知彼解己？学一个概念容易，但要做的真的理解很难，而理解后再应用更难。所以学概念不是目的，应用才是目的。 ABJ语录 5个学时 第2学时：2011年，1月 2010-12,11,10 共4本 牛人牛，不是浮云是什么？ Note1:读地道的英文。从1981年3月出版了第一本《风险分析》，到现在2011年，《风险分析》已经三十岁了。The first issue of Risk Analysis was published in March 1981. Now as we start 2011, we celebrate the journal’s 30th anniversary with a special article to lead us into our fourth decade. In it, we spotlight the journal’s first three editors, Robert Cumming,Curtis Travis, and Elizabeth Andersen . We interviewed each of these remarkable individuals and share with readers what they told us about their tenures as EIC and their goals for the journal. We hope you enjoy reading it as much as we enjoyed preparing it. Note2：The probabilistic UF approach is very simple, it is totally valid, with no conundrums, and can be applied without any hesitation, given the validity of the assumptions . The assumptions can, and partly have been, confirmed by real data. Note3：It should be borne in mind that some uncertainties are difficult to quantify. For example, concentration data in food commodities are often not based on randomly drawn samples, and may be biased. As far as such uncertainties are unquantifiable, the required caution should be transferred to the results of any risk assessment. Note4：公共政策导向的跨学科研究 1979年1月1日，美国总统尼克松（President Richard Nixon，共产党）迫于民主党总统候选人Henry Jackson和Edmund Muskie的压力，签署了《美国国家环境政策法》（the National Environmental Policy Act），从此迈出了现代环境科学和管理的重要一步。随后相继有一百多个国家出台了一系列有关保护工人健康、空气质量、土地质量、水资源等法律，这些法律中明确承认工业化国家存在严重的公共健康和环境风险问题。 1971年，尼克松对癌症宣战，很多疾病推断与环境暴露有关。 1970年，作为国际期刊《风险分析》的首任的三位编辑，Drs. Robert (Bob) Cumming, Curtis Travis和 Elizabeth (Betty) Anderson已在人类风险和环境风险问题上积累了大量经验。他们意识到这些法律法规所隐含的挑战需要更多的知识，而这并非单一学科能满足的，跨学科研究和交流势在必然。让我们跟随Drs. Cumming, Travis, and Anderson的目光来感受《风险分析》的创造和发展，祝贺《风险分析》已走过的三十年。Kimberly Thompson, Paul Deisler,and Richard Schwing in 2005 Dr. Cumming, then a genetic toxicologist in the Biology Division of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and now a book publisher, became the first editor, the interim first president of SRA, and the convener召集人 of the ad hoc group that created both the Journal and the Society. Dr. Cumming started thinking about an interdisciplinary risk-related journal during the mid 1970s.The more he traveled nationally and internationally,the more the idea made sense. Speaking at conferences in the United States, Stockholm斯德哥尔摩, Vancouver温哥华,Argentina阿根廷, Brazil巴西, Chile智利, and other locations, he recognized that his peers were frustrated by the lack of access to ideas outside of their own discipline. Some,he told us, pointed to instances when their research would have benefited by crossing disciplines. Collectively,they urged Dr. Cumming to create a journal dedicated to interdisciplinary risk analysis. The ad hoc group项目小组 called for a journal with biomedical, engineering, policy, and social sciences sections , and it reasoned that a society had to be created both to protect the quality of the science published in the journal and to control the rights to use the scholarship. In other words, they were unwilling to trust the scholarship to the vagaries of a commercial publisher. Dr. Cumming noted that these decisions implied two risks: (1) traditional disciplinary journals would siphon off吮吸 papers (that was and is still the case), and (2) university-based departments would undervalue articles published in an interdisciplinary journal (less of a problem today than 30 years ago). For example, after posing the question “Is risk assessment a science?” Dr. Cumming concluded that “risk assessment is not a science per se. It cannot demand the certainty and completeness of science. It must produce answers because decisions will be made, with or without its inputs”(p. 1). Dr. Cumming then went on to discuss the quality of data in risk analysis , the need to integrate across disciplines, concerns about the creation of instant experts, and the possible abuse by interest groups.Any one of these issues is as likely to provoke a heated discussion today as it was three decades ago. Dr. Curtis Travis was a group leader working on risk assessment at ORNL when he started helping Dr. Cumming. “I had some secretarial assistance, Dr.Cumming didn’t. In 1983, Dr. Cumming decided that I should take over the Journal.” Dr. Travis estimates that he spent about 10% of his time and that his secretary spent about a third of her time on the Journal during those early years. Dr. Travis’s major concern was that the Journal might not survive. “We struggled to meet our minimum 250 page agreement with Plenum. We had to increase the number of quality articles to move the Journal to a sound financial basis.” Dr. Travis remembers working with Richard Burk (Executive Director of the SRA) to have brochures printed and then passing them out at technical meetings. Dr. Travis estimates that it sometimes took six months to get an initial review of an article (today it averages about three months), and sometimes he was the only reviewer . Submissions began to increase. The first volume in 1981 has 302 pages. By 1990, the total had doubled to 637 pages and the contract with Plenum was renegotiated to