《世界粮食与农业--过去50年的教训》

二十世纪五十年代

关键词：复苏，工业化，发展计划，粮食自足,过剩，重新评价非洲

摘译自（FAO）出版的《THE STATE  OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 2000》一书

发展中国家缺乏提高人民生活水平的资源和技术

不均衡的复苏和两极分化

二十世纪五十年代表现为政治和经济的两极分化现象逐渐加大。“冷战”和意识形态的对抗使国际合作更为困难，同时，贫穷国家和富裕国家的差距及社会阶层的贫富悬殊差距拉大。在西欧各国，“马歇尔计划”和重建活动使受战争影响的国家经济迅速复苏，而发展中国家的经济则受到农业市场不稳定、外汇极端短缺的影响，伴随着新的独裁政治制度的建立而出现极为严重的问题，这在亚洲表现尤为突出。在《粮食与农业状况》中也反复提到过贫富差距日益加大的问题，同时还强调了农业发展在改善一个国家或一个社会的经济状况中的重要性。如果发展中国家要显著地提高人民的生活水平，其粮食生产增长速度应比人口增长率高1-2%。而这种粮食产出的增长远远超出了很多发展中国家的资源承载力和技术水平。

 工业化 

由工业驱动经济增长是很多拉美国家发展战略的基础，成为二十世纪五十年代传统的发展范例。因此，“偏爱城区歧视农业”的现象也就有了市场。有通过半国营性质的销售部广泛地实行对农业的直接歧视，在农民出售农产品的价格和农产品的实际市场价格之间形成了价格差；也有通过货币过分升值以压低出口农产品的价格和进口代替品的价格，以及采取保护工业品和给予工业进口代替品以优惠从而在降低农产品价格的同时提高非农产品的价格，间接歧视农业。

对工业的偏爱是基于这样一种理论：一种经济要发展，它必须快速增长，要快速增长就只有实行工业化。在《粮食与农业状况》的早期报道中就有大量的工业生产发展的内容，在二十世纪五十年代的各期中对这一问题还单独列为一个章节。工业化因其对收入增长的积极影响而被视为“农产品有效购买力的基本因素”。当时还认为，由于工业化涉及到城镇居民的搬迁，因此有必要使粮价保持在较低的水平以平息城市中的社会问题。对肥料和农用机械等农业投入实行补贴以及给与农业信贷优惠皆在补偿农业，但事实上这些措施使大的商业农场得到的好处比从事小规模农业生产的农民得到的好处多。对城市消费者有利的“低价粮食”政策极大地打击了农业生产的积极性。而这种政策在很多国家执行了很多年，直到二十世纪八十年代才因结构调整而废止。

 发展计划 

由于二十世纪三十年代早期的大萧条和随后需求的下滑，导致了要求国家在经济和市场管理方面进行更大的干预的呼声日益强烈，因此当时的发展战略要求国家在投入和产出的营销及生产和资源分配的计划方面发挥更大的作用。《粮食与农业状况》广泛地报道了农业规划和计划的发展，尤其突出报道了某些亚洲国家在实现这种发展战略方面所起的先锋作用方面的经验。当时大家感觉到只有对农业和经济实施公共计划和由国家出资才能打破低收入、低消费、生产停滞的怪圈。典型的计划涉及生产目标的确定和投资的规划，甚至还涉及到土地改良、灌溉系统的修建和投入等详细的方案。

印度被示为一个范例，该国在自助的基础上对其各种经济的综合发展进行了规划，但并没有对经济进行过多的严格控制，而是从战略的角度进行国家控制以便保证经济发展模式与印度第一个五年计划（1950/51-1955/56）的目标一致。该五年计划中确定了粮食生产和纤维产品的生产由集体出资，旨在使消费水平恢复到二战前的水平，将储蓄用于投资，从而促进经济进一步的发展。

而另一个实行国家计划与干预的极端例子则是中国。中国的第一个五年计划（1953-1957）被认为是成功的，据报道，政府在农业和工业计划方面投资以后使GDP增长了12%。1958年又引入了一套新的发展战略，即“大跃进”，以便巩固和重组乡村农业和工业，这个新的战略强调在农村采用新技术，还强调在发展农业的同时发展更多的农村轻工业，同时还涉及消除农村私有财产，强制合并农场，收归集体所有。1959的《粮食与农业发展状况》报道，截止1958年底，中国已有74万多个农业合作社转化为26000个人民公社，每一个人民公社包括2000个家庭，他们的工作划分为农业生产和轻工业生产两部分。

