美国约翰霍普金斯大学布隆伯格公共卫生学院Anthony D So团队分析了全球可获取新冠病毒疫苗的储备。2020年12月15日，该研究发表在《英国医学杂志》上。
为了分析主要制造商向受援国家提供的Covid-19疫苗上市前的采购承诺，研究组根据世界卫生组织的covid-19候选疫苗概况草案，以及向美国证券交易委员会披露的公司信息、公司和基金会的新闻稿、政府新闻稿以及媒体报道等进行了一项横断面分析。
研究组筛选出2020年11月15日之前公开宣布covid-19疫苗上市前的购买承诺。主要观察指标为针对covid-19疫苗候选产品的售前购买承诺，每疗程的价格，疫苗平台，研发阶段以及采购代理和受赠国。
截至2020年11月15日，多个国家/地区已做出承诺，出售来自13个疫苗生产商的covid-19疫苗，总额达74.8亿剂，或37.6亿疗程。这些疫苗中将有一半以上（51％）流向占世界人口14％的高收入国家。
美国储备了8亿剂，其患病人数占全球所有新冠肺炎病例（1102万例）的五分之一，而日本、澳大利亚和加拿大共储备了10亿多剂，但三国的患病人数还不到全球新冠肺炎病例（45万例）的1%。
如果这些候选疫苗都能成功进行规模化生产，那么到2021年底，预计总制造能力将达到59.6亿疗程。这些制造商提供的多出40％（或23.4亿）的疫苗疗程可能会留给中低收入国家，若高收入国家选择扩大储备规模，则可能会减少；若高收入国家分享他们购买的疫苗，则可能会增加。
这些疫苗的价格相差十倍以上，从每疗程6美元到最高每疗程74美元不等。COVAX机构是世界卫生组织“使用COVID-19工具（ACT）加速器”的疫苗支柱，除美国和俄罗斯外，全球各国均广泛参与，目前已获得至少5亿剂或2.5亿疗程的资金，预计在2021年底前达到20亿剂目标的一半，以支持协调全球均可获得covid-19疫苗。
这项研究概述了高收入国家如何确保将来获得covid-19疫苗的供应，但世界其他地区的获取尚不明确。政府和制造商应提高透明度和问责制，为公平分配covid-19疫苗提供急需的保证。
附：英文原文
Title: Reserving coronavirus disease 2019 vaccines for global access: cross sectional analysis
Author: Anthony D So, Joshua Woo
Issue&Volume: 2020/12/15
Abstract:
Objective To analyze the premarket purchase commitments for coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) vaccines from leading manufacturers to recipient countries.
Design Cross sectional analysis.
Data sources World Health Organization’s draft landscape of covid-19 candidate vaccines, along with company disclosures to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, company and foundation press releases, government press releases, and media reports.
Eligibility criteria and data analysis Premarket purchase commitments for covid-19 vaccines, publicly announced by 15 November 2020.
Main outcome measures Premarket purchase commitments for covid-19 vaccine candidates and price per course, vaccine platform, and stage of research and development, as well as procurement agent and recipient country.
Results As of 15 November 2020, several countries have made premarket purchase commitments totaling 7.48 billion doses, or 3.76 billion courses, of covid-19 vaccines from 13 vaccine manufacturers. Just over half (51%) of these doses will go to high income countries, which represent 14% of the world’s population. The US has reserved 800 million doses but accounts for a fifth of all covid-19 cases globally (11.02 million cases), whereas Japan, Australia, and Canada have collectively reserved more than one billion doses but do not account for even 1% of current global covid-19 cases globally (0.45 million cases). If these vaccine candidates were all successfully scaled, the total projected manufacturing capacity would be 5.96 billion courses by the end of 2021. Up to 40% (or 2.34 billion) of vaccine courses from these manufacturers might potentially remain for low and middle income countries–less if high income countries exercise scale-up options and more if high income countries share what they have procured. Prices for these vaccines vary by more than 10-fold, from $6.00 (￡4.50; €4.90) per course to as high as $74 per course. With broad country participation apart from the US and Russia, the COVAX Facility—the vaccines pillar of the World Health Organization’s Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator—has secured at least 500 million doses, or 250 million courses, and financing for half of the targeted two billion doses by the end of 2021 in efforts to support globally coordinated access to covid-19 vaccines.
Conclusions This study provides an overview of how high income countries have secured future supplies of covid-19 vaccines but that access for the rest of the world is uncertain. Governments and manufacturers might provide much needed assurances for equitable allocation of covid-19 vaccines through greater transparency and accountability over these arrangements.
DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m4750
Source: https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4750
BMJ-British Medical Journal:《英国医学杂志》，创刊于1840年。隶属于BMJ出版集团，最新IF：93.333
官方网址：http://www.bmj.com/
投稿链接：https://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/bmj
本期文章：《英国医学杂志》：Online/在线发表
