Smashingthe Moon Accelerating Global Warming Yang Xuexiang 1,2 Chen Dianyou 3 (1. College of Geo-exploration Science andTechnology , Jilin University, Changchun130026; 2. National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Science,Beijing100012; 3. College of Mathematics Science ) Abstract : The existence ofthe Lunar has its advantages as well as disadvantages. Many dynamic phenomenaare related to the lunar due to that the rate of masses of the earth and thelunar is maximum. That probably is the reason of the life existence on theearth. The tide resulted from the moon gravitational force is the root of somedisasters, however, it can also reduce the green house effect and regulate thetemperature, this is an obvious fact. It is proved that the moon is the thermostatof the earth. The greenhouse effect would be out of control without the moon,and the tendency for the global warming up would be critical, it is a risk tosmash the moon under the condition that the advantage and disadvantage is unclearto us. Keywords : Moon, tide, global warming, El Nino, life existence, greenhouse effect. At the beginning of the 21 st century, the world is facingtoo many natural and artificial disasters, man is also facing various decisionsdifficult to be made. The US economy has been kept increasing for 10 years, nowit is declining dramatically, moreover, it became even poorer since “911” terrorattack. The peace in middle east is being hold up. The conflict between Israeland Palestine lead to the disaster of humanitarianism ; The evidence for the earthwarming-up is more clear year by year and natural disaster occurs frequentlyand economic loss in miserable situation, moreover the evil consequence fromthe of lose of control technologically and overage development is more seriousyear after year and the daily ecological environment of Man is trending towardsdeteriorated. How could we envisage the world economic decay, terror attack,global warming, and cologne man et al. 1. A new world shaking choice: Smashing theMoon According to the report from South Daily on May 10 th that5 scientists from Russia represented by Vladimir( Flarjimer. Keluyinsiji) said that most of the disasters occurred on Earth are resulted from the Moon.,therefore, they proposed to the Russian Government that the moon should besmashed. It is believed by Keluyinsiji thatRussian is located in North hemisphere and most of the country is near to theArctic Ocean, the winter is too long and agriculture is greatly affected bythat, all these problems are caused by the moon gravitation. The moon isdrawing the earth just like a weight throw and is making tide up and down, andcausing natural disaster. The strong gravity from the moon is dragging theearth moving not in its original route, therefore, while it is rotating, theearth rotates the sun with awkward tilting way, the strong gravity from themoon drags away the earth, this is the main reason why the climate changesuncertainly. The earth will not be tilted if the moon is smashed, if the obliquityof the earth to the moon turned to be zero, it means that season changes woulddisappear on the earth, and the earth shall possess suitable climate and therewould be no winter in Russian again, and spring should be always in some placesforever, desert would become into oasis, crops would grow prosperously and manwould have no threat of famine again if the time arrives. It is disclosed by Keluyinsiji thatit is simply easy for the man to smash the moon, only 60 million tons ofnuclear bomb is loaded onto the Russian Federal typed Rockets, can the rocketwith nuclear bomb sent to the moon smash the moon, the problem is whetherRussia and other countries agree to do this or not. It is said that the 5scientists have formally submit their proposal to Russian government, anofficial from the Kremlin who did not like to disclose his name says that thehigh official of government feels this proposal not only novelty but give thema deep impression. The government promised to the scientist that they willstudy the feasibility of this proposal carefully. The climate at different latitudeof the earth will be greatly affected if the moon is smashed. This proposalwill bring the every country to face the difficult decision which has closerelationship with benefit of their nationality. 2. The affect of the moon to El Nino The proposal from the 5scientists represented by Keluyinsiji has its ownbases. The nature disasters such as drought, flood, earthquake, volcaniceruption and El Nino have close relationship with the moon activity. It isshown by the recent study that the differential rotation between earth fluidand its solid parts caused by temperature difference and tidal force willbecome strengthen under the interaction of Coriolis forces, the obviousevidence is such like trade wind, typhoon, storm surge, ocean-flow orbiting/moving continent and abnormal big tide. It is shown by the recent calculation that relative to earth, thesun is swing between Tropic of cancer and tropic of Capricorn, this makes thefluid concussion and admixture from south to north relative to solid. Becauseof the obstruct of continent, there are respectively 6605998, 5251 and 368 km 3 of aerosphere, sea water and fluid of liquid core will flow into southhemisphere and north hemisphere, and the flow will be drifted westwards oreastwards acceleratedly by the action of Coriolis Forces, this makes theincrease of differential rotation speed of each sphere, it is the main reasonfor oceanic heat exchange and cool water from the two poles intruding theequator which makes the Atlantic warm water become cool. 4 eclipses and 3 planet opposability occurred near vernalequinox and autumnal equinox in 