increase the royalties the Society received to $50,000 per year, and to publish the Journal six times a year, an increase from four. In 2001, only a few years after Dr. Travis stepped down, the number of pages exceeded 1,000 for the first time.We are now close to 2,000 pages a year and we publish monthly issues. Dr. Travis enthusiastically recalled receiving papers about “hot topics” of the day, including environmental risk assessment and chemical risks,hazardous waste management, environmental and occupational cancer risk, low-dose extrapolation, and policy-relevant methodology papers . He called for and received more papers on the theoretical foundations of risk analysis, and he tried to obtain more engineering papers but with mixed success (still the case today). Yet, the biggest boost was when the social sciences became interested. Dr. Travis noted: “Risk communication didn’t really even exist when I became editor. It was a trickle at first, which slowly grew, and then exploded during the late 1990s. The Journal started receiving many papers on risk communication and risk perception.” Dr. Betty Anderson was not surprised when Rae Zimmerman, who was heading the search committee for the new editor, approached her about the editor in-chief (EIC) role . As a member of the ad hoc committee, Dr. Anderson had served the SRA in many capacities since its creation, including as its president, and she understood the importance of a high-quality journal for the Society. Her objectives for the Journal were as follows: (1) To make the Journal a “flagship journal” in the field . (2) To expand the editorial staff, including the appointment of a managing editor and three area editors, which eventually became six by the end of her tenure, and now stands at nine. (3) To maintain the balance between health, engineering,and social sciences and remain open to the idea of expanding into other related topics. (4) To put the Journal on a good business footing. (5) To shorten the time from manuscript submission to publication, if accepted, with the initial target set at six months . Dr. Anderson also began to slowly attract more international papers, and she noted that it was a challenge to bring these papers up to required standards of scholarship and writing . Our primary intent is to continue to build Risk Analysis,now published by the newly merged company Wiley-Blackwell, in its role as the flagship interdisciplinary journal in the risk field by publishing highquality,cutting edge research that is widely cited. We now publish about 2,000 pages year , spread across all of the subspecialties of SRA as represented by our Area Editors. Our Area Editors are amazing people, devoting their time not only to managing over 400 paper submissions a year but also creating theme issues, which we know from our readers are popular. Note5：This issue begins with three provocative letters to the editor. Dioxins二恶英 have been a scientific puzzle and public policy issue for 60 years. Joshua Cohen and G. M. Gray comment on the U.S. EPA’s reassessment of the toxicity of dioxin, using a National Academy of Science panel as the launching point. Next, a letter from Jamie Donatuto, Barbara Harper, and Catherine O’Neill asserts that present Native American fish consumption rates are artificially low at this time and using the low consumption rates in risk assessment can unintentionally set an inappropriate fish consumption level and hence impact tribal rights to consume fish. The last of our three letters is from Ted Yellman regarding a recent article by Tony Cox about the definition of frequency and how it relates to risk analysis.(1) Yellman distinguishes between “event-truncated” and “time-truncated”distributions. In a response, Cox counters that this distinction is not relevant to the subject of his essay. Risk is always a measure of exposure to loss,but that measure can be based upon either a frequency or a probability. Therefore, I have not exclusively assumed one or the other in the preceding three statements. Furthermore, a broad picture of risk includes not only point estimates of average loss values or loss-value time-rates , but also estimated degrees of variability变异性 in loss values from experiment to experiment, and an analyst’s uncertainty about the accuracy of his or her loss-value point estimates.(4) The latter two aspects of risk are not addressed in the preceding three statements. Note6：Terms used in systems risk analyses are all too often undefined, or poorly or inconsistently defined.(2)To provide a better foundation for the discussion that follows, in this section I suggest some general definitions. More specific definitions appear further on in the article. 第1学时：2011年，从7月到2月 共6本书 详读了主编的导语，因为它提供了所有文章的主要内容和价值；略读了目录；挑读了对论文有启发的文章，比如基于稀少数据的风险分析；系统观下的风险定义等。 主要收获： 1.文献阅读深度和广度与阅读材料性质息息相关。与其说是在读一篇文章，还不如说是在与另外一个思想在碰撞。 2.风险分析的范围很广泛，《风险分析》中很少涉及自然灾害的文章，主要以食品安全、恐怖袭击等为主。这些并不表示没必要读《风险分析》了，相反，为了开阔视野，更需要读。 3.政府在风险研究中的投入减少了么？对此，你有什么体会？ 4.百家争鸣 A发一文，B为了纠偏发一文，A回信纠正；B回信纠正；A再回信纠正。这样的乒乓式是学者的一大乐趣。只可惜，我们从没体会过这样的生活。真是杯具。我们得离开，为了生存。 一稿于2011-8-16 22:03 二稿于2011-8-19 17:25
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