但是，尽管1957-1958年间中国的生产显著增长，但随后都出现了大的问题。人民公社的生产汇报数据往往有水分，但这些数据又用作政府要求进一步扩大生产量的基础。因此，政府给农民施加了更大的压力，从而从农村拿走更大份额的产出，使农村剩余的农产品更少。加上农村工业没有能给农业提供机械、工具、肥料和其它农用物资，以及劳动力普遍短缺和未经实践检验的农业种植方法的引进，加剧了农村问题。这些人为因素再加上当时恶劣的气候条件使农业生产出现了大幅度下降，从而导致粮食短缺。

1960年出版的《粮食与农业状况》提到人民公社出现的问题，同时还提出了解决的措施：“1959年8月，发现有必要对人民公社进行重组，因为向公社食堂供应的粮食已低于上年的水平，收入的过分集中意味着效率更高的生产队正在支撑着人民公社。小块的土地还给各个家庭用于栽种蔬菜，同时鼓励各个家庭养殖家畜以改善农村的粮食供应状况。”该报告中还暗示要放松人民公社和城镇公社组织制度中实行的其它规定。

 自给自足 

很多发展计划的共同特征是强调粮食的部分或者是完全自给，这常常是从战略角度考虑的。战争时期和战后的粮食短缺给很多国家留下了深刻的印象，确保粮食供应的重要性使得它们不相信过分地依赖进口。外汇支付困难又更进一步强化了这种担忧，各国不愿意将紧缺的外汇花在农产品进口上，外汇主要用于进口国家发展所需的主要设备。粮食自给自足成了大多数国家发展计划的标准特征，即使有时这种标准明显不切实际时也如此，除非成本极高或世界市场粮食供应充足的情况下才有例外。强调增加粮食生产和自给自足的观点，明显不同于由工业驱动的发展战略的反农业偏见，很多国家形成了模糊的政策环境。

隐藏在二十世纪五十年代强调自给自足背后的重要因素是这些年这些国家出现了支付危机，这段时期对各种商品的需求增长，尤其是在战争期间停止进口的地区和经济恢复很快的地区。由于北美是工农业商品的主要供应地，进口国都得支付美元，因此这些国家的其外汇很快就极为紧缺。很多粮食不能自足的国家，即使是有特许支付条件的国家和得到美国其他形式援助的国家都强迫缩减其全面进口和粮食进口。拉美国家还不得不强制执行严格的进口限制。

 农业过剩的问题 

《粮食与农业状况》密切地追踪着有些国家农业日益过剩的问题，在1954年这一期中作了广泛的报道，还特别提到了1953年的联合国粮农组织大会。在这次大会上讨论了粮食过剩所涉及的复杂问题，中心议题是如何在不扰乱国际农产品市场的情况下处理粮食过剩，如何在不增加粮食过剩的情况下保证与世界需求增长同步地扩大粮食生产。这次会议确定，在联合国粮食组织商品问题委员会下设立常务分会，以便就这个问题为政府间协商提供定期的论坛。利用过剩粮食缓解粮食紧张，促进发展。处理剩余粮食的概念的提出赢得了广泛的赞同，从而引出将粮食援助作为援助发展的一种形式。在这一期中还讨论了有些出口国家为了减少价格波动而采用的价格补偿方案，强调了通过国际商品协议来稳定粮食生产和粮食价格的意义，让出口国和进口国双方皆满意。

 重新评价非洲 

二十世纪五十年代末期起，本刊对非洲作了大量报道，1958年的《粮食与农业状况》报道了FAO专门针对南部非洲撒哈拉地区的粮食与农业发展研究，描绘了战争结束以来的农业生产状况。一般来说，马铃薯生产与人口增长同步，渔业生产比战前增长三倍，尽管有时出现严重的粮食短缺，尤其是在粮食收获前一段时间，但膳食水平大致与需求保持一致。非洲仍被看作是一个“空”的大陆，其人口只占世界的5%，每平方公里只有2个人，其面积与人口密度比例很高，由于是流动性耕种，因此难以保持土壤肥力，森林遭到极度破坏，从而对其水土资源带来严重的后果。

 森林

1958年的《粮食与农业状况》第四章的题目是“林业增长及其对世界森林的影响” 。本章综述了从林业发展初期到战后的巨大增长期间林业的发展历程。例如，战后10年间纸浆生产量翻了一番，1956年达到5600万吨，几次扩产对森林资源造成巨大的压力，但却低估了其影响。在这项研究中强调，世界森林能够满足需求，很多情况下，林业是森林最好的朋友。文中讲到：“在世界很多地方，森林规模化产业开发人员为森林养护和森林保护树立了光辉的榜样。”而在随后的几十年中，相反的观点又占了上风。