1997 increase the strength of water from twopoles intruding the equator and the Atlantic warm water becoming cool,therefore, strong El Nino Event is formed (Yang Xuexiang, 1998,1999,2000a-2000d,2001a-2001d,2002a-2002d, 2003a-2003d). From 1882 to 1998, there were 31 years without eclipses during which17 El Nino Events occurred in the same year, which is about 55% of the totalevents, and only 4 El Nino Events occurred before or after 1 year of eclipsesand 2 El Nino Events occurred before or after 2 years of eclipses. It isindicated that the phase difference between eclipses year and El Nino year is 2years at most. The tidal deformation is in its weakest/lowest value during theyear without eclipses, and it is the most important evidence for predicting ElNino. There is no eclipses in 2002,there might have El Nino event occurred from2001 to 2004. The solar and moon eclipses is resulted from the collineation andcontrolled by Saro period (Saro is 18year and 10.33~11.33days), therefore, ithas a close relationship with strong tides. According to the study of LinZhenshan et al (1999). Each sun eclipses occurred in high latitude or polarareas make the falling air flow become week at polar region, thus, east wind atequator becomes week also. However, there would be 3—6 sun eclipses occurredcontinuously within 1-2years at medium latitude area, which may induce El NinoEvent. Solar eclipses has a close relationship with strong tide bylunisolar tide, which controls thedistributionanomaly of heat energy, the strong tide controls the distribution anomaly ofkinetic energy. 18.6 year period of declination angle is not only the cause ofstrong tide for aerosphere and ocean but the cause for magma tide ofasthenosphere and liquid core tide in the outer core. It is shown by the dataverification that the phase difference between Sun eclipses and El Nino is 12—24months, and the phase difference between declination period of the moon andSaros period is 0.6 year may be the main reason for above-mentioned phasedifference. After the maximum value of the 2 periods coincides with each other,the phase difference of the 2 maximum values is 7.2 months after the firstperiods; 14.4months after the second period,21.6months after the third period,this is the main reason why El Nino event is not follow the Saro periodstrictly. The differential rotation between solid and fluid caused by tidalforce can explain a 1500 to 1800-year cycle of the climate change temperatureuncovered. Strong tides increase the vertical and horizontal mixing of water inthe oceans, drawing the cold / warm Pacific water from the depths/west to thesurface / east, where it cools / warms the atmosphere above, and makes La Nina/ El Nino occur in the whole world. The Astronomical data have been shown thatstrong tides are associated with El Nino events, Volcano activities on thebottom of the sea are also controlled by strong tides, drawing warm water fromthe depths to the surface in the Pacific, erupting ashes to keep out sunlight,which is the most important external forcing factor for El Nino. When volcanicashes reached the stratosphere, some of lesser aerosols spread through out theglobe during a few months and would be floating in it for one to three yearsand falling over the areas of the pole, which would weaken the sun’s directradiation in the pole just like solar eclipse (Yang Xuexiang, 2002d). 3. The affect of the moon to volcanicactivity and earthquakes Earthquake and volcanic tectonic activities have a relationship with18.6 year period solid tide which is called magma tide (Du Pinren, 1994). Thevolcanic erupting material can reach to the height of 1—40km, last time fromseveral week to over 10 years, volcanic eruption at low latitude can diffuseall over the earth, and keeps its high content at medium and high latitude,finally falls down at polar caps. The volcanic ash can reduce sun radiation,and can greatly affect the area of medium and high area, for example, theeruption of Argonne volcano ( 8.5 o S,115.5 o E at Bali island of Indonesia inMarch,1963, St. Helen volcano (St. Helens; 46 o N,122 o W)of USA erupted in May, 1980, these eruption results in the decrease 15% of thesun direct radiation, and makes the temperature in North hemisphere, the temperaturedecrease is about 18 months behind the eruption. There is an obvious lowtemperature periods, foe example, there were 6 low temperature summers in ournortheast China from 1951 to 1985, which we called it low temperature disasteryears, there were 5 low temperature years occurred after 1-2 years when the 2grade volcano is erupted, volcanic ash shades the sun light and makes theclimate become cold (Guo Zengjian et al, 1996). When the ash falls down atpolar areas, it greatly affected the sun radiation dose in polar region, thiseffect is same as the effect when the solar eclipses effected the El Nino, itis the main factors that controls the delay of El Nino event(low latitudeeruption) and excitation (high latitude eruption). From 1920s to 1950s, it is aweak period for volcanic eruption, it is also a weak period for oceanic El Ninoevent and the strength is also weak, since 1950s, the volcanic activitiesbecame more around the world, and in the mean time, the there were more El Ninoevents occurred among oceans and their strength was also strong. According tothe statistics from about 100 years, about 75% of El Nini event occurred afterone and half or 2 years when the volcano erupted. At the end of June in 2000, volcanic and seismic events started atIzu islands south of Tokyo. Following the event, extraordinary crustaldeformation was observed around the Izue islands. Until the end of August, boththe volcanic and seismic activities were high. It is