原文链接： http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_4a60f29e0101f4ax.html?tj=1 《华尔街日报》旗下科技网站AllThingsD知名评论员沃尔特·莫斯伯格(Walt Mossberg)周二对2013年科技发展趋势进行了预测，莫斯伯格认为，2013年平板电脑将继续蚕食笔记本电脑市场份额，硬件与软件相整合的“苹果模式”继续盛行，智能手机的价格将下滑，以及能 够播放高保真数字音乐的新型播放器问世等等。 以下为文章内容摘要： 消费科技的发展从不会停止：一些新的产品和服务将成为“游戏规则的改变者”，如苹果iPhone和iPad；而其他一些不断改进的产品也会越来 越好，如谷歌Android平台的每一个版本；还有一些产品在大胆尝试，如微软的Windows 8，将平板电脑体验与传统的PC环境相整合；此外，还会 有一些新产品诞生，无论是来自大企业还是小公司。 以下就是消费者在2013年可能看到的一些产品或技术，其中部分在刚刚过去的2012年已经成型，但在新的一年里会这样的趋势会更加明显。 平板 vs PC 包括iPad Mini在内的苹果iPad继续主导着平板电脑市场，与此同时，Android平板电脑最终也赢得了消费者。但该市场更大的一个趋势是，平板电脑将继续蚕食传统笔记本电脑的市场份额。 如今，消费者越来越多地使用平板电脑来替代笔记本，处理一些此前由笔记本才能完成的任务。但传统计算机不会消失，它们仍会处理一些特定任务，如海量内容创作，在这些方面它们的表现要强于平板电脑。 不管怎样，消费者使用笔记本的机会在减少，而在平板电脑上花费更多的时间，这还将使平板电脑逐渐取代另一种设备：电子书阅读器。许多分析师认为，Windows 8将阻止或扭转这一趋势，但目前还没有实现，前景也不乐观。 硬件与软件整合 与此同时，又出现了另一个重大趋势：苹果模式，即一家公司制造整个设备——硬件、操作系统、核心应用和在线生态系统——这种趋势将被其他公司所 采用。去年10月，微软发布了第一款自有品牌平板电脑Surface。本月晚些时候，微软还可能发布一个更强大的版本。如果微软今年推出自有品牌智能手 机，我也不会感到意外。 谷歌也在按照苹果的方向发展。谷歌目前有三款Nexus设备，一款智能机和两款平板电脑。当前这些产品由谷歌设计，但由合作伙伴制造。如今谷歌 拥有了自己的硬件公司摩托罗拉移动，我认为谷歌也将采取苹果模式，对产品进行深度整合。有消息称，摩托罗拉移动正在开发一些高级的新硬件设备，将与 Android更紧密地整合。 重新设想电视 三星和其他厂商已经让电视接入互联网，观看互联网视频，还可以运行一些应用，而无需任何特定的机顶盒设备。但这些还远远不够，他们的“智能电视”功能还没有成功吸引消费者。这可能在新的一年里要做的事。 人们最大期待在于苹果，预计苹果今年将推出传闻已久的电。其最大特色将是简化电视观看过程，将互联网内容与有线电视内容平滑整合。 包括我在内的许多人都认为，苹果2012年就会发布这款产品，但与媒体公司就版权内容谈判时遇到了阻力，致使该产品被延迟。此外，售价99美元 的Apple TV本来是一款小众产品，但目前已经开始流行。部分原因是苹果为其笔记本、平板电脑和手机上部署了AirPlay功能，可以通过 Apple TV将视频音频和视频无线传送到电视上。 更便宜的智能机与套餐 在发达国家，智能手机已经随处可见，但大多数仍然很贵。在与运营商签署两年合约而获得补贴后，还要200美元左右。此外，每月的服务费用也在100美元左右。 当前，已经有一些款式较老、配置较低或不受欢迎的智能手机，如果与运营商签署合约，售价仅99美元、49美元，甚至是免费使用。但2013年，我们将看到质量更好的低价智能手机，有的基于Android系统，有的采用微软的Windwos Phone平台。 此外，一些公司还会推出极其低廉的月套餐计划。如Republic Wireless，提供不限量的语音、短信与数据服务，每月费用仅为19美元。Republic Wireless提供的语音服务主要通过WiFi网络，而不是运营商网络。 高保真数字音乐播放器 当前针对iPod和智能手机等移动设备的音乐大多为压缩文件，而发烧友和艺术家们从来都不喜欢这种压缩格式的音乐。因为这些文件针对下载进行了优化，体较小，便于下载，但音质却大打折扣。 但2013年，预计会有一种新型便携式音乐播放器问世，可以处理高质量的音乐。韩国电子公司iRiver就推出了一款700美元的播放器Astell Kern AK100，可播放高保真数字音乐。另一家公司Pono也在开发同样的产品。 除了价格昂贵，这种新型播放器所播放文件的体积较大，通常为标准数字音乐文件的10倍至20倍。这意味着在同等存储空间内，所存储的音乐文件数量将减少。 健身与健康终端 2012年，Nike+FuelBand和Jawbone等传感器式腕带走进人们的生活，用来衡量人们每天走了多少路、睡眠质量如何等等。我认 为，这种趋势在2013年还将继续，而传感器的形式会有所改进，功能也将更强大。例如配备了传感器的手表Basis，可以测量心率。所有这些设备都会与移 动应用或Web应用相整合，跟踪用户状况并提供建议。 互联网控制一切 2013年人们将看到的另一个趋势是，应用与设备的进一步整合，允许人们无线控制许多日常操作，如灯泡和家用电器等。2013年，我们将看到更多这样的智能设备。 上述预测只是2013年我们可能看到的消费科技发展趋势的一部分。其他一些趋势还包括云存储等。可以确定的是：今年一定会出现一些令人意外的趋势，又是我们没有预测到的。 原文链接：http://allthingsd.com/20130101/2013-talk-gets-cheaper-tv-gets-smarter/ 2013: Talk Gets Cheaper, TV Gets Smarter Personal technology never stops changing. Some new products and services are game changers, like Apple’s iPhone and iPad. Others are clever twists or refinements, like each successive version of Google’s Android platform, which gets better and better. Others are bold gambles, like Microsoft’s new Windows 8, which hopes to combine both a tablet experience and a traditional PC environment in one operating system. But there’s always something new, from large companies and small ones. So here are a few things consumers will likely see in technology in 2013. Many of these began to take shape in the past year, but will be stronger trends in the new year. Tablets vs. PCs While the iPad line, including the new Mini, continues to dominate the tablet market, Android-based tablets are finally gaining traction. But the bigger story is that tablets will continue to erode the role of laptop PCs. Consumers are using tablets for more and more tasks formerly performed by laptops. Traditional computers aren’t going away—they still do certain tasks, like heavy content creation, better than tablets. But consumers seem, at the very least, to be replacing their laptops less often and spending discretionary funds on tablets, which are gradually replacing another device: the dedicated e-reader. Many analysts had expected Windows 8 to halt or reverse this trend, and it may yet do so. But early indications aren’t encouraging for that outcome. Integrating Hardware and Software Meanwhile, another big trend is emerging: Apple’s model of one company making the entire device—hardware, operating system, core apps and an online ecosystem—is beginning to take hold elsewhere. In October, Microsoft unveiled its first computer, the Surface tablet. The company will follow it up as soon as this month with a second, more powerful version. I wouldn’t be surprised if Microsoft also made its own smartphone this year. Google is also moving in Apple’s direction. It now sells three devices—a smartphone and two tablets—under its Nexus brand. These products are built by partner companies, but designed by Google. Now that Google owns its own hardware company, Motorola Mobility, I expect it to get deeper into the integrated model. Motorola, freshly stocked with former Google executives, is reported to be building advanced new hardware devices tightly integrated with Android. What to Watch: In addition to its Apple TV interface, left, Apple is expected to try to further simplify television viewing. Rethinking Television Samsung and others already make TVs that can connect to the Internet, and stream Internet video and run tablet-type apps, without any special set-top box. But I find them clumsy, and their “smart TV” functions haven’t taken off with consumers yet. This may be the year they do. The biggest expectation is that Apple, which has been working hard on the problem, will finally unveil its long-rumored TV this year, with the goal of greatly simplifying the TV and smoothly melding Internet and cable content. Many, including me, thought it might appear in 2012, but the company reportedly ran into difficulties in negotiating with media companies for content rights. Meanwhile, Apple’s tiny, $99 Apple TV box, while still a relatively small seller, is gaining popularity, partly because the company has built into its laptops, tablets and phones a feature called AirPlay which can use an Apple TV box to wirelessly stream audio and video to a TV. Republic Wireless offers the Defy XT with a $19 unlimited plan. Cheaper Smartphones and Plans Smartphones are everywhere in the developed world, but most are still expensive—around $200 after a carrier subsidy that requires a two-year contract. And the monthly service fees can easily approach or exceed $100, especially if you use a lot of data, which is the very essence of a smartphone’s purpose. There are already some smartphones, usually older, less capable or less popular models, available for $99 or $49 or even free with a contract. But I expect to see better smartphones at lower prices in 2013, especially those running the dominant Android platform, and the handsome, but low-selling Windows Phone platform from Microsoft. In addition, some companies are beginning to offer really cheap monthly plans. One example: Republic Wireless, which offers unlimited voice, text and data for $19 a month on a small, Android phone, the Motorola Defy XT, using older software that has been modified to make voice calls where possible over Wi-Fi instead of a costlier carrier network. The $700 Astell Kern AK100 plays much higher fidelity digital music. Costlier, Better Music Players Audiophiles and recording artists have never much liked the compressed music files that now fill every iPod and smartphone. They complain that the richness of the original recording is lost because the song files are optimized for minimum space and download time, and because they are often made from CDs, not from the master studio tapes. So in 2013, there will be a push to sell a new kind of portable music player that can handle high quality music. The Korean electronics company, iRiver, has introduced the Astell Kern AK100, a $700 player that can play much higher fidelity digital music. The legendary rocker Neil Young is backing a second venture, Pono, which is doing something similar. In addition to the price, there’s another downside: The files can be 10 to 20 times as large as standard digital songs, so many fewer tracks fit in a given amount of memory. The Basis, part of the crop of new wristband monitors, measures resting heart rate. Fitness and Health Monitors In 2012, sensor-packed wristbands like the Nike+ FuelBand and the Jawbone Up were introduced to measure how many steps people take in a day, how well they sleep, and other indicators of health and fitness. I expect this trend to continue in 2013, in different forms and with more sophisticated sensors. One new product, the Basis, is a watch with sensors on the back that measures resting heart rate. All of these devices tie into mobile apps or Web-based dashboards to track progress and offer advice. Internet-Controlled Everything Another trend I expect to see in 2013 is an expansion of apps and devices that let people wirelessly control many everyday objects, from light bulbs to appliances, using low-powered networks and smartphones or tablets. And we’ll likely see more smart devices with such intelligence built in, similar to the Nest intelligent thermostat, which is Wi-Fi powered. These are just a few of the trends likely to mark the consumer tech landscape in 2013. Others will also be prominent, most notably the continued reliance on the cloud, or remote servers, to store content and work collaboratively. One thing is sure: There are certain to be developments that will surprise us all, and can’t be forecast here.
标签: 2013年
