Ilan University Israel Data withheld by THE 27.9 47 28.5 32.2 15.7 301-350 Boğazii University Turkey Data withheld by THE 24.5 36.2 34.7 19.7 45.7 301-350 Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay India Data withheld by THE 43.8 14.3 24.2 15.7 38.8 301-350 Keio University Japan Data withheld by THE 32.3 18.3 40 21.9 26.1 301-350 National Taiwan University of Science and Technology Taiwan Data withheld by THE 24.3 15.6 42.9 37 19.4 301-350 Shanghai Jiao Tong University (上海交通大学) China Data withheld by THE 39.4 20.5 85.2 29.7 19.1 301-350 Sharif University of Technology Iran Data withheld by THE 28.5 12.7 93.1 29.7 19.3 301-350 Sungkyunkwan University (SKKU) Republic of Korea Data withheld by THE 31.4 26.6 99.4 32.1 23.9 301-350 Zhejiang University (浙江大学) China Data withheld by THE 38.8 13.9 84.4 27.2 23 351-400 Harbin Institute of Technology (哈尔滨工业大学) China Data withheld by THE 29 21 97.2 12.5 21 351-400 Hiroshima University Japan Data withheld by THE 27.7 18.8 39.4 16.3 20.1 351-400 Kobe University Japan Data withheld by THE 28.3 18.1 33.5 15.5 24.3 351-400 Kyung Hee University Republic of Korea Data withheld by THE 37.1 31.4 79.9 17.9 6.6 351-400 Mahidol University Thailand Data withheld by THE 29.9 45 29 14.7 20.9 351-400 National Central University Taiwan Data withheld by THE 24.7 22.2 78.6 21.4 27.1 351-400 National Taiwan Ocean University Taiwan Data withheld by THE 12.5 14.3 68 19.7 31 351-400 Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology Japan Data withheld by THE 26.5 18 41.5 15.8 21.7 351-400 Waseda University Japan Data withheld by THE 25.4 27.1 27.3 17.3 29.7 351-400 Wuhan University China Data withheld by THE 31.3 21.7 66.7 12.9 25.3 351-400 Yuan Ze University Taiwan Data withheld by THE