suggested that the crustaldeformation was caused by a dyke intrusion event at Izu islands and concernedwith strong tides. Tidal model on sea-floor spreading is proposed based on theobservational data and calculative data (Yang Xuexiang, 2003b,2003c). Tides and El Nino events make the oceanic water in East PacificOcean and West Pacific Ocean go up and down 1500px oppositely, which make oceaniccrust fall or rise 500px. It is the reason why El Nino events are interrelatedwith the earthquakes and volcanoes. This phenomenon is just like “seesaw”. Thesame process is not only in Pacific Ocean, but also in Indian Ocean. This isthe reason for Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Rising up. The denudation and sedimentalso make the crust move as seesaw. It is shown by calculation that effect ofdenudation and sediment for fifty years bring to bear moment M = 4.36 × 10 14 N · m on the end of continental andoceanic crust(Yang Xuexiang, 2003a). 4. The Influence of Lunar Orbit Over theIntensive Precipitation The included angle between the lunar orbital plane and the equatorialplane is defined as the lunar declination angle. The degree of the angle isfull of variety and ranges from 18.5’to 18.6’. The cycle is 18.6 year. According to the study result of Mr. GuoZengjian’s team(1996), the projective point of the lunar delination angle isfar away from the main land of China when its degree is minimum. Therefore, thecrust warping caused is small and at the meantime the moisture that carrying theheat out being released from underground is less. Consequently, the collidingbetween the tropical air and high latitude cold air mass is not happened easilyat the mainland of China with the result that the falling capacity is reducingand the drought is forming. In the years of 1941~1942, 1959~1960, 1978 and 1997which the degrees of the lunar delination angle is minimum, the seriousdroughts occurred in China. The result of calculation indicates that when thedegree of the angle is maximum the changing of crustal volume is 2.3 times asmuch as it when the degree of the angle is minimum. Therefore, the crustaldeformation caused by tides is not only the cause of formation of earthquakebut also is the cause of formation of the intensive precipitation (YangXuexiang, 1999). The crustal deformation caused by the change of the lunardelination angle has strengthened the atmosphere falling process by thefunction of heat and vapor extractions of the crust and earth mantle. In theyears that the degrees of the lunar delination angles were maximum, there wereseveral serious floods occurred in succession, such as the serious floods ofZhujiang* River(1915), Huaihe* River Changjiang River (1932),Songhuajiang River (1932), Yellow River* (1933), Zhujiang* River(1949), LiaoheRiver (1951), Songhuajiang River (1969), Liaohe River (1986) Remark: The onesmarked with * were extraordinary floods. El Nino event occurred in each year mentionedabove without exception (Yang Xuexiang, 2001d). The interact between the sun and the lunar on tide generating forcecan be strengthened and the crustal deformation can be enlarged when these twostars are suspension. Around the years that the sun and the lunar aresuspension, there were serious floods occurred in succession, such as theserious floods of Huaihe River * Changjiang River * (1954), Haihe River Songhuajiang River* (1956), Huaihe Haihe* (1963), Yellow River (1964),Huaihe River* (1975), Yellow River* Changjiang River* (1981), ZhujiangRiver (1982), Changjiang River (1983), Huaihe River*/ChangjiangRiver*/Songhuajiang River*(1991). Due to El Nino is related to strong tides, El Nino is also relatedthe serious flood year to a great extent. There were 44 El Nino years in theduration of the period from 1900 to 2000. In those years there were 19 seriousfloods. There were 11 serious floods occurred in the years around. The floodscaused by El Nino account for eighty eight per cent of the total of the Chinesefloods(Yang Xuexiang, 2001d). 5. The Lunar Is a Thermostat of the Earth Theexistence of the Lunar has its advantages as well as disadvantages. Manydynamic phenomena are related to the lunar due to that the rate of masses ofthe earth and the lunar is maximum. That probably is the reason of the life existenceon the earth. We should appreciate first the lunar for the regulating andcontrol effect because the surface temperature is suitable for human’s subsistence.On the contrary, the life is difficult to subsist due to the great temperaturevariation and the adverse circumstances of those extraterrestrial planets. The American Scientists believe that the lunar is a thermostat whichcan regulate and control the green-house effect. The lunar was able to make theperiodic temperature variation happened on the earth by influencing the tidesof the earth, ever said Mr. Charles of the Oceanographic Research Institutewhich belongs to Sentiago Branch of California University. After years oflook to the Sun to explain the natural cycles of the climate, scientists saythey have found a major new influence--- the Moon. American researchers believethe Earth’s inert satellite not only triggered a little ice age 500 years ago,but is on course to warm the world for several hundred years to come, evenwithout the greenhouse effect. The Moon resetsthe planet’s thermostat through its influence on the tides, says CharlesKeeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University ofCalifornia, San Diego. He says lunar oscillations explain an intriguing 1500 to1800-year cycle in the world’s temperature uncovered three years ago by GerardBond of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University inPalisades, New York. This puts the Earth in the middle