THE 1950s

.Recovery, Industrialization, Development planning
.Food self-sufficiency, Surpluses

.Reassessing Africa

Uneven recovery and bipolarism

Growing political and economic bipolarism characterized the 1950s. The "cold war" and ideological confrontation rendered international cooperation more problematic. At the same time, the gap between rich and poor countries and societies widened. The Marshall Plan and reconstruction activity contributed to a rapid economic recovery in war-affected countries in Western Europe while, by contrast, many economies in the developing world suffered from instability in agricultural markets, acute shortages of foreign exchange and, particularly in Asia, severe problems linked to the process of establishing newly independent political systems. During this period, the growing gap between rich and poor was mentioned repeatedly in The State of Food and Agriculture, which also emphasized the importance of agricultural development in improving the economic situation of countries and societies. For developing countriesto raise their living standards significantly, it was estimated that their food production would have to rise to between 1 and 2 percent above population growth. Such an increase in output, however, was felt to be beyond the resources and technological capacity of many developing countries.

Developing countries lacked the resources and technology with which to raise their living standards.

Industrialization

Industry-driven growth, already the cornerstone of many Latin American countries' development strategies, became the orthodox development paradigm during the 1950s. Thus, the phenomenon of "urban bias-agricultural discrimination" gained ground. There was direct discrimination against agriculture through policies, widely implemented by parastatal marketing boards, which drove a "wedge" between prices received by farmers and border prices of tradable commodities; and indirect discrimination arising from currency overvaluation that tended to depress prices of exportables and import substitutes, together with policies that protected industry and favoured industrial import substitution, thereby raising the prices of non-agricultural goods while reducing farmgate prices.

The industrial bias was based on the thesis that for an economy to develop, it had to grow rapidly, and to do so it had to industrialize. This view was reflected in the ample coverage of developments in industrial production found in early years of this publication, which introduced a regular section on this issue in the 1950s. Other than the fundamental ingredient of development, because of its positive effects on income growth, industrialization was also seen as the "basic factor behind effective purchasing power for farm production" (The State of Food and Agriculture1952). It was also recognized that, since industrialization involved urban migration, it would be necessary to keep food prices low in order to mitigate social hardship in the cities. Subsidies on agricultural inputs, such as fertilizers and machinery, and cheap credit were intended to compensate agriculture. However, these measures tended to benefit the larger commercial farms rather than small-scale peasant farming. "Cheap food" policies in favour of urban consumers heavily penalized the farm sector. Such policies endured in many countries until the 1980s when they were swept away in the process of structural adjustment.

Development planning

Partially as a result of the Great Depression of the early 1930s and the ensuing collapse of effective demand, which in turn led to calls for greater state intervention in the economy and in managing markets, development strategies involved a strong state role in the marketing of inputs and outputs and in the planning of production and the allocation of resources. The State of Food and Agriculture reported extensively on developments in programming and planning in agriculture, highlighting in particular the pioneering experiences of some Asian countries. It was felt that the vicious circle of low income, low consumption and stagnant production could only be broken by public sector planning and financing of agricultural and economic development. Planning typically involved the establishment of production targets, the programming of investment and even detailed schemes for land reclamation, irrigation and the provision of inputs.

India was singled out as a particular case for the degree to which it planned an integrated development of its mixed economy on the basis of self-help, yet without undue regimentation. State control was applied at strategic points in order to ensure that the pattern of development was in line with the objectives of India's first Five-Year Plan (1950/51-1955/56). The Plan envisaged important public financing of food and fibre production, with the objective of restoring pre-war levels of consumption and diverting any savings into investment for further economic development.

Another, more radical, example of state planning and intervention was that of China. Its first Five-Year Plan (1953-1957) was considered a success. Government investment in agriculture and industrial planning had reportedly increased GDP by 12 percent in real terms. In 1958, a new strategy was introduced, known as the "Great Leap Forward", in order to consolidate and reorganize rural agriculture and industry. The new strategy emphasized the adoption of new technologies in the countryside and the concomitant development of more rural-based light industry. It also involved the elimination of private rural property and the forced consolidation and collectivization of farms. The 1959 issue of this publication reported that, already by the end of 1958, more than 740 000 agricultural cooperatives in China had been transformed into 26 000 communes. Each contained some 2 000 families whose workload was divided between agricultural production and light industry.

