看到纽约时报一篇由保罗. 克鲁格曼( PAUL KRUGMAN )撰写得针对中国人民币专栏文章, 这位 保罗. 克鲁格曼可不是等闲之辈,是2008年诺贝尔经济学奖得主.是新国际贸易主义理论的创建人.他不但是一个出色的学者,也是一位敢说敢言的政论家.经常出现在周末几大主流电视台时政新闻讨论中, 更频频在纽约时报发表文章,针砭时政,是美国民主自由主义者的典型代表,美国的很多政治家都阅读他的文章,据报道奥巴马总统也是他的热心读者,所以他的意见决不仅仅是个人意思,也许是一个值得我们国家重视的信号. 文章主要指责我国的人民币汇率偏低,是人为操控,从而使出口竞争力上升,破坏了全球经济(有点强词夺理).美国必须采取措施,要求中国人民币升值.并且批评美国现行采取的不和中国正面冲突的政策,如果中国不提高人民币价值,美国必须真正采取惩罚性措施,迫使人民币升值.并且分析美国不必惧怕中国抛售美元, 这样做更大的吃亏方是中国,美元贬值,可以使美国出口增加,而中国不但损失大量美元储备,出口也会大幅下降. 我们国家必须积极准备采取的应对政策,避免可能带来的经济损失. 网上有一介绍:http://www.ljps.com.cn/jingji/detail.php?iEcoID=43 保 罗克鲁格曼，现为普林斯顿大学教授教授。克鲁格曼的主要研究领域包括国际贸易、国际金融、货币危机与汇率变化理论。 他创建的新国际贸易理论，分析解释了收入增长和不完善竞争对国际贸易的影响。他的理论思想富于原创性，常常先于他人注意到重要的经济问题，然后建立起令人赞叹的深刻而简洁优雅的模型，等待其他后来者的进一步研究。他被誉为当今世界上最令人瞩目的贸易理论家 之一，而他在1994年对亚洲金融危机的预言，更使他在国际经济舞台上的地位如日中天。他目前担任着许多国家和地区的经济政策咨询顾问。 克鲁格曼是主流经济学派的衣钵传人和捍卫者，是萨缪尔森和索罗的爱将。但同时，克鲁格曼又是一位急先锋，敢于向任何传统理论 开战。在过去十余年间，他出版了近二十本著作，发表文章几百篇。他的文笔清晰流畅，深入浅出，不仅是专业研究人员的必读之物， 更是普通大众的良师益友。在公众的眼中，他是一位不可多得的大众经济学家。 Op-Ed Columnist Taking On China function getSharePasskey() { return 'ex=1426392000&en=186672c715d31e77&ei=5124';} function getShareURL() { return encodeURIComponent('http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/15/opinion/15krugman.html'); } function getShareHeadline() { return encodeURIComponent('Taking On China'); } function getShareDescription() { return encodeURIComponent('It’s time for America to confront China about the undervaluation of its currency, which is adding to the world’s economic problems at a time when those problems are already severe.'); } function getShareKeywords() { return encodeURIComponent('International Trade and World Market,Yuan (Currency),United States Economy,Currency,China'); } function getShareSection() { return encodeURIComponent('opinion'); } function getShareSectionDisplay() { return encodeURIComponent('Op-Ed Columnist'); } function getShareSubSection() { return encodeURIComponent(''); } function getShareByline() { return encodeURIComponent('By PAUL KRUGMAN'); } function getSharePubdate() { return encodeURIComponent('March 15, 2010'); } By PAUL KRUGMAN Published: March 14, 2010 Tensions are rising over Chinese economic policy, and rightly so: Chinas policy of keeping its currency, the renminbi, undervalued has become a significant drag on global economic recovery. Something must be done. Skip to next paragraph Fred R. Conrad/The New York Times Paul Krugman Go to Columnist Page Blog: The Conscience of a Liberal Readers' Comments Readers shared their thoughts on this article. Read All Comments (330) To give you a sense of the problem: Widespread complaints that China was manipulating its currency selling renminbi and buying foreign currencies, so as to keep the renminbi weak and Chinas exports artificially competitive began around 2003. At that point China was adding about $10 billion a month to its reserves, and in 2003 it ran an overall surplus on its current account a broad measure of the trade balance of $46 billion. Today, China is adding more than $30 billion a month to its $2.4 trillion hoard of reserves. The International Monetary Fund expects China to have a 2010 current surplus of more than $450 billion 10 times the 2003 figure. This is the most distortionary exchange rate policy any major nation has ever followed. And its a policy that seriously damages the rest of the world. Most of the worlds large economies are stuck in a liquidity trap deeply depressed, but unable to generate a recovery by cutting interest rates because the relevant rates are already near zero. China, by engineering an unwarranted trade surplus, is in effect imposing an anti-stimulus on these economies, which they cant offset. So how should we respond? First of all, the U.S. Treasury Department must stop fudging and obfuscating. Twice a year, by law, Treasury must issue a report identifying nations that manipulate the rate of exchange between their currency and the United States dollar for purposes of preventing effective balance of payments adjustments or gaining unfair competitive advantage in international trade. The laws intent is clear: the report should be a factual determination, not a policy statement. In practice, however, Treasury has been both unwilling to take action on the renminbi and unwilling to do what the law requires, namely explain to Congress why it isnt taking action. Instead, it has spent the past six or seven years pretending not to see the obvious. Will the next report, due April 15, continue this tradition? Stay tuned. If Treasury does find Chinese currency manipulation, then what? Here, we have to get past a common misunderstanding: the view that the Chinese have us over a barrel, because we dont dare provoke China into dumping its dollar assets. What you have to ask is, What would happen if China tried to sell a large share of its U.S. assets? Would interest rates soar? Short-term U.S. interest rates wouldnt change: theyre being kept near zero by the Fed, which wont raise rates until the unemployment rate comes down. Long-term rates might rise slightly, but theyre mainly determined by market expectations of future short-term rates. Also, the Fed could offset any interest-rate impact of a Chinese pullback by expanding its own purchases of long-term bonds. Its true that if China dumped its U.S. assets the value of the dollar would fall against other major currencies, such as the euro. But that would be a good thing for the United States, since it would make our goods more competitive and reduce our trade deficit. On the other hand, it would be a bad thing for China, which would suffer large losses on its dollar holdings. In short, right now America has China over a barrel, not the other way around. So we have no reason to fear China. But what should we do? Some still argue that we must reason gently with China, not confront it. But weve been reasoning with China for years, as its surplus ballooned, and gotten nowhere: on Sunday Wen Jiabao, the Chinese prime minister, declared absurdly that his nations currency is not undervalued. (The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that the renminbi is undervalued by between 20 and 40 percent.) And Mr. Wen accused other nations of doing what China actually does, seeking to weaken their currencies just for the purposes of increasing their own exports. But if sweet reason wont work, whats the alternative? In 1971 the United States dealt with a similar but much less severe problem of foreign undervaluation by imposing a temporary 10 percent surcharge on imports, which was removed a few months later after Germany, Japan and other nations raised the dollar value of their currencies. At this point, its hard to see China changing its policies unless faced with the threat of similar action except that this time the surcharge would have to be much larger, say 25 percent. I dont propose this turn to policy hardball lightly. But Chinese currency policy is adding materially to the worlds economic problems at a time when those problems are already very severe. Its time to take a stand.
标签: 经济制裁