of a warming phase thatbegan at the end of the little ice age, and will carry on until the 24 th century. Bond(1993,1997)unearthed this rhythmic fluctuation between warm and cold eras by analysingsediment cores from the Atlantic Ocean. He has now traced the cycle back morethan 100 000 years to the last major ice age. “It seems to be the pacemaker ofrapid climate change,” he says. But he had no explanation for this cycle. But Keeling andhis colleague Timothy Whorf think they know what’s going on. They say that thechanging alignment of the Earth, Moon and Sun causes gradual changes in thestrength of tides on the same timescale as Bond’s climate cycle. Strong tides,Keeling says, “increase the vertical mixing of water in the oceans, drawingcold ocean water from the depths to the surface, where it cools the atmosphereabove”. Weak tides reduce this mixing---keeping the cold water at the bottom ofthe sea out of contact with the atmosphere, allowing the world to warm.“Charles’s idea is very interesting---absolutely a possible explanation,” saysBond. Keeling’s calculations show that tides reached their maximumstrength around 1425 in the depths of the little ice age when the River Thamesfrequently froze over in London. Since then the tides have weakened and willnot peak again until around 3100. Although other forces are at work, he says,the 1800-year-cycle has been “the principal driver of climate change” for thepast 10 000 years. Keeling, who first demonstrated the accumulation of greenhouse gasesin the atmosphere forty years ago, says his findings do not contradict the ideathat these gases are warming the world. Instead, they make it all the moreimportant that the world redoubles its efforts to control greenhouse gases (FredPearce, 2000). The warm period of the earth last until the 24th century from theend of the Little Ice Age due to this effect. After that, the earth custom willbe colder and colder follow the tide is strengthened more and more. The lunar tide is 2.17 times as much as the Sun tide. If the lunaris destroyed, the strength of the oceanic tide on the earth will reduced to1/3. In that case the cold water in the ocean deep will be difficult to bebrought to the surface of the ocean and the global custom will be warmer andwarmer. Without doubt, it will make the trend of warming up the custom on aglobal scale on aggravation (Yang Xuexiang, 1998,1999,2001,2002). 6. The contribution of Lunar tide toreducing greenhouse effect The carbon content in continent and ocean is much more than that ofaerosphere, if the carbon stored in ocean release 2%, the carbon content in theair will increase 2 times, the carbon content in the air in Cretaceous is 8~10times than that of present, the content of CO 2 and CH 4 atthe last peak ice age reduced 30—40% and 50% respectively than now, the airrelease from tectonic activities and air discharge from ocean temperatureincrease is the main reasons. It is found that the energy held in CH 4 crystalat the ocean bottom is more than that of all fossil fuel, however, these CH 4 hydrate ore is very brittle, therefore, the air escaped from CH 4 mayaggravate the global warming up, obviously, tectonic activity and oceanictemperature increase is the main reason for the air from green house cominginto aerosphere from mantle and ocean, moreover, the high precipitation andstrong tides is the main reason for CO 2 from aerosphere transferringto ocean. The cycle of CO 2 between ocean and aeroshpere iscontrolled by upstream flow and downstream flow. The water body at highlatitude contains great amount of CO 2 before settlement, and thewater body goes up at the equator and release CO 2 , its present ratesis 3~5 × 10 10 t/a.This cycle is not in its balance status, obviously, strong tide bring the coolwaters at the deep ocean up to the ocean surface and the cool water can absorbmore CO 2 from the air, therefore, this result in CO 2 concentrated in the sea bottom. The strong earthquakes in the ocean bottom can bringthe cool waters at the deep ocean up to the ocean surface also and make theglobal climate cooling (Guo Zhengjian, 2002). Carbon cycle is one of the complex earth processes, the CO 2 in the air is supplied by ocean and continent, and the content of CO 2 in ocean is about 50 times than that in the air. 60% of CO 2 from theman activities is contained in the air, the rest is absorbed by the ocean,which the absorb ratio in ocean is 2 × 10 9 t/a, the strong tide will speed up the absorbing of CO 2 of the aerosphere into ocean and reduce greenhouse effect, this function of thetide can not be neglected or replaced. Tide will become weak and green houseeffect become strong if the moon is smashed. According to the report from “New Culture Daily” on May 18th, 2002,page A4, the speed for the warming up of the whole global is speeded up, theicebergs separated from Antarctic tends to be more and more, and the thicknessof Arctic ice was reducing from 4.8m to 2.7m, many polar bear died of coldtemperature, and the butterflies flied northward as fast as they can. Hightemperature weather occurred in South India last week unusually, thetemperature reached 49.50C in some places, 622 persons died of the hot weather.The tide resulted from the moon gravitational force is the root of somedisasters, however, it can also reduce the green house effect and regulate thetemperature, this is an obvious fact. It is proved that the moon is the thermostat of the earth. Thegreenhouse effect would be out of control without the moon, and the tendencyfor the global warming up would be critical, it is a risk to smash the moonunder the condition that the advantage and disadvantage is unclear to us. Reference Bond G, Broecker W, Johnsen S, et al. Correlations between climaterecord from North Atlantic sediments and Greenland ice. Nature,1993,365:143~147 Bond G, Showers W, Cheseby M, et al. A pervasive millennial-scale cyclein North Atlantic Holocene and glacial climates. 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Tidal model of sea-floor spreading . Journal ofGeodesy and Geodynamics. 2003c,23(2):77-80. (in Chinese) Yang Xuexiang. El Nino prediction. Scientific technology andEngineering (in Chinese). 2003d, 3(2);155. 摧毁月球将加速全球变暖 杨学祥 , 陈殿友 (中国科学院国家天文台,北京100012;吉林大学 地球探测科学与技术学院 , 长春130026;吉林大学数学科学院,130012) 摘 要:月球的存在有弊有利。在太阳系的行星与卫星关系中,由于月球与地球的质量比最大,地球上的许多动力现象与月球有关,这可能是地球上有生命存在的原因。月球强大引力所形成的强潮汐,既是地球上发生的许多自然灾害的祸源,也对减弱温室效应和调控地表温度做出了不可磨灭的贡献。已有证据表明,月球是地球的恒温器,失去月球有可能导致温室效应失控,加剧全球变暖的严峻趋势。在月球功过利弊尚不完全清楚的条件下,贸然摧毁月球将带来更大的不可预测和不可复原的风险。 关键词:月球,潮汐,全球变暖,厄尔尼诺,生命存在,温室效应 21 世纪伊始,世界就面临太多的天灾人祸,人类也就面临太多的艰难选择。美国新经济在持续十年增长之后突然衰退,“ 9.11 ”恐怖主义袭击事件又使之雪上加霜;中东和平进程受阻,以巴冲突导致杰宁人道主义灾难;全球变暖证据一年多于一年,自然灾害频发,经济损失惨重;技术失控和过度开发的恶果也一年强似一年,全球污染严重,人类生态环境日趋恶化。如何面对世界经济衰退?如何面对恐怖主义袭击?如何面对全球变暖?如何面对科隆人等等。 1. 一项震惊世界的新选择:将月球摧毁! 据《南方日报》 2002 年 5 月 10 日报道,近日,以弗拉基米尔·克鲁因斯基为首的俄罗斯 5 名科学家称月球是地球上发生的许多自然灾害的祸源,并向俄政府提出一项震惊世界的建议:将月球摧毁! 克鲁因斯基指出,俄罗斯位于北半球,大部分国土靠近北冰洋,冬季太过漫长,农业生产受到极大影响,这一切都是月球引力造成的。月亮就像一个链球,紧紧地拉着地球,使得海潮起起落落,引发自然灾害。月球强大的引力将地球拉歪了,使得地球在自转的同时,以一种笨拙的倾斜姿势绕着太阳转,因此使得地球上的气候变化无常。只要将月球摧毁,地球就不再倾斜。如果地球的倾角变成 0 度,这就意味着季节变化从地球上消失,整个地球就会拥有适宜的气候,俄罗斯的冬季会一去不复返,有些地方则会拥有永恒的春天。到那个时候,现在的沙漠会变成绿洲,农作物会茁壮成长,人类不会再面临饥饿的威胁。 据克鲁因斯基透露,摧毁月球对于现代人类来说,是一件非常简单的事情。只需要在俄罗斯的“联盟”型火箭上装上 6000 万吨级的核弹头,然后将它们射向月球即可。现在的问题是俄罗斯和其他国家是否同意这么做。据悉,这 5 名科学家已经把他们的建议郑重地提交俄罗斯政府。克里姆林宫一位不愿透漏姓名的内部人士表示,这一建议不仅让政府高层觉得新鲜,也给他们留下了深刻印象。政府向这些科学家许诺,将对这一建议的可行性进行认真研究。由于摧毁月球对地球不同纬度地区的气候有不同的影响,这项建议也使世界各国面临与本民族生死攸关的艰难选择。 2. 月球对厄尔尼诺的影响 以弗拉基米尔·克鲁因斯基为首的俄罗斯 5 名科学家的建议是有一定根据的。旱涝、地震、火山喷发和厄尔尼诺等灾害与月球密切相关。近期研究表明,温差和潮汐力引起的地球流体与固体的差异旋转在科里奥利力的作用下得到加强,信风、台风、风暴潮、海流环陆运动和异常大潮是明显可见的实例 。 最新计算结果表明,太阳相对地球在南北回归线之间的摆动,使流体相对固体南北振荡与混合。由于大陆的阻隔,地球南半球和北半球分别有 6605998 、 5251 和 368km 3 体积的大气、海水和液核流体通过赤道流向北半球和南半球,并在科氏力作用下加速向西或向东漂移,使各圈层差异旋转速度增大。这是南北半球之间的海洋热交换和两极冷水入侵赤道并使大洋西部暖水变冷的主要原因。 1997 年发生在春分和秋分附近的 4 次交食和 3 次行星冲日,加大两极冷水入侵赤道西太平洋使暖水东移的强度,形成了 1997 年的强厄尔尼诺事件 。 从 1822 年到 1998 年,有 31 年无月食。当年发生厄尔尼诺的共 17 个,占总数的 55% 。其前后一年内不发生厄尔尼诺事件的仅有 4 个,其前后 2 年内都发生了厄尔尼诺。这表明无月食年与厄尔尼诺的相位差最大不超过两年。无月食年是地球潮汐形变的极小值年,是预测厄尔尼诺的重要依据。 2002 年无月食, 2001~2004 年内必发生厄尔尼诺事件 。 日食和月食是日、地、月共线的结果并受沙罗周期 (沙罗周期为 18 年零 10.33~11.33 天) 控制,因此与强潮汐密切相关。据林振山等人的研究,每次高纬或极区的日食都将使极地下沉气流减弱,从而使赤道东风减弱。1-2年内在中纬以上地区连续发生3-6次日食,将使赤道东风减弱逐次得到加强,从而诱发厄尔尼诺现象 。 日食通过日月大潮与强潮汐密切相关,前者决定热能分布异常,后者决定动能分布异常。 18.6 年的月亮赤纬角变化周期不仅是大气和海洋强潮汐产生的原因,而且是软流圈的岩浆潮 和外核的液核潮产生的原因。 资料检验表明, 日食与 El Nino 之间存在 12 — 24 月的位相差,月亮赤纬角变化周期与沙罗周期相差 0.6 年可能是其原因 。两种周期的极大值重合后,第一个周期后两种极大值相差 7.2 个月,第二个周期后相差 14.4 个月,第三个周期后相差 21.6 个月。这是厄尔尼诺事件并不严格遵循沙罗周期的原因。 用潮汐产生的地球流体与固体的差异旋转,可以解释 1500 — 1800 年周期的气候变化。 强潮汐加大垂直方向和水平方向海水的混合,将太平洋深层冷水翻上表面 (或使太平洋西部暖水流向东部,北部暖水流向南部),使海洋上方空气变冷(或变暖),产生拉尼娜冷事件(或厄尔尼诺热事件)。天文资料表明,强潮汐与厄尔尼诺事件有很好的对应关系,火山活动亦受强潮汐的控制 。 火山喷发使海洋底层暖水上升到海洋表面,火山灰遮蔽阳光使气候变冷, 它们是控制厄尔尼诺事件发生的重要外强迫因子。当火山灰在低纬度地区上升到平流层, 较小的气溶胶可在数月内传播至全球,并可在平流层内持续飘浮1-3年,最后降落在两极地区,减弱被 遮蔽 区的太阳辐射,与该区发生日食的效果相同,是厄尔尼诺事件的延迟因子 。 3. 月球对地震活动和火山活动的影响 地震和火山等构造活动与 18.6 年周期变化的固体潮相关,被称为岩浆潮 。火山喷发物到达的高度为 1 — 40 km ;持续时间为几星期至 10 多年。低纬度火山喷发能扩散到全球,在中高纬度保持最大浓度,最后在极冠落下。火山灰减弱太阳辐射,对中高纬度的影响最大。 1963 年 3 月印度尼西亚巴厘岛上的阿贡火山( 8.5 o S,115.5 o E )爆发, 1980 年 5 月美国圣海伦斯火山( St. Helens; 46 o N,122 o W )大爆发,造成次年太阳直接辐射减少量都在 15% 以上,使北半球平均温度下降。滞后于火山喷发 18 个月,我国有一个显著的低温期。 1951 年到 1985 年,我国东北地区有 6 个夏季低温冷害年,其中 5 年都发生在 2 级以上火山喷发后 1 - 2 年 。火山灰遮蔽阳光使气候变冷,在向两极地区集中降落过程中严重影响极区太阳辐射量,与该地区发生日食影响 El Nino 的效果相同, 是控制厄尔尼诺事件发生的延迟(低纬喷发)或激发(高纬喷发)因子。二十年代到五十年代,是火山活动的低潮期,也是世界大洋厄尔尼诺现象次数较少、强度较弱的时期;五十年代以后,世界各地的火山活动进入了活跃期,与此同时,大洋上厄尔尼诺现象次数也相应增多,而且表现十分强烈。据近百年的资料统计,75%左右的厄尔尼诺现象是在强火山爆发后一年半到两年间发生的。 2000 年 6 月底,东京以南的伊豆岛开始发生火山与地震活动。此后,在伊豆岛观测到异常的地壳变形。 8 月底 , 火山与地震活动达到高潮。分析结果认为,地壳变形是由伊豆岛的岩脉侵入引起的,并且与强潮汐天文条件相对应。根据观测和计算数据提出了海底扩张的潮汐模式 。 潮汐和厄尔尼诺事件使东西太平洋海面高度分别升降 1500px ,水均衡作用使洋壳反向升降 500px 。由此形成东西太平洋地壳跷跷板运动。这是地震火山群发事件与厄尔尼诺事件一一对应的原因。发生在印度洋的同样过程是青藏高原隆升的原因。剥蚀沉积也会产生陆海地壳的跷跷板运动。计算表明, 50 年的剥蚀沉积作用施加在陆海地壳两端的力矩为 M = 4.36 × 10 14 N · m ;相当于在陆海地壳两端施加的反向力 p = 4.36 × 10 8 N 。这两种跷跷板运动相互加强,是青藏高原隆升的基本动力 。 4. 月球轨道对强降水的影响 月球轨道(白道)面与地球赤道面之间的夹角称为月亮赤纬角(亦称白赤交角)。这个角度时常在变化,最小为 18.5 0 , 最大为 28.5 0 , 周期为 18.6 年。据郭增建等人的研究,当月亮赤纬角最小时,它的直下点远离中国主大陆,所以在主大陆内引起的地壳鼓起就小,因之地下放出的携热水汽就少,这样就不易诱使热带气团与高纬冷气团在中国大陆相碰,因之雨量减少,会形成干旱。在月亮赤围角最小年的 1941~1942 、 1959~1960 、 1978 、 1997 年,中国都发生了大旱灾 。计算表明,月亮赤纬角最大时产生的地壳容积变化是赤纬角最小时的 2.3 倍。因此,潮汐引起的地壳形变不仅是地震的成因,而且是强降水的成因 。月亮赤纬角变化所引起的地壳形变,通过地壳地幔排热排气作用而强化了大气降水过程。在月亮赤纬角最大年相继发生了珠江 * ( 1915 )、淮河 * 和长江 * ( 1931 )、松花江( 1932 )、黄河 * ( 1933 )、珠江( 1949 )、辽河( 1951 )、松花江( 1969 )、辽河( 1986 )大洪水(带 * 号为特大洪水)。每次月亮赤纬角最大值都对应一个厄尔尼诺年 。 日月同纬可以加强日月引潮力的相互作用,增大地壳形变。在日月同纬年份附近,相继发生了淮河 * 和长江 * ( 1954 )、海河和松花江 * ( 1956 )、淮河和海河 * ( 1963 )、黄河( 1964 )、淮河 * ( 1975 )、黄河 * 和长江 * ( 1981 )、珠江( 1982 )、长江( 1983 )、淮河 * 和长江 * 以及松花江 * ( 1991 )大洪水 。 由于厄尔尼诺与强潮汐相关,所以厄尔尼诺年也与大洪水年有很好的相关性。 1900~2000 年期间的厄尔尼诺年共 44 个,当年中国发生大洪水的有 19 个,上下一年中国发生大洪水的有 11 个,占中国大洪水总数( 34 )的 88% 。 5. 月球是地球的恒温器 月球的存在有弊有利。由于月球与地球的质量比最大,地球上的许多动力现象与月球有关,这可能是地球上有生命存在的原因。地表温度适于人类生存首先应该感谢月球的调控作用。与此相反,地外行星悬殊的温差变化和恶劣的环境使生命难以存在。 美国科学家相信,即使没有温室效应 , 地球自己的卫星月球也会使地球的温度上升。加州大学圣地亚哥分校海洋学研究所的查尔斯 . 季林说,月球通过影响地球上的潮汐使地球的温度上升 。 5 年前杰拉尔德 . 邦德通过分析大西洋底的沉积层,发现地球的寒冷期和温暖期出现有规律的波动,波动周期大约为 1500~1800 年 。季林认为,地球、月亮和太阳相对位置的变化会引起潮汐强度的逐渐变化,其周期与邦德提出的“气候周期”是一致的。当日、地、月排成一线且相互距离最小时,日月引潮力相互加强而变为最大,地球海洋潮汐规模也最大,这时就有更多来自海洋深处的冷水被带到海面。这些冷水可以冷却海洋上的空气。当日、地连成的直线与月、地连成的直线相互垂直时,太阳潮汐减弱月球潮汐,使地球海洋潮汐变小,这时海洋深处的冷水很难被带到海面,世界就变得暖和。据季林的计算,大约在 1425 年即小冰期的末期,潮汐达到了最大值,从那以后逐渐减弱,直到 3100 年潮汐又达到最大值。这个周期是过去 1 万年气候变迁的主要动力。这个效应使地球的温暖期从小冰期末期一直持续到 24 世纪,而后随着潮汐的增强,地球的气候将逐渐变冷。 月球潮汐是太阳潮汐的 2.17 倍,如果摧毁月球,地球海洋潮汐强度将减少三分之二。由于潮汐变小,海洋深处的冷水很难被带到海面,世界就变得更加暖和。这对不断加剧的全球变暖趋势无疑是火上浇油。 6. 月球潮汐在减弱温室效应中的贡献 陆地和海洋含碳量远大于大气,存储在海洋中的碳只要释放 2% ,就将使大气中的 CO 2 含量增加一倍。白垩纪大气碳含量是目前的 8~10 倍,末次冰期高峰时大气 CO 2 和 CH 4 含量分别比现在减少 30~40% 和 50% 。