小柯机器人

研究揭示SARS-CoV-2的特定年龄死亡率和免疫模式
2020-11-05 13:30

英国剑桥大学Henrik Salje等研究人员合作报道了SARS-CoV-2的特定年龄死亡率和免疫模式。相关论文于2020年11月2日在线发表于国际学术期刊《自然》。

研究人员使用来自45个国家/地区的特定年龄COVID-19死亡数据和22个血清阳性率研究的结果来调查了多个国家/地区感染和死亡模式的一致性。研究人员发现,在不同背景下,年龄较低人群(<65岁)中的死亡年龄分布非常一致,并证明了该数据如何对已感染人口比例进行可靠估计。
 
研究人员估计,感染致命率(IFR)在5-9岁之间最低,而在30岁以上的人群中,与年龄呈对数线性增长。疗养院中的人口年龄结构和不同负担解释了国家之间感染-死亡率的异质性,但不是全部。在分析的45个国家中,研究人员估计到2020年9月1日这些人口中约有5%被感染,许多拉丁美洲国家可能发生了更高的传播。这个简单的建模框架可以帮助各国评估大流行的进程,并可以在具有可靠特定年龄死亡数据的地方使用。
 
据介绍,现有数据的不一致使得估算SARS-CoV-2流行的规模和感染严重性变得困难。COVID-19死亡人数通常被用作流行病规模的关键指标,但观察到的死亡人数仅占所有感染病例的一小部分。此外,疗养院的负担不均,老年患者的死亡报告也不一,这可能会妨碍各国之间对基本传播水平和死亡率的直接比较。
 
附:英文原文

Title: Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2

Author: Megan ODriscoll, Gabriel Ribeiro Dos Santos, Lin Wang, Derek A. T. Cummings, Andrew S. Azman, Juliette Paireau, Arnaud Fontanet, Simon Cauchemez, Henrik Salje

Issue&Volume: 2020-11-02

Abstract: Estimating the size and infection severity of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic is made challenging by inconsistencies in available data. The number of COVID-19 deaths is often used as a key indicator for the epidemic size, but observed deaths represent only a minority of all infections1,2. Additionally, the heterogeneous burden in nursing homes and variable reporting of deaths in elderly individuals can hamper direct comparisons across countries of the underlying level of transmission and mortality rates3. Here we use age-specific COVID-19 death data from 45 countries and the results of 22 seroprevalence studies to investigate the consistency of infection and fatality patterns across multiple countries. We find that the age distribution of deaths in younger age groups (<65 years) is very consistent across different settings and demonstrate how this data can provide robust estimates of the share of the population that has been infected. We estimate that the infection-to-fatality ratio (IFR) is lowest among 5-9 years old, with a log-linear increase by age among individuals older than 30 years. Population age-structures and heterogeneous burdens in nursing homes explain some but not all of the heterogeneity between countries in infection-fatality ratios. Among the 45 countries included in our analysis, we estimate approximately 5% of these populations had been infected by the 1st of September 2020, with much higher transmission likely to have occurred in a number of Latin American countries. This simple modelling framework can help countries assess the progression of the pandemic and can be applied wherever reliable age-specific death data exists.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2918-0

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2918-0

Nature:《自然》,创刊于1869年。隶属于施普林格·自然出版集团,最新IF:43.07
官方网址:http://www.nature.com/
投稿链接:http://www.nature.com/authors/submit_manuscript.html


本期文章:《自然》:Online/在线发表

分享到:

0