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英国剑桥大学临床医学院Jean Adams团队研究了与英国软饮料工业税相关的英国家庭软饮料购买的变化。2021年3月10日，该研究发表在《英国医学杂志》上。

为了确定英国软饮料工业税（SDIL）实施一年后，家庭购买饮料和糖的变化，2014年3月至2019年3月，研究组招募每周向市场研究公司报告购买情况的家庭小组成员（平均每周参与者人数n=22 183），进行了一项受控中断时间序列分析。

对软饮料制造商征收两种级别的税，2016年3月宣布，2018年4月实施。含糖≥8 g/100mL（高级）的饮料按0.24英镑/L征税，含糖5-8 g/100mL（低级）的饮料按0.18英镑/L征税，含糖<5 g/100mL的饮料不征税。主要观察指标为与SDIL公布前的趋势相比，SDIL实施一年后，每个家庭每周购买的软饮料类别、所有软饮料组合、酒精和糖的量、以及糖量的绝对和相对差异。

2019年3月，与公布前趋势的反事实估计值相比，高征税级别饮料的购买量每户每周减少155 mL，相当于减少了44.3%，这些饮料中的糖购买量减少了18.0 g，相当于减少了45.9%。低征税级别饮料的购买量每户每周减少177.3 mL，即减少了85.9%，这些饮料中的糖分减少了12.5 g，相当于减少了86.2%。尽管不征税饮料的购买量总体没变化，但每户家庭每周购买的糖增加了15.3 g，相当于增加了166.4%。当所有软饮料合并分析后，购买的饮料量没有变化，但糖量减少了29.5 g，相当于减少了9.8%。糖和酒精饮料的购买量没有变化。

研究结果表明，与SDIL公布前的趋势相比，实施一年后，软饮料的购买量没有变化。这些饮料中的糖含量每户每周减少30 g，即减少了10%，相当于每人每周少喝一份250mL的低档饮料。这表明SDIL可能有益于公众健康，同时不损害工业。

附：英文原文

Title: Changes in soft drinks purchased by British households associated with the UK soft drinks industry levy: controlled interrupted time series analysis

Author: David Pell, Oliver Mytton, Tarra L Penney, Adam Briggs, Steven Cummins, Catrin Penn-Jones, Mike Rayner, Harry Rutter, Peter Scarborough, Stephen J Sharp, Richard D Smith, Martin White, Jean Adams

Issue&Volume: 2021/03/10

Abstract:

Objective To determine changes in household purchases of drinks and confectionery one year after implementation of the UK soft drinks industry levy (SDIL).

Design Controlled interrupted time series analysis.

Participants Members of a panel of households reporting their purchasing on a weekly basis to a market research company (average weekly number of participants n=22183), March 2014 to March 2019.

Intervention A two tiered tax levied on manufacturers of soft drinks, announced in March 2016 and implemented in April 2018. Drinks with ≥8 g sugar/100 mL (high tier) are taxed at ￡0.24/L and drinks with ≥5 to <8 g sugar/100 mL (low tier) are taxed at ￡0.18/L. Drinks with <5 g sugar/100 mL (no levy) are not taxed.

Main outcome measures Absolute and relative differences in the volume of, and amount of sugar in, soft drinks categories, all soft drinks combined, alcohol, and confectionery purchased per household per week one year after implementation of the SDIL compared with trends before the announcement of the SDIL.

Results In March 2019, compared with the counterfactual estimated from pre-announcement trends, purchased volume of drinks in the high levy tier decreased by 155 mL (95% confidence interval 240.5 to 69.5 mL) per household per week, equivalent to 44.3% (95% confidence interval 59.9% to 28.7%), and sugar purchased in these drinks decreased by 18.0 g (95% confidence interval 32.3 to 3.6 g), or 45.9% (68.8% to 22.9%). Purchases of low tier drinks decreased by 177.3 mL (225.3 to 129.3 mL) per household per week, or 85.9% (95.1% to 76.7%), with a 12.5 g (15.4 to 9.5 g) reduction in sugar in these drinks, equivalent to 86.2% (94.2% to 78.1%). Despite no overall change in volume of no levy drinks purchased, there was an increase in sugar purchased of 15.3 g (12.6 to 17.9 g) per household per week, equivalent to 166.4% (94.2% to 238.5%). When all soft drinks were combined, the volume of drinks purchased did not change, but sugar decreased by 29.5 g (55.8 to 3.1 g), or 9.8% (17.9% to 1.8%). Purchases of confectionery and alcoholic drinks did not change.

Conclusions Compared with trends before the SDIL was announced, one year after implementation, the volume of soft drinks purchased did not change. The amount of sugar in those drinks was 30 g, or 10%, lower per household per week—equivalent to one 250 mL serving of a low tier drink per person per week. The SDIL might benefit public health without harming industry.

DOI: 10.1136/bmj.n254

Source: https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n254

BMJ-British Medical Journal:《英国医学杂志》，创刊于1840年。隶属于BMJ出版集团，最新IF：93.333
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