构造运动释气和海洋增温排气是主要原因。近期发现 , 海底 CH 4 冰晶体蕴藏的能量比世界上储存的全部化石燃料所包含的能量还多。但这些甲烷水合物矿床脆弱,从中逃逸出的气体可能加剧全球变暖。显然,构造活动和海洋增温是温室气体从地幔和海洋进入大气的主要原因,而高降水和强潮汐是大气中的 CO 2 转移到海洋中的原因。海洋和大气之间的 CO 2 循环,主要受大洋上升流与下降流的控制。高纬度水体在沉降之前溶有大量 CO 2 ,在赤道处水体上升变热并释放 CO 2 ,其现代速率为 3~5 × 10 10 t/a 。这个循环并不是永远处于平衡状态。显然,强潮汐将海洋深处冷水层翻到海洋表层,冷水吸收更多的大气中的 CO 2 从而导致 CO 2 聚集在海底 ,海洋强震起激发作用 。 碳循环是最复杂的地球过程之一,大气中的 CO 2 是由海洋和陆地提供的,其中海洋储存的 CO 2 约为大气中的 50 倍。人类活动造成的 CO 2 ,有近 60% 存在于大气中,其余被海洋吸收,海洋的吸收速率为 2 × 10 9 t/a 。强潮汐加快海洋吸收大气中的 CO 2 的速度,减弱温室效应,其作用既不可忽视也不可替代。如果摧毁月球,这将导致潮汐减弱和温室效应增强。 据《新文化报》 2002 年 5 月 18 日 A4 版报道,全球变暖的速度已比以往明显加快,从南极洲分离的冰山数量呈现出上升趋势,近 20 年来北极圈里的冰层由原来的 4.8 米厚降至现在的 2.7 米,许多北极熊被活活饿死,热带蝴蝶拼命向北飞,印度南部上周开始出现罕见的高温天气,部分地区甚至达到了 49.5 摄氏度,已有 622 人因热浪死亡。月球强大引力所形成的强潮汐,既是地球上发生的许多自然灾害的祸源,也对减弱温室效应和调控地表温度做出了不可磨灭的贡献。 已有证据表明,月球是地球的恒温器,失去月球有可能导致温室效应失控,加剧全球变暖的严峻趋势。在月球功过利弊尚不完全清楚的条件下,贸然摧毁月球将带来更大的不可预测和不可复原的风险。 参考文献 1. 杨学祥. 地球形变产生的岩石圈、水圈和气圈等差异旋转. 中国学术期刊文摘(科技快报). 2001 , 7 ( 7 ): 902~904 2. 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(“我评获奖科普作品”系列之五) 最近又看完了三本国外科普。《月球的故事》(原题为 Patrick Moore on the Moon ,马星垣、傅德譧译,北京理工大学出版社, 2005 年 1 月)和《火星的故事》( 原题为 Patrick Moore on Mars , 宋宇莹、刘茜译,北京理工大学出版社, 2004 年 5 月)都是英国著名天文科普作家帕特里克·摩尔( Patrick Moore , 1923 - )的作品。摩尔是 BBC 的天文节目主持人,虽然名气不如艾登堡( David Attenborough ),但他们同样都是 BBC 的著名科普活动家。 这两本书的内容相近,无论是月球还是火星都讲了其运动、观测史和空间探索史,书中的特色内容则在于教导天文爱好者如何观察月球和火星。由于月球离地球近,表面的观测目标很多,所以《月球的故事》一书中有非常详细的月面观测指南,这部分内容放在附录中,竟使全书的附录几乎和正文一样长。火星离地球较远,《火星的故事》一书中的观察指南内容虽然不多,也仍然做到了尽可能详尽。 我对于天文观测不太感兴趣,对于太阳系天体的演化比较感兴趣,但这两本书中对月球和火星的演化介绍得很简略。所以,对于爱好观测的天文爱好者来说,这两本书是难得的好书,值得时时参阅;但对于我来说,浏览一过也就可以了。在写作技巧方面,这两本书的特色之一,是作者不时把自己的人生经历写入书中,这样就给这两本天文科普书打上了鲜明的作者烙印。 同样,获得第二届中国科普作家协会优秀科普作品奖优秀奖的《视觉之旅:神奇的化学元素》[原题为 The Elements: A Visual Exploration of Every Known Atom in the Universe ,文字作者为美国的西奥多·格雷( Theodore Gray ),摄影作者为美国的尼克·曼( Nick Mann ),陈沛然译,人民邮电出版社, 2011 年 2 月],不仅是一部化学科普,也是一部讲述作者自己故事的书。 讲述化学元素的科普书已经有很多种,但是这本书非常独特,甚至可以说是“另类”。格雷是一位 IT 工程师和元素收藏家,从 2002 年开始元素收藏,到 2009 年出版这本书时,已经收集了约 2300 件代表每一个元素的物品,有的是元素的单质,有的是元素的化合物,还有的是应用了这些元素的制品(比如铍铜合金扳手、含硼的弹性橡皮泥、钛制的人造髋关节等)。书中的绝大多数照片,都是格雷请摄影作者曼拍摄的自己的藏品。 正因为如此,在书中作者自己的收藏经历时时可见于图注或正文文字中。比如作者在童年时代制作过一尊锌制的雕塑,锌是他学会铸造的第一种金属;在中学手工课上,作者制作过一尊铝制大炮模型;他还用一根钛棒通过机械加工打制成一枚纯钛戒指。作者亲自动手打造的更不寻常的物件是用同样的模子浇铸出来的两条金属鱼,其材料非常特殊,一条用的是镉,另一条用的则是低温下凝结为固态的汞。 在讲述碘的时候,作者通过打光的拍摄认识到了烟雾和蒸气的区别。在讲述铯的时候,作者说他花了几天时间检验各种碱金属遇水后反应的剧烈程度,最后得出结论:实际上反应最剧烈的是钠,而不是人们长期误以为的铯(虽然铯是最活泼的稳定碱金属)。更有趣的是作者收集铌制品的经历:他从 eBay 上买了一个带有铌合金喷嘴的火箭发动机,原以为是过时的废品,却不料是被人从空军基地盗走的先进制品,结果导致这件样品被联邦调查局没收;此外,他还强忍尴尬,走进一家在身体上制造穿孔的肮脏饰品店,买到了由纯铌制成的穿刺饰品。 作者的父亲也是一位收藏家,目标是各种矿物。在书中可以见到这位父亲收藏的海蓝宝石(含有铍)。他还收藏有一块漂亮的宝石级菱锰矿,但是后来同意儿子用它从一位矿石商人那里换来了许多含有其他元素的矿石。 说实话,尽管我从小就对化学元素非常熟悉(这在很大程度上要归功于著名科普作家叶永烈), 本科的专业也是化学, 但是我在看过这本书两遍之后,仍然不敢说自己记清了 17 种稀土元素的用途。事实上我看这本书的时候根本就没有想过去记这些知识,兴趣完全被作者的收藏经历吸引过去了。除了这些收藏故事,书中最让我印象深刻的内容之一,也和个人的体验有关:有一位叫克里斯·坎特( Chris Kanter )的读者,大胆尝试了 5 种碱金属的氯化物的味道,并“活着”报告了他的品尝结果:“氯化钠……是碱金属氯化物中味道最好的一个。……氯化钾……会在咸味之外增加一点苦涩的金属味。氯化铷和氯化铯的咸味更淡而金属味更浓,而氯化锂先是产生灼烧般的感觉,紧接着是一种油腻的金属味的回味。” 我不禁想到,这种和元素有关的个人经历和经验,大概也可以归结为“个人知识”的一类。个人知识是博物学知识的重要组成部分,这本书如此的写作方式,也就使它具有博物学色彩。实际上,作者孜孜不倦地收藏各种元素样品的活动,完全可以视为纯粹的博物学活动。甚至在书中介绍的铱和锇哪个更重的知识,也让人感到具有博物学色彩——晶体的理论密度是由晶体结构和所含元素的原子量计算出来的。利用旧的原子量算出的金属铱的密度大于金属锇,因此铱长期被认为是密度最大的金属。但是,铱和锇的原子量后来被更新过,用新原子量算出的金属锇的密度要略大于金属铱。然而,尽管这两种元素的原子量已经被更新了很长时间,但很少有人想过去更新两种金属的理论密度值,导致过时的旧数值至今仍被广泛沿用。从现代科学的角度讲,这个错误无足轻重,因为铱和锇的理论密度没有多少实用价值。但是在博物学看来,属于同一范畴的不同事物是平等的,每一个事物都有获取它的全套特征信息的必要,从这个意义来说,知道铱和锇的理论密度是有很大价值的。 总之,我认为《视觉之旅》的特色是: 1. 图文并茂,图片和文字同等重要,缺一不可; 2. 用一个很新颖的方式(元素收藏)把有关元素的知识重新串联起来; 3. 在文字中融入了作者的大量个人经验,在需要介绍的元素知识的选择上也有很强的主观色彩; 4. 语言诙谐生动,进一步加强了全书的生活化色彩。毫无问题,这种风格的科普是中产阶级喜闻乐见的(其实元素收藏这一活动本身就具有中产阶级色彩,没有足够的钱是办不到的),这些特色对于我们的科普写作来说,也无疑有很大启发。刘华杰老师的《天涯芳草》一书之所以能够取得那么大的成功,我想主要原因也是因为在书中讲述了作者自己的故事,让人看了之后忍不住也想亲身去做类似的事情(比如尝一尝栝楼的瓤)。 掩卷之后,我几乎是立刻就想到了一个类似的植物科普的思路:按照最新的 APG III 被子植物分类系统,写一本介绍每个科的植物的书。书中自然有大量的植物照片,但文字并不是干巴巴地讲述怎么识别这些植物(一般读者其实并不关心这些知识,正如我不太关心稀土元素的用途一样),而是讲述我拍摄这些植物的经历。比如,无患子科的无患子,我是在第一次去南京的时候拍到的;蔷薇科的野蔷薇,我是在从植物所毕业后搬家到北京大学承泽园之后才确凿无疑地认识并拍到照片的;岩菖蒲科的岩菖蒲,则是在几年前的长白山之行中拍到的,而且我非常幸运,第一次上山顶就见到了天池,晚半个小时它就被云雾覆盖了……对于中国没有分布的那些科,有的可以在植物园中见到,有的必须要到国外拍摄,甚至可能要深入丛林,这些肯定也将给人留下深刻的记忆,成为值得纪念的人生经历。 这本书靠我一人之力恐怕难于在短时间内完成。如果有对这一计划感兴趣的朋友,我想也许我们可以组个团队! 2012.10.23
行星科学:月球上的水 (周春银 翻译;原文作者: David J. Lawrence ;资料来源: Nature Geoscience ) 《 Nature Geoscience 》原文链接 : http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n9/full/ngeo1251.html 第一份阿波罗样品显示地球的唯一卫星是完全干燥的。但现在的太空飞船数据以及改进后的分析技术则指示月球比先前所认为的要更富集挥发分、更复杂。 我们对月球上的水和其他挥发分组分的认识在过去的 10-15 年中发生了巨大的变化。随着先进的月球太空探测计划的进行以及用于研究月球样品的新实验分析技术的运用,“月球上的水”已经不再是一个矛盾事物( oxymoron )。 2011 年六月在休斯敦月球和行星研究所举行了“ A Wet vs. Dry Moon ”研讨会( 1 ),行星学家总结道,水和挥发分是曾经的也是现在的月壳环境中的重要成分。 大量的研究说明阿波罗月球样品几乎是不含有任何挥发分,从而使我们认为月球是在和地球的大碰撞中形成的( 2 )。这一撞击产生了巨大的热量,使得包括月球内部在内的挥发分蒸发消失在宇宙中。但是,即使月球在很早以前就失去了它自身的水,随时间推移它可能仍会从太阳系中的其他地方收集到水和氢。例如,冰彗星可能会将水带到月球,氢原子可能会通过太阳风沉积在月球表面。因此认为挥发分物质可能会在月球的永久阴影极区累积起来,在这些地方一般来说它们可以存储地质时期时间记录而没有太大的损失( 3 , 4 )。 红圈: Fresh craters ;绿圈: Anomalous craters Figure 1 | Water ice at the lunar north pole. The Moon has long been thought to be dry. Presentations at a meeting on A Wet vs. Dry Moon in Houston (1), along with earlier publications, now suggest that the body is much more rich in volatile elements than previously thought. In particular, abundant deposits of water ice have been identified in permanently shaded craters (green circles) at both lunar poles using radar reflection data. Measurements of circular polarization ratio (CPR) allow the water contents of the Moon’s polar regions to be estimated. Green arrows indicate example craters with high CPR that coincide with locations of enhanced hydrogen content determined by spatially deconvolved neutron data ( 18) . 关于氢在极区聚集的预测后来证明是正确的。 1998 年绕月探测飞船利用中子光谱仪测量了月球表面的元素丰度。这些绕月中子测量为氢的聚集提供了强有力的证据,并推测月球两极都有水存在( 5 )。随后来自 NASA 月球轨道探测器和印度太空研究署月球飞船一号的雷达反射数据显示,月球北极永久阴影坑中含有大约 6 亿立方米 的水( 6 ) ( Fig.1 ) 。