全球变暖致极端气候活动频发 美国宇航局科学家称,近年来包括美国在内的世界各地夏季越来越热,确定是人为造成的气候变化的后果。科学家指出,气候变化的严重性比20多年前所预测的还要糟。 美国宇航局戈达德太空飞行中心太空研究所负责人詹姆斯·汉森在一篇文章中写道,他在1988年提交给美国参议院的“严峻”气候暖化预测都显得太乐观了。他说,“我对全球气温升高的预测已获得了证实,不过,我未能充分探讨其平均涨幅将如何迅速地导致极端气候的增加。” 汉森及其同事在《美国科学院院报》中发表的报告中分析了过去60年的全球温度,揭示了“极其炎热的夏天,正以惊人的频率增长”。汉森表示,分析不是以模式或预测为依据,而是“对气候活动及温度的实际观测”,而结果是“不仅对未来,现在也令人深感不安”。 报告显示,在过去一个世纪,全球温度上升了0.8摄氏度,而极端气候活动变得更频繁。上个月所发布的一项国际研究,也认为温室气体排放,是导致2011年发生更多严重干旱、洪水和热浪的原因。 加州大学伯克利校园教授理查德·穆勒曾是全球气候暖化的怀疑论者,但他上周改变立场,表示数据显示其信念毫无根据,人类几乎是整件事的导因。(来源:中新网) Perception of climate change wrys 添加于 2012-8-7 14:51:14 65次阅读 | 0次推荐 | 0个评论 “Climate dice,” describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have become more and more “loaded” in the past 30 y, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3σ) warmer than the climatology of the 1951–1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth’s surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change. 作 者: James Hansena,Makiko Satoa,and Reto Ruedyb 期刊名称: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 期卷页: 第卷 第期 ~页 学科领域: 地球科学 大气科学 大气环境与全球气候变化 添加人是否为作者: 否 原文链接: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/07/30/1205276109.abstract?sid=3980e94c-561c-43a8-ab04-641f1e7fcfc2 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1205276109 ISBN: 0027-8424 关键词: