The Economic Process, Its Principles and Problems 【 Raymond T. Bye, William W. Hewett 著 《 经济进程、及其原则和问题 》】 【黄安年个人藏书书目（美国问题英文部分编号 090 ）】 黄安年辑 黄安年的博客 /2019 年 1 月 28 日 发布（第 20749 篇） 自2019年起，笔者将通过博客陆续发布个人收藏的全部图书书目，目前先发布美国问题英文书目，每本单独编号，不分出版时间先后与图书类别。 这里发布的是 Raymond T. Bye, William W. Hewett 著 The Economic Process, Its Principles and Problems( 《 经济进程、及其原则和问题 》)Appleton-Century ,1952年版,1050页。ISBN 0-13-914507-9 照片 10 张拍自该书， 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 ，
Chen, Ping. “Empirical and Theoretical Evidence of Economic Chaos,” System Dynamics Review, Vol. 4, No. 1-2, 81-108 (1988). Also, Chapter 4, in Chen 2010. Thank Hai Bolin for his comment on low dimension of economic chaos.
China faces its worst economic crisis: water (July 31, 2013) Water woes ranging from polluted drinking water to contaminated groundwater reserves and toxic rivers, to crossborder water disputes with neighbours over transboundary river flows, are moving China towards a catastrophe with “profound implications.” In testimony to the U.S. Senate last week, the Council on Foreign Relations’ Asia director Elizabeth Economy names industry as the key culprit. The Wall Street Journal’s MarketWatch.com reports. By Michael Kitchen for The Tell, MarketWatch.com , published on July 31, 2013 China has a serious problem, bigger than the slowdown in manufacturing growth or the housing-price bubble. It's water, and it's a catastrophe that could affect the rest of Asia and the larger world. In testimony to the U.S. Senate last week, the Council on Foreign Relations’ Asia director Elizabeth Economy said China is facing a water crisis with “profound implications” if the government doesn’t get a grip on it over the next few years. According to China's own water resources officials, more than 400 Chinese cities lacked enough water last year, with 110 of those facing serious scarcity. The key culprit is industry, which Economy said uses 4 to 10 times more water per unit of GDP than similar economies and is polluting the nation's existing water resources at an alarming rate. She cited a February 2013 report by the Geological Survey of China saying a full 90% of the country's groundwater was polluted, while the Ministry of Environmental Protection said the water from about 25% of China's major river systems was so filthy that it couldn't be even used for industry or agriculture. Read the full article on the publisher’s website here .
2012年12月14日，老美把PM2.5的标准值降低到12微克每立方米（年均值），并说由此带来的健康收益为40-90多亿美元（原来的值好像是15）。 原文： On December 14, 2012, EPA updated the national air quality standards for PM 2.5 by revising the annual standard to 12 micrograms per cubic meter (ug/m3). Updated last in 1997, the revised annual standard will have major economic benefits with comparatively low costs. EPA estimates health benefits of the revised standard would range from $4 billion to over $9 billion per year. 原文链接： http://yosemite.epa.gov/opa/admpress.nsf/bd4379a92ceceeac8525735900400c27/e4cef67086019f9a85257af60059cdbc!OpenDocument PM2.5也称为苏特（SOOT），意为烟灰、煤烟，就是指小于等于2.5微米的颗粒。苏特是衡量空气污染的重要指标。 苏特能够进入肺的深处，会带来一系列严重的健康危害。这包括死的早、心脏病、中风、急性支气管炎、儿童哮喘加重等。 翻译可能不当，请参照原文： Soot, also known as fine particle pollution (PM 2.5 ), can penetrate deep into the lungs and has been linked to a wide range of serious health effects, including premature death, heart attacks, and strokes, as well as acute bronchitis and aggravated asthma among children. 曹相生 2013,1.18
http://scienceblog.com/ In financial ecosystems, big banks trample economic habitats, spread fiscal disease Exploring the Financial Costs of Sadness Bug repellent for supercomputers proves effective Life imitates satire Changing Climate, Not Tourism, Seems to Be Driving Decline in Chinstrap-Penguin Populations Could poor sleep contribute to symptoms of schizophrenia? Nanometer scale diamond tips improve nano manufacturing Fast food menu calories still waaay high Injectable sponge delivers drugs, cells, and structure Fantasy-Reality Confusion a Primary Cause of Childhood Nighttime Fears Being Neurotic, and Conscientious, a Good Combo for Health Increasing Efficiency of Wireless Networks The Aftermath of Calculator Use in College Classrooms The leggiest animal on Earth lives in the outskirts of Silicon Valley ‘Homeless’ planet foud wandering through space
http://econ.williams.edu/students/online-resources Research Data This page provides linksto helpstudents and facultyconduct economic research and find economic research papersand data. Click on a topic immediately below to go to the section of this page with information on that topic. General | Findingeconomic research | Stata | Data directories | U.S. national and state economic data | Census data | U.S. household data sets | Government tax and spending data | Internationalanddeveloping countries | Health environment | Housing prices | Crime and the law | Business and finance | Economic history | Education General guide to economics Internet resources Resources for the Economist on the Internet – Bill Goffe’s guidelisting many resources on the Internet of interest to academic and practicing economists, and to those interested in economics. Finding economicsresearch papers and journal articles Econlit . The best search engine for finding scholarly economics literature. Williams College Library Economics Subject Guide .Guide to resources to help youconduct researchin economics, assembled by Walter Komorowski , library liason for economics. Williams College Library Electronic Journals -Link to theCollege’s extensive collection of electronic journals. EconPapers – Extensive archive of economics working papers online. National Bureau of Economic Research — Hosts the leading working paper series in economics. Here are some places to find literature reviews and overviews of the economics research on particular topics (these are often a good place to start when conducting research): Journal of Economic Literature — A good source for survey and review articles on economic topics. Journal of Economic Perspectives — “…aims to publish articles that will serve several goals: to synthesize and integrate lessons learned from active lines of economic research; to provide economic analysis of public policy issues; to encourage cross-fertilization of ideas among the fields of thinking; to offer readers an accessible source for state-of-the-art economic thinking; to suggest directions for future research; to provide insights and readings for classroom use…” Annual Review of Economics — “Each year, Annual Reviews critically reviews the most significant primary research literature to guide you to the principal contributions of the field and help you keep up to date in your area of research.” Handbooks in Economics series. There are handbooks of economics in various different fields of economics, produced by publishers such as North-Holland and Edward Elgar. These provide overviews of economic research in particular fields and are periodically updated with new volumes. Try doing a keyword search in Francis for “handbook” “economics” and the general area of economics you are interested in (e.g., “development”). Stata Alex Tabarrok’s guide to Stata Resources . (Many of the links below are taken from this) Resources to Help you Learn and Use Stata, by UCLA Academic Techonology Services . UCLA’s “Stata Starter Kit” . Good place for beginners to start. German Rodriguez’s free Stata Tutorial . A good place to start for the basics. University of North Carolina Stata Tutorial . “Two Page Stata” — a two page “cheat sheet” of essential Stata commands. Proceedings of the Stata Users Group meetings . Austin Nichols’ presentation on “Causal inference with observational data: Regression Discontinuity and related methods in Stata.” Colin Cameron’s presentation on “”Panel data methods for microeconometrics using Stata” Stata’s visual overview for creating graphs . London School of Economics “Introduction to Stata” course. Detailed class notes by Alexander C. Lembcke. London School of Economics “Advanced Stata” course . Detailed class notes by Alexander C. Lembcke. Books about Stata . Data Analysis Using Stata, 2nd Edition by Ulrich Kohler and Frauke Kreuter. Google books excerpt available here . Excellent advice from economists Matthew Gentzkow and Jesse Shapiro on how to write computer code in a language such as Stata is available here . This is what they give to their research assistants to teach them good coding practices. Every economics student should learn how to do this. Modern economic research is mostly about writing computer code. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) software Getting Started with GIS (for ArcGIS 10) free online tutorial. You will need to create a Global Account on the ESRI site but then will be able to take any of their free courses. After completing this course, if there are any paid online courses you would like (only the ESRI courses), Sharron Macklin in OIT can grant you authorization to take the course for free as it is part of the Williams license. Arc GIS software is available on all Williams lab computers. Melissa Dell’s notes on GIS for applied economists . Williams students interested in GIS software (which can be very useful in economics research) should consider taking GEOS 214, Geographical Information Systems, usually offered spring semester (link to Williams course catalog here ). Directories to help you find economic data WebEc Guide to Economics Data NBER data page . “Resources for Economists on the Internet” Data Page . Williams College library page on statistical data sources . EcEdWeb Web Site on Economic Data . The Impoverished Social Scientist’s Guide to Data Resources . Statistical data bases available directly through the Williams College library web site . Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR) . Williams College has a subscription to ICPSR, which gives us access to a very large number of important data sets through the ICPSR web site. You will need to register to use the data there, but it is free. ICPSR has both a large collection of raw data sets useful for economic research, as well as a “Publication Related Archive” that has hundreds of data sets used in published articles that could be used for a replication exercise. The Dataverse Network .Aweb projectthat provides access to a large number of data sets that have been used in academic research articles, including many economics-related data sets. Harvard IQSS Dataverse Network . Steven Lehrer’s “Links for Economists.” Includes links a wide variety of sources of data and research-related resources. Data and Story Library – Online library of datafiles and stories that illustrate the use of basic statistics methods with real-world examples. The National Tax Association’s guide to U.S. economics-related data sources (not limited to taxes). U.S. national and state economic data Bureau of Economic Analysis . Bureau of Labor Statistics . Economic Report of the President (Includes extensive statistical tables). St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank “FRED” National Economic Statistics Database . Federal Reserve Board of Governors Data Page Census data IPUMS-USA . The IPUMS web site makes it easy to download user-friendly extracts of U.S. Census Bureau micro-level data (that is, data on families, households, and individuals). This web site provides access to thePublic Use Microdata Series (PUMS), which consists of micro-level data from the decennial U.S. census. For the most recent few decennial censuses, there is a PUMS data set available through this web site which has a 5% sample of the entire U.S. population.For earlier censuses, there is a 1% sample of the U.S. population. Access to the data is free, but you will need to submit an online application describing your project, and then will have to wait a few days for approval, before you can start downloading data (this is true of all the IPUMS sites). IPUMS-CPS . IPUMS-CPS makes available data from the Current Population Survey, an annual survey of tens of thousands of U.S. households conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. Data sets are available for every year between 1962 and 2005. The IPUMS web site makes it easy to download extracts of the data. IPUMS-International . Provides user-friendly access to census data from many countries around the world. Geolytics . Geolytics provides data from the full U.S. decennial census broken down by geographic area (as small as a census tract). The link above describes the Geolytics product but does not provide access to the data. We do have access to the data in the Williams College library. Talk to Walter Komorowski in the library for more information. The American Community Survey . An annual survey of U.S. households, similar to the decennial census, with a very large sample size (about 1.2million households per year). Also available in a more user-friendly format through the IPUMS-USA link above. Terra Populus . Terra Populus integrates the world’s population and environmental data, including: population censuses and surveys; land cover information from remote sensing; climate records from weather stations; land use records from statistical agencies. U.S. household data sets commonly used by economists Panel Study of Income Dynamics . The Health and Retirement Study . The Survey on Income and Program Participation . The Survey of Consumer Finances . Consumer Expenditure Survey . Consumer Expenditure Survey (more user-friendly files available through NBER) . National Longitudinal Surveys Data on taxation, government spending, and / or income inequality Internet TAXSIM . An online software program that allows you to upload a data set to the NBER server, which then calculates income tax rates for the households in your data, and returns another data set to you with the tax rates. It can calculate federal income tax rates for years between 1960 and 2013, and state tax rates for years between 1977 and 2008. World Tax Database . Data on tax rates and tax revenues for different types of taxes for the U.S., U.S. states, and various countries around the world for a large number of years. State Local Finance Data Query System . Sponsored by Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. State and local data on government expenditure and tax revenue for 1977-2004. Internal Revenue Service Tax Statistics . Emmanuel Saez’s web site . Berkeley economics professor, makes numerous interesting data sets related to taxation and income inequality publicly available. The Top Incomes Database . A data base of long-term historical data on the shares of national incomes going to the top of the income distribution in each of a large number of different countries, derived from income tax return data. Assembled by Facundo Alvaredo, Tony Atkinson, Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez. Daniel Waldstrom’s data page . Includes long-run historical cross-country data on top income shares and marginal income tax rates, among other things. Cara McDaniel’s tax data . Data on average tax rates in various OECD countries for a large number of years. OECD iLibrary . Extensive statistics on OECD nations. Euromod . Tax and government benefit simulator for European countries. Fiscalreform.net Collecting Taxes page . A US-AID site with extensive data on taxation in a large number of countries around the world. Worldwide-tax.com . Data on tax rates from countries around the world. Peter Lindert’s data page . Extensive collection of historical data from a large number of countries. World Bank Doing Business Indicators . Includes data on taxation and regulation for a large number of countries. International data and data on developing countries Developmentdata.org . Provides “easy access to free, reliable developing country data. The data linked to through developmentdata.org are provided by reputable international organisations and research institutions and data documentation is available for all the data.” Macro Data 4 Stata . From the web site description: “Importing publicly available datasets into statistical software is often tedious and time consuming: the original dataset needs to be converted from its original format; longitudinal datasets need to be reorganized in a form suitable for analyzing panel data; and datasets from different sources need to be carefully merged. This last step is particularly time consuming because country codes and names tend to vary across datasets. Macro Data 4 STATA addresses these issues by homogenizing several commonly used macroeconomic datasets and importing them into STATA.” DEVECONDATA . Datasets for Development Economists. Michael Kremer’s guide to developing country data sets . Michael Kremer, a leading development economist, provides a guide to developing country data, with many links, here. Measure DHS — Demographic and Health Surveys for Developing Countries . This is ths source of data used in Fortson’s paper on AIDS and education; similar surveys are available for many countries and many years through this web site. Bureau for Research and Economic Analysis of Development, Harvard University . Click on the “Data” link on their web page for links to a vast array of data sets from developing countries. International Food Policy Research Institue data page . IFPRI offers access to and links numerous publicly available, free, micro-level data sets from developing countries, including for example data on the Progresa / Opportunidades program in Mexico. World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study web page . Household data sets from a large number of different developing countries. Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (JPAL) . Economists who do randomized evaluation research in developing countries. Research papers are posted on their web site; they have also posted data sets for select papers. JPAL data. IPUMS-International . User-friendly access to micro-level census data from a large number of countries around the world. OECD iLibrary . Extensive statistics on OECD nations. World Bank WITS data base . Includes data on trade between each country in the world, as well as tariffs and other information. World Bank data page . Penn World Tables . World Development Indicators (note: this is now also available through “Macro Data 4 Stata” above). Center for International Development at Harvard University — Research Datasets Page . This site makes available numerous mostly cross-country data sets that have been used to study a variety of questions, especially those related to economic growth and development. The World Values Survey . “A place to learn more about values and cultural changes in societies all over the world.” Education Policy and Data Center . “The EPDC has the world’s largest international education database with over 3.8 millon data points from 200 countries. The data comes from national and international websites including household survey datasets as well as studies and reports.” EdStats . “EdStats collects worldwide data on education from national statistical reports, statistical annexes of new publications, and other data sources.” Peter Lindert’s data page . Extensive collection of historical data from a large number of countries. World Bank Doing Business Indicators . Includes data on taxation and regulation for a large number of countries. International Education Statistics . Compiled by Friedrich Huebler. Terra Populus . Terra Populus integrates the world’s population and environmental data, including: population censuses and surveys; land cover information from remote sensing; climate records from weather stations; land use records from statistical agencies. Data on health and / or the environment CDC Wonder . This web site provides access to Centers for Disease Control data on deaths, births, and disease in the U.S. The data is available broken down by geographical location and by disease, cause of death, etc., for a large number of years. U.S. Census Bureau HIV/AIDS Surveillance Data Base . Provides access to data on HIV infection rates for many countries around the world. Also provides links to many other sources of data on HIV and AIDS. EPA air pollution data . California air pollution data . California data on births . World Bank data on air pollutionand water pollution inChina . Michael Greenstone’s web site . A leading environmental economist at MIT. Makes numerous data sources available on his web site. Michael Greenstone’s data on hazardous waste, superfund cleanup, and house prices . Worldwide data on temperature and precipitation . Global Historical Climatology Network data base . “Historical temperature, precipitation, and pressure data for thousands of land stations worldwide.” IRI/LDEO Climate Data Library . “Contains over 300 datasets from a variety of earth science disciplines and climate-related topics.” Data on endangered species . Links to NatureServe, which is the best source of data on the locations of endangered species habitats in the U.S. Gallup Healthways Well-Being Index . Measures of health and well-being (e.g., obesity rates) across metropolitan areas in the U.S. Terra Populus . Terra Populus integrates the world’s population and environmental data, including: population censuses and surveys; land cover information from remote sensing; climate records from weather stations; land use records from statistical agencies. Housing price data Geolytics . Geolytics provides data from the full U.S. decennial censuses of 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000, broken down by geographic area (as small as a census tract). A nice feature of the Geolytics data is that they have standardized the definitions of census tracts across years, so it is possible to make consistent comparisons of the same places over time (for some of the earlier censuses, this is only available for urban census tracts). Geolytics includes data on house prices, as well as many other variables. The link above describes the Geolytics product but does not provide access to the data. We do have access to the data in the Williams College library (see Francis). Talk to Walter Komorowski in the library for more information. American Housing Survey . Data on house prices and house characteristics for a large sample of houses. Data is collected for each of47 selected metropolitan areas approximately once every six years. Zillow . Provides data on prices of recent home sales as well as estimates of current market values of individual homes across the United States. FHFA housing price indices . Price index for constant-quality homes, broken down by geographical region in the U.S., available going back to 1976. Robert Shiller’s online data page . Includes link to the Case-Shiller housing price index. Data on crime and the law U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics . National Archive of Criminal Justice Data Justin Wolfer’s research data page . Includes freely available data used in various studies on the effects of the death penalty, among other things. Empirical Legal Studies blog . A Blog run by law professors involved in empirical reserearch on legal issues. Check out the lower right hand side of the blog frame, which has links to lots of data resources. Business and finance data EDGAR – Database of corporate financial statements and related information maintained by the SEC. StockMaster – Provides fast delayed stock and mutual funds quotes and historical charts. Robert Shiller’s online data page .Includes long-run housing price and stock market index data. Data Library of Dartmouth Business Professor Ken French . Lots of useful historical data on the stock market. Economic history Economic History Services – Central source of information for economic historians containing files of data, list archives, book reviews, etc. Peter Lindert’s data page . Extensive collection of historical data from a large number of countries. Education International Education Statistics . Compiled by Friedrich Huebler. National Center on Education Statistics . “The primary federal entity for collecting and analyzing data related to education.” California Education Data Partnership Homepage . “Fiscal, Demographic, and Performance Data on California’s K-12 Schools.” New Jersey Department of Education Data . New York City Charter School Data . See also here . New York State Testing and Accountability Reporting Tool . Education Policy and Data Center . “The EPDC has the world’s largest international education database with over 3.8 millon data points from 200 countries. The data comes from national and international websites including household survey datasets as well as studies and reports.” EdStats . “EdStats collects worldwide data on education from national statistical reports, statistical annexes of new publications, and other data sources.”
China Closes Window on Economic Debate, Protecting Dominance of State Aly Song/Reuters Some economists in China are pushing for a shift to a more consumer-driven economy. By IAN JOHNSON Published: June 16, 2012 Facebook Twitter Google+ Email Share Print Single Page Reprints BEIJING — As China heads toward a once-a-decade change of its top leadership, its vaunted embrace a generation ago of markets and economic openness — which catapulted the country from isolated poverty to its place as a global export powerhouse — is also at a turning point. Connect With Us on Twitter Follow @nytimesworld for international breaking news and headlines. Twitter List: Reporters and Editors After nearly a decade of President Hu Jintao ’s focus on strengthening the state, a broad consensus of Chinese economists says the country is overdue for another big push to encourage private enterprise and to foster a shift toward a more consumer-driven economy. The challenge, they say, is turning back China’s domineering state sector. But that seems increasingly unlikely. Publicly controlled enterprises have become increasingly lucrative, generating wealth and privileges for hundreds of thousands of Communist Party members and their families. And in a clear sign of its position, the government has moved to limit public debate on economic policy, shutting out voices for change. While political reform has always been a taboo topic in China, in economics, from the late 1970s to the early 2000s, almost anything went, with powerful voices backing strong measures that challenged the status quo. But now, despite the rise of social media, fewer prominent voices within China are able to make the case for a systemic overhaul that would prepare the nation for long-term prosperity on sturdier foundations. “It’s not a good time to speak out for reforms, but it’s a good time to speak out against them,” said Li Shuguang, a professor at the China University of Politics and Law. “The government doesn’t encourage debate.” Few people illustrate this conundrum better than Zhang Weiying, a 53-year-old Peking University professor who is probably the closest China has to an economic dissident. A cause célèbre in Chinese economics circles, Mr. Zhang was fired a year and a half ago from his post as dean of the university’s Guanghua School of Management . Since then, he has been on an extended sabbatical, traveling widely and giving speeches on the country’s brewing economic troubles, among them slowing domestic growth and a collapse of financing for private enterprise. The hitch is that much of his work is deliberately hard to access or is consigned to secondary publications. Last year, he gave an hourlong video interview to the Web site Sina . Although the site belongs to a publicly traded company listed on Nasdaq, Sina works closely with the Chinese government. After a week on the site, the interview was deleted. A Sina spokesman, who refused to give his name, said the video was removed as part of regular site maintenance. Similar interviews from more mainstream experts, however, are still available. Mr. Zhang’s address this year to the Yabuli China Entrepreneurs Forum seemed to have encountered a similar fate. The speech, which criticized the lack of market-oriented changes, cannot be found on most major Chinese newspaper sites, a sign of government disapproval of his views. Video of the speech is available only on overseas Web sites that are blocked in China. “He can’t appear in the big newspapers because he says things that you can’t say,” a senior editor at a major party-run newspaper said. “You can’t challenge the system like that.” A slightly round, bespectacled man with a shock of white hair, Mr. Zhang does not look like a radical. But his pronouncements are acerbic, reflecting his support for neoclassical economics in the mold of Milton Friedman , the Nobel Prize -winning free-market advocate who taught at the University of Chicago for decades. “Before 2003, the idea of reform was dominant,” Mr. Zhang said in an interview last month. “Now it’s much harder to make that case.” Challenging the system, Mr. Zhang contends, has been the key to China’s economic success. Today, he says, that would mean reducing the party’s control over important sectors of the economy. Over the past decade, state companies have maintained and expanded control over industries like automobiles, aviation, chemicals, energy, information technology, machinery, metals, steel and telecommunications. Mainstream criticism of this trend, however, is limited. A propaganda department directive this year explicitly banned the term “monopoly” to describe state-owned enterprises. Journalists say they regularly have articles kept from publication if they discuss the deadening effect of state control over so many industries. This contrasts with the first two decades of China’s economic opening, when the overall trend was toward relaxing state control, and pro-market economists were household names. 1 2 Next Page This article has been revised to reflect the following correction: Correction: June 17, 2012 An earlier version of this article incorrectly referred to the Propaganda Ministry of the Communist Party. While there is a propaganda department under the Communist Party Central Committee, there is no government ministry by that name. A version of this article appeared in print on June 17, 2012, on page A 6 of the New York edition with the headline: China Closes Window on Economic Debate, Protecting Dominance of State. (Page 2 of 2) Mr. Zhang was a big part of this early effort to move away from communist-style state planning. Working for the influential State Commission for Reforming the Economic System, he was most famous — as a 24-year-old — for writing a paper that led to the replacement of state-designated prices with market prices, one of the landmarks of the 1980s reforms. Connect With Us on Twitter Follow @nytimesworld for international breaking news and headlines. Twitter List: Reporters and Editors After the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, the reform commission was downgraded, and market-oriented economists went on the defensive. Mr. Zhang went to Oxford to earn a Ph.D. with the Nobel Prize-winning economist James A. Mirrlees , but he returned to China just after Deng Xiaoping reignited economic reforms by taking on the Communist Party’s powerful left wing. In 1994, Mr. Zhang co-founded the influential China Center for Economic Research at Peking University. In 1997, he moved to the university’s Guanghua management school and two years later was named dean. His rise tracked a second era of economic liberalization. Mr. Deng brought in reformers like the now-retired President Jiang Zemin and Prime Minister Zhu Rongji to scale back state control, moves that eventually paid off with China joining the World Trade Organization in 2002. But when they retired, replaced by Mr. Hu and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, the atmosphere changed. Economic modernization was seen as causing social unrest, which rose steadily during the 2000s. In response, the country put in place a “stability maintenance” apparatus to tamp down criticism. “Hu Jintao is more a follower of Mao Zedong,” said Mao Yushi, 83, a pro-reform economist who has been vilified during the past decade. “He doesn’t encourage too much discussion.” Neither did Mr. Zhang’s university. “They began to speak of the need for a harmonious society,” Mr. Zhang said, referring to the watchword of the era of Mr. Hu and Mr. Wen. “Gradually people said you shouldn’t reform so much because you’re just causing trouble.” Stymied in pursuing a more meritocratic approach at the university, Mr. Zhang began criticizing the government even more forcefully. Even though the economy was still roaring ahead, he began calling the 2000s a “lost decade.” In late 2010, Mr. Zhang was relieved of his position and put on a two-year sabbatical. University officials declined to comment on his removal, but Chinese news media said at the time that it was because of his “radical” views. His fate, he says, paralleled a growing belief within China’s leadership that it has little more to learn from the West, especially after the global financial crisis of 2008 and China’s success in riding it out. “We’re suddenly so important,” he says, with more than a touch of sarcasm in his voice. “Look at America. It has problems. We don’t have problems.” Mr. Zhang acknowledges that he takes a purist’s approach to economic policy. Professor Li, at the China University of Politics and Law, agrees: “No politician could do as he says, but it’s important to have people speaking like that.” Despite his setbacks, Mr. Zhang is convinced that his views will return to favor. The recent slowing of China’s economy shows that the country’s enormous stimulus package of 2008-9 was just a stopgap, he says. The expected incoming administration of Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang may not have articulated a way forward, but he says he believes the pendulum will inevitably swing back. “When we had reform, people thought we had problems,” he said. “But now that we don’t have it, they see we need it.” Previous Page 1 2 This article has been revised to reflect the following correction: Correction: June 17, 2012 An earlier version of this article incorrectly referred to the Propaganda Ministry of the Communist Party. While there is a propaganda department under the Communist Party Central Committee, there is no government ministry by that name. A version of this article appeared in print on June 17, 2012, on page A 6 of the New York edition with the headline: China Closes Window on Economic Debate, Protecting Dominance of State.
今天下午1：00是新学期CREDIT的第一次Seminar，我以为是CEDEX，虽然与我的专业不是很相关，但想起导师建议哪怕专业不相近也可以积极参与，一方面学习表达presentation skill ，一方面学习方法的应用，这是不分专业的。感觉收获很大，上星期Applied Microeconometrics的instrumental variables方法应用恰好得到了体现。这篇文章主要是希望研究冲突（conflict)与经济发展（economic development)之间的关系。使用的是Rwanda的数据，与以往使用宏观数据从convergence角度出发的文献不同的是，作者利用了微观数据来研究。可惜没有找到原文，可能尚属于working paper阶段，没有正式发表。作者的robustness检验相当丰富，值得学习。 How does conflict affect economic performance. Micro evidence from Rwanda Pieter Serneels, University of East Anglia and Marijke Verpoorten, K.University Leuven Abstract: Important gaps remain in the understanding of the economic consequences of civil war. Focusing on the conflict in Rwanda in the early 90s, and using micro data to carry out econometric analysis, this paper finds that households and localities that experienced more intense conflict are behind in terms of consumption six years after the conflict, a finding that is robust to taking into account the endogeneity of violence. Significantly different returns to land and labour are observed between zones that experienced low and high intensity conflict which is consistent with on-going recovery. Distinguishing between civil war and genocide, the findings also provide evidence that these returns, and by implication the process of recovery, depend on the form of violence. 另外一点收获发现这个seminar一直都是提供午餐的，倒是便宜了我。大家边听workshop，边品尝食物倒也显得自然。忽然之间明白了为什么在英国午餐会显得比较随意，而且大多是冷盘，只有drinks是热的。一方面可以节省时间，另一方向冷食不会散发出香味，不会影响周围的人。这也是为什么在图书馆的silent zone，热食是被禁止带入的。
先是大年初三Econometrics Journal来信，信说 Dear Dr. xxxx:I am now able to report on your submission ECTJ MS#16xx-1 entitled:xxxxwhich you submitted for possible publication in The Econometrics Journal.Based on my own reading of your paper and the views of the referees, I have decided to give you an opportunity to revise your paper for possible publication in The Econometrics Journal. Overally speaking, the paper is concise and is pretty well written. However, I think a revision would be necessary for this paper to be suitable for publication in Econometrics Journal. I attach copies of my decision letter and referee reports below......... 这期刊应属经济学期刊中等偏下,去年10月投的,审了4个月.一共有三分匿名意见,看了下基本没有大的困难,都是要求我对一些地方进行更详细的说明. 然后过了几天spatial economic analysis又来信，该期刊是世界空间计量经济学会会刊, ssci, 2010 impact factor 0.944 去年8月投稿, 审了6个月 Dear Dr. xxx:Manuscript ID RSEA-2011-00xx entitled Estimation and specification testing for spatial autoregressive model with incompletely specified spatial weighting matrix which you submitted to Spatial Economic Analysis, has been reviewed. The comments of the referee(s) are included at the bottom of this letter. I liked your paper but really do think it needs some additional paragraphs explaining to the non-expert exactly what the model you are estimating is. In particular,......... At present you paper is quite abstract and it will be difficult for many of our diverse readers to understand why what you are suggesting is important. So while we have decided to publish the paper, but this decision is subject to suitable modification along the lines suggested. The referee(s) have also recommended publication, but also suggest some minor revisions to your manuscript. Therefore, I invite you to respond to both my and the referee(s)' comments and revise your manuscript. 应版主之邀,经验本写在24楼!为阅读方便,特转载在下 今天一起来发现版主夸克不但给了加经验加金钱还给了高亮，盛情之下，确实得写一些东西，感谢坛上兄弟姐妹的关注和支持．确实，相信每一个放眼看世界不闭门造车的国内科研人员都看的出，投稿国外期刊并力求发表已经是大势所趋．在发表了两篇经济研究后，督促自己开始发表ssci期刊，是一个自然不过的过程．其实我一直认为，发表论文是一个水到渠成的过程，固然其中有一些有用的经验和技巧，实际上最重要的仍然取决于你论文思路的高度和层次．换言之，假如我对你的研究领域足够熟悉，我即使没有看过你的论文，只要听你说完你想写一篇什么论文，你认为的创新在哪里，你的思路是什么，我就应该可以判断这是一篇可以发到什么层次期刊的论文．所以说谈写paper的经验，实际上最重要的就是谈如何生成一个好的idea，如何思维的过程．显然，这和个人的积累以及悟性和天赋密切相关．但是本文的最后，我会提一点套路． 先说说投稿的一般流程．准备好了manuscript(一般公式比较多的用latex准备，公式比较少的可以用word然后用pro adrobe acrobat转换成pdf)，选择与几个与该论文相关的期刊，然后从impact factor最高的投起．这是建立在时间充裕，不急着马上发表的基础上．如果你急着想快点发表，可以直接投和你论文水平相当但是略低一点的期刊，这样发表的可能更大．因为以我经验来说，那篇投到spatial economic analysis(SEA)的论文曾经投过Econometrics journal，但是连pre-screen都没有通过，被主编直接拒掉，理由是论文有创新，但是创新是marginal, 意思就是比较小的创新，类似于一个脑筋急转弯，于是主编直接推荐我投economics letters或与空间经济学有关的论文．事实上，我确实听从了主编的意见，转投了SEA．一般投稿有两种途径，一种是有投稿系统的，你只需要按照系统提示一步一步填写信息并最后upload pdf file，图表和appendix可以合并在一个single pdf file里，也可以分开upload.第二种投稿方式是直接将pdf论文寄到期刊的信箱或某个主编的信箱,比如econometric theory,该期刊要求你把稿件直接寄给peter phillps 但是除了论文本身,你还要有一个简短的cover letter,大致说一下你的联系地址,email, 和已发表论文(如果有)的经历. 两种投稿方式完成后的流程基本类似: 你会收到confirmation letter,表明你的稿件已进入一个secure tank,除了主编，无人可以看到．然后要等一周或１０天，会有主编看到你的投稿，然后会再有一封信发给你，告诉你开始有某个associate editor handle你的论文，之后就马上是pre screen，主编初审，主要是审核你论文的总体层次和风格，特别是内容是否适合本期刊．这层通过后就是漫长的匿名评审，一般是送给２－４个审稿人不等．然后就等吧，一般至少３个月，也有快的，就是那些金融学期刊，但是一般需要你交submission fee,而且resubmit一次交一次，(比如journal of financial economics要求你先交500 usd)，我也有篇被一个fiance期刊要求revise,但是这期刊审稿很快(因为收了钱)，２个月内必有回音．经济学期刊都很慢，至少３个月，５－６个月再正常不过，我还有篇已经审了８个月的，还没音讯，但是你不能催．听过不少老师的经验，主编最怕你催，一催必拒．只有耐心的等，所以通常你最好保证始终有５篇论文在外面审． 等啊等，最后等来了decision letter和附件里的审稿意见． 不得不说，每当看到这样信件的名称(decision from xxx journal, 或者about your submission)，心里总是紧张和期盼的表现之一就是你一打开信的内容，总是快速扫描信的内容，想立即看到这个decision是什么？是reject还是revise或者更好当看到reject时，一开始总是心里一凉，随后审稿人的意见通常被证明是恩赐，他们认真看懂你的论文，并给了合适的建议．至少你可以知道别人如何看待你的论文，你自以为写得很好的东西在别人眼里是什么样的．不过曾经发生过一种情况，我投给一个中等难度的期刊，一个审稿人只要求minor revise，另一个reject，这时主编的权力开始体现，不过很不幸，我那次是主编选择了reject．相信主编这个决定来自于三方面的考虑: 首先,他自己看完了论文,发现提negative意见的审稿人确实言之有理, 第二,宁枉勿纵,类似于控制假设检验中的第一类错误概率, 第三,取决于作者本身的学术声望和发表历史,基于这三点,主编的reject是完全可以理解的. 所以说，投稿的一个原则是，不要把全部希望寄托在一篇论文上，保持足够多的论文在外面审，有接受有拒绝，甜酸苦辣都尝遍，才是真正的人生． 我个人保持比较多的关注领域，从理论到实证都做，发表在经济研究的论文自然是实证，而投到国外的以理论为主，也有１－２篇实证．那篇被econometric journal要求修改的论文是关于微观计量经济模型半参数估计方面的，写的过程可以说是一气呵成，１周就写完，而被SEA conditionally accepted的论文则是关于空间计量经济学的，另外投到一些更好期刊的论文仍然在审稿中，最长一篇已经接近８个月，尚生死未卜． 最后是一些零散的体会(供确实想以学术为事业的兄弟姐妹参考) 1. 如果有条件，这条件既包括时间上，制度上和物质上的，尽量做点理论方面研究，至少是理论与实证兼做．接触理论可以让你的实证研究更有深度，而且这是一个不可逆的过程：做理论的以后可以做实证，习惯于做实证的日后很难再做理论． 2. 保持尽可能多的兴趣与关注点，特别是发了２－３篇论文后，应该试着让自己接触与本领域相关，但是不同的方向．因为很多好的思路实际上来源于不同小方向上的综合． 3.不断地阅读最新文献，有条件的，每学期或每一学年去学一门原来不太掌握，但是对本专业研究有帮助的课程 这实际上等价于体育运动员都要求练习体能与唱歌的每天需要练声一样，重要性自不待说， 4. 如果你认为一个思路一般，就不要落笔成文了，把那些还不错的idea写下来，准备一篇论文从写到润色修改，还是需要很多时间，写一篇一般的论文还不如多看几篇好论文 5. 如果要写一篇质量中等的论文，倒是有一个套路，但是仍取决于个人的悟性和智力，不过我个人屡用不爽： 看２－３篇本专业，但是不同小方向的top journal上的论文，但是要最近的，比如０５年后的，如果这２－３篇之间有共通点，哪怕只有１个，被你发现了，就一般会有一篇不错的论文产生．不过那通常只是extend别人的idea,所以无法发到最高的期刊，但是发一个impact factor 0.5以上的期刊应该不难． 本文来自: 人大经济论坛 学术道德监督 版，详细出处参考： http://bbs.pinggu.org/forum.php?mod=viewthreadtid=1332138page=3from^^uid=2986086
Foreword T he emergence of China as a global economic and political force is one of the most significant develop ments of our time. We must work together if we are to deal with the major challenges we face. Most pressing is the global economic crisis. We need China to play a full role, in partnership with us, if we are to restore confidence, growth and jobs and make real progress towards creating an open, flexible and robust global economy. I am convinced that Britain, Europe and the rest of the world can benefit from China’s rise – provided we get our response right. Co-operation with China is vital to reduce poverty, to resolve conflict, and to develop an effective framework to address climate change. To achieve all of this we need China and China needs the rest of the world. The UK has a lot to offer China. Our commitment to economic openness, our strength in science and innovation, our cutting edge design and our world-class universities all interest a country engaging with the rest of the international community like never before. We are building a strong and dynamic partnership which allows open dialogue. Our experience of creating a society based on accountability, rule of law and human rights is relevant to China as it goes through massive social change. I urge China to make progress in these areas. But China has much to offer Britain too. Over the next decade it is likely to present more opportunities for our businesses than any other country. It is, like the UK, a permanent member of the UN Security Council and can be our partner in tackling the issues that matter to us. If we are to make the most of our relationship with China, we need to understand China better, through our schools, universities, cultural institutions, our businesses and in Government. I am determined to do just that. The Rt Hon Gordon Brown MP The Prime Minister The logic of this framework is straightforward: over the next four years and beyond, strong relations with China can help create a better Britain, a better China and a better world. There are, of course, major economic benefits from our relationship. In an unstable economic climate, China’s role as a motor of the global economy becomes even more important. But the framework is about more than this. It sets out ambitious aims and outcomes for co-operation with China across the board. And it shows that China’s own sustainability and development are in our national interest as well. Two examples: China’s decisions on its energy, transport and building infrastructure over the next five years will establish the path of its carbon emissions over the next thirty. And China’s growing engagement with Africa has the potential to help African countries make real strides towards the Millennium Development Goals – China itself being one of the biggest global MDG success stories. Promotion of human rights is a fundamental part of this Framework, both because it is the right thing to do, and because we firmly believe that greater respect for human rights will enable China to manage peacefully the internal tensions it will inevitably encounter as it continues to develop. A policy of engagement and co-operation is integral to our promotion of human rights, and will remain an extremely high priority for the Government in the years ahead. We have never before set out publicly our policy on China in this way and this document is intended to begin a broader conversation. I look forward to your views. The Rt Hon David Miliband MP The Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs 原文见 http://www.fco.gov.uk/resources/en/pdf/4103709/5476465/5550005/uk-and-china
请进 http://scienceblog.com/ China’s economic stability depends on more education, Stanford economist says Researchers link patterns seen in spider silk, melodies Graphene plays starring role next-gen oil-well drilling fluids Nighttime images help track disease from the sky Scientists Build First Frozen Repository for the Great Barrier Reef Scientists Find Mechanism for Reprogramming Stem Cells Sound and vision work hand in hand Humility key to effective leadership Technique diagnoses non-periodic arrhythmias in a single heartbeat Football could contribute to strokes in teens Breakthrough in regulating fat metabolism Carving at the nanoscale New target found for aggressive cancer gene Study shows species can change Decisions, decisions: House-hunting honey bees work like complex brains Blood pressure medicines reduce stroke risk in people with prehypertension Helping your fellow rat: Rodents show empathy-driven behavior Backpacks, not the bombs inside, key to finding DNA Smoking strongly tied to squamous cell carcinoma in women The heart of the plant To keep nurses, improve their work environments Study shows more shrubbery in a warming world Women advised to avoid ZEN bust-enhancing supplements because of possible cancer risk Climate change driving tropical birds to higher elevations Extra weight loss from dietary fibres extracted from seaweed Changes in London taxi drivers’ brains driven by acquiring ‘the Knowledge’ Beating Superbugs with a High-Tech Cleanser New synthetic e. coli strains are the swiss army knife for biofuel production Depressed? Crossed wires in the brain Freshman women’s binge drinking tied to sexual assault risk New approach to management of overeating in children Time estimation ability predicts mathematical intelligence Unconventional approach to control HIV epidemics World’s first super predator had remarkable vision Those who stay together yawn together Lightweight GPS tags help researchers track animals of all sizes Unique genetic marker may improve detection of recurrent ovarian cancer Recycled thermal cash register receipts spread BPA to other paper products Extreme cold good for exercise recovery Study could lead to drug therapies for preventing atherosclerosis
The world is in danger of missing a golden opportunity for development and economic growth, a "demographic dividend", as the largest cohort of young people ever known see their most economically productive years wasted, a major UN population report warned. The potential economic benefits of having such a large global population of young people will go unfulfilled, as a generation suffers from a lack of education, and investment in infrastructure and job creation, the authors said. "When young people can claim their rights to health, education and decent working conditions, they become a powerful force for economic development and positive change. "This opportunity a demographic dividend is a fleeting moment that must be claimed quickly or lost," said the UN Population Fund (UNFPA), in its Global Population Report, published just days before the UN forecasted the world population will pass 7 billion. Of this 7 billion, 1.8 billion are aged between 10 and 24, and 90% of those live in the developing world. The report also reveals average life expectancy across the globe has risen by 20 years since the 1950s, from 48 to 68, as healthcare and nutrition have improved, while infant mortality has fallen fast, from 133 deaths per 1,000 births in the 1950s to 46 per 1,000 today. These successes area a cause to celebrate, the United Nations said. Fertility has also halved, from 6 births per woman to 2.5 over the same period, though there are stark regional differences – fertility is 1.6 births per woman in east Asia but 5 per woman in some parts of Africa. The report found a "vicious cycle" of extreme poverty, food insecurity and inequality leading to high death rates, that in turn encourages high birth rates. Only by investing in health and education for women and girls can countries break the cycle, as improving living conditions will allow parents to be more confident that their children will survive, and therefore have smaller families. Crucial to this will be allowing women and girls greater freedom and equality, in order to make their own choices about fertility. Hundreds of millions of women would prefer to have smaller families, but are unable to exercise this preference owing to a culture of repression. "Governments that are serious about eradicating poverty should also be serious about providing the services, supplies and information that women need to exercise their reproductive rights," said Babatunde Osotimehin, executive director of the UNFPA. On the empowerment of woman, he said at a press conference in London: "we have come a long way, but we are not there yet. There is no group that gives up power voluntarily. Men will not give up power to women voluntarily. Women have to fight. Women need to work together." One way of doing so highlighted in the report is to provide a good level of sex education to adolescents, and access to modern methods of contraception. The report said: "When women have equal rights and opportunities in their societies and when girls are educated and healthy, fertility rates fall ... the empowerment of women is not simply an end in itself, but also a step towards eradicating poverty." The difference between a future of high fertility rates and one where people are better able to choose is stark: if fertility rates in areas of high population growth come down towards the global average, the world will reach a global population of about 9.3bn in 2050, and about 10bn in 2100. But if fertility rates remain high in the most populous countries, the 2100 population will be more than 15bn. Osotimehin said countries must do more to help themselves: "It is unacceptable for countries to rely on donor money for reproductive health. The welfare of their people is their mandate." He said it would cost only $2bn to give access to family planning to the 250 million women who would like it but lack access. "The budget of the average developing country does not give enough money to issues of women and reproductive health. That has to change. If it does not change, it becomes unsustainable." But he also said donors were failing to make sufficient commitments. "Family planning has not been funded as it should have been. Donors need to provide resources ... there has been a reduction ." Osotimehin also said at the press conference that the opportunity had been missed to educate people on reproductive health and family planning, during a drive to prevent HIV infection, echoing comments he made to the Guardian earlier in the month. With high population growth, many scientists predict thatthe pressure on food and agricultural productivity and other natural resources may become intolerable, and conditions for the poorest people will deteriorate further, rather than improving. John Cleland, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said: "The escape from poverty and hunger is made more difficult by rapid population growth." Rapid growth will also exacerbate the impact of other global problems, such as climate change and other environmental impacts. Steven Sinding, a population expert at Columbia University, said: "The pace of growth poses enormous challenges for many of the poorest countries, which lack the resources not only to keep up with demand for infrastructure, basic health and education services and job opportunities for the rising number of young people, but also to adapt to climate change." Source: Fiona Harvey, Guardian,26 October 2011 来源： http://www.ippf.org/en/News/Intl+news/UN+World+will+miss+economic+benefit+of+1.8+billion+young+people.htm
标签: economic