However, although China's production increased significantly between 1957 and 1958, major problems emerged soon after. Production reports by the People's Communes were often overestimated, yet they served as a basis for the government's requests for increasing production quotas. Thus, government pressure on the peasantry to extract greater levels of output left rural communities with ever less of their production for their own consumption. The problem was compounded by the failure of rural industries to provide machinery, tools, fertilizer and other materials for agriculture as well as by widespread shortages of labour and the introduction of untested farming methods. These factors, coinciding with poor weather, contributed to a drastic reduction in agricultural production and led to food shortages.

The State of Food and Agriculture1960 made some reference to the problems occurring in the communes and reported on measures used to counter them: "A reorganization of the communes was found necessary in August 1959, as food supplies for the commune kitchens had fallen below the previous year's level, and as overcentralization with the pooling of all income had meant that the more efficient `brigades' were supporting the rest. Small plots were handed back to families for the cultivation of vegetables and the raising of poultry to improve rural food supplies." The report also alluded to the easing of other regulations that were enforced within the commune system and to the organization of urban communes.

Self-sufficiency

One common feature of many development plans was the emphasis on partial or total self-sufficiency in food, often motivated by strategic considerations. Wartime and postwar shortages had impressed on many countries the importance of assured food supplies and had made them mistrustful of too great a dependence on imports. These concerns were powerfully reinforced by payment difficulties and the reluctance to spend scarce foreign exchange on imports of agricultural products rather than on capital equipment needed for development. Food self-sufficiency (or "reasonable levels" of it) became a standard feature of most national development plans, even in cases where such an objective was clearly out of reach, except at extremely high costs and in situations of ample food supplies in world markets. The emphasis on increased food production and self-sufficiency, clearly at odds with the anti-agricultural bias of industry-driven development strategies, created ambiguous policy settings in many countries.

One important factor behind the emphasis on self-sufficiency in the early 1950s was the payments crisis that emerged in those years. This was a period of growing demand for goods of all kinds, especially from areas where imports had ceased during the war and where a vigorous process of recovery was under way. Because North America was the major supplier of industrial and agricultural goods, importers had to pay in dollars, which soon became scarce. Many deficit countries, even those receiving concessional payment terms and other forms of aid from the United States, were forced to curtail their overall and food imports. In particular, Latin American countries had to introduce severe import restrictions.

The problem of agricultural surpluses

The State of Food and Agriculture followed the problem of growing agricultural surpluses in some countries closely. It covered it extensively in 1954, referring in particular to the 1953 FAO Conference, which had discussed at length the complex issues involved. The central ones were: how to dispose of surpluses without disrupting world agricultural markets and what to do to ensure that production would expand in line with world requirements without adding to the surpluses. The Conference led to the establishment of a standing subcommittee of the FAO Committee on Commodity Problems (CCP) in order to provide a regular forum for intergovernmental consultations on these issues. The idea of using surplus food commodities to alleviate food emergencies and promote development - "surplus disposal" - gained ground and led to the introduction of food aid as a form of development assistance. This publication also discussed the price equalization schemes adopted by some exporting countries to attenuate price fluctuations, underlining the value of moving towards international commodity agreements to stabilize production and prices at a level that was satisfactory to both exporters and importers

Reassessing Africa

Africa began receiving ample coverage from this publication in the late 1950s. A special FAO study of food and agricultural development in Africa South of the Sahara was included in The State of Food and Agriculture 1958, which depicted a mixed record of agricultural performances since the conclusion of the war. In general, food production had kept pace with population growth, fish production had increased to three times its pre-war level, and dietary levels were considered by and large to be in line with requirements - despite cases of serious food shortages, especially in the periods preceding the harvests. While it was still regarded as an "empty" continent (with only 5 percent of the world's population and seven people/km² overall), Africa had areas of population density that were too high for the maintenance of soil fertility under shifting cultivation and its forest cover was being ruthlessly destroyed, with serious consequences for its soil and water resources.

Forests

Chapter IV of The State of Food and Agriculture 1958 was entitled The growth of forest industries and their impact on the world's forests. It reviewed the development of forest industries from their early stages through to their enormous growth in the postwar period. For instance, wood pulp production had doubled in the ten years following the war to reach 56 million tonnes in 1956. Such expansion imposed enormous pressure on forest resources, the effects of which were, however, grossly understated ("Tabloid educators have familiarized most people with the fact that 50 ha of forest is consumed by a single Sunday edition of a New York newspaper"). The study emphasized that the world's forests were adequate to meet these demands and that the forest industry was in many cases the best friend of forests. It stated that "in many parts of the world, large-scale industrial exploiters of the forest are today setting a shining example of forest care and conservation". Opposing views were to come to the fore in the following decades.