本文为加纳大学（作者：QUARCOO, MOSES ANUE）的硕士论文，共85页。

这项研究调查了2001年至2013年阿克拉Korle-Bu教学医院孕产妇死亡率的模式以及谱分析。还拟合了一个随机模型来预测四个季度的孕产妇死亡率。本文分析是基于阿克拉Korle-Bu教学医院妇产科理事会生物统计部2001-2013年期间的数据。数据分析采用R-Consol和SAS统计分析软件。据观察，在十三年期间，Korle Bu教学医院的平均产妇死亡率（MMR）为每10万活产835例，是全国每10万活产380例产妇死亡率的两倍多。月孕产妇死亡率数据的时间序列图清楚地显示了数据中具有恒定平均值和稳定方差的波动性聚集，因此被认为是平稳的。选择ARMA模型作为预测医院未来孕产妇死亡率的合适模型。该模型满足ARMA模型的所有条件，并用于预测未来四个季度的孕产妇死亡率（MMR）。利用序列周期图得到了对应的功率谱，并建议进行平滑处理。从统计学角度分析，孕产妇死亡率数据具有平坦分布，ARMA模型适合于预测孕产妇死亡率（MMR），孕产妇死亡功率谱具有平滑性。

This study examined the pattern of maternal mortality ratios as well as a spectral analysis of maternal mortality at the Korle - Bu Teaching Hospital in Accra from 2001 to 2013. It also fitted a stochastic model to forecast maternal mortality ratios for four quarters. Analyses were based on data available at the Bio-Statistics Department of the Obstetrics & Gynaecology directorate of the Korle - Bu Teaching Hospital in Accra for the period 2001 – 2013. The R-Consol statistical analysis software as well as the Statistical Analysis Software (SAS) was used in analysing the data. It was observed that the average Maternal MortalityRatio (MMR) in Korle-Bu Teaching Hospital over the Thirteen (13) year period was 835 per 100,000 live births, which is over twice that of the national’s MMR of 380 per 100,000 live births. The time series plot of the monthly maternal mortality ratio data clearly shows volatility clustering in the data with constant mean and stable variance and hence considered stationary. An ARMA model was selected as the appropriate model for predicting future maternal mortality ratios for the hospital. The model satisfied all conditions of a good ARMA model and was used to predict Maternal Mortality Ratios (MMRs) for the next four quarters. The power spectrum of the series was obtained using the periodogram plot of the series and suggests smoothing. We conclude statistically that the maternal mortality ratio data has a platykurtic distribution, an ARMA model is adequate for forecasting Maternal Mortality Ratios (MMRs) and the power spectrum of maternal deaths has smoothing.

1.       引言

2. 文献回顾

3. 研究方法

4. 结果与讨论

5. 总结、结论与建议

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