编者语: 几十年来,发展中国家一直在努力追赶先进的工业化国家,但是在过去的70年中,成功者寥寥。尽管这些国家自身已付出极大努力,并获得了大量官方发展援助,但世界人口的很大一部分仍然处于极度贫困和增长停滞状态。为什么追赶如此困难? China World Economy 刊登的由林毅夫和王燕合作撰写的文章 —— Seventy Years of Economic Development: A Review from the Angle of New Structural Economics ,从新结构经济学的角度,寻求这一问题的答案。 回顾过去70年的世界经济发展,不难发现,尽管付出了诸多努力,许多发展中国家长期无法追赶上发达国家的脚步。遵循结构主义的国家初期有能力建立一些现代工业,但随后即停滞不前;而遵循新自由主义处方的国家经历了近百次危机,其后果在2008年爆发的全球金融危机中暴露无遗,造成生活水平的停滞不前,侵蚀着国民财富。但是,并未遵循结构主义和新自由主义的中国和其他东亚新兴经济体,实现了史上最快的经济发展,并在减贫方面已经取得了前所未有的进展。 文章试图从“结构主义”到“新自由主义”再到“新结构经济学”的演变历史及相关政策的叙述来梳理发展经济学思想,从结构转型的角度回顾发展中国家经济增长的历程及发展经验,提供一种新的视角,尝试展望下一代发展经济学的未来。本文还着墨于对新自由主义的反思,论证政府和产业政策在市场经济中的重要作用。作者指出,诚如著名经济学家凯恩斯所说:“思想塑造了历史进程”;“困难不在于新思想而在于摆脱旧思想。”需要认识到结构主义和新自由主义的教条性和局限性。 面对新冠疫情,发展中国家正受到最大的打击,大量资本从新兴经济体流出,正使许多国家陷入进退两难的境地。国际货币基金组织等机构警告称,这将是自上世纪30年代大萧条以来最严重的经济衰退。在后疫情时代,世界各国的决策者更需要团结一致,结合东、西方发展经济学观点,寻求以人为本、促进经济可持续增长、创造就业、和平稳定与共同繁荣的发展模式,以避免全球经济进一步分裂、世界格局出现两极化发展态势。此外,在非洲2063年计划、“一带一路”倡议和诚如新结构经济学所提倡的发展中国家发展思想的引导下,重启工业化和产业升级的新趋势将继续生根发芽,并在发展中国家实现促进就业、消除贫困、逐步走向经济可持续增长的美好愿景。 引用本文: Yifu Lin, J. and Wang, Y. (2020), Seventy Years of Economic Development: A Review from the Angle of New Structural Economics. China World Economy. Accepted Author Manuscript. doi:10.1111/cwe.12340 文章链接: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/cwe.12340 关于 China World Economy A bimonthly fully peer-reviewed SSCI journal featuring original academic work examining domestic and international issues arising in the context of China’s economic reform and opening-up,co-published by the Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and Wiley, with ISI impact factor of 1.865. 期刊主页: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/1749124x 投稿地址: https://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/cwe
My book “What drives China’s economy” published Amazon 拙著《中国经济发展的动力:经济、社会政治、历史和文化因素》已经由劳特利奇(泰勒和弗朗西斯集团的子公司)出版。写这本书的目的是为中国在过去 40 年的快速增长(即中国奇迹)提供一个较全面的解释,并提出一个理解经济增长的总体框架。这本书共分四章: 1 、中国改革开放简史; 2 、利率管制与中国经济增长; 3 、社会规划者的问题及制度机构在中国经济增长中的作用; 4 、中国模式的未来。 第一章对中国的改革开放进程作了客观的描述。由于划时代的事件很少没有前奏,中国的开放至少可以追溯到 1972 年。当年毛泽东和周恩来决定进口成套的化纤和化肥生产设备、轧钢厂和电站,价值 43 亿美元(所谓 43 计划),而当时中国每年的基本建设投资总额为 412 亿元人民币。 1976 年,毛泽东和华国锋派出项南为团长的中国农业机械化代表团赴美,考察美国农业机械化的经验。虽然正式的叙事把 1978 年 12 月 18-22 日举行的十一届三中全会作为改革开放的开始,但是当时中央领导人的改革思路仍然是在中央计划的框架内提高国有企业和集体企业的效率。这种以公有经济为主体的改革思路可能一直延续到九十年代。中国改革开放成功的真正原因和动力是千百万中国老百姓和基层干部的创业进取精神,他们坚持不懈地突破了当时的政策束缚。他们的创业精神和创新得到了一些务实开放的省级领导人的大力支持。这些省级领导人包括安徽省委第一书记万里、广东省委第一书记习仲勋、福建省委第一书记项南和接替习仲勋担任广东省委第一书记的任仲夷等。 第二章介绍了增长理论,并解释了中国高储蓄率和利率控制对经济快速增长的贡献。这一章借鉴托马斯·库恩的范式转换科学革命和正常科学的理论,提出了一个范式转换增长模型,以改进如索洛 - 斯旺模型等现有的增长理论。在范式转换增长模型中,增长可以分为范式转换增长和正常增长。范式转换增长阶段是指像新石器时代农业革命和工业革命等主要生产方式发生变化时的经济增长阶段。正常增长阶段是生产范式转变完成后的阶段,这一阶段的增长依赖于小规模的产品创新和过程创新,如当代发达经济体的增长。正常增长对应于索洛的稳态增长,但索洛的稳态不存在于现实世界中,因为小规模的创新一直在发生。在范式转换的增长过程中,高储蓄率和高投资率将导致高增长率。改革开放前后的中国经济仍处于范式转换的增长过程中(由农业国向工业国转化阶段),因此,高储蓄率可以促进经济增长。政府保持利率低于市场均衡水平是中国经济高速增长的一个重要因素。市场均衡利率应等于资本的边际产品( MPK )。当利率保持在低于 MPK 的水平时,企业家会大量借钱投资和用自己的钱投资,这会导致比利率由市场决定时更多的投资。高储蓄意味着较低的消费率和出口占 GDP 的很大比例,因此汇率管制成为确保人民币汇率低和保持中国产品竞争力的必要条件。 第 3 章介绍了拉姆齐问题和拉姆齐 - 卡斯 - 库普曼模型对该问题的市场解决方案,并分析了当社会规划者的目标是实现 GDP 的最大增长时,制度 / 机构可以如何做出贡献。这一章提出了一个研究经济增长的新框架: 1 )技术进步路径( T ); 2 )社会目标(由社会规划者确定)( O ); 3 )实现社会目标的效率( P ); 4 )社会稳定( S )。用这一 TOPS 框架来分析,中国经济快速增长是因为: 1 )中国经济正处于范式转换的增长阶段(工业化); 2 )中国领导人在过去四十年把高增长率作为中国社会发展的目标(正如邓小平所说的“发展是硬道理”); 3 )中国的制度 / 机构确保了发展计划的快速执行; 4 )中国的制度、机构和文化确保了快速变革时代的社会稳定,而在这个变革时代初期存在着社会福利水平下降、就业保障水平下降、贫富差距加剧等许多问题。本章还介绍了中国共产党领导地位的历史形成及中国文化在维持社会稳定中的作用。 第四章分析了中国模式的未来。中国完成工业化并达到发达国家的收入水平后,经济将进入正常增长阶段,其增长速度将与发达国家相当。当中国人均国内生产总值达到 2 万美元时,中国不太可能仍以目前的速度增长。苏联 / 俄罗斯在人均国内生产总值达到 2 万美元之前就开始停滞不前,而亚洲四小龙在达到这一水平之后仍以较低但正常的速度增长。中国应在充分利用范式转换增长潜力的同时,为范式转换增长向正常增长的转变做好准备。 (本中文版本借助了百度翻译) My book “What drives China’s economy: economic, socio-political, historical and cultural factors” has been published by Routledge (a subsidiary of the Taylor Francis group). The objective to write this book is to provide a comprehensive interpretation of China’s rapid growth in the past four decades, the China Miracle, and a framework for understanding economic growth in general. The book contains four chapters: 1. A brief history of China’s reform and opening; 2. Interest rate control and China’s economic growth; 3. The social planner’s problem and institutional roles in China’s growth; and 4. The future of the China Model. Chapter 1 tries to give an objective account of China’s reform and opening process. Since epoch-making events rarely occur without a prelude, “A brief history of China’s reform and opening” traces China’s opening back to 1972, when Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai decided to import complete sets of chemical fibres and fertilizers producing equipment, steel rolling mills, and power stations worth of US$ 4.3 billion (the so-called 43 plan). At that time, China’s total annual capital construction investment was RMB 41.2 billion. Mao Zedong and Hua Guofeng sent an Agricultural Mechanization delegation led by Xiang Nan to the US for investigating American experience in mechanizing agriculture in 1976. Although the official narratives denote the Third Plenum of the Eleventh Central Committee of the CPC during 18-22 December 1978 as the beginning of China’s reform and opening, the leadership’s idea to reform was still to increase efficiency of state owned enterprises (SOEs) and collectively owned enterprises (COEs) within the framework of central planning. This might still be true until the 1990s. The true causes and driver of China’s success are the enterprising spirit of millions ordinary Chinese people and grassroots cadres, who were perseveringly breaking though the policy constraints set by the government and CPC Central Committee. Their entrepreneurship and business innovation were supported by pragmatic and open-minded provincial leaders such as Wan Li (First Secretary of CPC Anhui Provincial Committee), Xi Zhongxun (First Secretary of CPC Guangdong Provincial Committee), Xiang Nan (First Secretary of CPC Fujian Provincial Committee) and Ren Zhongyi (First Secretary of CPC Guangdong Provincial Committee succeeding Xi Zhongxun). Chapter 2 introduces growth theories and explains China’s rapid growth with high saving rates and interest rate control. In this chapter I propose a paradigm-changing growth model to improve the existing growth theories such as the Solow-Swan model. In the paradigm-changing growth model (in analogy with Thomas Kuhn’s paradigm-changing scientific revolution and normal science), growth can be divided into paradigm-changing growth and normal growth. The paradigm-changing growth denotes the stage of economic growth when the dominant mode of production changes, for example, during the Neolithic agricultural revolution and the industrial revolutions. The normal growth is the stage after the production paradigm change has been completed and the growth depends on small incremental product innovations and process innovations, like growth in the contemporary developed economies. The normal growth corresponds to Solow’s steady-state growth, but Solow’s steady-state does not exist in real world, because small incremental innovations happen all the time. During the paradigm-changing growth, high saving rates and high investment rates will lead to high growth rates. China’s economy before and since the beginning of reform and opening is still in the stage of industrialization, therefore, high saving rates can promote economic growth. The government keep interest rate lower than market equilibrium rate is an important factor. Market equilibrium interest rate should be equal to the marginal product of capital (MPK). When interest rates are kept lower than MPK, borrowing money to invest and using your own money to invest would be the right thing to do, which leads to more investment than that when interest rates are market determined. High