当 2009 年 10 月阿特拉斯 5 号运载火箭的空 Centaur 段坠入 Cabeus 坑时, NASA 的 Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite ( LCROSS )在一个排出物质的细流中发现了许多挥发性物质,说明了月球南极挥发分的存在( 7 )。更惊讶地是,反射轨道测量已经在非极地地区发现了广泛的表面水和羟基( 8-10 )。 在分析这些新的轨道数据的同时,对阿波罗样品中挥发分物质的复查工作也已经展开。分析技术的改进使得对非常小的月球样品颗粒的高灵敏度同位素测量成为可能。这些分析表明,曾经被认为是干的的阿波罗样品中存在水( 11-15 )。此外,许多样品还保留了月球深部的信息,指示月幔可能比原先认为的含有更多的水。 这些新的数据产生了许多与月球形成、演化和目前环境相关的问题。例如,目前并不清楚月球上有多少水,尤其是在极地地区,何种因素控制着挥发分及其来源的分布。 在“ A Wet vs. Dry Moon ”研讨会( 1 )上,与月球上的水和挥发分相关的过程的认识观点非常复杂,还没有认识清楚。来自月球内部或者太阳系其他地方的水,可以在月球表面逐渐运移到永久阴影极区,经过数百万年时间存储在较冷的极地。来自极地的挥发分甚至可能会被运移到更靠近赤道的地方( W.M. Farrell, NASA Goddard )。至少,现在已经清楚了挥发分在月球表面和内部是不均匀分布的。 根据月球飞船一号的光谱测量得到的月球上水和羟基分布图显示它们的分布非常具有多样性。例如,月球表面的部分较新的坑显示很高的含水量,而附近部分较新的坑则显示没有。相似的结果在古老的坑中也被观测到。此外,广泛分布的暗色的玄武岩似乎比周围浅色的月球高地含水少,说明水含量可能与不同的地质区域有关( N.E. Petro, NASA Goddard )。 极地地区包含了大部分近地表月球水。对月球表面的改进地形测量显示,有比先前所认为的大多的极地永久阴影区存储水( E. Mazarico , MIT )。由 Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment 所进行的热发射和太阳能反射连续填图显示,在极地最冷的地区,温度可以低至 38 K 以下,主温度可能会骤降到 23 K 以下( D.A. Paige , UCLA )( 16 )。因此,极地可能会在永久阴影区保留大量的水,在足够冷的温度条件下在相当长的时间里将冰水存储起来。但是,厚厚的冰水沉积的增长在极冷条件下会受到抑制,由此会阻止冰水在某些地区的形成( B.G. Bills , NASA JPL )。 极地温度和光照的空间分布与前人的研究( 5 )和最近( W.V. Boynton, Univ. Arizona )( 17 )对极地氢分布的中子测量结果并没有明显的相关性;而且根据轨道中子数据和 LCROSS 数据所得到的氢聚聚程度也存在明显的不一致( R.C. Elphic , NASA Ames )。以上结果说明有现在的温度和光照以外的因素在影响着极地挥发分的空间分布。另外,在比中子数据更小的空间尺度上氢的分布可能是不均匀的( D.M. Hurley, JHUAPL )。尽管对这些环境因素和不均一性还不是十分清楚,但是它们可能包含着复杂的相互作用,这些作用发生在经历过临时的光照但仍具较低下地表温度的区域( D.A. Paige , UCLA ),以及相伴随的月球倾斜度的长期变化,它改变了月球的极地环境( B.G. Bills , NASA JPL )。 在月球表面所观测到的大部分水和挥发分很可能是来源于太阳系物质。但是,也有部分可能是来自月球本身在岩浆活动中从月球内部的脱气作用。例如,原始数据显示月球花岗岩颗粒可能存在水的蚀变( T. Monecke , CSM )。花岗岩颗粒显示了与地球上发现的经水蚀变过的花岗岩相类似的稀土元素地球化学特征,说明来自月球内部的水在花岗岩形成之后不久可能会蚀变花岗岩。比先前所认为的更多的挥发分在月球形成之后可能被保存在月幔中( A.E. Saal , Brown Univ. ),脱气产生的挥发分为月球极地的挥发分提供了另外一个来源( E.H. Hauri , CIW )。 月球内部可能含有大量挥发分,使得我们原来简单的通过大碰撞而形成月球的认识更加复杂化( G.J. Taylor , Univ. Hawaii ),大碰撞成因则认为月球是无水的。因此,关于月球大碰撞成因的新的研究需要重新估计月球上的挥发分含量( D.J. Stevenson,CIT )。 仍然有另外的方法来测量阿波罗月球样品的挥发分含量。令人感兴趣地是仍有可能会保留月球挥发分的密封的阿波罗样品容器和岩心( G.E. Lofgren , NASA JSC )。随着对月球挥发分研究兴趣的日益增长,应该制定计划和预算来确定用最好的保留挥发分组分相关信息的方法来研究这些珍贵的样品。在未来科学和人类探索中,月球会比 10-15 年前所认识到的含有更多的挥发分资源。因此,需要坚持不懈的努力来认识如何在未来探险中(包括机器人的和载人的)利用这些资源。 “ A Wet vs. Dry Moon ”研讨会再次表明,先进的测量将会带来令人激动和意外的发现。对于月球,我们现在发现它越来越复杂的环境和历史,其中包括重要组分水和挥发分。挥发分的作用我们现在还只是刚刚开始认识。 (参考文献见原文) Workshop on “ A Wet vs. Dry Moon ”网站地址: http://www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/volatiles2011/ 你可以直接下载 workshop 中的 Powerpoints :(如下 pdf 格式,另存为) PRESENTATIONS Exploration and Evaluation of Lunar Volatiles as Potential Resource within the ESA Lunar Lander M. Anand Mapping of Lunar Volatiles: A Challenging Problem J. Combe Thermal Analysis of Apollo Lunar Soils Provides Evidence for Water in Permaneltly Shadowed Areas B.L. Cooper Water in the Lunar Magma Ocean L. Elkins-Tanton Volatile Analyzer for Lunar Polar Mission E. Gibson LRO-LAMP Measurements of Far-Ultraviolet Albedos in Permanently Shadowed Regions R. Gladstone Solar-wind Production of OH and OD on Airless Bodies: Evidence from H + /D + Bombardment Experiments A.S. Ichimura Special, Unopened Lunar Samples: Another way to study Lunar Volatiles G. Lofgren Illumination Conditions of the Lunar Poles from LOLA Data E. Mazarico Isolation Effects on Lunar Hydrogen: Correlated Observations from LRO's LEND and LOLA Instruments T. McClanahan Lunar Robotic Exploration Objectives in the Next Decade J.B. Plescia The Impact of Lunar Volatiles on In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) G. Sanders A Consortium to Study "Special" Lunar Samples.Exploring Volatile Reservoirs on the Moon Now and Preparing for Future Lunar Exploration C.K. Shearer Volatile Element Transport in the Lunar Crust C.K. Shearer Water in the Moon:Implications for Lunar Formation and Geochemical Evolution J. Taylor Thermochemistry of Apatite and its Solid Solutions, Apatite-Melt Partitioning, and Implications for the Moon A.H. Treiman On Simulations of Adsorbed Water on the Moon R. Baragiola and C. Dukes
美国宇航局邀请公众观看激光射月(作者:孝文,来源:新浪科技)中有以下段落: 在戈达德航天中心,摄影师瓦德·希斯勒拍摄了向月球发射激光的照片。在激光测距设施,工程师每秒钟发射28次激光,穿行距离达到近25万英里(约合40公里),抵达小型货车大小的月球勘测轨道器。这个绕月球轨道运行的轨道器每小时移动距离达到近3600英里(约合5793公里)。 对应原文为 At the Laser Ranging Facility, engineers fire a laser 28 times per second across nearly 250,000 miles at the minivan-sized Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter , a spacecraft moving at nearly 3,600 miles per hour as it orbits the moon. 摄影师的图很精美。可惜文字说明中“25万英里(约合40公里),”让明眼读者发现,缺了一万字。 添加了那个万字,才妥当。新浪科技的同行们,在添加注释(都是英里这个单位惹的祸),粗心大意了。 原文标题中的NASA Fires Twin Lasers at the Moon,“ 孪生激光器”在翻译后没有体现出来, 翻译后强调的是 “ 邀请公众观看”,也许是翻译者的良苦用心所在吧? 原文标题中的snapshot,有人翻译为抽点,的确体现了脉冲激光测距的 特点,不是连续的, 比如“每秒钟发射28次激光”。
这两天,在天之文天文论坛 ( http://bbs.astron.ac.cn ) 上,关于月亮最大最圆问题掀起了激烈的讨论,不同的观点针锋相对,十分精彩。 鉴于很多人认为科普为了贴近老百姓,可以不要太强调内容的正确性,科普不同于科学,不要那么太严谨之类的观点。我觉得很有必要强调科学的本质特征。 我迅速在论坛发了一个名为 重要补充:严谨本身就是科学的重要组成部分!的帖子,阐述这个观念。在我看来,这个观念非常重要,因为很多即使搞科普的人也未必正确理解,很多人都把科普等同于普及科学知识了。 以下是在辩论过程中涌现出来的一些观点,我觉得对科普工作是有益的,摘录如下、立此存照: l 我反复倡导的一个观点就是: 科普 不仅仅是普及知识,科普更重要的是倡导科学思维和科学精神!严谨、求实,本身就是科学精神的重要组成部分。绝对不能为了吸引眼球而抛弃科学的本性! 科普既然是普及科学,当然包括普及科学的严谨求实的精神。所谓科学应该严谨,科普没必要严谨实在很荒唐。 我们当然需要既严谨又风趣的文章,但是绝对不能为了有趣而抛弃严谨。 科普当然需要受众面越大越好,但是做科普的根本目的是为了普及科学,而不仅仅是吸引人注意。为了吸引人而背离科学,他吸引的人再多,也不是科普! 所以需要提醒所有的科普人注意:做科普,不能忘本! l 科学素质绝对不只是科学知识!我甚至可以说有很多科学院里的教授都缺少科学素质,别看他们科学知识不少,科学素质未必高,比如近期不断被揭露的弄虚作假,甚至还有人为 伪科学 鸣不平等现象,都是这种表现。 l 我们当然要占领市场,当然要抢占话语权,科普也当然要更贴近老百姓,更风趣,这些都没有错! 问题是我们在做这些努力的时候不能抛弃根本的东西。要贴近老百姓,需要用智慧,而不是搏出位。 l 有人拿美国 NASA 的文章( Biggest Full Moon of the Year 12.09.2008 http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/09dec_fullmoon.htm )来反驳我,说美国 NASA 也热衷于此。所幸读过之后,并非那么回事,兹摘取其中一段: Okay, the Moon is 14% bigger, but can you actually tell the difference? It's tricky. There are no rulers floating in the sky to measure lunar diameters. Hanging high overhead with no reference points to provide a sense of scale, one full Moon looks much like any other. 很清楚,此文作者已经明明白白地告诉公众:这种差别只是一个 tricky (狡猾的,欺骗的),实际上满月与其它月份看起来还是一样的。 这就是科学的态度!作者只是采用了一种风趣的写法,但在文中已经把科学道理讲清楚了,可是我们的报道呢?只说最大最圆,不说实际上看不到,这就是误导,就是差别! l 昨天新华网贴出了一张来自紫金山天文台的最大最圆报道图,又将 53 年一遇改成了 35 年一遇,真真让人啼笑皆非,一会儿 53 年,一会儿 35 年,你让人听谁的啊?好在此图中还加了一句标注仅凭肉眼实际上是不易察觉的,这种加注在过去多年是从来没有过的,今年这个炒作刚起来的时候也是没有的,现在却羞羞答答地出现了,我相信这就是这两天舆论批判的成果。 l 顺便说一下,紫金山天文台见诸报端的众多天象报道和 UFO 报道,其实都并不代表紫金山天文台的观点,而只是该台一名退休研究员个人的观点,里面不乏荒谬之处(连皓月顶空照都可以被他说成是壮丽天象,难得一见!),但是紫金山天文台竟然没人管,实在令人遗憾。
