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陆地生物多样性的挽救需要综合策略
2020-09-12 22:37

奥地利国际应用系统分析研究所David Leclère、Michael Obersteiner等研究人员合作表明,陆地生物多样性的挽救需要综合策略。该项研究成果于2020年9月10日在线发表在《自然》杂志上。

研究人员使用土地利用和生物多样性模型的集合来评估人类是否以及如何改变因栖息地转变而造成的陆地生物多样性的下降,这是对生物多样性的主要威胁。研究人员表明,与更广泛的可持续发展议程相一致但有空前的野心与协调,立即作出的努力可以使不断增长的人口提供粮食,同时扭转由生境转变引起的全球陆地生物多样性趋势。
 
如果决定增加在保护区管理下的土地面积,恢复退化的土地并推广景观一级的保护规划,那么到二十一世纪中叶,各个模型的平均生境转换生物多样性趋势可能平均为正(置信区间2042–2061年),但并非所有型号都如此。粮食价格可能会上涨,而且平均而言,无法避免未来生物多样性损失的近一半(置信区间为34%至50%)。
 
但是,另外解决土地利用变化的驱动因素可以避免与负担得起的粮食供应发生冲突,并减少粮食供应系统对环境的影响。通过进一步的可持续集约化和贸易、减少食物浪费以及更多以植物为基础的人类饮食,到2050年,几乎所有模型都避免了三分之二的未来生物多样性丧失,并且从栖息地转换产生的生物多样性趋势得以逆转。
 
尽管在几个生物多样性丰富的地区限制进一步的损失仍然是挑战,并且必须应对其他威胁(例如气候变化)来真正扭转生物多样性的下降,但这些结果表明,雄心勃勃的保护工作和粮食系统转型对于有效的2020年后生物多样性战略至关重要。
 
据悉,目前需要加大努力以防止进一步破坏陆地生物多样性及其提供的生态系统服务。雄心勃勃的目标被提出,例如扭转生物多样性的下降趋势。然而,养活不断增长的人口将对此是一个挑战。
 
附:英文原文

Title: Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy

Author: David Leclre, Michael Obersteiner, Mike Barrett, Stuart H. M. Butchart, Abhishek Chaudhary, Adriana De Palma, Fabrice A. J. DeClerck, Moreno Di Marco, Jonathan C. Doelman, Martina Drauer, Robin Freeman, Michael Harfoot, Tomoko Hasegawa, Stefanie Hellweg, Jelle P. Hilbers, Samantha L. L. Hill, Florian Humpender, Nancy Jennings, Tams Krisztin, Georgina M. Mace, Haruka Ohashi, Alexander Popp, Andy Purvis, Aafke M. Schipper, Andrzej Tabeau, Hugo Valin, Hans van Meijl, Willem-Jan van Zeist, Piero Visconti, Rob Alkemade, Rosamunde Almond, Gill Bunting, Neil D. Burgess, Sarah E. Cornell, Fulvio Di Fulvio, Simon Ferrier, Steffen Fritz, Shinichiro Fujimori, Monique Grooten, Thomas Harwood, Petr Havlk, Mario Herrero, Andrew J. Hoskins, Martin Jung, Tom Kram, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Tetsuya Matsui, Carsten Meyer, Deon Nel, Tim Newbold, Guido Schmidt-Traub, Elke Stehfest, Bernardo B. N. Strassburg, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Chris Ware, James E. M. Watson, Wenchao Wu, Lucy Young

Issue&Volume: 2020-09-10

Abstract: Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it  provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042–2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34–50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats—such as climate change—must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2705-y

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2705-y

Nature:《自然》,创刊于1869年。隶属于施普林格·自然出版集团,最新IF:43.07
官方网址:http://www.nature.com/
投稿链接:http://www.nature.com/authors/submit_manuscript.html


本期文章:《自然》:Online/在线发表

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