savings imply lower consumption rate and the need to export a large proportion of GDP, so that exchange rate control become necessary to ensure low exchange rate of RMB for the competitiveness of Chinese products. Chapter 3 introduces the Ramsey problem and the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans market solution to the problem and analyses how institutions can contribute if the social planner’s objective is to have the maximum GDP growth. I propose a new framework to investigate how an economy grows: 1) technological progress path (T); 2) the objective of a society (determined by the social planner) (O); 3) performance in implementing the social objective (P); 4) social stability (S). China grows rapidly because 1) China’s economy is at the stage of paradigm-changing growth (industrialization); 2) China’s leadership has set high growth rate as its objective in the past (as Deng Xiaoping remarked, “development is the absolute truth”); 3) China’s institutions have ensured rapid execution of business development plans; and 4) China’s institutions and culture have ensured social stability during an age of fast changes with reduced social welfare, reduced job security and increased income inequality. The chapter also explains how the CPC’s leadership status formed historically and Chinese culture plays a role in maintaining social stability . Chapter 4 analyses the future of the China Model. When China completes its industrialization and reaches the income level of the developed countries, its economy will enter the stage of normal growth with growth rates comparable with theirs. It is unlikely that China can still grow at the current rate when China’s per capita GDP reaches US$20,000. The Soviet Union/Russia began to stagnate before their per capita GDP reaches US$20,000, while Asian tigers still grow at lower but decent rates after reaching that level. China should prepare for the transition from paradigm-changing growth to normal growth while fully exploit its potential in paradigm-changing growth. ( end )
(原文链接: http://www.sciencepublishinggroup.com/specialissue/specialissueinfo?specialissueid=346002journalid=346 ) 一、特刊征稿启示 (一)特刊主题 Application of Information Technology in the Development and Growth of Small and Medium Enterprises (二)截稿时间 Feb. 20, 2020 Submission Guidelines: http://www.sciencepublishinggroup.com/home/submission (三)客座主编 Israel Patiño Management and Information Technologies, Tecnologico de Estudios Superiores de Ecatepec, Ecatepec, Mexico (四)客座编辑 Xingwei Li School of Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu, China (五)介绍 The development of local, regional and national economic depends largely on the growth and development of small and medium enterprises, in this sense there are numerous factors that determine their permanence of this economic sector, so the use and implementation of technologies Information is a revulsive and core support in the search for innovation in its administrative and operational processes that translates into an increase in sales or resource savings. (六)征稿目标与范围 Information Technologies Innovation Small and medium enterprises Economic development Increase Administrative and operational processes (七)稿件上传指引 Manuscripts should be formatted according to the guidelines for authors (see: http://www.sciencepublishinggroup.com/journal/guideforauthors?journalid=346). Please download the template to format your manuscript. 二、期刊信息 (一)期刊名称 International Journal of Sustainability Management and Information Technologies (二)ISSN号码 ISSN Print: 2575-5102 ISSN Online: 2575-5110 (三)出版社 Science Publishing Group (四)地址 Science Publishing Group 1 Rockefeller Plaza, 10th and 11th Floors, New York, NY 10020 U.S.A. (五)检索 WorldCat CrossRef Academickeys ResearchBib Polish Scholarly Bibliography Directory of Research Journals Indexing Eurasian Scientific Journal Index