(按照《著作权法》的规定,以摄影方法创作的,1959年12月31日以前首次发表的作品,已进入公有领域。) 由于潮汐锁定,月球永远以一面朝向地球,千百年以来,没有人看过月球的背面。望远镜的发明虽然大大拓展了人们的视野,但是对于解决这个问题的帮助是极其微小的。 图:月球2号携带的苏联国徽 由于月球是沿椭圆轨道围绕地球公转,因此在远地点附近转得慢些,而月球自转速度几乎是等速的,因此存在着所谓月球天平动现象,因此可以看到少量月球背面的边缘。因此,地基望远镜观测只覆盖了55%的月球表面。 如果不是航天术的发明,想看一看月球背面有什么的这个并不奢侈的愿望,只能停留在痴心梦想上。 既然观测不到的地方,难免想象力就开始填补人类认知的饥渴,其中关于月球背面的最夸张的理论是:那里和月球的正面截然不同,有冰川,甚至有森林,还有的认为有高等智慧生物。(最近出了本书《外星人就在月球背面》) 1957年10月,第一个航天器飞出大气层,不久后,人们就开始考虑使用初试啼声的航天术来解决这个千古难题。 在1959年,月球三号之前,苏联已经发射了2颗月球探测器(当然也命名为月球1,2号),第一个与月球相距约6000千米飞越,没能击中月球,第二个是硬着陆器,在月球正面撞得粉碎之前,她携带的磁强计和离子探测包发回了关于月球磁场和辐射带的信息。结果证明:月球几乎没有磁场,也没有像地球一样的辐射带。同时,月球二号还把几枚特殊合金制成的苏联镀金国徽带上,一并撞向月球,成为历史上首次到达另一个天体的人造制品。60年代初,赫鲁晓夫曾经在后续的会议上,把那些徽章的复制品赠送给美国领导人,以此炫耀苏联科学技术的成就。(当然,若干年后,美国人把阿波罗计划采集的月岩样品作为国礼回敬给了苏联人) 图:月球2号(Image credit: www.mentallandscape.com ) 到了1959年的10月,这一轮太空竞赛中苏联人的领先势头达到了高潮,月球3号是真正意义上的行星探测器鼻祖,它的目的非常明确,就是要获取前人从未看到过的月球背面的照片。 那个时代,间谍卫星尚处于襁褓中,根本还没有CCD等成像器件,基于光电倍增管技术的电视-无线电摄影系统分辨率和帧数也很低,在飞越月球背面时有限的时间里拍不了几张照片。磁记录设备庞大、笨重,容量奇小,计算机至少远未小型化,根本无法由卫星搭载。不知道是怎么完成行星际探测任务的。 他们采用了一个今天看起来很原始的设计,照片由机械相机拍摄,拍摄后记录在银盐胶卷上,然后卫星上搭载了一套胶卷自动冲洗设备(!),照片拍摄完成后自动完成显影-定影操作。当卫星飞过月球后,一套设计好的偏心率很大的轨道保证它又逐渐飞向地球,在那几天时间里,基于光电倍增管的扫描-电视设备将可以把照片逐幅扫描,同时发回地面模拟的电子信号,地面接收下来就可以再现照片。 图:月球3号(Image credit: www.mentallandscape.com ) 1959年10月4日,改进型的SS-6洲际导弹把月球3号送上太空,发射的弹道飞越北极,载荷被加速到进入奔月轨道的入口速度,随后,Blok-E逃逸级由无线电信号遥控关闭。开始的无线电遥测数据表面,月球3号的无线电信号强度只及设计的一半大小,而内部的温度在缓慢升高。于是这个卫星的自旋轴被调整了角度(这是颗自旋稳定的卫星),并有部分仪器被关闭,温度终于又降了下来,从40℃降低到大概30℃.在距离月球60000~70000千米的时候,由喷气喷嘴构成执行部件的姿态控制系统打开,卫星的自旋停止。这个卫星的屁股装有一个太阳敏感器,根据它的引导,姿态控制系统把卫星的屁股正对着太阳。这样,由于当时正好是月朔,月球和太阳的相位角差不多正好为180度。卫星的头就能大体上正确的指向月球,这也为照相机指明了方向。 图:月球3号传回的月背照片 10月6日14:16(世界时,以下均同),月球3号从月球南极附近6200千米左右飞过,月球和地球共同的引力作用下,探测器轨迹向北,在这段飞行过程中,10月7日,探测器头部的太阳能电池感应到了月球背面反射的太阳光,此时照相机开始工作,第一张照片是10月7日03:30拍摄的,此时距离月球表面63500千米,最后一张照片是40分钟后拍摄的,距月球为66700千米。照片拍摄完成后,探测器又恢复到自旋工作状态,在地球和月球共同的引力作用下,探测器飞越月球北极并折返向地球。实际上此时它已经成为一个大椭圆轨道绕地球飞行的人造卫星。 图:月球3号传回的月背照片 直到10月18日,即月球3号第二次绕地球一圈,来到地球近地点附近时,照片的无线电传输才告完成。卫星拍摄了月球的29张照片,实际上传输成功回地球的只有17张,多半无线电干扰严重,噪音很多,分辨率很差。但是,这些照片覆盖了月球背面70%的区域,一级地形还是清晰可辨的,有着200多年历史的俄罗斯Pulkovo天文台据此制作了月球背面的地质图,并满怀信心地给月球背面的一连串地名标记上苏联式的名字:莫斯科海、理想海、齐奥尔科夫斯基环形山。 图:月球3号传回的月背照片 事情已经很清楚了,月球背面没有什么外星人,没有巨大冰海洋,冰川,跟月球正面一样,到处是陨坑接着陨坑。尽管这样,人类第一次的行星际探测(月球既是地球的天然卫星,同时在某种意义上说,由于地月系公共质心不位于地核,而位于地幔中,可称得上是一个准双行星系统)大获成功。人类不仅可以小心翼翼的穿过大气层,而且可以探索整个太阳系。那几张模糊的照片,作为时代的见证,理当保存在人类历史的记忆中。 后记,航天竞赛的另一方。 苏联在航天方面部署早,投入大,又有科罗廖夫那样的天才,初期占据了比美国更大的优势,不仅发射的第一颗人造卫星,拍回了第一幅月球背面照片,1961年4月12日,加加林还成为进入太空第一人。而从1958年起美国人就想探测月球,先锋0,1,2,P1,P3五个探测器先后发射,但竟然没有任何一个取得成功的。 不过,美国优秀的组织管理能力,大量的人才和雄厚的物质基础一旦动员起来,往往能后来居上,这部分的要归功于美国文化中乐观向上,不屈不挠和务实求真的精神。1961年5月,在苏联又取得首次载人航天的空间竞赛胜利的背景下,肯尼迪发表了著名的演说,We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too. 正是这段讲话捶响了阿波罗计划的战鼓,以往的历史告诉我们,往往是这样的情况,美国落后了,美国栽倒了,这样的讯息反倒更激发了美国人抛弃平时的内部纷争,团结一心,付出巨大的努力把领先优势夺过来。阿波罗计划直接耗资255亿美元(1961~1972),相当于现在的3000多亿美元,据称参与的包括2万多家企业、200多所大学、80多个研究机构,参与研制工作的总人数超过40万。最终一举成功,谁是航天老大,世界顶尖科技国,只要望望天上的月亮,到目前为止,就再没有争议。
最近,中国航天报、人民网等媒体发表了 平劲松等人的研究成果,称嫦娥1号绕月探测器的数据,在月表发现了新的地形特征,报道是这样说的: 自古以来,我国民间流传着嫦娥奔月、吴刚伐桂、玉兔捣药等许多关于月亮的动人神话故事。我国天文学家通过对2008年公布的嫦娥一号探测器高精度月球地形模型进行深入研究,成功发现了月球正面的玉兔火山、吴刚撞击坑以及月球背面的撞击盆地。 然而,天体地名的命名并非像地名那样随心所欲,既然中国加入了《和平利用外层空间公约》,不声明对地外天体拥有主权,那么也就不可能像给地名换个名字那样,随心所欲的命名月球上的地名。 目前,只有国际天文协会负责掌管行星地形特征的命名,中国是国际天文协会的会员国,我不清楚为什么不遵守相关的规定,将拟订的地名命名上报行星系统命名学工作组 IAU Working Group for Planetary System Nomenclature,得到批准,被世界所公认后,再公布这些地形特征的名称。当然,在命名前,还需要得到国际同行对这些地形是否真实的严格的检验和再次证认。 月球上发现了新的地形特征,将促进人类对月球的认识。但是我希望这是件严肃的科学工作,而不是为了为了关起门来提供爱国主义素材,我们希望是得到世界承认的名称,而不是仅仅在本土有效的名称。我觉得在国际承认前就这样大张旗鼓的宣传是非常不负责任的。如果未来这两处地形,由于命名规范的原因,不能被叫做玉兔、吴刚,那么谁在补偿被误导了的公众呢?
长年以来,科学家一直在关注月球表面到底有没有冰的存在。这个问题不仅仅是学术兴趣,因为如果确实有冰的存在,我们就可以利用它产生氧气和氢气。氧气可以用来呼吸,氢气可以为宇宙飞船提供燃料。 由于月球几乎全部暴露在日光之下,因此冰块可能在极少的永久阴影区靠近两极的火山口内壁或者表面上存在。其中之一就是Shackleton 山口,它直径大约有13英里,深达2.5英里。 日本的科学家曾经一度怀疑这个山口内有水,但是经过日本空间探测局科学家Junichi Haruyama 根据《科学》公布的照片分析得出结论:那些永久阴影区的确很冷,足够保存冰层,但是种种迹象表明,那里只有岩石,如果有冰的话,也只能是非常少,而且和岩石结合的了。 (信息来源: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/28/science/space/28obmoon.html?r=1ref=scienceoref=slogin ) For years, scientists have wondered whether there might be water ice on the Moons surface. The question is of more than academic interest, because ice could be used by a future Moon base to produce oxygen to breathe and hydrogen to fuel spacecraft. Since almost all of the Moon is exposed to sunlight, ice could exist only in the few areas that are in permanent shadow the inside walls and floors of certain craters near the poles. One candidate is Shackleton crater, which is about 13 miles in diameter and 2.5 miles deep. But images taken by a Japanese spacecraft throw hot water on the idea that Shackleton might have surface ice. Since parts of the crater are in permanent shadow, the images relied for illumination on sunlight glancing off the walls on the opposite side. In an analysis of the images published in Science, Junichi Haruyama of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency and colleagues report that the area is certainly cold enough to harbor ice, but that the reflectance indicates there is only soil on the surface. If ice does exist there, they say, it is probably mixed in small concentrations with the soil. 上一篇:钱永健获奖,真正的奠基人却在科学之外 http://www.scijour.net/m/user_content.aspx?id=203484 下一篇:所谓中国人权斗士获欧洲萨哈罗夫奖 http://blog.sciencenet.cn/m/user_content.aspx?id=203575